Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022
Research article
 | 
25 Jan 2022
Research article |  | 25 Jan 2022

Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic

Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa

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Cited articles

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Akaike, H.: Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle, in: Selected papers of hirotugu akaike, Springer, 199–213, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1694-0_15, 1998. a
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Barsotti, S., Di Rienzo, D. I., Thordarson, T., Björnsson, B. B., and Karlsdóttir, S.: Assessing impact to infrastructures due to tephra fallout from Öræfajökull volcano (Iceland) by using a scenario-based approach and a numerical model, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 196, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00196, 2018. a
Blischke, A., Gaina, C., Hopper, J., Péron-Pinvidic, G., Brandsdóttir, B., Guarnieri, P., Erlendsson, Ö., and Gunnarsson, K.: The Jan Mayen microcontinent: an update of its architecture, structural development and role during the transition from the Ægir Ridge to the mid-oceanic Kolbeinsey Ridge, Geol. Soc. Lond. Spec. Publ., 447, 299–337, 2017. a
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This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
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