Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Susana Almeida
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Willy P. Aspinall
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Paul D. Bates
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Sarka Blazkova
T. G. Masaryk Water Resource Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
Edoardo Borgomeo
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jim Freer
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Katsuichiro Goda
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Jim W. Hall
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jeremy C. Phillips
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Michael Simpson
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Paul J. Smith
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Waternumbers Limited, Halton Mill, Halton, Lancaster, LA2 6DN, UK
David B. Stephenson
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
Thorsten Wagener
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Matt Watson
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Kate L. Wilkins
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
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Total article views: 4,491 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Total article views: 1,617 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The International Mountain Conference, Innsbruck, Austria, September 2019 (IMC2019): A Synthesis with Recommendations for Research M. Price et al. 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00027.1
- Building hazard maps with differentiated risk perception for flood impact assessment P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2647-2020
- Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches R. Thiéblemont et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
- Quantification of source-to-site distance uncertainty in ground motion models S. Yaghmaei-Sabegh & M. Ebrahimi-Aghabagher 10.1007/s11069-019-03739-5
- Crisis Communication after Earthquakes in Greece and Japan: Effects on Seismic Disaster Management A. Fokaefs & K. Sapountzaki 10.3390/su13169257
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- The application of dynamic risk analysis methods for safety improvement on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic engineering dams A. Rozhok & V. Tatarinov 10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012005
- Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting M. Whitehead & M. Bebbington 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107386
- Addressing the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis as a basis for seismic design by emphasizing the knowledge aspects and utilizing imprecise probabilities B. Ghods & F. Rofooei 10.1007/s10518-021-01252-4
- Bayesian geomorphology O. Korup 10.1002/esp.4995
- A robust surrogate data assimilation approach to real-time forecasting using polynomial chaos expansion V. Tran & J. Kim 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126367
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice? K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
- Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics E. Bozzolan et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020
- Physical vulnerability assessment to flash floods using an indicator‐based methodology based on building properties and flow parameters M. Leal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12712
- Assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in Iran using GIS techniques E. Heydari Alamdarloo et al. 10.1007/s40333-020-0096-4
- Reducing uncertainties in flood inundation outputs of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model by constraining roughness P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1445-2019
- Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat M. Bohle & E. Marone 10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
- Process‐Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2021EF002259
- Climate Adaptation as a Control Problem: Review and Perspectives on Dynamic Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty J. Herman et al. 10.1029/2019WR025502
- The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow-dominated system K. Mostbauer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The International Mountain Conference, Innsbruck, Austria, September 2019 (IMC2019): A Synthesis with Recommendations for Research M. Price et al. 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00027.1
- Building hazard maps with differentiated risk perception for flood impact assessment P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2647-2020
- Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches R. Thiéblemont et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
- Quantification of source-to-site distance uncertainty in ground motion models S. Yaghmaei-Sabegh & M. Ebrahimi-Aghabagher 10.1007/s11069-019-03739-5
- Crisis Communication after Earthquakes in Greece and Japan: Effects on Seismic Disaster Management A. Fokaefs & K. Sapountzaki 10.3390/su13169257
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- The application of dynamic risk analysis methods for safety improvement on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic engineering dams A. Rozhok & V. Tatarinov 10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012005
- Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting M. Whitehead & M. Bebbington 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107386
- Addressing the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis as a basis for seismic design by emphasizing the knowledge aspects and utilizing imprecise probabilities B. Ghods & F. Rofooei 10.1007/s10518-021-01252-4
- Bayesian geomorphology O. Korup 10.1002/esp.4995
- A robust surrogate data assimilation approach to real-time forecasting using polynomial chaos expansion V. Tran & J. Kim 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126367
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice? K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
- Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics E. Bozzolan et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020
- Physical vulnerability assessment to flash floods using an indicator‐based methodology based on building properties and flow parameters M. Leal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12712
- Assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in Iran using GIS techniques E. Heydari Alamdarloo et al. 10.1007/s40333-020-0096-4
- Reducing uncertainties in flood inundation outputs of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model by constraining roughness P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1445-2019
- Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat M. Bohle & E. Marone 10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
- Process‐Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2021EF002259
- Climate Adaptation as a Control Problem: Review and Perspectives on Dynamic Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty J. Herman et al. 10.1029/2019WR025502
Latest update: 09 Jun 2023
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Short summary
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a...
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