Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
Review article
 | 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |  | 24 Oct 2018

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas

Keith J. Beven, Susana Almeida, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Sarka Blazkova, Edoardo Borgomeo, Jim Freer, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, David B. Stephenson, Thorsten Wagener, Matt Watson, and Kate L. Wilkins

Related authors

Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Technical note: Hydrology modelling R packages – a unified analysis of models and practicalities from a user perspective
Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021
Short summary
The era of infiltration
Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 851–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021, 2021
Short summary
A history of TOPMODEL
Keith J. Beven, Mike J. Kirkby, Jim E. Freer, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 527–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

AIR Worldwide: Study of impact and the insurance and economic cost of a major earthquake in British Columbia and Ontario/Québec, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Toronto, Canada, 345 p., 2013.
Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng. Geol., 73, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007, 2004.
Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del, Pozo, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cevennes Region, Adv. Geosci., 29, 13–20, 2011.
Almeida, S., Holcombe, E. A., Pianosi, F., and Wagener, T.: Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017, 2017.
Alonso, E. E., Gens, A., and Delahaye, C. H.: Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study, Hydrogeol. J., 11, 174–192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-002-0245-1, 2003.
Short summary
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint