Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 04 Feb 2020
| 04 Feb 2020
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473
Potsdam, Germany
Thomas R. Walter
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473
Potsdam, Germany
Stefan Bredemeyer
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473
Potsdam, Germany
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24148 Kiel, Germany
Martin Zimmer
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473
Potsdam, Germany
Christian Kujawa
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473
Potsdam, Germany
Luis Franco Marin
Observatorio Volcanológico de Los Andes del Sur (OVDAS), Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), Temuco, Chile
Juan San Martin
Physics Science Department, Universidad de la Frontera, Casilla 54-D, Temuco, Chile
Claudia Bucarey Parra
Observatorio Volcanológico de Los Andes del Sur (OVDAS), Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), Temuco, Chile
Related authors
No articles found.
Daniel Müller, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, Jessica Stammeier, Andreas Karlsson, Erica de Paolo, Antonino Fabio Pisciotta, Martin Zimmer, and Benjamin De Jarnatt
Solid Earth, 15, 1155–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-1155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-1155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use uncrewed-aerial-system-derived optical and infrared data, mineralogical and geochemical analyses of rock samples, and surface degassing measurements to analyze degassing and hydrothermal alteration at the fumaroles of the La Fossa cone, Vulcano island, Italy. We give a detailed view of associated structures and dynamics, such as local alteration gradients, diffuse active units that significantly contribute to the total activity, or effects of permeability reduction and surface sealing.
Stefan Bredemeyer, Jeoung Seok Yoon, Linmao Xie, and Jeong-Hwan Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2674, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Siting of deep geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel requires large volumes of intact rock, which must not be damaged due to seismic activity in order to ensure safe containment of the toxic waste. Here we present an approach to identify large-scale fractures in Earth's surface, which may rupture in the event of future earthquakes and defined safety zones around the fractures in which a deep geological repository for storage of spent nuclear fuel should not be built.
Daniel Basualto, Andrés Tassara, Jonathan Lazo-Gil, Luis Franco-Marin, Carlos Cardona, Juan San Martín, Fernando Gil-Cruz, Marcela Calabi-Floddy, and Cristian Farías
Solid Earth, 14, 69–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-14-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-14-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Infrequent eruptions of acidic magma are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena, but almost none of them have been witnessed by modern science. We present the first systematic characterization of seismicity recorded near an erupting acidic volcano (Cordón Caulle 2011). We define different phases of unrest and eruption, which combined with previous findings allows us to discuss the main processes associated with this type of violent eruption, with implications for their volcanic hazard.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Santiago Arellano, Bo Galle, Fredy Apaza, Geoffroy Avard, Charlotte Barrington, Nicole Bobrowski, Claudia Bucarey, Viviana Burbano, Mike Burton, Zoraida Chacón, Gustavo Chigna, Christian Joseph Clarito, Vladimir Conde, Fidel Costa, Maarten De Moor, Hugo Delgado-Granados, Andrea Di Muro, Deborah Fernandez, Gustavo Garzón, Hendra Gunawan, Nia Haerani, Thor H. Hansteen, Silvana Hidalgo, Salvatore Inguaggiato, Mattias Johansson, Christoph Kern, Manne Kihlman, Philippe Kowalski, Pablo Masias, Francisco Montalvo, Joakim Möller, Ulrich Platt, Claudia Rivera, Armando Saballos, Giuseppe Salerno, Benoit Taisne, Freddy Vásconez, Gabriela Velásquez, Fabio Vita, and Mathieu Yalire
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1167–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1167-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a dataset of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from 2005–2017. Measurements were obtained by Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC) scanning differential optical absorption spectrometer (ScanDOAS) instruments at 32 volcanoes and processed using a standardized procedure. We show statistics of volcanic gas emissions under a variety of conditions and compare them with averages derived from measurements from space and historical inventories.
Melissa Präg, Ivy Becker, Christoph Hilgers, Thomas R. Walter, and Michael Kühn
Adv. Geosci., 54, 165–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Utilization of geothermal reservoirs as alternative energy source is becoming increasingly important worldwide. Here, we studied the surface expression of a warm water reservoir in Waiwera, New Zealand, that has been known for many centuries but remained little explored. Using thermal infrared cameras we were able to show renewed activity of the hot springs on the beachfront and identified faults and fractures as important fluid pathways, as well as individual fluid conducting lithologies.
Bettina Strauch, Martin Zimmer, and Rik Tjallingii
Adv. Geosci., 49, 149–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-149-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-149-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Salt caverns are important as subsurface storage space. Knowledge of geochemical interactions in the transition zone between cavity and salt rock is necessary. Lab-based experiments were performed in hand-sized specimens by creating cm-sized cavities. XRF mapping represents a suitable technique to track spatial mineralogical changes related to rock-fluid interaction in salt rocks and showed a clear separation between Na, Mg and K salt layers. Fluorescent visualize potential fluid pathways.
Robert A. Watson, Eoghan P. Holohan, Djamil Al-Halbouni, Leila Saberi, Ali Sawarieh, Damien Closson, Hussam Alrshdan, Najib Abou Karaki, Christian Siebert, Thomas R. Walter, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 1451–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1451-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1451-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fall of the Dead Sea level since the 1960s has provoked the formation of over 6000 sinkholes, a major hazard to local economy and infrastructure. In this context, we study the evolution of subsidence phenomena at three area scales at the Dead Sea’s eastern shore from 1967–2017. Our results yield the most detailed insights to date into the spatio-temporal development of sinkholes and larger depressions (uvalas) in an evaporite karst setting and emphasize a link to the falling Dead Sea level.
Florian Dinger, Stefan Bredemeyer, Santiago Arellano, Nicole Bobrowski, Ulrich Platt, and Thomas Wagner
Solid Earth, 10, 725–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-725-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-725-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Evidence for tidal impacts on volcanism have been gathered by numerous empirical studies. This paper elucidates whether a causal link from the tidal forces to a variation in the volcanic degassing can be traced analytically. We model the response of a simplified magmatic system to the local tidal gravity variations, find that the tide-induced dynamics may significantly alter the bubble coalescence rate, and discuss the consequences for volcanic degassing behaviour.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Bettina Strauch, Martin Zimmer, Axel Zirkler, Stefan Höntzsch, and Anja M. Schleicher
Adv. Geosci., 45, 227–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-45-227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-45-227-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of humidity and gas (CO2, N2, CH4) on saliniferous mineral compositions was studied and show dissolution-recrystallization reactions involving halite, sylvite, kieserite, carnallite and kainite. CO2 causes acidification of the aqueous phase which enhances dissolution rate and reaction kinetics. These simulations allow for the evaluation of the interachtion between and host rock and fillings along the walls of storage caverns in salt deposits.
Florian Dinger, Nicole Bobrowski, Simon Warnach, Stefan Bredemeyer, Silvana Hidalgo, Santiago Arellano, Bo Galle, Ulrich Platt, and Thomas Wagner
Solid Earth, 9, 247–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-247-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We monitored the bromine monoxide-to-sulfur dioxide molar ratio in the effusive gas plume of Cotopaxi volcano in order to gain insight into the geological processes which control the pressure regime of the volcanic system. We observed a conspicuous periodic pattern with a periodicity of about 2 weeks, which significantly correlates with the Earth tidal forcing. Our results support a possible Earth tidal impact on volcanic activity, in particular for the Cotopaxi eruption 2015.
Elena Nikolaeva and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2137–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2137-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The study of active faults is relevant to estimate the seismic hazard of the surrounding area and relies on different methods. In the last decade interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques have proved to be robust tools to investigate the surface deformation caused by earthquakes. We used the multi-temporal ALOS L-band InSAR data to produce interferograms spanning times before and after the 2009 earthquake (Mw = 6.0) in the Racha region (Georgia).
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
M. Pantaleo and T. R. Walter
Solid Earth, 5, 183–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-183-2014, 2014
E. Nikolaeva, T.R. Walter, M. Shirzaei, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 675–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-675-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-675-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
Estimating the mass of tephra accumulated on roads to best manage the impact of volcanic eruptions: the example of Mt Etna, Italy
Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea, 2018
Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand
Cities near volcanoes: Which cities are most exposed to volcanic hazards?
Geophysical fingerprint of the 4–11 July 2024 eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano, Italy
Automating tephra fall building damage assessment using deep learning
Where will the next flank eruption at Etna occur? An updated spatial probabilistic assessment
Long-term hazard of pyroclastic density currents at Vesuvius (Southern Italy) with maps of impact parameters
Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions
“More poison than words can describe”: what did people die of after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland?
The 1538 eruption at Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera: implications for future unrest and eruptive scenarios
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Luigi Mereu, Manuel Stocchi, Alexander Garcia, Michele Prestifilippo, Laura Sandri, Costanza Bonadonna, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1943-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1943-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By considering the quantification of tephra mass deposited on roads following an eruption (or a series of explosive volcanic eruptions), in this work we assessed the cumulated tephra mass on the road networks in three selected towns on Mt Etna’s eastern flank during several paroxysms in 2021. This is a first attempt to estimate the amount of tephra that must be removed during a crisis that could be reused, converting in this way a potential problem into an opportunity.
James Hickey, James Young, Michelle Spruce, Ravi Pandit, Hywel Williams, Rudy Arthur, Wendy Stovall, and Matthew Head
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology. Analysing social media usage during volcanic crises can help us better understand the impacts of volcanic eruptions and how warning messages are received and actioned, to eventually better protect those people and their livelihoods. Our work shows how social media data could be used in real time during a volcanic crisis to learn more about volcanic eruptions.
Nicola J. McDonald, Leslie Dowling, Emily P. Harvey, Alana M. Weir, Mark S. Bebbington, Nam Bui, Christina Magill, Heather M. Craig, Garry W. McDonald, Juan J. Monge, Shane J. Cronin, Thomas M. Wilson, and Duncan Walker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1543–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we develop a model to quantify the future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand. We use the model to simulate 10 000 possible volcanic futures and collate results into risk-type metrics. The results highlight the variation in risk exposure across farms and show that volcanic risk should play an important role in shaping the future of Taranaki’s dairy sector. This model could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts.
Elinor S. Meredith, Rui Xue Natalie Teng, Susanna F. Jenkins, Josh L. Hayes, Sébastien Biass, and Heather Handley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-219, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Cities near volcanoes expose populations to hazards. We ranked 1,106 cities by population exposed to volcanoes <100 km, nearest distance, and number of, nearby volcanoes. Bandung ranks highest with ~8 M exposed <30 km of 12 volcanoes. Jakarta leads population exposed <100 km (~38 M). Central America has the highest proportion of city exposure, with San Salvador near 23 volcanoes. We provide a global city exposure perspective, identifying areas for localised mitigation.
Luciano Zuccarello, Duccio Gheri, Silvio De Angelis, Riccardo Civico, Tullio Ricci, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On July 11, 2024, Stromboli erupted violently, generating a volcanic ash column and pyroclastic flows along the Sciara del Fuoco. The event followed intense explosions, ongoing lava flows, and crater rim collapses. A multiparametric analysis using seismo-acoustic, and drone data was conducted to reconstruct the eruption's key features, estimate material loss, and document summit morphology changes, aiming to improve understanding of eruption processes and enhance forecasting and risk management.
Eleanor Tennant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Victoria Miller, Richard Robertson, Bihan Wen, Sang-Ho Yun, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4585–4608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After a volcanic eruption, assessing building damage quickly is important for responding to and recovering from the disaster. Traditional damage assessment methods such as ground surveys can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, hindering rapid response and recovery efforts. To overcome this, we have developed an automated approach for tephra fall building damage assessment. Our approach uses drone-acquired optical images and deep learning to rapidly generate building damage data.
Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4431–4455, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
Pierfrancesco Dellino, Fabio Dioguardi, Roberto Sulpizio, and Daniela Mele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pyroclastic deposits are the only records left by pyroclastic flows at Vesuvius, deposits from past eruptions are the only way to get hints about the expected range of impact parameters. It is necessary to investigate the deposits first, then define a general model of the current that links deposit characteristics to flow dynamics, and finally reconstruct the impact parameters that better represent flow intensity in terms of damaging potential. This is the way the paper is organized.
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter (now X) posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show that even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people. Earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact, but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Giuseppe Rolandi, Claudia Troise, Marco Sacchi, Massimo Di Lascio, and Giuseppe De Natale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2035, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compare recent unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Italy), with phenomena occurred during the historical eruption in 1538. Besides proposing a new, accurate reconstruction of the ground movements in the area since VIII century BC, we deduce a striking similarity of the present unrest with the precursors to the 1538 eruption. We then infer that, if the ground uplift continues, earthquakes up to magnitude 5 are expected, as well as a considerable eruption risk in the next decades.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Cited articles
Aguilera, F., Viramonte, J., Medina, E., Guzmán, K., Becchio, R., Delgado, H., and Arnosio, M.: Recent eruptive activity from lascar volcano (2006), in: 11th Chilean Geological Congress, Universidad Católica del Norte, Antofagasta, Natofagasta, 393–396, 2006.
Albino, F., Pinel, V., and Sigmundsson, F.: Influence of surface load
variations on eruption likelihood: Application to two Icelandic subglacial
volcanoes, Grímsvötn and Katla, Geophys. J. Int., 181, 1510–1524, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04603.x, 2010.
Barberi, F., Bertagnini, A., Landi, P., and Principe, C.: A review on phreatic eruptions and their precursors, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 52, 231–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(92)90046-G, 1992.
Bredemeyer, S. and Hansteen, T. H.: Synchronous degassing patterns of the
neighbouring volcanoes Llaima and Villarrica in south-central Chile: the
influence of tidal forces, Int. J. Earth Sci., 103, 1999–2012,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-014-1029-2, 2014.
Bredemeyer, S., Ulmer, F. G., Hansteen, T. H., and Walter, T. R.: Radar path
delay effects in volcanic gas plumes: The case of Láscar Volcano, Northern Chile, Remote Sens., 10, 1514, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101514, 2018.
Brook, M. and Moore, C. B.: Lightning in volcanic clouds, J. Geophys. Res.,
79, 472–475, 1974.
Carn, S. A., Watts, R. B., Thompson, G., and Norton, G. E.: Anatomy of a lava
dome collapse: The 20 March 2000 event at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 131, 241–264, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00364-0, 2004.
Çetin, A. E., Dimitropoulos, K., Gouverneur, B., Grammalidis, N., Günay, O., Habiboglu, Y. H., Töreyin, B. U., and Verstockt, S.: Video
fire detection – Review, Digit. Signal Process., 23, 1827–1843,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.DSP.2013.07.003, 2013.
Chouet, B., Hamisevicz, N., and McGetchin, T. R.: Photoballistics of volcanic jet activity at Stromboli, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 79, 4961–4976, https://doi.org/10.1029/jb079i032p04961, 1974.
Chouet, B. A.: Long-period volcano seismicity: its source and use in eruption forecasting, Nature, 380, 309–316, https://doi.org/10.1038/380309a0, 1996.
Christenson, B. W., Reyes, A. G., Young, R., Moebis, A., Sherburn, S.,
Cole-Baker, J., and Britten, K.: Cyclic processes and factors leading to
phreatic eruption events: Insights from the 25 September 2007 eruption through Ruapehu Crater Lake, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 191, 15–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.01.008, 2010.
Darmawan, H., Walter, T. R., and Brotopuspito, K. S.: Subandriyo and I Gusti
Made Agung Nandaka: Morphological and structural changes at the Merapi lava
dome monitored in 2012–15 using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 349, 256–267, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.11.006, 2018a.
Darmawan, H., Walter, T. R., Troll, V. R., and Budi-Santoso, A.: Structural
weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the
2010 eruption, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018b.
de Moor, J. M., Aiuppa, A., Pacheco, J., Avard, G., Kern, C., Liuzzo, M.,
Martínez, M., Giudice, G., and Fischer, T. P.: Short-period volcanic gas
precursors to phreatic eruptions: Insights from Poás Volcano, Costa Rica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 442, 218–227, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.056, 2016.
de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, E., Richter, N., González, G., and Walter, T. R.:
Geomorphology and structural development of the nested summit crater of
Láscar Volcano studied with Terrestrial Laser Scanner data and analogue
modelling, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 329, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.09.018, 2017.
Díaz, D., Brasse, H., and Ticona, F.: Conductivity distribution beneath
Lascar volcano (Northern Chile) and the Puna, inferred from magnetotelluric
data, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 217–218, 21–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2011.12.007, 2012.
Elsworth, D., Voight, B., Thompson, G., and Young, S. R.: Thermal-hydrologic
mechanism for rainfall-triggered collapse of lava domes, Geology, 32, 969, https://doi.org/10.1130/G20730.1, 2004.
Francis, P. W. and Rothery, D. A.: Using the Landsat Thematic Mapper to detect and monitor active volcanoes: An example from Lascar volcano,
northern Chile, Geology, 15, 614–617,
https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1987)15<614:UTLTMT>2.0.CO;2, 1987.
Gaete, A., Cesca, S., Franco, L., San Martin, J., Cartes, C., and Walter, T.
R.: Seismic activity during the 2013–2015 intereruptive phase at Lascar volcano, Chile, Geophys. J. Int., 219, 449–463, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz297,
2019.
Galle, B., Johansson, M., Rivera, C., Zhang, Y., Kihlman, M., Kern, C., Lehmann, T., Platt, U., Arellano, S., and Hidalgo, S.: Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC) – A global network
for volcanic gas monitoring: Network layout and instrument description, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D05304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011823, 2010.
Gardeweg, M., Amigo, A., Matthews, S., Sparks, R., and Clavero, J.: Geología del volcán Láscar, Región de Antofagasta, Carta Geológica de Chile, Serie Geología Básica 131, p. 43, 1 mapa escala 1:50.000, Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Santiago, 2011.
Gardeweg, M. C., Sparks, R. S. J., and Matthews, S. J.: Evolution of Lascar
Volcano, Northern Chile, J. Geol. Soc. Lond., 155, 89–104, https://doi.org/10.1144/gsjgs.155.1.0089, 1998.
Girona, T., Costa, F., Taisne, B., Aggangan, B.m and Ildefonso, S.: Fractal
degassing from Erebus and Mayon volcanoes revealed by a new method to monitor H2O emission cycles, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 120, 2988–3002,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ 2014JB011797, 2015.
Global Volcanism Program: Report on Lascar (Chile), edited by: Wunderman, R., Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network 19, Smithsonian Institution, https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.BGVN199401-355100, 1994.
Global Volcanism Program: Lascar (355100) in Volcanoes of the World, v. 4.8.5, edited by: Venzke, E., Smithsonian Institution, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.VOTW4-2013, 2013.
Global Volcanism Program: Report on Lascar (Chile), edited by: Crafford, A. E. and Venzke, E., Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network 41, Smithsonian Institution, https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.BGVN201607-355100, 2016.
González, C., Inostroza, M., Aguilera, F., González, R., Viramonte, J., and Menzies, A.: Heat and mass flux measurements using Landsat images
from the 2000–2004 period, Lascar volcano, northern Chile, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 301, 277–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.05.009, 2015.
González, D. M., Bataille, K., Eulenfeld, T., and Franco, L. E.: Temporal
seismic wave velocity variations at Láscar volcano, Andean Geol., 43,
240–246, https://doi.org/10.5027/andgeoV43n2-a05, 2016.
González-Ferrán, O.: Volcanes de Chile, Instituto Geografico Militar, Santiago, Chile, 1995.
Healey, G., Slater, D., Lin, T., Drda, B., and Goedeke, A. D.: A system for
real-time fire detection, Proc. IEEE Conf. Comput. Vis. Pattern Recognit., 93, 15–17, https://doi.org/10.1109/CVPR.1993.341064, 1993.
Heap, M. J., Troll, V. R., Kushnir, A. R. L., Gilg, H. A., Collinson, A. S. D., Deegan, F. M., Darmawan, H., Seraphine, N., Neuberg, J., and Walter, T. R.: Hydrothermal alteration of andesitic lava domes can lead to explosive
volcanic behaviour, Nat. Commun., 10, 5063, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13102-8, 2019.
Hellweg, M.: Physical models for the source of Lascar's harmonic tremor, J.
Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 101, 183–198, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(00)00163-3, 2000.
Hicks, P. D., Matthews, A. J., and Cooker, M. J.: Triggering of a volcanic
dome collapse by rainwater infiltration, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 115, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JB006831, 2010.
Jolly, A. D., Sherburn, S., Jousset, P., and Kilgour, G.: Eruption source
processes derived from seismic and acoustic observations of the 25 September 2007 Ruapehu eruption-North Island, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 191, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.01.009, 2010.
Jordan, T. E., Isacks, B. L., Allmendinger, R. W., Brewer, J. A., Ramos, V. A., and Ando, C. J.: Andean tectonics related to geometry of subducted Nazca
plate, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 94, 341–361, https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1983)94<341:ATRTGO>2.0.CO;2, 1983.
Kato, A., Terakawa, T., Yamanaka, Y., Maeda, Y., Horikawa, S., Matsuhiro, K.,
and Okuda, T.: Preparatory and precursory processes leading up to the 2014 phreatic eruption of Mount Ontake, Japan, Earth Planets Space, 67, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0288-x, 2015.
Kawakatsu, H., Kaneshima, S., Matsubayashi, H., Ohminato, T., Sudo, Y., Tsutsui, T., Uhira, K., Yamasato, H., Ito, H., and Legrand, D.: Aso94: Aso
seismic observation with broadband instruments, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 101, 129–154, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(00)00166-9, 2000.
Kern, C., Deutschmann, T., Vogel, L., Wöhrbach, M., Wagner, T., and Platt, U.: Radiative transfer corrections for accurate spectroscopic
measurements of volcanic gas emissions, Bull. Volcanol., 72, 233–247,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-009-0313-7, 2010.
Lahr, J. C., Chouet, B. A., Stephens, C. D., Power, J. A., and Page, R. A.:
Earthquake classification, location, and error analysis in a volcanic
environment: implications for the magmatic system of the 1989–1990 eruptions
at redoubt volcano, Alaska, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 62, 137–151,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(94)90031-0, 1994.
Le Guern, F., Tazieff, H., and Pierret, R. F.: An example of health hazard:
People killed by gas during a phreatic eruption: Diëng plateau (Java,
Indonesia), February 20th 1979, Bull. Volcanol., 45, 153–156,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02600430, 1982.
Martinelli, B.: Analysis of seismic patterns observed at Nevado del Ruiz
volcano, Colombia during August–September 1985, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 41, 297–314, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(90)90093-U, 1990.
Mason, B. G., Pyle, D. M., Dade, W. B., and Jupp, T.: Seasonality of volcanic
eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 109, B04206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB002293, 2004.
Mastin, L. G.: Thermodynamics of gas and steam-blast eruptions, Bull. Volcanol., 57, 85–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00301399, 1995.
Matthews, A. J. and Barclay, J.: A thermodynamical model for rainfall-triggered volcanic dome collapse, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L05614,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl019310, 2004.
Matthews, A. J., Barclay, J., Carn, S., Thompson, G., Alexander, J., Herd, R., and Williams, C.: Rainfall-induced volcanic activity on Montserrat, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1644, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL014863, 2002.
Matthews, S. J., Gardeweg, M. C., and Sparks, R. S. J.: The 1984 to 1996 cyclic activity of Lascar Volcano, northern Chile: Cycles of dome growth, dome subsidence, degassing and explosive eruptions, Bull. Volcanol., 59, 72–82, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450050176, 1997.
Menard, G., Moune, S., Vlastélic, I., Aguilera, F., Valade, S., Bontemps, M. and Gonzáález, R.: Gas and aerosol emissions from Lascar volcano (Northern Chile): Insights into the origin of gases and their links with the volcanic activity, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 287, 51–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.09.004, 2014.
Messerli, B., Grosjean, M., Bonani, G., Burgi, A., Geyh, M. A., Graf, K.,
Ramseyer, K., Romero, H., Schotterer, U., Schreier, H., and Vuille, M.: Climate Change and Natural Resource Dynamics of the Atacama Altiplano during
the Last 18,000 Years: A Preliminary Synthesis, Mt. Res. Dev., 13, 117–127, https://doi.org/10.2307/3673629, 1993.
Mori, T., Mori, T., Kazahaya, K., Ohwada, M., Hirabayashi, J., and Yoshikawa,
S.: Effect of UV scattering on SO2 emission rate measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17315, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026285, 2006.
Munoz-Saez, C., Namiki, A., and Manga, M.: Geyser eruption intervals and
interactions: Examples from El Tatio, Atacama, Chile, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid,
120, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012364, 2015.
Nakamichi, H., Kumagai, H., Nakano, M., Okubo, M., Kimata, F., Ito, Y., and
Obara, K.: Source mechanism of a very-long-period event at Mt Ontake, central Japan: Response of a hydrothermal system to magma intrusion beneath the summit, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 187, 167–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.09.006, 2009.
Newhall, C. G., Albano, S. E., Matsumoto, N., and Sandoval, T.: Roles of
groundwater in volcanic unrest, J. Geol. Soc. Philipp., 56, 69–84, 2001.
Oikawa, T., Yoshimoto, M., Nakada, S., Maeno, F., Komori, J., Shimano, T., Takeshita, Y., Ishizuka, Y., and Ishimine, Y.: Reconstruction of the 2014 eruption sequence of Ontake Volcano from recorded images and interviews, Earth Planet Space, 68, 79, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0458-5, 2016.
ONEMI, O. N. de E.: Se declara Alerta Amarilla para la Región de
Antofagasta por nucleo frio en altura, October 18th, 2015, available at:
http://www.onemi.cl/alerta/se-declara-alerta-temprana-preventiva-para-la-region-de
(last access: 18 March 2019), 2015.
Orr, T. R., and Hoblitt, R. P.: A versatile time-lapse camera system developed by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory for use at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i, US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5117, US Geological Survey, p. 8, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20085117, 2008.
OVDAS, O. V. de los A. del S.: Reporte de Actividad Volcánica (RAV) –
Región de Antofagasta, Temuco, Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), Temuco, 2015.
Paskievitch, J., Read, C., and Parker, T.: Remote telemetered and time-lapse cameras at Augustine Volcano: Chapter 12 in The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1769-12, US Geological Survey, 285–293, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp176912, 2010.
Patanè, D., Di Grazia, G., Cannata, A., Montalto, P., and Boschi, E.:
Shallow magma pathway geometry at Mt. Etna volcano, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 9, Q12021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GC002131, 2008.
Pavez, A., Remy, D., Bonvalot, S., Diament, M., Gabalda, G., Froger, J. L.,
Julien, P., Legrand, D., and Moisset, D.: Insight into ground deformations at
Lascar volcano (Chile) from SAR interferometry, photogrammetry and GPS data:
Implications on volcano dynamics and future space monitoring, Remote Sens.
Environ., 100, 307–320, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2005.10.013, 2006.
Platt, U. and Stutz, J.: Differential Absorption Spectroscopy, in: Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 135–174, 2008.
Richter, G., Wassermann, J., Zimmer, M., and Ohrnberger, M.: Correlation of
seismic activity and fumarole temperature at the Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in 2000, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 135, 331–342,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2004.03.006, 2004.
Richter, N., Salzer, J. T., de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, E., Perissin, D., and Walter, T. R.: Constraints on the geomorphological evolution of the nested
summit craters of Láscar volcano from high spatio-temporal resolution
TerraSAR-X interferometry, Bull. Volcanol., 80, 21, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-018-1195-3, 2018.
Rouwet, D., Sandri, L., Marzocchi, W., Gottsmann, J., Selva, J., Tonini, R.,
and Papale, P.: Recognizing and tracking volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest: A review, J. Appl. Volcanol., 3, 17, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-014-0017-3, 2014.
Salzer, J. T., Thelen, W. A., James, M. R., Walter, T. R., Moran, S., and
Denlinger, R.: Volcano dome dynamics at Mount St. Helens: Deformation and
intermittent subsidence monitored by seismicity and camera imagery pixel
offsets, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 121, 7882–7902, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013045, 2016.
Scarpa, R. and Tilling, R. I.: Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards,
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2012.
Sens-Schönfelder, C. and Wegler, U.: Passive image interferemetry and
seasonal variations of seismic velocities at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027797, 2006.
Siebert, L., Simkin, T., and Kimberly, P.: Volcanoes of the world, Smithsonian Institution, available at:
https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520268777/volcanoes-of-the-world (last access: 27 May 2019), 2010.
Sparks, R. S. J.: Forecasting volcanic eruptions, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 210, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00124-9, 2003.
Stix, J. and de Moor, J. M.: Understanding and forecasting phreatic eruptions driven by magmatic degassing, Earth Planets Space, 70, 83, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-018-0855-z, 2018.
Tamburello, G., Hansteen, T. H., Bredemeyer, S., Aiuppa, A., and Tassi, F.: Gas emissions from five volcanoes in northern Chile and implications for the volatiles budget of the Central Volcanic Zone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4961–4969, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060653, 2014.
Tassi, F., Aguilera, F., Vaselli, O., Medina, E., Tedesco, D., Delgado Huertas, A., Poreda, R., and Kojima, S.: The magmatic- and
hydrothermal-dominated fumarolic system at the Active Crater of Lascar volcano, northern Chile, Bull. Volcanol., 71, 171–183, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0216-z, 2009.
Tokarev, P. I.: On a possibility of forecasting of bezymianny volcano eruptions according to seismic data, Bull. Volcanol., 26, 379–386,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02597299, 1963.
Vandaele, A. C., Simon, P. C., Guilmot, J. M., Carleer, M., and Colin, R.:
SO2 absorption cross section measurement in the UV using a Fourier transform spectrometer, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 25599, https://doi.org/10.1029/94jd02187, 1994.
Verstockt, S., Lambert, P., Van De Walle, R., Merci, B., and Sette, B.: State
of the art in vision-based fire and smoke detection, Proc. 14th Int. Conf.
Autom. Fire Detect., 2, 285–292, 2009.
Viramonte, J., Aguilera, F., Delgado, H., Rodriguez, L., Guzman, K., Jimenez, J., and Becchio, R.: A new eruptive cycle of Lascar Volcano (Chile): the risk for the aeronavigation in northern Argentina, in: Garavolcan 2006, 22–26 May 2006, Tenerife, Spain, 2006.
Voigt, S., Orphal, J., Bogumil, K., and Burrows, J. P.: The temperature
dependence (203–293 K) of the absorption cross sections of O3 in the 230–850 nm region measured by Fourier-transform spectroscopy, J. Photochem. Photobiol. A, 143, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1010-6030(01)00480-4, 2001.
Walter, T., Gaete, A., Mikulla, S., Kujawa, C., Salzer, J., and Zimmer, M.: Seismic monitoring at Lascar volcano after 2014 Iquique earthquake, GFZ Data Services, Other/Seismic Network, https://doi.org/10.14470/3R7569753098, 2014.
Walter, T. R.: Low cost volcano deformation monitoring: optical strain
measurement and application to Mount St. Helens data, Geophys. J. Int., 186, 699–705, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05051.x, 2011.
Walter, T. R., Subandriyo, J., Kirbani, S., Bathke, H., Suryanto, W., Aisyah, N., Darmawan, H., Jousset, P., Luehr, B. G., and Dahm, T.: Volcano-tectonic control of Merapi's lava dome splitting: The November 2013 fracture observed from high resolution TerraSAR-X data, Tectonophysics, 639, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2014.11.007, 2015.
Witt, T. and Walter, T. R.: Video monitoring reveals pulsating vents and
propagation path of fissure eruption during the March 2011 Pu'u 'Ō'ō
eruption, Kilauea volcano, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 330, 43–55,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.11.012, 2017.
Wooster, M. J.: Long-term infrared surveillance of Lascar Volcano: Contrasting activity cycles and cooling pyroclastics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 847–850, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL011904, 2001.
Wooster, M. J. and Rothery, D. A.: Thermal monitoring of Lascar Volcano, Chile, using infrared data from the along-track scanning radiometer: a
1992–1995 time series, Bull. Volcanol., 58, 566–579, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450050163, 1997.
Yamamoto, T., Nakamura, Y., and Glicken, H.: Pyroclastic density current from
the 1888 phreatic eruption of Bandai volcano, NE Japan, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 90, 191–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(99)00025-6, 1999.
Zimmer, M., Walter, T. R., Kujawa, C., Gaete, A., and Franco-Marin, L.: Thermal and gas dynamic investigations at Lastarria volcano, Northern Chile.
The influence of precipitation and atmospheric pressure on the fumarole
temperature and the gas velocity, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 346, 134–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.03.013, 2017.
Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint