Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
Review article
 | 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |  | 24 Oct 2018

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas

Keith J. Beven, Susana Almeida, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Sarka Blazkova, Edoardo Borgomeo, Jim Freer, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, David B. Stephenson, Thorsten Wagener, Matt Watson, and Kate L. Wilkins

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Cited articles

AIR Worldwide: Study of impact and the insurance and economic cost of a major earthquake in British Columbia and Ontario/Québec, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Toronto, Canada, 345 p., 2013.
Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng. Geol., 73, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007, 2004.
Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del, Pozo, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cevennes Region, Adv. Geosci., 29, 13–20, 2011.
Almeida, S., Holcombe, E. A., Pianosi, F., and Wagener, T.: Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017, 2017.
Alonso, E. E., Gens, A., and Delahaye, C. H.: Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study, Hydrogeol. J., 11, 174–192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-002-0245-1, 2003.
Short summary
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
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