Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2018
| 24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Susana Almeida
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Willy P. Aspinall
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Paul D. Bates
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Sarka Blazkova
T. G. Masaryk Water Resource Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
Edoardo Borgomeo
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jim Freer
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Katsuichiro Goda
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Jim W. Hall
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jeremy C. Phillips
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Michael Simpson
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Paul J. Smith
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Waternumbers Limited, Halton Mill, Halton, Lancaster, LA2 6DN, UK
David B. Stephenson
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
Thorsten Wagener
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Matt Watson
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Kate L. Wilkins
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Related authors
Elizabeth Follett, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, David Mindham, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 197–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a spreadsheet design tool for barriers in streams used for natural flood management. Retention times in such barriers should neither be too short (they fill and empty too quickly) or too long (they might already be full when a flood occurs). Previous work has shown the order of 10 h to be effective. The tool is freely available for download at https://www.jbatrust.org/how-we-help/publications-resources/rivers-and-coasts/nfm-leaky-barrier-retention-times.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith Beven, Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Ann Kretzschmar, Barry Hankin, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a method of deciding when a hydrological model might be fit for purpose given the limitations of the data that are available for model evaluation. In this case the purpose is to reproduce the peak flows for an application that is concerned with evaluating the effect of natural flood management measures on flood peaks. It is shown that while all the models fail to pass the test at all time steps, there is an ensemble of models that pass for the hydrograph peaks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This publication provides an introduction to the CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox. CURE offers workflows for a variety of uncertainty estimation methods. One of its most important features is the requirement that all of the assumptions on which a workflow analysis depends be defined. This facilitates communication with potential users of an analysis. An audit trail log is produced automatically from a workflow for future reference.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The R programming language has become an important tool for many applications in hydrology. In this study, we provide an analysis of some of the R tools providing hydrological models. In total, two aspects are uniformly investigated, namely the conceptualisation of the models and the practicality of their implementation for end-users. These comparisons aim at easing the choice of R tools for users and at improving their usability for hydrology modelling to support more transferable research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 851–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inspired by a quotation from Howard Cook in 1946, this paper traces the evolution of the infiltration theory of runoff from the work of Robert Horton and LeRoy Sherman in the 1930s to the early digital computer models of the 1970s and 1980s. Reconsideration of the perceptual model for many catchments, partly as a result of the greater appreciation of the contribution of subsurface flows to the hydrograph indicated by tracer studies, suggests a reconsideration of hydrological nomenclature.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith J. Beven, Mike J. Kirkby, Jim E. Freer, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 527–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments: the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL, and it considers what we might do now with the benefit of hindsight.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2655–2670, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2655-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of time of concentration in the analysis of catchment responses dates back over 150 years. It is normally discussed in terms of the velocity of flow of a water particle from the furthest part of a catchment to the outlet. This is also the basis for the definition in the International Glossary of Hydrology, but this is in conflict with the way in which it is commonly used. This paper provides a clarification of the concept and its correct useage.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith J. Beven, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Edoardo Borgomeo, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Trevor Page, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, Thorsten Wagener, and Matt Watson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Part 1 of this paper discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and implications of applying the principles to natural hazard science are discussed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter Metcalfe, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding is a significant hazard and extreme events in recent years have focused attention on effective means of reducing its risk. An approach known as natural flood management (NFM) seeks to increase flood resilience by a range of measures that work with natural processes. The paper develops a modelling approach to assess one type NFM of intervention – distributed additional hillslope storage features – and demonstrates that more strategic placement is required than has hitherto been applied.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kevin Sene, Wlodek Tych, and Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 127–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The theme of the paper is exploration of the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large lakes using a range of stochastic transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mary C. Ockenden, Wlodek Tych, Keith J. Beven, Adrian L. Collins, Robert Evans, Peter D. Falloon, Kirsty J. Forber, Kevin M. Hiscock, Michael J. Hollaway, Ron Kahana, Christopher J. A. Macleod, Martha L. Villamizar, Catherine Wearing, Paul J. A. Withers, Jian G. Zhou, Clare McW. H. Benskin, Sean Burke, Richard J. Cooper, Jim E. Freer, and Philip M. Haygarth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6425–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes simple models of phosphorus load which are identified for three catchments in the UK. The models use new hourly observations of phosphorus load, which capture the dynamics of phosphorus transfer in small catchments that are often missed by models with a longer time step. Unlike more complex, process-based models, very few parameters are required, leading to low parameter uncertainty. Interpretation of the dominant phosphorus transfer modes is made based solely on the data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Diana Fuentes-Andino, Keith Beven, Sven Halldin, Chong-Yu Xu, José Eduardo Reynolds, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3597–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Reproduction of past floods requires information on discharge and flood extent, commonly unavailable or uncertain during extreme events. We explored the possibility of reproducing an extreme flood disaster using rainfall and post-event hydrometric information by combining a rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling tool within an uncertainty analysis framework. Considering the uncertainty in post–event data, it was possible to reasonably reproduce the extreme event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rémi Dupas, Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Keith J. Beven, Patrick Durand, Philip M. Haygarth, Michael J. Hollaway, and Chantal Gascuel-Odoux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4819–4835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4819-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4819-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a parsimonious topography-based hydrologic model coupled with a soil biogeochemistry sub-model in order to improve understanding and prediction of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) transfer in agricultural headwater catchments. The modelling approach includes an analysis of the information contained in the calibration data and propagation of uncertainty in model predictions using a GLUE "limits of acceptability" framework.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
K. J. Beven, S. Almeida, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, S. Blazkova, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. C. Phillips, M. Simpson, P. J. Smith, D. B. Stephenson, T. Wagener, M. Watson, and K. L. Wilkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. This is Part 2 of 2 papers reviewing these epistemic uncertainties and covers different areas of natural hazards including landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. It is based on the work of the UK CREDIBLE research consortium.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
K. J. Beven, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. W. Hall, T. Page, J. C. Phillips, J. T. Rougier, M. Simpson, D. B. Stephenson, P. J. Smith, T. Wagener, and M. Watson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. This is Part 1 of 2 papers reviewing these epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. It is based on the work of the CREDIBLE research consortium on Risk and Uncertainty in Natural Hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
I. K. Westerberg, L. Gong, K. J. Beven, J. Seibert, A. Semedo, C.-Y. Xu, and S. Halldin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2993–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, 2014
D. Leedal, A. H. Weerts, P. J. Smith, and K. J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 177–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-177-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-177-2013, 2013
Shervan Gharari, Paul H. Whitfield, Alain Pietroniro, Jim Freer, Hongli Liu, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4383–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides insight into the practices that are incorporated into discharge estimation across the national Canadian hydrometric network operated by the Water Survey of Canada (WSC). The procedures used to estimate and correct discharge values are not always understood by end-users. Factors such as ice cover and sedimentation limit accurate discharge estimation. Highlighting these challenges sheds light on difficulties in discharge estimation and the associated uncertainty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elizabeth Follett, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, David Mindham, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 197–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a spreadsheet design tool for barriers in streams used for natural flood management. Retention times in such barriers should neither be too short (they fill and empty too quickly) or too long (they might already be full when a flood occurs). Previous work has shown the order of 10 h to be effective. The tool is freely available for download at https://www.jbatrust.org/how-we-help/publications-resources/rivers-and-coasts/nfm-leaky-barrier-retention-times.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith Beven, Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Ann Kretzschmar, Barry Hankin, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a method of deciding when a hydrological model might be fit for purpose given the limitations of the data that are available for model evaluation. In this case the purpose is to reproduce the peak flows for an application that is concerned with evaluating the effect of natural flood management measures on flood peaks. It is shown that while all the models fail to pass the test at all time steps, there is an ensemble of models that pass for the hydrograph peaks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This publication provides an introduction to the CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox. CURE offers workflows for a variety of uncertainty estimation methods. One of its most important features is the requirement that all of the assumptions on which a workflow analysis depends be defined. This facilitates communication with potential users of an analysis. An audit trail log is produced automatically from a workflow for future reference.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Youtong Rong, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3291–3311, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A novel subgrid channel (SGC) model is developed for river–floodplain modelling, allowing utilization of subgrid-scale bathymetric information while performing computations on relatively coarse grids. By including adaptive artificial diffusion, potential numerical instability, which the original SGC solver had, in low-friction regions such as urban areas is addressed. Evaluation of the new SGC model through structured tests confirmed that the accuracy and stability have improved.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mohammad Kazem Sharifian, Georges Kesserwani, Alovya Ahmed Chowdhury, Jeffrey Neal, and Paul Bates
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2391–2413, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new release of the LISFLOOD-FP model for fast and efficient flood simulations. It features a new non-uniform grid generator that uses multiwavelet analyses to sensibly coarsens the resolutions where the local topographic variations are smooth. Moreover, the model is parallelised on the graphical processing units (GPUs) to further boost computational efficiency. The performance of the model is assessed for five real-world case studies, noting its potential applications.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Louisa D. Oldham, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas Howden, John P. Bloomfield, and Christopher Jackson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 761–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water can move between river catchments via the subsurface, termed intercatchment groundwater flow (IGF). We show how a perceptual model of IGF can be developed with relatively simple geological interpretation and data requirements. We find that IGF dynamics vary in space, correlated to the dominant underlying geology. We recommend that IGF
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
loss functionsmay be used in conceptual rainfall–runoff models but should be supported by perceptualisation of IGF processes and connectivities.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Jan Seibert, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB). Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows along the west coast of GB by 2050–2075. In contrast, average flows decreased across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties; the climate projections were the largest source of uncertainty overall but hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in some regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a novel framework of time-dependent (TD) probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) combining a total of ≥ 100,000 spatiotemporal earthquakes (EQ) rupture models and 6,300 probabilistic tsunami simulations to evaluate the tsunami hazards and compare them with the time-independent (TI) PTHA results. The proposed model can capture the uncertainty of future TD tsunami hazards and produces slightly higher hazard estimates than the TI model for short-term periods (< 30 years).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Razi Sheikholeslami and Jim W. Hall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-618, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations in global freshwater nitrogen concentrations using a relatively parsimonious data-driven approach based on random forest method. We used the proposed model to identify several hotspots of nitrogen pollution in 115 major river basins of the world. Furthermore, we found that livestock population, nitrogen fertilizer application, temperature, and precipitation are the most influential predictors of nitrogen pollution of the river systems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7545–7571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
hiddenunderground and thus hard to measure. We suggest using multiple complementary strategies to assess the performance of a model (
model evaluation).
Gang Zhao, Paul Bates, Jeffrey Neal, and Bo Pang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5981–5999, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5981-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Design flood estimation is a fundamental task in hydrology. We propose a machine- learning-based approach to estimate design floods anywhere on the global river network. This approach shows considerable improvement over the index-flood-based method, and the average bias in estimation is less than 18 % for 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year design floods. This approach is a valid method to estimate design floods globally, improving our prediction of flood hazard, especially in ungauged areas.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter Uhe, Daniel Mitchell, Paul D. Bates, Nans Addor, Jeff Neal, and Hylke E. Beck
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4865–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4865-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4865-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a cascade of models to compute high-resolution river flooding. This takes meteorological inputs, e.g., rainfall and temperature from observations or climate models, and takes them through a series of modeling steps. This is relevant to evaluating current day and future flood risk and impacts. The model framework uses global data sets, allowing it to be applied anywhere in the world.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The R programming language has become an important tool for many applications in hydrology. In this study, we provide an analysis of some of the R tools providing hydrological models. In total, two aspects are uniformly investigated, namely the conceptualisation of the models and the practicality of their implementation for end-users. These comparisons aim at easing the choice of R tools for users and at improving their usability for hydrology modelling to support more transferable research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
James Shaw, Georges Kesserwani, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, and Mohammad Kazem Sharifian
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3577–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
LISFLOOD-FP has been extended with new shallow-water solvers – DG2 and FV1 – for modelling all types of slow- or fast-moving waves over any smooth or rough surface. Using GPU parallelisation, FV1 is faster than the simpler ACC solver on grids with millions of elements. The DG2 solver is notably effective on coarse grids where river channels are hard to capture, improving predicted river levels and flood water depths. This marks a new step towards real-world DG2 flood inundation modelling.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thorsten Wagener, Dragan Savic, David Butler, Reza Ahmadian, Tom Arnot, Jonathan Dawes, Slobodan Djordjevic, Roger Falconer, Raziyeh Farmani, Debbie Ford, Jan Hofman, Zoran Kapelan, Shunqi Pan, and Ross Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2721–2738, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2721-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
How can we effectively train PhD candidates both (i) across different knowledge domains in water science and engineering and (ii) in computer science? To address this issue, the Water Informatics in Science and Engineering Centre for Doctoral Training (WISE CDT) offers a postgraduate programme that fosters enhanced levels of innovation and collaboration by training a cohort of engineers and scientists at the boundary of water informatics, science and engineering.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 851–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inspired by a quotation from Howard Cook in 1946, this paper traces the evolution of the infiltration theory of runoff from the work of Robert Horton and LeRoy Sherman in the 1930s to the early digital computer models of the 1970s and 1980s. Reconsideration of the perceptual model for many catchments, partly as a result of the greater appreciation of the contribution of subsurface flows to the hydrograph indicated by tracer studies, suggests a reconsideration of hydrological nomenclature.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Oliver E. J. Wing, Andrew M. Smith, Michael L. Marston, Jeremy R. Porter, Mike F. Amodeo, Christopher C. Sampson, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are difficult to validate. They generally output theoretical flood events of a given probability rather than an observed event that they can be tested against. Here, we adapt a US-wide flood model to enable the rapid simulation of historical flood events in order to more robustly understand model biases. For 35 flood events, we highlight the challenges of model validation amidst observational data errors yet evidence the increasing skill of large-scale models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith J. Beven, Mike J. Kirkby, Jim E. Freer, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 527–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments: the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL, and it considers what we might do now with the benefit of hindsight.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elisa Bozzolan, Elizabeth Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3161–3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slope properties and precipitation events (including climate change). The dominant failure processes are identified, and their relative role in slope failure is quantified. A new rainfall threshold is assessed for urbanised slopes. Instability
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
rulesare provided to recognise urbanised slopes most at risk. The methodology is suitable for regions with scarce field measurements and landslide inventories.
Katsuichiro Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, and Flavia De Luca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Donald P. Cummins, David B. Stephenson, and Peter A. Stott
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-91-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-91-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a novel and fast statistical method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing (ERF), a measure of the net effect of greenhouse gas emissions on Earth's energy budget. Our method works by inverting a recursive digital filter energy balance representation of global climate models and has been successfully validated using simulated data from UK Met Office climate models. We have estimated time series of historical ERF by applying our method to the global temperature record.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Thomas O'Shea, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2281–2305, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2281-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Outlined here is a multi-disciplinary framework for analysing and evaluating the nature of vulnerability to, and capacity for, flood hazard within a complex urban society. It provides scope beyond the current, reified, descriptors of
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
flood riskand models the role of affected individuals within flooded areas. Using agent-based modelling coupled with the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, potentially influential behaviours that give rise to the flood hazard system are identified and discussed.
Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2655–2670, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2655-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of time of concentration in the analysis of catchment responses dates back over 150 years. It is normally discussed in terms of the velocity of flow of a water particle from the furthest part of a catchment to the outlet. This is also the basis for the definition in the International Glossary of Hydrology, but this is in conflict with the way in which it is commonly used. This paper provides a clarification of the concept and its correct useage.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jim E. Freer, and Ross A. Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4323–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4323-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4323-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The accuracy of model simulations can be quantified with so-called efficiency metrics. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) has been often used in hydrology, but recently the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) is gaining in popularity. We show that lessons learned about which NSE scores are
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
acceptabledo not necessarily translate well into understanding of the KGE metric.
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim E. Freer, Thorsten Wagener, Penny J. Johnes, John P. Bloomfield, Sheila Greene, Christopher J. A. Macleod, and Sim M. Reaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4011–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jim E. Freer, Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Murray C. Peel, and Ross A. Woods
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2463–2480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models are used to predict river flows. A good model should represent the river basin to which it is applied so that flow predictions are as realistic as possible. However, many different computer models exist, and selecting the most appropriate model for a given river basin is not always easy. This study combines computer code for 46 different hydrological models into a single coding framework so that models can be compared in an objective way and we can learn about model differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Rosanna Lane, Toby Dunne, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Niall Quinn, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2285–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
DECIPHeR (Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of Hydrology) is a new modelling framework that can be applied from small catchment to continental scales for complex river basins. This paper describes the modelling framework and its key components and demonstrates the model’s ability to be applied across a large model domain. This work highlights the potential for catchment- to continental-scale predictions of streamflow to support robust environmental management and policy decisions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fanny Sarrazin, Andreas Hartmann, Francesca Pianosi, Rafael Rosolem, and Thorsten Wagener
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4933–4964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4933-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4933-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the first large-scale vegetation–recharge model for karst regions (V2Karst), which enables the analysis of the impact of changes in climate and land cover on karst groundwater recharge. We demonstrate the plausibility of V2Karst simulations against observations at FLUXNET sites and of controlling modelled processes using sensitivity analysis. We perform virtual experiments to further test the model and gain insight into its sensitivity to precipitation pattern and vegetation cover.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura C. Dawkins and David B. Stephenson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2933–2949, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2933-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2933-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard losses are sensitive to the dependency between extreme values of the hazard variable at different spatial locations. It is therefore important to correctly identify and quantify dependency to accurately model the hazard and its resulting losses. Through application to a large data set of windstorm hazard footprints, this study demonstrates how extreme-value methods can be used to explore extremal dependency and hazard losses in very high dimensional natural hazard data sets.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keith J. Beven, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Edoardo Borgomeo, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Trevor Page, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, Thorsten Wagener, and Matt Watson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Part 1 of this paper discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and implications of applying the principles to natural hazard science are discussed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhao Chen, Andreas Hartmann, Thorsten Wagener, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3807–3823, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3807-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3807-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates potential impacts of climate change on mountainous karst systems. Our study highlights the fast groundwater dynamics in mountainous karst catchments, which make them highly vulnerable to future changing-climate conditions. Additionally, this work presents a novel holistic modeling approach, which can be transferred to similar karst systems for studying the impact of climate change on local karst water resources.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andreas Paul Zischg, Guido Felder, Rolf Weingartner, Niall Quinn, Gemma Coxon, Jeffrey Neal, Jim Freer, and Paul Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2759–2773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model experiment and distributed different rainfall patterns over a mountain river basin. For each rainfall scenario, we computed the flood losses with a model chain. The experiment shows that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. Basin-specific characteristics such as the location of the main settlements within the floodplains play an additional important role in determining flood losses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter Metcalfe, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding is a significant hazard and extreme events in recent years have focused attention on effective means of reducing its risk. An approach known as natural flood management (NFM) seeks to increase flood resilience by a range of measures that work with natural processes. The paper develops a modelling approach to assess one type NFM of intervention – distributed additional hillslope storage features – and demonstrates that more strategic placement is required than has hitherto been applied.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon Brenner, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Jim Freer, and Andreas Hartmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 445–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-445-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-445-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we simulate groundwater levels with a semi-distributed karst model. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. We show that our approach is able to predict groundwater levels across all considered timescales up to the 75th percentile. We then use our approach to assess future changes in groundwater dynamics and show that projected climate changes may lead to generally lower groundwater levels.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, and Jim W. Hall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 611–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing the potential impacts of extreme events such as drought and flood requires large datasets of such events, especially when looking at the most severe and rare events. Using a state-of-the-art climate modelling infrastructure that is simulating large numbers of weather time series on volunteers' computers, we generate such a large dataset for the United Kingdom. The dataset covers the recent past (1900–2006) as well as two future time periods (2030s and 2080s).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kevin Sene, Wlodek Tych, and Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 127–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The theme of the paper is exploration of the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large lakes using a range of stochastic transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mary C. Ockenden, Wlodek Tych, Keith J. Beven, Adrian L. Collins, Robert Evans, Peter D. Falloon, Kirsty J. Forber, Kevin M. Hiscock, Michael J. Hollaway, Ron Kahana, Christopher J. A. Macleod, Martha L. Villamizar, Catherine Wearing, Paul J. A. Withers, Jian G. Zhou, Clare McW. H. Benskin, Sean Burke, Richard J. Cooper, Jim E. Freer, and Philip M. Haygarth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6425–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes simple models of phosphorus load which are identified for three catchments in the UK. The models use new hourly observations of phosphorus load, which capture the dynamics of phosphorus transfer in small catchments that are often missed by models with a longer time step. Unlike more complex, process-based models, very few parameters are required, leading to low parameter uncertainty. Interpretation of the dominant phosphorus transfer modes is made based solely on the data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, Nicholas A. Alexander, Widjo Kongko, and Abdul Muhari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2245–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2245-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2245-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops tsunami evacuation plan in Padang, Indonesia, known as one of the most affected areas due to the future tsunami events generated from the Sunda subduction zone. The evacuation plan is constructed using probabilistic earthquake source modelling considering all the uncertainty of the future events. The results show that probabilistic approach may produce comprehensive tsunami hazard assessments which can be used for building more reliable and robust evacuation plans.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jannis M. Hoch, Jeffrey C. Neal, Fedor Baart, Rens van Beek, Hessel C. Winsemius, Paul D. Bates, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3913–3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve flood hazard assessments, it is vital to model all relevant processes. We here present GLOFRIM, a framework for coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to increase the number of physical processes represented in hazard computations. GLOFRIM is openly available, versatile, and extensible with more models. Results also underpin its added value for model benchmarking, showing that not only model forcing but also grid properties and the numerical scheme influence output accuracy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katrien Van Eerdenbrugh, Stijn Van Hoey, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5315–5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Consistency in stage–discharge data is investigated using a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach). Various measurement stations in the UK, New Zealand and Belgium are selected based on their historical ratings information and their characteristics related to data consistency. When applying a BReach analysis on them, the methodology provides results that appear consistent with the available knowledge and thus facilitates a reliable assessment of (in)consistency in stage–discharge data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rob Lamb, Willy Aspinall, Henry Odbert, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1393–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Scour (erosion) during floods can cause bridges to collapse. Modern design and maintenance mitigates the risk, so failures are rare. The residual risk is uncertain, but expert knowledge can help constrain it. We asked 19 experts about scour risk using methods designed to treat judgements alongside other scientific data. The findings identified knowledge gaps about scour processes and suggest wider uncertainty about scour risk than might be inferred from observation, models or experiments alone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Diana Fuentes-Andino, Keith Beven, Sven Halldin, Chong-Yu Xu, José Eduardo Reynolds, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3597–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Reproduction of past floods requires information on discharge and flood extent, commonly unavailable or uncertain during extreme events. We explored the possibility of reproducing an extreme flood disaster using rainfall and post-event hydrometric information by combining a rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling tool within an uncertainty analysis framework. Considering the uncertainty in post–event data, it was possible to reasonably reproduce the extreme event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrés Payo, David Favis-Mortlock, Mark Dickson, Jim W. Hall, Martin D. Hurst, Mike J. A. Walkden, Ian Townend, Matthew C. Ives, Robert J. Nicholls, and Michael A. Ellis
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2715–2740, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2715-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
CoastalME is a generic modelling environment to simulate coastal landscape evolution on spatial scales of kms to tens of kms, over decadal to centennial timescales. The novelty is that it simulates coastal morphology evolution as a set of dynamically linked raster and geometrical objects. Geometrical objects are derived from the raster structure providing a library of coastal elements (e.g. shoreline) that are conventionally used for modelling coastal behaviour on the timescales of interest.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christa Kelleher, Brian McGlynn, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3325–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Models are tools for understanding how watersheds function and may respond to land cover and climate change. Before we can use models towards these purposes, we need to ensure that a model adequately represents watershed-wide observations. In this paper, we propose a new way to evaluate whether model simulations match observations, using a variety of information sources. We show how this information can reduce uncertainty in inputs to models, reducing uncertainty in hydrologic predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anna Kuentz, Berit Arheimer, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2863–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2863-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Our study aims to explore and understand the physical controls on spatial patterns of pan-European flow signatures by taking advantage of large open datasets. Using tools like correlation analysis, stepwise regressions and different types of catchment classifications, we explore the relationships between catchment descriptors and flow signatures across 35 215 catchments which cover a wide range of pan-European physiographic and anthropogenic characteristics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joost Iwema, Rafael Rosolem, Mostaquimur Rahman, Eleanor Blyth, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2843–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2843-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2843-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated whether the simulation of water flux from the land surface to the atmosphere (using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator model) could be improved by replacing traditional soil moisture sensor data with data from the more novel Cosmic-Ray Neutron soil moisture sensor. Despite observed differences between the two types of soil moisture measurement data, we found no substantial differences in improvement in water flux estimation, based on multiple calibration experiments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laurent Guillaume Courty, Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña, and Paul David Bates
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1835–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1835-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1835-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents Itzï, a new free software for the simulation of floods. It is integrated with a geographic information system (GIS), which reduces the human time necessary for preparing the entry data and analysing the results of the simulation.
Itzï uses a simplified numerical scheme that permits to obtain results faster than with other types of models using more complex equations.
In this article, Itzï is tested with three cases that show its suitability to simulate urban floods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Susana Almeida, Elizabeth Ann Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides threaten communities globally, yet predicting their occurrence is challenged by uncertainty about slope properties and climate change. We present an approach to identify the dominant drivers of slope instability and the critical thresholds at which slope failure may occur. This information helps decision makers to target data acquisition to improve landslide predictability, and supports policy development to reduce landslide occurrence and impacts in highly uncertain environments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melissa Wood, Renaud Hostache, Jeffrey Neal, Thorsten Wagener, Laura Giustarini, Marco Chini, Giovani Corato, Patrick Matgen, and Paul Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4983–4997, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4983-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4983-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a methodology to calibrate the bankfull channel depth and roughness parameters in a 2-D hydraulic model using an archive of medium-resolution SAR satellite-derived flood extent maps. We used an identifiability methodology to locate the parameters and suggest the SAR images which could be optimally used for model calibration. We found that SAR images acquired around the flood peak provide best calibration potential for the depth parameter, improving when SAR images are combined.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mingjin Tang, James Keeble, Paul J. Telford, Francis D. Pope, Peter Braesicke, Paul T. Griffiths, N. Luke Abraham, James McGregor, I. Matt Watson, R. Anthony Cox, John A. Pyle, and Markus Kalberer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15397–15412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15397-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15397-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have investigated for the first time the heterogeneous hydrolysis of ClONO2 on TiO2 and SiO2 aerosol particles at room temperature and at different relative humidities (RHs), using an aerosol flow tube. The kinetic data reported in our current and previous studies have been included in the UKCA chemistry–climate model to assess the impact of TiO2 injection on stratospheric chemistry and stratospheric ozone in particular.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rémi Dupas, Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Keith J. Beven, Patrick Durand, Philip M. Haygarth, Michael J. Hollaway, and Chantal Gascuel-Odoux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4819–4835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4819-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4819-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a parsimonious topography-based hydrologic model coupled with a soil biogeochemistry sub-model in order to improve understanding and prediction of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) transfer in agricultural headwater catchments. The modelling approach includes an analysis of the information contained in the calibration data and propagation of uncertainty in model predictions using a GLUE "limits of acceptability" framework.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Remko Nijzink, Christopher Hutton, Ilias Pechlivanidis, René Capell, Berit Arheimer, Jim Freer, Dawei Han, Thorsten Wagener, Kevin McGuire, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is typically treated as a calibration parameter in hydrological models and often considered to remain constant in time. In this paper we test the potential of a recently introduced method to robustly estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities exclusively based on climate data to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage under change (deforestation).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura C. Dawkins, David B. Stephenson, Julia F. Lockwood, and Paul E. Maisey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1999–2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A decline in damaging European windstorms has led to a reduction in insured losses in the 21st century. This decline is explored through understanding how and why a damaging windstorm characteristic has changed in recent years. For individual windstorm events, the area of damaging winds is shown to have reduced due to a significant decrease in extreme winds in north-western Europe. This decline is largely related to changes in a large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern in the North Atlantic.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
András Bárdossy, Yingchun Huang, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2913–2928, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2913-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2913-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the simultaneous calibration method to transfer model parameters from gauged to ungauged catchments. It is hypothesized that the model parameters can be separated into two categories: one reflecting the dynamic behavior and the other representing the long-term water balance. The results of three numerical experiments indicate that a good parameter transfer to ungauged catchments can be achieved through simultaneous calibration of models for a number of catchments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jon Olav Skøien, Konrad Bogner, Peter Salamon, Paul Smith, and Florian Pappenberger
Proc. IAHS, 373, 109–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-109-2016, 2016
Luke M. Western, Peter N. Francis, I. Matthew Watson, and Shona Mackie
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-92, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to infer the size distribution of airborne volcanic ash using satellite measurements. The size distribution of volcanic ash is typically described using two parameters, of which one is normally assumed and one can be measured using satellites. This work shows that it is possible, using a satellite with high spectral resolution, to retrieve both parameters. This work has been done to reduce uncertainty in mass calculations for airspace management during volcanic unrest.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katsuichiro Goda and Kamilla Abilova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 577–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-577-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the issues related to underestimation of earthquake magnitude in the context of tsunami early warning and tsunami risk assessment. The investigation is motivated by the past case of early warning performance and consequences during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. The quantitative tsunami loss results provide with valuable insights regarding the importance of deriving accurate seismic information as well as the potential biases of the anticipated tsunami consequences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Susana Almeida, Nataliya Le Vine, Neil McIntyre, Thorsten Wagener, and Wouter Buytaert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The absence of flow data to calibrate hydrologic models may reduce the ability of such models to reliably inform water resources management. To address this limitation, it is common to condition hydrological model parameters on regionalized signatures. In this study, we justify the inclusion of larger sets of signatures in the regionalization procedure if their error correlations are formally accounted for and thus enable a more complete use of all available information.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yakov A. Pachepsky, Gonzalo Martinez, Feng Pan, Thorsten Wagener, and Thomas Nicholson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-46, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models are frequently evaluated in terms of their accuracy to predict observations. However, we noticed that such approaches could not fully reflect the differences in their ability to represent the patterns of the observations nor the differences between the abstractions assumed in the models. We showed that information theory-based metrics are very useful for that purpose and provide additional criterion to choose the most appropriate models for specific watershed characterisitcs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
C. E. M. Lloyd, J. E. Freer, P. J. Johnes, and A. L. Collins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 625–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-625-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-625-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper examines the current methodologies for quantifying storm behaviour through hysteresis analysis, and explores a new method. Each method is systematically tested and the impact on the results is examined. Recommendations are made regarding the most effective method of calculating a hysteresis index. This new method allows storm hysteresis behaviour to be directly compared between storms, parameters, and catchments, meaning it has wide application potential in water quality research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
K. J. Beven, S. Almeida, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, S. Blazkova, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. C. Phillips, M. Simpson, P. J. Smith, D. B. Stephenson, T. Wagener, M. Watson, and K. L. Wilkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. This is Part 2 of 2 papers reviewing these epistemic uncertainties and covers different areas of natural hazards including landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. It is based on the work of the UK CREDIBLE research consortium.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
K. J. Beven, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. W. Hall, T. Page, J. C. Phillips, J. T. Rougier, M. Simpson, D. B. Stephenson, P. J. Smith, T. Wagener, and M. Watson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. This is Part 1 of 2 papers reviewing these epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. It is based on the work of the CREDIBLE research consortium on Risk and Uncertainty in Natural Hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. Iwema, R. Rosolem, R. Baatz, T. Wagener, and H. R. Bogena
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3203–3216, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3203-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The cosmic-ray neutron sensor can provide soil moisture content averages over areas of roughly half a kilometre by half a kilometre. Although this sensor is usually calibrated using soil samples taken on a single day, we found that multiple sampling days are needed. The calibration results were also affected by the soil wetness conditions of the sampling days. The outcome of this study will help researchers to calibrate/validate new cosmic-ray neutron sensor sites more accurately.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
A. Hartmann, T. Gleeson, R. Rosolem, F. Pianosi, Y. Wada, and T. Wagener
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1729–1746, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1729-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1729-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach to assess karstic groundwater recharge over Europe and the Mediterranean. Cluster analysis is used to subdivide all karst regions into four typical karst landscapes and to simulate karst recharge with a process-based karst model. We estimate its parameters by a combination of a priori information and observations of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Independent observations of recharge that present large-scale models significantly under-estimate karstic recharge.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. F. Roberts, A. J. Champion, L. C. Dawkins, K. I. Hodges, L. C. Shaffrey, D. B. Stephenson, M. A. Stringer, H. E. Thornton, and B. D. Youngman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014
R. Hostache, C. Hissler, P. Matgen, C. Guignard, and P. Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3539–3551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3539-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3539-2014, 2014
F. N. Outram, C. E. M. Lloyd, J. Jonczyk, C. McW. H. Benskin, F. Grant, M. T. Perks, C. Deasy, S. P. Burke, A. L. Collins, J. Freer, P. M. Haygarth, K. M. Hiscock, P. J. Johnes, and A. L. Lovett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3429–3448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3429-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3429-2014, 2014
I. K. Westerberg, L. Gong, K. J. Beven, J. Seibert, A. Semedo, C.-Y. Xu, and S. Halldin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2993–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, 2014
C. C. Sampson, T. J. Fewtrell, F. O'Loughlin, F. Pappenberger, P. B. Bates, J. E. Freer, and H. L. Cloke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2305–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014, 2014
M. J. Tang, P. J. Telford, F. D. Pope, L. Rkiouak, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, J. A. Pyle, J. McGregor, I. M. Watson, R. A. Cox, and M. Kalberer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6035–6048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6035-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6035-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
J. D. Herman, J. B. Kollat, P. M. Reed, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5109–5125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5109-2013, 2013
A. Hartmann, M. Weiler, T. Wagener, J. Lange, M. Kralik, F. Humer, N. Mizyed, A. Rimmer, J. A. Barberá, B. Andreo, C. Butscher, and P. Huggenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3305–3321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3305-2013, 2013
D. Leedal, A. H. Weerts, P. J. Smith, and K. J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 177–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-177-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-177-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at catchment scale and in a large basin context
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Detection of flooding by overflows of the drainage network: Application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2621, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000x speedups. The model also generalizes to larger, more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 flood killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2458, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
AIR Worldwide: Study of impact and the insurance and economic cost of a major earthquake in British Columbia and Ontario/Québec, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Toronto, Canada, 345 p., 2013.
Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng. Geol., 73, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007, 2004.
Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del, Pozo, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cevennes Region, Adv. Geosci., 29, 13–20, 2011.
Almeida, S., Holcombe, E. A., Pianosi, F., and Wagener, T.: Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017, 2017.
Alonso, E. E., Gens, A., and Delahaye, C. H.: Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study, Hydrogeol. J., 11, 174–192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-002-0245-1, 2003.
Anderson, J. G. and Brune, J. N.: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis without the ergodic assumption, Seismol. Res. Lett., 70, 19–28, 1999.
Annaka, T., Satake, K., Sakakiyama, T., Yanagisawa, K., and Shuto, N.: Logic-tree approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and its applications to the Japanese coasts, Pure Appl. Geophys., 164, 577–592, 2007.
Arason, P., Petersen, G. N., and Bjornsson, H.: Observations of the altitude of the volcanic plume during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, April–May 2010, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 3, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-3-9-2011, 2011.
Aronica, G., Hankin, B. G., and Beven, K. J.: Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data, Adv. Water Resour., 22, 349–365, 1998.
Aspinall, W. P.: Scientific uncertainties – a perspective from probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for low seismicity areas, in: Risk and Uncertainty Assessment in Natural Hazards, edited by: Rougier, J. C., Sparks, R. S. J., and Hill,, L., Cambridge University Press, Chapter 8, 234–274, 2013.
Aspinall, W. P. and Cooke, R. M.: Expert elicitation and judgement, in: Risk and Uncertainty Assessment in Natural Hazards, edited by: Rougier, J. C., Sparks, R. S. J., and Hill, L., Cambridge University Press, Chapter 4, 64–99, 2013.
Atkinson, G. M.: Single-station sigma, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 446–455, 2006.
Bachmair, S., Kohn, I., and Stahl, K.: Exploring the link between drought indicators and impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1381–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1381-2015, 2015.
Barmah, D. and Varley, I.: Hydrologic modelling practices for estimating low flows – guidelines, National Water Commission, Canberra, 2012.
Barredo, J. I.: No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010, 2010.
Bartholmes, J. C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M. H., and Gentilini, S.: The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 141–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-141-2009, 2009.
Bates, P. D., Pappengberger, F., and Romanowicz, R. J.: Uncertainties in flood inundation modelling, in: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, edited by: Beven, K. J. and Hall, J. W., Imperial College Press: London, 232–269, 2014.
Begnudelli, L. and Sanders, B. F.: Simulation of the St. Francis dam-break flood, J. Eng. Mechan., 133, 1200–1212, 2007.
Berry, R., Horritt, M., Dewar, C. Baigent, S., and Martin, J.: Development of flood mapping formats for the Lee ctchment flood risk assessment and management study, in: Proc. National Hydrology Seminar, 2008, Hydrology in Spatial Planning and Development, Irish National Committee IHP, 2008.
Beven, K. J.: Towards the use of catchment geomorphology in flood frequency predictions, Earth Surf. Process. Landf., V12, 69–82, 1987.
Beven, K. J.: Environmental Modelling – An Uncertain Future?, Routledge: London, 2009.
Beven, K. J.: Causal models as multiple working hypotheses about environmental processes, Comptes Rendus Geoscience, Académie de Sciences, Paris, 344, 77–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2012.01.005, 2012.
Beven, K. J.: So how much of your error is epistemic? Lessons from Japan and Italy, Hydrol. Process., 27, 1677–1680, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9648, 2013.
Beven, K. J.: EGU Leonardo Lecture: Facets of Hydrology – epistemic error, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication, Hydrol. Sci. J., 61, 1652–1665, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761, 2016.
Beven, K. J. and Alcock, R.: Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision making for water management under uncertainty, Freshw. Biol., 56, 124–132, 2012.
Beven, K. J. and Lamb, R.: The uncertainty cascade in model fusion, in: Integrated Environmental Modelling to Solve Real World Problems: Methods, Vision and Challenges, edited by: Riddick, A. T., Kessler, H., and Giles, J. R. A., Geological Society, London, Special Publication 408, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP408.3, 2014.
Beven, K., Lamb, R., Leedal, D., and Hunter, N.: Communicating uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: a case study, Int. J. River Basin Manage., 13, 285–295, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.917318, 2015.
Beven, K. J., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Page, T., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Wagener, T., and Watson, M.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, 2018.
Beven, K., and Young, P.: A guide to good practice in modeling semantics for authors and referees, Water Resour. Res., 49, 5092–5098, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20393, 2013.
Blauhut, V., Gudmundsson, L., and Stahl, K.: Towards pan-European drought risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008, 2015.
Blazkova, S. and Beven, K. J.: Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation of subcatchment rainfalls and discharges with the aim of improving dam safety assessment in a large basin in the Czech Republic, J. Hydrol., 292, 153–172, 2004.
Blazkova, S. and Beven, K. J.: A limits of acceptability approach to model evaluation and uncertainty estimation in flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation: Skalka catchment, Czech Republic, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00B16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006726, 2009.
Bloomfield, J. P. and Marchant, B. P.: Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4769–4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013, 2013.
Blöschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Wagener, T., Viglione, A., and Savenije, H.: Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Synthesis across Processes, Places and Scales, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 2013.
Bommer, J. J.: Challenges of building logic trees for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Earthq. Spec., 28, 1723–1735, 2012.
Bonadonna, C. and Houghton, B. F.: Total grain-size distribution and volume of tephra-fall deposits, Bull. Volcanol., 67, 441–456, 2005.
Bonazzi, A., Cusack, S., Mitas, C., and Jewson, S.: The spatial structure of European wind storms as characterized by bivariate extreme-value Copulas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1769–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1769-2012, 2012.
Borgomeo, E., Hall, J. W., Fung, F., Watts, G., Colquhoun, K., and Lambert, C.: Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties, Water Resour. Res., 50, 6850–6873, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015558, 2014.
Brodin, E. and Rootzén, H.: Univariate and bivariate GPD methods for predicting extreme wind storm losses, Insurance: Mathe. Econom., 44, 345–356, 2009.
Brown, J. D.: Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., 29, 367–381, 2004.
Brown, J. D.: Prospects for the open treatment of uncertainty in environmental research, Prog. Phys. Geog., 34, 75–100, 2010.
Budnitz, R. J., Apostolakis, G., Boore, D. M., Cluff, L. S., Coppersmith, K. J., Cornell, C. A., and Morris, P. A.: Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on the uncertainty and use of experts, NUREG/CR-6372, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C., 1997.
Bürgmann, R. and Chadwell, D.: Seafloor geodesy, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 42, 509–534, 2014.
Bursik, M. I., Carey, S. N., and Sparks, R. S. J.: A gravity current mode for the May 18, 1980 Mount St. Helens plume, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1663–1666, 1992a.
Bursik, M. I., Sparks, R. S. J., Gilbert, J. S., and Carey, S. N.: Sedimentation of tephra by volcanic plumes: I. Theory and its comparison with a study of the Fogo A plinian deposit, Sao Miguel (Azores), Bull. Volcanol., 54, 329–344, 1992b.
Cameron, D., Beven, K. J., Tawn, J., Blazkova, S., and Naden, P.: Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty), J. Hydrol., 219, 169–187, 1999.
Cameron, D., Beven, K., and Naden, P.: Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation under climate change (with uncertainty), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 393–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-4-393-2000, 2000.
Cao, Z., Pender, G., Wallis, S., and Carling, P.: Computational dam-break hydraulics over erodible sediment bed, ASCE J. Hydraul. Eng., 130, 689–703, 2004.
Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?, J. Climate, 23, 1621–1635, 2010.
Cepeda, J., Colonnelli, S., Meyer, N. K., and Kronholm, K.: SafeLand Deliverable D1.5: Statistical and empirical models for prediction of precipitation-induced landslides, available at: http://www.safeland-fp7.eu/ (last access: October 2018), 2012.
Chandler, R. E., Isham, V. S., Northrop, P. J., Wheater, H. S., Onof, C. J., and Leith, N. A.: Uncertainty in rainfall inputs, in: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, edited by: Beven, K. J. and Hall, J. W., Imperial College Press: London, 101–152, 2014.
Chatterton, J., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Priest, S.: The many uncertainties in flood loss assessments, in: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, edited by: Beven, K. J. and Hall, J. W., Imperial College Press: London, 335–356, 2014.
Cho, S. E.: Effects of spatial variability of soil properties on slope stability, Eng. Geol., 92, 97–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.03.006, 2007.
Christian, J. T., Ladd, C. C., and Baecher, G. B.: Reliability applied to slope stability analysis, ASCE J. Geotech. Eng., 120, 2180–2207, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9410(1994)120:12(2180), 1994.
Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., and Andronico, D.: Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): Towards a new classification scheme, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 178, 331–346, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.04.024, 2008.
Cornell, C. A.: Engineering seismic risk analysis, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 1583–1606, 1968.
Cornell, C. A. and Winterstein, S. R.: Temporal and magnitude dependence in earthquake recurrence models, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 78, 1522–1537, 1988.
Corominas, J., van Westen, C., Frattini, P., Cascini, L., Malet, J. P., Fotopoulou, S., Catani, F., Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Mavrouli, O., Agliardi, F., Pitilakis, K., Winter, M. G., Pastor, M., Ferlisi, S., Tofani, V., Hervas, J., and Smith, J. T.: Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk, B. Eng. Geol. Environ., 73, 209–263, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-013-0538-8, 2014.
Costa, A., Folch, A., and Macedonio, G.: Density-driven transport in the umbrella region of volcanic clouds: Implications for tephra dispersion models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4823–4827, 2013.
Cox, R. T.: Probability ,frequency and reasonable expectation, Am. J. Phys., 14, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1119/1.1990764, 1946.
Cox Jr., L. A.: Confronting deep uncertainties in risk analysis, Risk Anal., 32, 1607–1629, 2012.
Coxon, G., Freer, J., Westerberg, I. K., Wagener, T., Woods, R., and Smith, P. J.: A novel framework for discharge uncertainty quantification applied to 500 UK gauging stations, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5531–5546, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016532, 2015.
Crovelli, R. A.: Probabilistic models for estimation of number and cost of landslides, Open-File Report 00-249, US Geological Survey, available at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2000/ofr-00-0249/ProbModels.html (last access: October 2018), 2000.
Dacre, H. F., Harvey, N. J., Webley, P. W., and Morton, D.: How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3534–3547, 2016.
Day, S. and Fearnley, C.: A classification of mitigation strategies for natural hazards: implications for the understanding of interactions between mitigation strategies, Nat. Hazards, 79, 1219–1238, 2015.
de Finetti, B.: La Prévision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives, Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré, 1937.
de Finetti, B.: Theory of Probability, (trans. A Machi and AFM Smith) 2 volumes, Wiley: New York, 1974.
Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M. A., Kleinn, J., and Appenzeller, C.: The return period of wind storms over Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 437–459, 2009.
Della-Marta, P. M., Liniger, M. A., Appenzeller, C., Bresch, D. N., Köllner-Heck, P., and Muccione, V.: Improved estimates of the European winter windstorm climate and the risk of reinsurance loss using climate model data, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 49, 2092–2120, 2010.
Denlinger, R. P., Pavolonis, M. J., and Sieglaff, J.: A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D13208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017732, 2012.
De Risi, R. and Goda, K.: Probabilistic earthquake–tsunami multi-hazard analysis: application to the Tohoku region, Japan, Front. Built Environ., 2, 25, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2016.00025, 2016.
De Roo, A., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Nobert, S., Cloke, H., Demeritt, D., and Pappenberger, F.: Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), Int. J. Digit. Earth, 4 (Sup1), 77–90, 2011.
Devenish, B. J., Francis, P. N., Johnson, B. T., Sparks, R. S. J., and Thomson, D. J.: Sensitivity analysis of dispersion modeling of volcanic ash from Eyjafjallajökull in May 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D00U21, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016782, 2012a.
Devenish, B. J., Thomson, D. J., Marenco, F., Leadbetter, S. J., Ricketts, H., and Dacre, H. F.: A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations, Atmos. Environ., 48, 152–164, 2012b.
DPC: Pianificazione Nazionale d'Emergenza dell'Area Vesuviana, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. Rome, 157 pp., 1995 (in Italian).
DPC: Proposta di aggiornamento della Pianificazione Nazionale d'Emergenza dell'Area Vesuviana, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Rome, 55 pp., 2001 (in Italian).
Duan, K. and Mei, Y.: Comparison of Meteorological, Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Responses to Climate Change and Uncertainty Assessment, Water Resour. Manage., 28, 5039–5054, 2014.
Dussauge-Peisser, C., Helmstetter, A., Grasso, J.-R., Hantz, D., Desvarreux, P., Jeannin, M., and Giraud, A.: Probabilistic approach to rock fall hazard assessment: potential of historical data analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2, 15–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2-15-2002, 2002.
Eagleson, P. S.: Dynamics of flood frequency, Water Resour. Res., 8, 878–898, 1972.
El-Ramly, H., Morgenstern, N. R., and Cruden, D. M.: Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice, Canad. Geotech. J., 39, 665–683, https://doi.org/10.1139/T02-034, 2002.
Eastoe, E. F. and Tawn, J. A.: Statistical models for over-dispersion in the frequency of peaks over threshold data from UK flow series, Water Resour. Res., 46, W02510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007757, 2010.
Ercanoglu, M. and Gokceoglu, C.: Assessment of landslide susceptibility for a landslide-prone area (north of Yenice, NW Turkey) by fuzzy approach, Environ. Geol., 41, 720–730, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-001-0454-2, 2002.
Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., and Ferro, C. A.: Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms, The Annal. Appl. Stat., 8, 2223–2246, 2014.
Esposti Ongaro, T., Cavazzoni, C., Erbacci, G., Neri, A., and Salvetti, M. V.: A parallel multiphase flow code for the 3D simulation of explosive volcanic eruptions, Parall. Comp., 33, 541–560, 2007.
Esposti Ongaro, T., Neri, A., Menconi, G., De'Michieli Vitturi, M., Marianelli, P., Cavazzoni, C., Erbacci, G., and Baxter, P. J.: Transient 3D numerical simulations of column collapse and pyroclastic flow scenarios at Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 178, 378–396, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.06.036, 2008.
Folch, A., Costa, A., and Basart, S.: Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds, Atmos. Environ., 48, 165–183, 2012.
Francis, P. N., Cooke, M. C., and Saunders, R. W.: Retrieval of physical properties of volcanic ash using Meteosat: A case study from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D00U09, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016788, 2012.
Gariano, S. L., Brunetti, M. T., Iovine, G., Melillo, M., Peruccacci, S., Terranova, O. G., Vennari, C., and Guzzetti, F.: Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecating in Sicily, Southern Italy, Geomorphology, 228, 653–665, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1129-0, 2015.
Gallegos, H. A., Schubert, J. E., and Sanders, B. F.: Two-dimensional, high-resolution modeling of urban dam-break flooding: a case study of Baldwin Hills, California, Adv. Water Resour., 32, 1323–1335, 2009.
Gens, A.: Soil-environment interactions in geotechnical engineering, Geotechnique, 60, 3–74, https://doi.org/10.1680/Geot.9.P.109, 2010.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B.: Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 52.4, 680–722, 2014.
Goda, K. and Hong, H. P.: Optimal seismic design for limited planning time horizon with detailed seismic hazard information, Struct. Safety, 28, 247–260, 2006.
Goda, K., Mai, P. M., Yasuda, T., and Nobuhito Mori, N.: Sensitivity of tsunami wave profile and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Earth Planet. Space, 66, 105, https://doi.org/10.1186/1880-5981-66-105, 2014.
Goda, K., Yasuda, T., Mori, N., and Maruyama, T.: New scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters for stochastic tsunami simulation, Coast. Eng. J., 58, 1650010, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563416500108, 2016.
Goda, K., De Risi, R., and Rossetto, T.: Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 31, 2337–2355, 2017.
Goda, K. and Song, J.: Uncertainty modeling and visualization for tsunami hazard and risk mapping: a case study for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 30, 2271–2285, 2016.
Goldfinger, C., Nelson, C. H., Morey, A. E., Johnson, J. E., Patton, J., Karabanov, E., Gutierrez-Pastor, J., Eriksson, A. T., Gracia, E., Dunhill, G., Enkin, R. J., Dallimore, A., and Vallier, T.: Turbidite event history – methods and implications for Holocene paleoseismicity of the Cascadia subduction zone, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1661–F, 170 p., 2012.
Gouldby, B. P., Sayers, P. B., Panzeri, M. C., and Lanyon, J. E.: Development and application of efficient methods for the forward propagation of epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within complex broad-scale flood risk system models T, Can. J. Civil Eng., 37, 955–967, 2010.
Griffiths, D. V. and Fenton, G. A.: Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 130, 507–518, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1090-0241(2004)130:5(507), 2004.
Griffiths, D. V., Huang, J. S., and Fenton, G. A.: Influence of Spatial Variability on Slope Reliability Using 2-D Random Fields, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 135, 1367–1378, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)gt.1943-5606.0000099, 2009.
Guzzetti, F., Carrara, A., Cardinali, M., and Reichenbach, P.: Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy, Geomorphology, 31, 181–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555x(99)00078-1, 1999.
Guzzetti, F., Reichenbach, P., Cardinali, M., Galli, M., and Ardizzone, F.: Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale, Geomorphology, 72, 272–299, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2005.06.002, 2005.
Guzzetti, F., Reichenbach, P.. Ardizzone, F., Cardinali, M., and Galli, M.: Estimating the quality of landslide susceptibility models, Geomorphology, 81, 166–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.04.007, 2006.
Hall, J. W., Rubio, E., and Anderson, M. G.: Random sets of probability measures in slope hydrology and stability analysis, ZAMM: J. Appl. Mathe. Mechan., 84, 710–720, 2004.
Hall, J. W., Manning, L. J., and Hankin, R. K.: Bayesian calibration of a flood inundation model using spatial data, Water Resour. Res., 47, W05529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008541, 2011.
Hall, J. W., Watts, G., Keil, M., de Vial, L., Street, R., Conlan, K., O'Connell, P. E., Beven, K. J., and Kilsby, C. J.: Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate, CIWEM Water Environ. J., 26, 118–129, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x, 2012.
Haneberg, W. C.: A rational probabilistic method for spatially distributed landslide hazard assessment, Environ. Eng. Geosci., 10, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.2113/10.1.27, 2004.
Harou, J. J., Medellín-Azuara, J., Zhu, T., Tanaka, S. K. Lund, J. R., Stine, S., Olivares, M. A., and Jenkins, M. W.: Economic consequences of optimized water management for a prolonged, severe drought in California, Water Resour. Res., 46, W05522, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007681, 2010.
Hartmann, A., Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., and Wagener, T.: Enhanced recharge rates by altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 2842–2847, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1614941114, 2017.
Harvey, N. J., Huntley, N., Dacre, H. F., Goldstein, M., Thomson, D., and Webster, H.: Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018.
Helton, J. C. and Burmaster, D. E.: Guest editorial: treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 54, 91–94, 1996.
Hencher, S. R.: Preferential flow paths through soil and rock and their association with landslides, Hydrol. Process., 24, 1610–1630, 2010.
Hervouet, J. M. and Petitjean, A.: Malpasset dam-break revisited with two-dimensional computations, J. Hydraul. Res., 37, 777–788, 1999.
Hobbs, P. V., Radke, L. F., Lyons, J. H., Ferek, R. J., Coffman, D. J., and Casadevall, T. J.: Airbourne measurements of particle and gas emissions from the 1990 volcanic eruptions of Mount Redoubt, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 735–752, 1991.
Hodge, M., Biggs, J., Goda, K., and Aspinall, W. P.: Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift, Nat. Hazards , 76, 1781–1806, 2015.
Hoffman, F. O. and Hammonds, J. S.: Propagation of uncertainty in risk assessments: the need to distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability, Risk Anal., 14, 707–712, 1994.
Holcombe, E., Smith, S., Wright, E., and Anderson, M. G.: An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean, Nat. Hazards, 61, 351–385, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9920-7, 2012.
Hong, X., Guo, S., Zhou, Y., and Xiong, L.: Uncertainties in assessing hydrological drought using streamflow drought index for the upper Yangtze River basin, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 29, 1235–1247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0949-5, 2014.
Horspool, N., Pranantyo, I., Griffin, J., Latief, H., Natawidjaja, D. H., Kongko, W., Cipta, A., Bustaman, B., Anugrah, S. D., and Thio, H. K.: A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3105–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3105-2014, 2014.
House-Peters, L. A. and Chang, H.: Urban water demand modeling: Review of concepts, methods, and organizing principles, Water Resour. Res., 47, W05401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009624, 2011.
Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H. H. S., Bloschl, G., McDonnell, J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H., Hughes, D., Hut, R., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H., Woods, R., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C.: A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) – a review, Hydrol. Sci. J., 58, 1–58, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.803183, 2013.
Hu, Y.-M., Liang, Z.-M., Liu, Y.-W., Wang, J., Yao, L., and Ning, Y.: Uncertainty analysis of SPI calculation and drought assessment based on the application of Bootstrap, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 1847–1857, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4091, 2014.
Hungr, O., Evans, S. G., and Harzard, J.: Magnitude and frequency of rock falls and rock slides along the main transportation corridors of southwestern British Columbia, Canad. Geotech. J., 36, 224–238, https://doi.org/10.1139/Cgj-36-2-224, 1999.
Hürlimann, M., Rickenmann, D., Medina, V., and Bateman, A.: Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment, Eng. Geol., 102, 152–163, 2008.
ICOLD: Dam Failures, Statistical Analysis, Bulletin 99, Commission Internationale des Grands Barrages, Paris, 73 pp., 1995.
IH: The Flood Estimation Handbook, (5 vols.), Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford, UK, 1999.
Jenkins, K.: Indirect economic losses of drought under future projections of climate change: a case study for Spain, Nat. Hazards, 69, 1967–1986, 2013.
Johnes, M., Aberfan and the Management of Trauma: Disasters, 24, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-7717.00128, 2000.
Jones, A. R., Thomson, D. J., Hort, M. C., and Devenish, B. J.: The U.K. Met Offices Next-Generation Atmospheric Dispersion Model, NAME III, Air Pollut. Model. Appl., XVII 6, 580–589, 2007.
Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Barredo, J. I., Bates, P. D., Feyen, L., Gericke, A., Neal, J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012.
Jorgensen, B., Graymore, M., and O'Toole, K.: Household water use behaviour: An integrated model, J. Environ. Manage., 91, 227–236, 2009.
Kagan, Y. Y. and Jackson, D. D.: Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 1181–1191, 2013.
Kaiser, G., Scheele, L., Kortenhaus, A., Løvholt, F., Römer, H., and Leschka, S.: The influence of land cover roughness on the results of high resolution tsunami inundation modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2521–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2521-2011, 2011.
Karremann, M. K., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Klawa, M.: Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 124016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124016, 2014.
Kasprzyk, J. R., Reed, P. M., Kirsch, B. R., and Characklis, G. W.: Managing population and drought risks using many-objective water portfolio planning under uncertainty, Water Resour. Res., 45, W12401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008121, 2009.
Keef, C., Tawn, J. A., and Lamb. R.: Estimating the probability of widespread flood events, Environmetrics, 24.1, 13–21, 2013.
Keefer, D. K., Wilson, R. C., Mark, R. K.. Brabb, E. E., Brown, W. M., Ellen, S. D. , Harp, E. L., Wieczorek, G. F., Alger, C. S., and Zatkin, R. S.: Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall, Science, 238, 921–925, https://doi.org/10.2307/1700926, 1987.
Kenney, D. S., Goemans, C., Klein, R., Lowrey, J., and Reidy, K.: Residential Water Demand Management: Lessons from Aurora, Colorado, JAWRA J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 44, 192–207, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00147.x, 2008.
Keynes, J. M.: Treatise on Probability, Macmillan & Co.: London, 1921.
Khare, S., Bonazzi, A., Mitas, C., and Jewson, S.: Modelling clustering of natural hazard phenomena and the effect on re/insurance loss perspectives, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1357–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1357-2015, 2015.
Knight, F. H.: Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Houghton-Mifflin Co. (reprinted University of Chicago Press, 1971), Boston, MA, 1921.
Koshimura, S., Oie, T., Yanagisawa, H., and Imamura, F.: Developing fragility functions for tsunami damage estimation using numerical model and post-tsunami data from Banda Aceh, Indonesia, Coast. Eng. J., 51, 243–273, 2009.
Koutsoyiannis, D.: Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481, 2003.
Koutsoyiannis, D.: HESS Opinions “A random walk on water”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 585–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010.
Koutsoyiannis, D. and Montanari, A.: Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resour. Res., 43, W05429, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
Kristiansen, N. I., Stohl, A., Prata, A. J., Bukowiecki, N., Dacre, H. F., Eckhardt, S., Henne, S., Hort, M. C., Johnson, B. T., Marenco, F., Neininger, B., Reitebuch, O., Seibert, P., Thomson, D. J., Webster, H. N., and Weinzierl, B.: Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D00U11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016844, 2012.
Kulkarni, R. B., Youngs, R. R., and Coppersmith, K. J.: Assessment of confidence intervals for results of seismic hazard analysis, Proc. Eighth World Conf. Earthq. Eng., 1, 263–270, 1984.
Lamb, R. and Kay, A. L.: Confidence intervals for a spatially generalized, continuous simulation flood frequency model for Great Britain, Water Resour. Res., 40, W07501, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR002428, 2004.
Lamb, R., Keef, C., Tawn, J., Laeger, S., Meadowcroft, I., Surendran, S., Dunning, P., and Batstone, C.: A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts, J. Flood Risk Manage., 3, 323–336, 2010.
Lamb, R., Aspinall, W., Odbert, H., and Wagener, T.: Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1393–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017, 2017.
Lavallee, D., Liu, P., and Archuleta, R. J.: Stochastic model of heterogeneity in earthquake slip spatial distributions, Geophys. J. Int., 165, 622–640, 2006.
Lee, E. M. and Jones, D. K. C.: Landslide Risk Assessment, Thomas Telford Publishing, London, 2004.
Lee, K. H., Wong, M. S., Chung, S.-R., and Sohn, E.: Improved volcanic ash detection based on a hybrid reverse absorption technique, Atmos. Res., 143, 31–42, 2014.
Lin, J. W., Chen, C. W., and Peng, C. Y.: Potential hazard analysis and risk assessment of debris flow by fuzzy modeling, Nat. Hazards, 64. 273–282, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0236-z, 2012.
López López, P., Verkade, J. S., Weerts, A. H., and Solomatine, D. P.: Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3411–3428, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, 2014.
Ludwig, P., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Gray, S. L.: The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1729–1741, 2014.
Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C.B., Horspool, N., Smebye, H., de Bono, A., and Nadim, F.: Global tsunami hazard and exposure due to large co-seismic slip, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduc., 10, 406–418, 2014.
Mackie, S., Millington, S. C., and Watson, I. M.: How assumed composition affects the interpretation of satellite observations of volcanic ash, Meteorol. Appl., 21, 20–29, 2014.
Mackie, S. and Watson I. M.: The atmospheric dependency of the sensitivity of infrared satellite observations to thin volcanic ash clouds, J. Appl. Remote Sens., 9, 095080, https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.9.095080, 2015.
Mai, P. M. and Beroza, G. C.: A spatial random field model to characterize complexity in earthquake slip, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 107, 2308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000588, 2002.
Mailier, P. J., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A., and Hodges, K. I.: Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2224–2240, 2006.
Marsh, T., Cole, G., and Wilby, R.: Major droughts in England and Wales, 1800–2006, Weather, 62, 87–93, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.67, 2007.
Marzocchi, W. and Jordan, T. H.: Testing for ontological errors in probabilistic forecasting models of natural systems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 11973–11978, 2014.
Mastin, L. G., Guffanti, M., Servranckx, R., Webley, P. W., Barsotti, S., Dean, K., Durant, A., Ewert, J. W., Neri, A., Rose, W. I., Schneider, D. J., Siebert, L., Stunder, B., Swanson, G., Tupper, A., Volentik, A., and Waythomas, C. F.: A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 186, 10–21, 2009.
Matthews, M. V., Ellsworth, W. L., and Reasenberg, P. A.: A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 2233–2250, 2002.
Mazzocchi, M., Hansstein, F., and Ragona, M.: The 2010 volcanic ash cloud and its impact on the european airline industry, in: The economic impacts of air travel restrictions due to volcanic ash, CESifo Forum, 2/2010, Oxford Economics, 2010.
McCaffrey, R., King, R. W., Payne, S. J., and Lancaster, M.: Active tectonics of Northwestern US inferred from GPS-derived surface velocities, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 709–723, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009473, 2013.
McGuire, R.: Deterministic vs Probabilistic Earthquake Hazards and Risks, Soil Dynam. Earthq. Eng., 21, 377–384, 2001.
McGuire, R. K.: Seismic hazard and risk analysis, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA, 2004.
McIntyre, N., Lee, H., Wheater, H. S., Young, A., and Wagener, T.: Ensemble prediction of runoff in ungauged watersheds, Water Resour. Res., 41, W12434, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004289, 2005.
McMillan, H. K. and Westerberg, I. K.: Rating curve estimation under epistemic uncertainty, Hydrol. Process., 29, 1873–1882, 2015.
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Aaheim, A., Salen, H., and Wreford, A.: Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15, 737–762, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-010-9249-7, 2010.
Millington, S. C., Saunders, R. W., Francis, P. N., and Webster, H. N.: Simulated volcanic ash imagery: A method to compare NAME ash concentration forecasts with SEVIRI imagery for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D00U17, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016770, 2012.
Montanari, A. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems, Water Resour. Res., 48, W09555, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011412, 2012.
Moxnes, E. D., Kristiansen, N. I., Stohl, A., Clarisse, L., Durant, A., Weber K., and Vogel, A.: Separation of ash and sulfur dioxide during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 7477–7501, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021272, 2014.
Mulargia, F., Stark, P. B., and Geller, R. J.: Why is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) still used?, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 264, 63–75, 2017.
Murray, J. and Segall, P.: Testing time-predictable earthquake recurrence by direct measurement of strain accumulation and release, Nature, 419, 287–291, 2002.
Narasimhan, B. and Srinivasan, R.: Development and evaluation of Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) for agricultural drought monitoring, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 133, 69–88, 2005.
Neal, J., Keef, C., Bates, P., Beven, K. J., and Leedal, D.: Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence, Hydrol. Process., 27, 1349–1363, 2013.
NERC: The Flood Studies Report (5 vols.), Natural Environment research Council: Wallingford, UK, 1975.
Neri, A., Aspinall, W. P., Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., Andronico, D., Barsotti, S., Cole, P. D., Esposti Ongaro, T., Hincks, T. K., Macedonio, G., Papale, P., Rosi, M., Santacroce, R., and Woo, G.: Developing an Event Tree for Probabilistic Hazard and Risk Assessment at Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 178, 397–415, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.014, 2008.
Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., and Gidaspow, D.: Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows, J. Geophys. Res. Lett., 108, 2202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000508, 2003.
Nyambayo, V. P. and Potts, D. M.: Numerical simulation of evapotranspiration using a root water uptake model, Comput. Geotech., 37, 175–186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2009.08.008, 2010.
Neal, J., Keef, C., Bates, P., Beven, K. J., and Leedal, D. T.: Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence, Hydrol. Process., 27, 1349–1363, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9572, 2013.
Ólafsson, H. and Ágústsson, H.: The Freysnes downslope windstorm, Meteorol. Z., 16, 123–130, 2007.
Pappenberger, F., Beven, K. J., Frodsham, K., Romanovicz, R., and Matgen, P.: Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation models: a vulnerability weighted approach, J. Hydrol., 333, 275–287, 2007.
Paton, F. L., Maier, H. R., and Dandy, G. C.: Relative magnitudes of sources of uncertainty in assessing climate change impacts on water supply security for the southern Adelaide water supply system, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1643–1667, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20153, 2013.
Pavolonis, M. J., Feltz, W. F., Heidinger, A. K., and Gallina, G. M.: A Daytime Complement to the Reverse Absorption Technique for Improved Automated Detection of Volcanic Ash, J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 23, 1422–1444, 2006.
Pelley, R. E., Cooke, M. C., Manning, A. J., Thomson, D. J., Witham, C. S., and Hort, M. C.: Initial Implementation of an Inversion Technique for Estimating Volcanic Ash Source Parameters in Near Real time using Satellite Retrievals, Forecast. Res. Technical Report No: 604, Met Office, Exeter, 2015.
Penning-Rowsell, E. C.: A realistic assessment of fluvial and coastal flood risk in England and Wales, Trans. Inst. British Geogr., 40, 44–61, https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.12053, 2015.
Petley, D.: Global patterns of loss of life from landslides, Geology, 40, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.1130/G33217.1, 2012.
Pianosi, F., Beven, K., Freer, J., Hall, J. W., Rougier, J., Stephenson, D. B., and Wagener, T.: Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow, Environ. Model. Softw., 79, 214–232, 2016.
Pinto, J. G., Neuhaus, C. P., Leckebusch, G. C., Reyers, M., and Kerschgens, M.: Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical–dynamical downscaling approach, Tellus A, 62, 188–201, 2010.
Pinto, J. G., Gómara, I., Masato, G., Dacre, H. F., Woollings, T., and Caballero, R.: Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 13704–13719, 2014.
Podlaha, D., Bowen, S., Darbunyan, C., and Lörunc, M.: 2016 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report, AON Benfield, available at: http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/Documents/20170117-ab-if-annual-climate-catastrophe-report.pdf (last access: October 2018), 2017.
Potts, D. M., Dounias, G. T., and Vaughan, P. R.: Finite element analysis of progressive failure of Carsington embankment, tGéotechnique, 40, 79–101, https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1990.40.1.79, 1990.
Prata, A. J.: Observations of volcanic ash clouds in the 10–12 µm window using AVHRR/2 data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 10, 751–761, 1989.
Prata, F., Bluth, G. J. S., Rose, W. I., Schneider, D. J., and Tupper, A.: Comments on “Failures in detecting volcanic ash from a satellite-based technique”, Remote Sens. Environ., 78, 341–346, 2001.
Prudhomme, C. and Davies, H.: Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate, Clim. Change, 93, 197–222, 2009.
Prudhomme, C., Wilby, R. L., Crooks, S., Kay, A. L., and Reynard, N. S.: Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: application to flood risk, J. Hydrol., 390, 198–209, 2010.
Prudhomme, C., Crooks, S., Jackson, C., Kelvin, J., and Young, A.: Future Flows, Final Technical Report, SC090016/PN9, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, 2012.
Prudhomme, C., Haxton, T., Crooks, S., Jackson, C., Barkwith, A., Williamson, J., Kelvin, J., Mackay, J., Wang, L., Young, A., and Watts, G.: Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 101–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-101-2013, 2013.
Ray, P. and Brown, C.: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design – the Decision Tree Framework, World Bank Group Press, Washington, DC, 2015.
Refsgaard, J. C., Van der Sluijs, J. P., Brown, J., and Van der Keur, P.: A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error, Adv. Water Resour., 29, 1586–1597, 2006.
Refsgaard, J. C., van der Sluijs, J. P., Højberg, A. L., and Vanrolleghem, P. A.: Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process – A framework and guidance, Environ. Modell. Softw., 22, 1543–1556, 2007.
Refsgaard, J.-C., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Drews, M., Halsnæs, K., Jeppesen, E., Madsen, H., Markandya, A., Olesen, J. E., Porter, J. R., and Christensen, J. H.: The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies – A Danish water management example., Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change, 18, 337–359, 2013.
Renggli, D., Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., Gleixner, S. N., and Faust, E.: The skill of seasonal ensemble prediction systems to forecast wintertime windstorm frequency over the North Atlantic and Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3052–3068, 2011.
Ries, K. G. III, and Friesz, P. J.: Methods for estimating low-flow statistics for Massachusetts streams, U.S. Geological Survey, Water-Resources Investigations Report 00-4135, available at: http://water.usgs.gov/pubs/wri/wri004135/ (last access: October 2018), 2000.
Robine, J. M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J. P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003, Comptes Rendus Biol., 331, 171–178, 2008.
Romanowicz, R., Beven, K. J., and Tawn, J.: Bayesian calibration of flood inundation models, in: Floodplain Processes, edited by: Anderson, M. G., Walling, D. E., and Bates, P. D., 333–360, 1996.
Romanowicz, R. and Beven, K. J.: Bayesian estimation of flood inundation probabilities as conditioned on event inundation maps, Water Resour. Res., 39, W01073, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR001056, 2003.
Rose, W. I., Bluth, G. J. S., Schneider, D. J., Ernst, G. G. J., Riley, M., Henderson, L. J., and Mcgimsey, R. G.: Observations of Volcanic Clouds in Their First Few Days of Atmospheric Residence: The 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak, Mount Spurr Volcano, Alas. J. Geol., 109, 677–694, 2001.
Rose, W. I., Delene, D. J., Schneider, D. J., Bluth, G. J. S., Krueger, A. J., Sprod, I. E., McKee, C., Davies, H. L., and Ernst, G. G. J.: Ice in the 1994 Rabaul eruption cloud: implications for volcano hazard and atmospheric effects, Nature, 375, 477–479, 1995.
Rosi, M., Principe, C., and Vecci, R.: The 1631 eruption of Vesuvius reconstructed from the review of chronicles and study of deposits, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res, 58, 151–182, 1993.
Rougier, J. and Beven, K. J.: Model limitations: the sources and implications of epistemic uncertainty, in: Risk and uncertainty assessment for natural hazards, edited by: Rougier, J., Sparks, S., and Hill, L., Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 40–63, 2013.
Rougier, J., Sparks, S., and Hill, L.: Risk and uncertainty assessment for natural hazards, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2013.
Rubio, E., Hall, J. W., and Anderson, M. G.: Uncertainty analysis in a slope hydrology and stability model using probabilistic and imprecise information, Comput. Geotech., 31, 529–536, 2004.
Samaniego, L., Kumar,R., and Zink, M.: Implications of Parameter Uncertainty on Soil Moisture Drought Analysis in Germany, J. Hydrometeor., 14, 47–68, 2013.
Sampson, C. C., Fewtrell, T. J., Duncan, A., Shaad, K., Horritt, M. S., and Bates, P. D.: Using terrestrial laser scanning data to drive decimetric resolution urban inundation models, Adv. Water Resour., 41, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.02.010, 2012.
Sansom, P. G., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A., Zappa, G., and Shaffrey, L.: Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments, J. Climate, 26, 4017–4037, 2013.
Satake, K., Wang, K., and Atwater, B. F.: Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 108, 2535, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002521, 2003.
Savage, J. T. S., Pianosi, F., Bates, P. D., Freer, J., and Wagener, T.: Quantifying the importance of spatial resolution and other factors through global sensitivity analysis of a flood inundation model, Water Resour. Res., 52, 9146–9163, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018198, 2016.
Sayers, P. B., Hall, J. W., and Meadowcroft, I. C.: Towards risk-based flood hazard management in the UK, Proceedings of the ICE-Civil Engineering, 150, 36–42, 2002.
Schmehl, K. J., Haupt, S. E., and Pavolonis, M. J.: A Genetic Algorithm Variational Approach to Data Assimilation and Application to Volcanic Emissions, Pure Appl. Geophys., 169, 519–537, 2011.
Schwierz, C., Köllner-Heck, P., Mutter, E. Z., Bresch, D. N., Vidale, P. L., Wild, M., and Schär, C.: Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate, Clim. Change, 101, 485–514, 2010.
Sene, K., Weerts, A. H., Beven, K. J., Moore, R. J., Whitlow, C., Laeger, S., and Cross, R.: Uncertainty estimation in fluvial flood forecasting applications, in: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, edited by: Beven, K. J. and Hall, J. W., Imperial College Press: London, 462–498, 2014.
Shen, Z. K., Sun, J., Zhang, P., Wan, Y., Wang, M., Bürgmann, R., Zeng, Y., Gan, W., Liao, H., and Wang, Q.: Slip maxima at fault junctions and rupturing of barriers during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Nat. Geosci., 2, 718–724, 2009.
Shimazaki, K. and Nakata, T.: Time predictable recurrence for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 7, 279–282, 1980.
Simpson, J. J., Hufford, G., Pieri, D., and Berg, J.: Failures in detecting volcanic ash from a satellite-based technique, Remote Sens. Environ., 72, 191–217, 2000.
Simpson, M., James, R., Hall, J.W., Borgomeo, E., Ives, M. C., Almeida, S., Kingsborough, A., Economou, T., Stephenson, D., and Wagener, T.: Decision analysis for management of natural hazards, Ann. Rev. Environ. Resour., 41, 489–516, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-090011, 2016.
Singh, R., Wagener, T., Crane, R., Mann, M. E., and Ning, L.: A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds – Application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USA, Water Resour. Res., 50, 3409–3427, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014988, 2014.
Skarlatoudis, A. A., Somerville, P. G., Thio, H. K., and Bayless, J. R.: Broadband strong ground motion simulations of large subduction earthquakes, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 105, 3050–3067, 2015.
Smith, P. J., Beven, K. J., Weerts, A. H., and Leedal, D.: Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2783–2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012, 2012.
Smith, P. J., Beven, K. J., and Horsburgh, K.: Data Based Mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes: An example on the River Dee, UK, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 340–349, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1926, 2013a.
Smith, P. J., Panziera, L., and Beven, K. J.: Forecasting flash floods using Data Based Mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts, Hydrol. Sci. J., 59, 1403–1417, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.842647, 2013b.
Sparks, R. S. J.: The dimensions and dynamics of volcanic eruption columns, Bull. Volcanol., 48, 3–15, 1986.
Sparks, R. S. J., Bursik, M. I., Carey, S. N., Gilbert, J. S., Glaze, L. S., Sigurdsson, H., and Woods, A. W.: Volcanic Plumes, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 1997.
Stafford, P. J.: Crossed and nested mixed-effects approaches for enhanced model development and removal of the ergodic assumption in empirical ground-motion models, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 104, 702–719, 2014.
Stein, S., Geller, R. J., and Liu, M.: Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it, Tectonophysics, 562, 1–25, 2012.
Stein, S. and Stein, J. L.: Shallow versus deep uncertainties in natural hazard assessments, EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Un., 94, 133–134, 2013.
Stevenson, J. A., Millington, S. C., Beckett, F. M., Swindles, G. T., and Thordarson, T.: Big grains go far: understanding the discrepancy between tephrochronology and satellite infrared measurements of volcanic ash, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2069–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2069-2015, 2015.
Stohl, A., Prata, A. J., Eckhardt, S., Clarisse, L., Durant, A., Henne, S., Kristiansen, N. I., Minikin, A., Schumann, U., Seibert, P., Stebel, K., Thomas, H. E., Thorsteinsson, T., Tørseth, K., and Weinzierl, B.: Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4333–4351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011, 2011.
Svensson, C. and Jones, D. A.: Dependence between sea surge, river flow and precipitation in south and west Britain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 973–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-973-2004, 2004.
Sykes, L. R. and Menke, W.: Repeat times of large earthquakes: implications for earthquake mechanics and long-term prediction, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 1569–1596, 2006.
Taddeucci, J., Scarlato, P., Montanaro, C., Cimarelli, C., Del Bello, E., Freda, C., Andronico, D., Gudmundsson, M. T., and Dingwell, D. B.: Aggregation-dominated ash settling from the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic cloud illuminated by field and laboratory high-speed imaging, Geology, 39, 891–894, 2011.
Tappin, D. R., Grilli, S. T., Harris, J. C., Geller, R. J., Masterlark, T., Kirby, J. T., Shi, F., Ma, G., Thingbaijam, K. K. S., and Mai, P. M.: Did a submarine landslide contribute to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami?, Mar. Geol., 357, 344–361, 2014.
Tesfamariam, S. and Goda, K.: Handbook of Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems, Woodhead Publishing Ltd., Cambridge, United Kingdom, 884 p., 2013.
Thio, H. K., Somerville, P., and Ichinose, G.: Probabilistic analysis of strong ground motion and tsunami hazards in southeast Asia, J. Earthq. Tsunami, 1, 119–137, 2007.
Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., Klein, W., Holliday, J., Sá Martins, J. S., and Ferguson, C. D.: Ergodicity in natural earthquake fault networks, Phys. Rev. E, 75, 066107, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.066107, 2007.
Tomkins, K. M.: Uncertainty in streamflow rating curves: methods, controls and consequences, Hydrol. Process., 28, 464–481, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9567, 2014.
UNISDR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management (Geneva: United Nations), available at: www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/gar-pdf/GAR2015_EN.pdf (last access: 11 September 2018), 2015.
Van der Sluijs, J. P., Craye, M., Funtowicz, S., Kloprogge, P., Ravetz, J., and Risbey, J.: Combining quantitative and qualitative measures of uncertainty in model-based environmental assessment: the NUSAP system, Risk Anal., 25, 481–492, 2005.
van Gelder, P. and Vrijling, H.: Flood defence reliability analysis, in: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, edited by: Beven, K. J. and Hall, J. W., Imperial College Press: London, 270–296, 2014.
Van Loon, A. F., Stahl, K., Di Baldassarre, G., Clark, J., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., Gleeson, T., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Tallaksen, L. M., Hannaford, J., Uijlenhoet, R., Teuling, A. J., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B., Wagener, T., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016a.
Van Loon, A. F., Gleeson, T., Clark, J., Van Dijk, A. I., Stahl, K., Hannaford, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teuling, A. J., Tallaksen, L. M., Uijlenhoet, R., and Hannah, D. M.: Drought in the Anthropocene, Nat. Geosci., 9, 89–91, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2646 2016b.
Vitolo, R., Stephenson, D. B., Cook, I. M., and Mitchell-Wallace, K.: Serial clustering of intense European storms, Meteorol. Z., 18, 411–424, 2009.
Vogel, A.: The bibliography of the history of dam failures – an event based accident data collection, P. Europ. Safety Reliab. Conference, 2, 1361–1366, 2001.
Wagener, T., Wheater, H. S., and Gupta, H. V.: Rainfall-runoff modelling in gauged and ungauged catchments, World Scientific Press, UK, 2004.
Wagener, T. and Gupta, H. V.: Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 19, 378–387, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0006-5, 2005.
Wagener, T. and Wheater, H. S.: Parameter estimation and regionalization for continuous rainfall-runoff models including uncertainty, J. Hydrol., 320, 132–154, 2006.
Walker, G.: A critical examination of models and projections of demand in water utility resource planning in England and Wales, Int. J. Water Resour. Develop., 29, 352–372, 2012.
Walker, W. E., Harremoës, P., Rotmans, J., Van der Sluijs, J. P., Van Asselt, M. B. A., Janssen, P., and Krayer von Krauss, M. P.: Defining Uncertainty A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision, Support, Integr. Assess., 4, 5–17, 2003.
Warmink, J. J., Janssen, J. A. E. B., Booij, M. J., and Krol, M. S.: Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models, Environ. Modell. Softw., 25, 1518–1527, 2010.
Webster, H. N., Thomson, D. J., Johnson, B. T., Heard, I. P. C., Turnbull, K., Marenco, F., Kristiansen, N. I., Dorsey, J., Minikin, A., Weinzierl, B., Schumann, U., Sparks, R. S. J., Loughlin, S. C., Hort, M. C., Leadbetter, S. J., Devenish, B. J., Manning, A. J., Witham, C. S., Haywood, J. M., and Golding, B. W.: Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D00U08, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016790, 2012.
Western, L. M., Watson, M., and Francis, P.: Uncertainty in two-channel infrared remote sensing retrievals of a well-characterised volcanic ash cloud, Bull. Volcanol., 77, 67, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-015-0950-y, 2015.
Wilby, R. L. and Dessai, S.: Robust adaptation to climate change, Weather, 65, 180–185, 2010.
Wilby, R. L. and Harris, I.: A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK, Water Resour. Res., 42, W02419, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004065,2006.
Wilkins, K. L., Mackie, S., Watson, I. M., Webster, H. N., Thomson, D. J., and Dacre, H. F.: Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting, Ann. Geophys., 57, 1–6, 2014.
Wilkins, K. L., Watson, I. M., Kristiansen, N. I., Dacre, H. F., Webster, H. N., Thomson, D. J., and Prata, A. J.: Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 306–323, 2016.
Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., van Beek, L. P. H., Bierkens, M. F. P., Bouwman, A, Jongman, B., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Ligtvoet, W., Lucas, P. L., van Vuuren, D. P., and Ward, P. J.: Global drivers of future river flood risk, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 381–385, 2016.
Woo, G.: Calculating catastrophe, Imperial College Press, London, UK, 2011.
Woo, G. and Aspinall, W. P.: Thirty-Year Bayesian Updating of PSHA for Hinkley Point NPP. Paper presented to CSNI Workshop on “Testing PSHA Results and Benefit of Bayesian Techniques for Seismic Hazard Assessment”, 4–6 February 2015, Eucentre Foundation, Pavia, Italy; 13 pp., 2015.
Wood, M., Hostache, R., Neal, J., Wagener, T., Giustarini, L., Chini, M., Corato, G., Matgen, P., and Bates, P.: Calibration of channel depth and friction parameters in the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using medium-resolution SAR data and identifiability techniques, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4983–4997, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4983-2016, 2016.
Woodhouse, M. J., Hogg, A. J., Phillips, J. C., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Interaction between volcanic plumes and wind during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 118, 92–109, 2013.
Wu, T. H. and Abdel-Latif, M. A.: Prediction and mapping of landslide hazard, Canad. Geotech. J., 37, 781–795, https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-37-4-781, 2000.
Xia, J., Lin, B., Falconer, R. A., and Wang, G.: Modelling dam-break flows over mobile beds using a 2D coupled approach, Adv. Water Resour., 33, 171–183, 2010.
Yatheendradas, S., Wagener, T., Gupta, H.V., Schaeffer, M., Unkrich, K., and Goodrich, D.: Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a distributed semi-arid hydrologic model for flash flood forecasting, Water Resour. Res., 44, W05S19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR005940, 2008.
Yeo, G. L. and Cornell, C. A.: A probabilistic framework for quantification of aftershock ground-motion hazard in California: methodology and parametric study, Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 38, 45–60, 2009.
Young, P. C., Romanowicz, R. J., and Beven, K. J.: A data-based mechanistic modelling approach to real-time flood forecasting, in: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, edited by: Beven, K. J. and Hall, J. W., Imperial College Press: London, 407–461, 2014.
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: The Ability of CMIP5 Models to Simulate North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones, J. Climate, 26, 5379–5396, 2013.
Zuccolo, E., Vaccari, F., Peresan, A., and Panza, G. F.: Neo-deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments: a comparison over the Italian territory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 168, 69–83, 2011.
Download
- Article
(6895 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint