Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2018
| 24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Susana Almeida
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Willy P. Aspinall
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Paul D. Bates
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Sarka Blazkova
T. G. Masaryk Water Resource Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
Edoardo Borgomeo
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jim Freer
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Katsuichiro Goda
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Jim W. Hall
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jeremy C. Phillips
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Michael Simpson
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Paul J. Smith
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Waternumbers Limited, Halton Mill, Halton, Lancaster, LA2 6DN, UK
David B. Stephenson
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
Thorsten Wagener
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Matt Watson
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Kate L. Wilkins
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
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- The application of dynamic risk analysis methods for safety improvement on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic engineering dams A. Rozhok & V. Tatarinov 10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012005
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- Cascade earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment: A deterministic perspective for engineering purposes C. Reis et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102952
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36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Probabilistic mapping and sensitivity assessment of dam-break flood hazard C. Rizzo et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2174026
- Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches R. Thiéblemont et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
- Quantification of source-to-site distance uncertainty in ground motion models S. Yaghmaei-Sabegh & M. Ebrahimi-Aghabagher 10.1007/s11069-019-03739-5
- Evaluating the satellite-derived DEM accuracy with rain-on-grid modeling for flood hydrograph prediction of Katulampa Watershed, Indonesia B. Ginting et al. 10.1080/15715124.2024.2312857
- Probabilistic mapping of life loss due to dam-break flooding A. Maranzoni et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-06285-3
- Crisis Communication after Earthquakes in Greece and Japan: Effects on Seismic Disaster Management A. Fokaefs & K. Sapountzaki 10.3390/su13169257
- Akım Gözlem İstasyonu Bulunmayan Havzalarda Taşkın Debisi Tahmini: Doğu Karadeniz Örneği E. ELBAŞI & H. ÖZDEMİR 10.17211/tcd.1342411
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- Virtual testbeds for community resilience analysis: step-by-step development procedure and future orientation S. Enderami et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2023.07.002
- The application of dynamic risk analysis methods for safety improvement on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic engineering dams A. Rozhok & V. Tatarinov 10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012005
- Addressing the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis as a basis for seismic design by emphasizing the knowledge aspects and utilizing imprecise probabilities B. Ghods & F. Rofooei 10.1007/s10518-021-01252-4
- Bayesian geomorphology O. Korup 10.1002/esp.4995
- Integrating scientific knowledge into machine learning using interactive decision trees G. Sarailidis et al. 10.1016/j.cageo.2022.105248
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice? K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
- Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics E. Bozzolan et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020
- Physical vulnerability assessment to flash floods using an indicator‐based methodology based on building properties and flow parameters M. Leal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12712
- Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty T. Page et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023
- Formal Matters on the Topic of Risk Mitigation: A Mathematical Perspective G. Bilotta et al. 10.3390/app13010265
- Reducing uncertainties in flood inundation outputs of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model by constraining roughness P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1445-2019
- Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat M. Bohle & E. Marone 10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
- How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? M. Knotters et al. 10.1017/wat.2024.4
- The International Mountain Conference, Innsbruck, Austria, September 2019 (IMC2019): A Synthesis with Recommendations for Research M. Price et al. 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00027.1
- Building hazard maps with differentiated risk perception for flood impact assessment P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2647-2020
- Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 C. Kropf et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022
- Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach A. Maia et al. 10.1007/s11269-024-03794-z
- Belief-Informed Robust Decision Making (BIRDM): Assessing changes in decision robustness due to changing distributions of deep uncertainties A. Ciullo et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105560
- Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting M. Whitehead & M. Bebbington 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107386
- Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards K. Goda & R. De Risi 10.3389/fbuil.2022.1022736
- A robust surrogate data assimilation approach to real-time forecasting using polynomial chaos expansion V. Tran & J. Kim 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126367
- Towards an integrated framework for the risk assessment of coastal structures exposed to earthquake and tsunami hazards C. Reis et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2022.07.001
- Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate R. Kaitna et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162227
- Designing for Ambiguity in Visual Analytics: Lessons from Risk Assessment and Prediction S. Nowak & L. Bartram 10.1109/TVCG.2023.3326571
- Assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in Iran using GIS techniques E. Heydari Alamdarloo et al. 10.1007/s40333-020-0096-4
- Principles and practice: Towards disaster risk reduction in New South Wales, Australia A. Conant & G. Brewer 10.1016/j.ugj.2022.09.002
- Process‐Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2021EF002259
- Cascade earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment: A deterministic perspective for engineering purposes C. Reis et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102952
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow-dominated system K. Mostbauer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
- Application of GIS/RS in Assessment of Flash Flood Causes and Damages: A Case Study of Budhni Nullah, District Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan S. Khan et al. 10.26710/sbsee.v4i2.2262
Latest update: 25 Apr 2024
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This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a...
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