Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
Review article
 | 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |  | 24 Oct 2018

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas

Keith J. Beven, Susana Almeida, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Sarka Blazkova, Edoardo Borgomeo, Jim Freer, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, David B. Stephenson, Thorsten Wagener, Matt Watson, and Kate L. Wilkins

Related authors

The importance of retention times in Natural Flood Management interventions
Elizabeth Follett, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, David Mindham, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 197–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, 2024
Short summary
UPH Problem 20 – reducing uncertainty in model prediction: a model invalidation approach based on a Turing-like test
Keith Beven, Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Ann Kretzschmar, Barry Hankin, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Technical note: Hydrology modelling R packages – a unified analysis of models and practicalities from a user perspective
Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

AIR Worldwide: Study of impact and the insurance and economic cost of a major earthquake in British Columbia and Ontario/Québec, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Toronto, Canada, 345 p., 2013.
Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng. Geol., 73, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007, 2004.
Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del, Pozo, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cevennes Region, Adv. Geosci., 29, 13–20, 2011.
Almeida, S., Holcombe, E. A., Pianosi, F., and Wagener, T.: Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017, 2017.
Alonso, E. E., Gens, A., and Delahaye, C. H.: Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study, Hydrogeol. J., 11, 174–192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-002-0245-1, 2003.
Short summary
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint