In recent years, several valuable nature reserves in Belgium have been severely damaged by wildfires. In order to optimize risk management and prepare for a possibly increasing number of such events, the first wildfire ignition probability map is developed for Belgium, based on data that were obtained from the government and newspaper articles. We find that most ignitions occur in the provinces of Limburg and Antwerp and that most causes are of anthropogenic nature (such as military exercises).

Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.

On 8 October 2005 the region of Kashmir was struck by a devastating earthquake of magnitude 7.6. Northern Pakistan and the region of Kashmir were severely damaged. The official death toll according to the Pakistani government was 87 350. It was thought that the terrain could have played a crucial role in the damage caused by the earthquake directly or indirectly. In this article we found that the terrain played a crucial role in intensifying the devastation of the earthquake.

The methodology presented in this paper is considered an important entry point to addressing the complex problems related to disaster resilience. Regardless of storms, hurricane impact on local employment is found to be either temporary or permanent in nature. Relating the concept of resilience to observable socioeconomic activities helps us gain a deeper understanding of the drivers and processes of post-storm recovery. Studies play a major role in bridging knowledge gaps.

The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model. Both deterministic (single forecast of the most likely weather) and ensemble forecasts (set or ensemble of forecasts) have been produced on three subcatchments of the eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.

Post-event field survey data from two tsunami events, the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, Chile, are used in this study to develop fragility functions for roads and bridges. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of supplementing post-event field surveys with remotely sensed data. The resulting fragility functions address a substantial research gap in tsunami impacts on infrastructure and include a range of subtleties in asset and hazard characteristics.

This study proposes a new drought index that combines meteorological and agricultural drought aspects. The index is scalable, transferable all over the globe, can be updated in near real time and is a remote-sensing product, since only satellite-based datasets were employed. A set of rules to objectively identify drought events is also implemented. We found that the set of rules, applied together with the new index, outperformed conventional drought indices in identifying droughts in Haiti.

When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.

Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.

Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today’s socio-technological world, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessment. This paper proposes a holistic, graph-based approach for assessing the risk of complex systems. The feasibility of the approach is discussed by an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.

On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.

Assessing tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk is challenging due to a lack of historical TC wind data. This paper presents a novel approach to simulating landfalling TC winds anywhere on Earth. It captures local features such as high winds over coastal hills and lulls over rough terrain. A dataset of over 700 global historical wind footprints has been generated to provide new views of historical events. This dataset can be used to advance our understanding of overland TC wind risk.

In this study, we conducted a more detailed semiquantitative landslide risk assessment at a community level and scale of 1 : 10 000. In this manner, the case study computed the loss of lives and properties for each slope. The proposed procedure proved to be more useful in complementing risk assessment on the small scale of 100 000 in western Hubei, China.

This work uses terrestrial laser scanning techniques to monitor and quantify changes to snow cornices near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway, with sub-decimeter accuracy. Our findings illustrate how complex interactions between topography and meteorological conditions govern the growth, failure, and associated avalanche activity of the cornices in this location. These findings can help improve forecasting of snow-cornice-related hazards in this and other locations exposed to snow cornice hazards.

AutoRoute is one of the tools used by the US Military to create high-resolution flood inundation maps at regional to continental scales. Although proven to be useful in simulating floods in remote regions of the world, the accuracy of the model has had only limited testing for nonextreme flood cases. This paper presents improvements to AutoRoute to accurately simulate both extreme and nonextreme flood cases while improving the applicability in a production setting.

Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake-affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. This study conducts such a comprehensive review for mainland China and aims to better serve the natural disaster prevention and mitigation cause in China.

Using accurate elevation data, we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Although Norway is at low risk from sea level rise, parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. Nationwide we identify an area of 400 km², 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a storm surge at present (these numbers increase to 610 km², 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090). The maps aid coastal management and climate adaption in Norway.

The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.