Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jan 2022
Research article |
| 25 Jan 2022
| 25 Jan 2022
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), Reykjavík, Iceland
Beatriz Martínez Montesinos
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Sara Barsotti
Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), Reykjavík, Iceland
Laura Sandri
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Arnau Folch
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Geociencias Barcelona, Consejo Superior Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
Leonardo Mingari
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Giovanni Macedonio
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Sezione di Napoli, Naples, Italy
Antonio Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
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In this work we provide a 2D finite-element modelling of the stress field conditions around the Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) in order to test the response of the commercial Linear Static Analysis software to increasingly different geological constraints. Results suggest that an appropriate set of geological and geophysical data improves the mesh generation procedures and the degree of accuracy of numerical outputs, aimed at more reliable physics-based representations of the natural system.
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Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a...
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