Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, 2019
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, 2019
Research article
08 Jul 2019
Research article | 08 Jul 2019

Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location

David M. Hyman et al.

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Cited articles

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Bevilacqua, A., Patra, A. K., Bursik, M. I., Pitman, E. B., Macías, J. L., Saucedo, R., and Hyman, D.: Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (México) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820,, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Final-revised paper