Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 18 Dec 2020
| 18 Dec 2020
Style of faulting of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling
Silvia Pondrelli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna,
Italy
Francesco Visini
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Andrea Rovida
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Milano, Milan, Italy
Vera D'Amico
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Bruno Pace
DiSPUTer Department, Università G. d'Annunzio Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy
Carlo Meletti
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Related authors
Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, Judith M. Confal, Marco Malusà, Anne Paul, Stephane Guillot, Stefano Solarino, Elena Eva, Coralie Aubert, and Liang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-468, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse and interpret seismic anisotropy from CIFALPS2 data, that fills the gaps in Western Alps and support a new hypothesis. Instead of a continuous mantle flow parallel to the belt here we find: a NS mantle deformation pattern from beneath Europe that merges first with mantle deformed by slab retreat beneath Central Alps, then merges with an asthenospheric flow sourced beneath the Massif Central. This new sketch supports the extinction of slab retreat beneath Western Alps.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Laura Petrescu, Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, Manuele Faccenda, and the AlpArray Working Group
Solid Earth, 11, 1275–1290, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1275-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To place constraints on the mantle deformation beneath the Central Alps and the greater Alpine region, we analysed the appropriate seismic signal recorded by more than 100 stations, belonging to AlpArray and to other permanent networks. We took a picture of the imprinting that Alpine orogen history and related subductions left at depth, with a mainly orogen-parallel mantle deformation from Western Alps to Eastern Alps, but also N to S from the Po Plain to the Rhine Graben.
Aladino Govoni, Luciana Bonatto, Marco Capello, Adriano Cavaliere, Claudio Chiarabba, Ezio D'Alema, Stefania Danesi, Sara Lovati, Lucia Margheriti, Marco Massa, Salvatore Mazza, Francesco Mazzarini, Stephen Monna, Milena Moretti, Anna Nardi, Davide Piccinini, Claudia Piromallo, Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, Enrico Serpelloni, Stefano Solarino, Massimiliano Vallocchia, Marco Santulin, and the AlpArray Working Group
Adv. Geosci., 43, 39–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-39-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-39-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We describe here the contribution of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanolgia (INGV) to the AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN) in the framework of the AlpArray project (http://www.alparray.ethz.ch), a large European collaborative research initiative.
The aim of AlpArray is carrying out cutting edge research to advance our understanding of the deep structure, geodynamics, tectonics and seismic hazard of the greater Alpine area (Alps-Apennines-Carpathians-Dinarides orogenic system).
Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, Judith M. Confal, Marco Malusà, Anne Paul, Stephane Guillot, Stefano Solarino, Elena Eva, Coralie Aubert, and Liang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-468, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse and interpret seismic anisotropy from CIFALPS2 data, that fills the gaps in Western Alps and support a new hypothesis. Instead of a continuous mantle flow parallel to the belt here we find: a NS mantle deformation pattern from beneath Europe that merges first with mantle deformed by slab retreat beneath Central Alps, then merges with an asthenospheric flow sourced beneath the Massif Central. This new sketch supports the extinction of slab retreat beneath Western Alps.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso Guillermo Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative reference in the next update of the European Seismic Design Codes (CEN EC8) and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe (Crowley et al., 2021).
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, and Oona Scotti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7339–7355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose. We present an approach (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories using paleoseismic data, a type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on fault rupture behavior for the seismic hazard.
Vera D’Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-203, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. Actually, applications of PSHA often require sampling few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Andrea Rovida, Andrea Antonucci, and Mario Locati
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5213–5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5213-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
EPICA is the 1000–1899 catalogue compiled for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 and contains 5703 earthquakes with Mw ≥ 4.0. It relies on the data of the European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data (AHEAD), both macroseismic intensities from historical seismological studies and parameters from regional catalogues. For each earthquake, the most representative datasets were selected and processed in order to derive harmonised parameters, both from intensity data and parametric catalogues.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2299–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
Laura Petrescu, Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, Manuele Faccenda, and the AlpArray Working Group
Solid Earth, 11, 1275–1290, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1275-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To place constraints on the mantle deformation beneath the Central Alps and the greater Alpine region, we analysed the appropriate seismic signal recorded by more than 100 stations, belonging to AlpArray and to other permanent networks. We took a picture of the imprinting that Alpine orogen history and related subductions left at depth, with a mainly orogen-parallel mantle deformation from Western Alps to Eastern Alps, but also N to S from the Po Plain to the Rhine Graben.
Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Oona Scotti, and Laura Peruzza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1349–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1349-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1349-2018, 2018
Alessandro Valentini, Francesco Visini, and Bruno Pace
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2017–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2017-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2017-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present the results of an alternative seismogenic source model for use in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Italy that integrates active fault and seismological data. Combining active faults and background sources is one of the key aspects in this type of approach. The strength of our approach lies in its ability to integrate different levels of available information for active faults in Italy or elsewhere.
Laura Peruzza, Raffaele Azzaro, Robin Gee, Salvatore D'Amico, Horst Langer, Giuseppe Lombardo, Bruno Pace, Marco Pagani, Francesco Panzera, Mario Ordaz, Miguel Leonardo Suarez, and Giuseppina Tusa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1999–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
It is well known that volcanoes and earthquakes are associated, and some active volcanoes cause damaging earthquakes. Nonetheless, volcanoes usually are not pinpointed on a hazard map, as the effects of shallow, volcanic earthquakes can be overshadowed by stronger tectonic earthquakes in the region, particularly when long exposure periods are considered. In this study we faced some challenges with software implementations and original concept scheme for an original PSHA at Mt. Etna, Italy.
Raffaele Azzaro, Graziella Barberi, Salvatore D'Amico, Bruno Pace, Laura Peruzza, and Tiziana Tuvè
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1981–1998, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017, 2017
Aladino Govoni, Luciana Bonatto, Marco Capello, Adriano Cavaliere, Claudio Chiarabba, Ezio D'Alema, Stefania Danesi, Sara Lovati, Lucia Margheriti, Marco Massa, Salvatore Mazza, Francesco Mazzarini, Stephen Monna, Milena Moretti, Anna Nardi, Davide Piccinini, Claudia Piromallo, Silvia Pondrelli, Simone Salimbeni, Enrico Serpelloni, Stefano Solarino, Massimiliano Vallocchia, Marco Santulin, and the AlpArray Working Group
Adv. Geosci., 43, 39–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-39-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-39-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We describe here the contribution of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanolgia (INGV) to the AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN) in the framework of the AlpArray project (http://www.alparray.ethz.ch), a large European collaborative research initiative.
The aim of AlpArray is carrying out cutting edge research to advance our understanding of the deep structure, geodynamics, tectonics and seismic hazard of the greater Alpine area (Alps-Apennines-Carpathians-Dinarides orogenic system).
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: Challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland ERM-CH23
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of the built environment in the city of Srinagar, Kashmir Himalaya, using a geographic information system
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
PERL: a dataset of geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological parameters for earthquake-induced hazards assessment in Terre del Reno (Emilia-Romagna, Italy)
Development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings using machine learning – Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand
A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Inferring the depth and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes from intensity attenuation curves
Tsunami scenario triggered by a submarine landslide offshore of northern Sumatra Island and its hazard assessment
Scrutinizing and rooting the multiple anomalies of Nepal earthquake sequence in 2015 with the deviation–time–space criterion and homologous lithosphere–coversphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling physics
On the calculation of smoothing kernels for seismic parameter spatial mapping: methodology and examples
Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara
Brief communication: The crucial assessment of possible significant vertical movements preceding the 28 December 1908, Mw = 7.1, Messina Straits earthquake
Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi's active faults: the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM)
Probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis for the north Tabriz fault
Landslides triggered by the 2015 Mw 6.0 Sabah (Malaysia) earthquake: inventory and ESI-07 intensity assignment
Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru
An updated area-source seismogenic model (MA4) for seismic hazard of Italy
Identifying plausible historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes: the case for the Dead Sea during the last 2 millennia
Analysis of seismic strain release related to the tidal stress preceding the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
A morphotectonic approach to the study of earthquakes in Rome
Fault slip potential induced by fluid injection in the Matouying enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field, Tangshan seismic region, North China
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Vera D’Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-203, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. Actually, applications of PSHA often require sampling few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-186, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses scenarios of earthquake events, but the selection criteria do not always consider consequences to exposed assets. For this reason, we adopt a definition of representative scenario, associated to a return period and loss level, for selecting such scenarios among a big set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential buildings and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios vary in function of the exposed assets.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-124, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled backbone logic tree for application to Europe’s subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damages are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components, which may be tested individually, however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we are using observations of damages caused by the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, and estimations with other models to test components of the 2020 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model and the European Seismic Risk Model.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents, to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Mohamadreza Hosseini and Habib Rahimi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3571–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damage requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
Maria Francesca Ferrario
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3527–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
I mapped over 5000 landslides triggered by a moment magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred in 2015 in the Sabah region (Malaysia). I analyzed their number, dimension and spatial distribution by dividing the territory into 1 km2 cells. I applied the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which allows the categorization of earthquake damage due to environmental effects. The presented approach promotes the collaboration among the experts in landslide mapping and in ESI-07 assignment.
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
Xuezhong Chen, Yane Li, and Lijuan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2543–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
When the tectonic stress in the crust increases, the b value will decrease, meaning the effects of tidal stresses are enhanced gradually. Increase in the tidal Coulomb failure stress might promote the occurrence of earthquakes, whereas its decrease could have an opposite effect. This observation may provide an insight into the processes leading to the Wenchuan earthquake and its precursors.
Fabrizio Marra, Alberto Frepoli, Dario Gioia, Marcello Schiattarella, Andrea Tertulliani, Monica Bini, Gaetano De Luca, and Marco Luppichini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2445–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Through the analysis of the morphostructural setting in which the seismicity of Rome is framed, we explain why the city should not expect to suffer damage from a big earthquake.
Chengjun Feng, Guangliang Gao, Shihuai Zhang, Dongsheng Sun, Siyu Zhu, Chengxuan Tan, and Xiaodong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2257–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show how FSP (Fault Slip Potential) software can be used in quantitative screening to estimate the fault slip potential in a region with some uncertainties in the ambient stress field and to assess the reactivation potential on these faults of presumably higher criticality in response to fluid injection. The case study of the Matouying enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field has important implications for deep geothermal exploitation in China, especially for the Gonghe EGS in Qinghai Province.
Cited articles
Allmendinger, R. W., Cardozo, N., and Fisher, D.: Structural geology
algorithms: Vectors and tensors in structural geology, Cambridge University
Press, 302 pp., 2012.
Anzidei, M., Maramai, A., and Montone, P. (Eds.): The Emilia (northern Italy)
seismic sequence of May–June 2012: preliminary data and results, Ann. Geophys., 55, 4, 515–842, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6232, 2012.
Akkar, S., Sandıkkaya, M. A., and Bommer, J. J.: Empirical ground-motion
models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe
and the Middle East, B. Earthq. Eng., 12, 359–387,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4, 2014.
Bernardi, F., Braunmiller, J., Kradolfer, U., and Giardini, D.: Automatic
regional moment tensor inversion in the European-Mediterranean region,
Geophys. J. Int., 157, 703–716, 2004.
Bindi, D., Pacor, F., Luzi, L., Puglia, R., Massa, M., Ameri, G., and
Paolucci, R.: Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian
strong motion database, B. Earthq. Eng., 9, 1899–1920, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9313-z, 2011.
Bindi, D., Massa, M., Luzi, L., Ameri, G., Pacor, F., Puglia, R., and
Augliera, P.: Pan-European ground-motion prediction equations for the
average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5 %-damped PSA at spectral
periods up to 3.0 s using the RESORCE dataset. B. Earthq. Eng., 12,
391–430, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9525-5, 2014.
Bommer, J. J., Douglas, J., and Strasser, F. O.: Style-of-Faulting in
Ground-Motion Prediction Equations, B. Earthq. Eng., 1,
171–203, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026323123154, 2003.
Chiarabba, C., De Gori, P., Cattaneo, M., Spallarossa, D., and Segou, M.:
Faults geometry and the role of fluids in the 2016–2017 Central Italy
seismic sequence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6963–6971, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077485, 2018.
Devoti, R., D'Agostino, N., Serpelloni, E., Pietrantonio, G., Riguzzi, F., Avallone, A., Cavaliere, A., Cheloni, D., Cecere, G., D’Ambrosio, C., Falco, L., Selvaggi, G., Métois, M., Esposito, A., Sepe, V., Galvani, A., and Anzidei, M.: A Combined Velocity Field of the Mediterranean Region. Ann. Geophys., 60, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7059, 2017.
DISS Working Group: Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS),
Version 3.2.1: A compilation of potential sources for earthquakes larger
than M 5.5 in Italy and surrounding areas, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, https://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-DISS3.2.1, 2018.
Dziewonski, A. M., Chou, T.-A., and Woodhouse, J. H.: Determination of
earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and
regional seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 2825–2852, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB086iB04p02825, 1981.
Ekström, G., Nettles, M., and Dziewonski, A. M.: The global CMT project
2004–2010: Centroid-moment tensors for 13,017 earthquakes, Phys. Earth
Planet. In., 200–201, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2012.04.002, 2012.
Pondrelli, S.: European-Mediterranean Regional Centroid-Moment Tensors Catalog (RCMT) [Data set], Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), https://doi.org/10.13127/rcmt/euromed, 2002.
Galadini, F. and Galli, P.: The Holocene paleo-earthquakes on the 1915
Avezzano earthquake faults (central Italy): implications for active
tectonics in the central Apennines, Tectonophysics, 308, 143–170, 1999.
Gasperini, P., Lolli, B., and Vannucci, G.: Relative frequencies of seismic
main shocks after strong shocks in Italy, Geophys. J. Int.,
207, 150–159, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw263, 2016.
ISIDe Working Group: Italian Seismological Instrumental and Parametric
Database (ISIDe), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV),
https://doi.org/10.13127/ISIDE, 2007.
Kostrov, V. V.: Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes and seismic flow of
rocks, Izv. Acad. Sci. USSR Phys. Solid Earth, 1, 23–40, 1974.
Loreto, M. F., Fracassi, U., Franzo, A., Del Negro, P., Zgur, F., and
Facchin, L.: Approaching the seismogenic source of the Calabria 8 September 1905 earthquake: New geophysical, geological and biochemical data from the S. Eufemia Gulf (S Italy), Mar. Geol., 343, 62–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2013.06.016, 2013.
Marchetti, A., Ciaccio, M. G., Nardi, A., Bono, A., Mele, F. M., Margheriti, L., Rossi, A., Battelli, P., Melorio, C., Castello, B., Lauciani, V., Berardi, M., Castellano, C., Arcoraci, L., Lozzi, G., Battelli, A., Thermes, C., Pagliuca, N., Modica, G., Lisi, A., Pizzino, L., Baccheschi, P., Pintore, S., Quintiliani, M., Mandiello, A., Marcocci, C., Fares, M., Cheloni, D., Frepoli, A., Latorre, D., Lombardi, A. M., Moretti, M., Pastori, M., Vallocchia, M., Govoni, A., Scognamiglio, L., Basili, A., Michelini, A., and Mazza, S.: The Italian Seismic Bulletin: strategies, revised
pickings and locations of the central Italy seismic sequence, Ann. Geophys., 59, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7169, 2016.
Marrett, R. A. and Allmendinger, R. W.: Kinematic analysis of fault-slip
data, J. Struct. Geol., 12, 973–986, 1990.
Meletti, C., Galadini, F., Valensise, G., Stucchi, M., Basili, R., Barba, S.,
Vannucci, G., and Boschi, E.: A seismic source model for the seimic hazard
assessment of the Italian territory, Tectonophysics,
85–108, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2008.01.003, 2008.
Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., and MPS16 Working Group: The 2016 Italian seismic
hazard model, in: Proc. 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,
Santiago de Chile, 9–13 January, 747, S-P1463070033, 2017.
Meletti, C., Visini, F., D'Amico, V., Pace, B., and Rovida, A.: The seismicity model for Italy MA4, Internal report, Seismic Hazard Center-INGV, Roma, 10 pp., 2019.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., and Vigano, D.: OpenQuake engine: An open hazard (and risk) software for the
global earthquake model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 692–702,
https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087, 2014.
Pondrelli, S. and Salimbeni, S.: Italian CMT Dataset [Data set], Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), https://doi.org/10.13127/rcmt/italy, 2006.
Pondrelli, S. and Salimbeni, S.: Regional Moment Tensor Review: An Example
from the European Mediterranean Region, in: Encyclopedia of Earthquake
Engineering
Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 1–15, available at: http://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_301-1 (last access: 11 December 2020), 2015.
Pondrelli, S., Ekström, G., and Morelli, A.: Seismotectonic re-evaluation
of the 1976 Friuli, Italy, seismic sequence, J. Seismol., 5, 73–83,
https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1009822018837, 2001.
Pondrelli, S., Morelli, A., Ekström, G., Mazza, S., Boschi, E., and
Dziewonski, A. M.: European-Mediterranean regional centroid-moment tensors:
1997–2000, Phys. Earth Planet. In., 130, 71–101, 2002.
Pondrelli, S., Salimbeni, S., Ekström, G., Morelli, A., Gasperini, P.
and Vannucci, G.: The Italian CMT dataset from 1977 to the present, Phys.
Earth Planet. Int., 159, 286–303, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2006.07.008,
2006.
Roselli, P., Marzocchi, W., Mariucci, M. T., and Montone, P.: Earthquake focal
mechanism forecasting in Italy for PSHA purposes, Geophys. J. Int., 212,
491–508, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx383, 2017.
Rovida, A., Locati, M., Camassi, R., Lolli, B., and Gasperini, P. (Eds.): CPTI15,
the 2015 version of the Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes,
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. https://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-CPTI15, 2016, last access: 15 July 2020.
Saul, J., Becker, J., and Hanka, W.: Global moment tensor computation at GFZ
Potsdam, AGU 2011 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, abstract ID. S51A-2202, 2011.
Serpelloni, E., Anzidei, M., Baldi, P., Casula, G., and Galvani, A.: Crustal
velocity and strain-rate fields in Italy and surrounding regions: new
results from the analysis of permanent and non-permanent GPS networks,
Geophys. J. Int., 161, 3, 861–880, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02618.x, 2005.
Stucchi, M., Meletti, C., Montaldo, V., Crowley, H., Calvi, G. M., and
Boschi, E.: Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003–2009) for the Italian Building
Code, B. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, 1885–1911, 2011.
Vannucci, G. and Gasperini, P.: The new release of the database of
Earthquake Mechanisms of the Mediterranean Area (EMMA Version 2), Ann.
Geophys., 47, 307–334, 2004.
Short summary
We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint