Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021

Special issue: Advances in extreme value analysis and application to natural...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021

Research article 26 Apr 2021

Research article | 26 Apr 2021

Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

Nadezhda Kudryavtseva et al.

Related authors

Variability of distributions of wave set-up heights along a shoreline with complicated geometry
Tarmo Soomere, Katri Pindsoo, Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, and Maris Eelsalu
Ocean Sci., 16, 1047–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1047-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1047-2020, 2020
Short summary
Satellite altimetry reveals spatial patterns of variations in the Baltic Sea wave climate
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva and Tarmo Soomere
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 697–706, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-697-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-697-2017, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
Short summary
The Mw 7.5 Tadine (Maré, Loyalty Islands) earthquake and related tsunami of 5 December 2018: seismotectonic context and numerical modeling
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Maxime Duphil, Jérôme Lefèvre, Jérôme Aucan, Pierre Lebellegard, Bruce Thomas, Céline Bachelier, and David Varillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3489–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3489-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3489-2021, 2021
Short summary
Tidal flood area mapping in the face of climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary in the Brazilian semi-arid region
Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Leonlene S. Aguiar, Caio C. Lima, and Alexandre B. Lopes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021, 2021
Short summary
Distribution of coastal high water level during extreme events around the UK and Irish coasts
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
Short summary
Occurrence of pressure-forced meteotsunami events in the eastern Yellow Sea during 2010–2019
Myung-Seok Kim, Seung-Buhm Woo, Hyunmin Eom, and Sung Hyup You
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3323–3337, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3323-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3323-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Andersson, H. C.: Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic Sea level, Tellus A, 54, 76–88, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i1.12125, 2002. 
Astok, V., Otsmann, M., and Suursaar, Ü.: Water exchange as the main physical process in semi-enclosed marine systems: the Gulf of Riga case, Hydrobiologia, 393, 11–18, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003517110726, 1999. 
Averkiev, A. S. and Klevannyy, K. A.: A case study of the impact of cyclonic trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland, Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 707–714, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.10.010, 2010. 
Bardet, L., Duluc, C.-M., Rebour, V., and L'Her, J.: Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges along the French coast, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1627–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1627-2011, 2011. 
Brönnimann, S.: Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on European climate, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000199, 2007. 
Download
Short summary
We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint