Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Style of faulting of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling
Silvia Pondrelli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna,
Italy
Francesco Visini
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Andrea Rovida
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Milano, Milan, Italy
Vera D'Amico
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Bruno Pace
DiSPUTer Department, Università G. d'Annunzio Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy
Carlo Meletti
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
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We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
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Short summary
We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future...
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