Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Research article
 | 
08 Jul 2019
Research article |  | 08 Jul 2019

Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location

David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik

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Latest update: 27 Oct 2025
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Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
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