Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2523–2541, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2523–2541, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021

Research article 25 Aug 2021

Research article | 25 Aug 2021

Towards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: chasing the Supercyclone Amphan

Md. Jamal Uddin Khan et al.

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Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Cited articles

Ahsan, M. N., Khatun, A., Islam, M. S., Vink, K., Ohara, M., and Fakhruddin, B. S.: Preferences for improved early warning services among coastal communities at risk in cyclone prone south-west region of Bangladesh, Progress in Disaster Science, 5, 100065, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100065, 2020. a
Alam, E. and Dominey-Howes, D.: A new catalogue of tropical cyclones of the northern Bay of Bengal and the distribution and effects of selected landfalling events in Bangladesh, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 801–835, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4035, 2014. a, b
Ali, A.: Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh, Clim. Res., 12, 109–116, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr012109, 1999. a, b
Antony, C. and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Observed characteristics of tide-surge interaction along the east coast of India and the head of Bay of Bengal, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 131, 6–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2013.08.004, 2013. a, b
Antony, C., Unnikrishnan, A., Krien, Y., Murty, P., Samiksha, S., and Islam, A.: Tide–surge interaction at the head of the Bay of Bengal during Cyclone Aila, Regional Studies in Marine Science, 35, 101133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2020.101133, 2020. a
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The Bay of Bengal is well known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved and computationally costly. Here we show a proof of concept of a real-time, computationally efficient, and physically consistent forecasting system with an application to the recent Supercyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.
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