Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas

Beven, Keith J.; Almeida, Susana; Aspinall, Willy P.; Bates, Paul D.; Blazkova, Sarka; Borgomeo, Edoardo; Freer, Jim; Goda, Katsuichiro; Hall, Jim W.; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Simpson, Michael; Smith, Paul J.; Stephenson, David B.; Wagener, Thorsten; Watson, Matt; Wilkins, Kate L.

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

Review article

|

24 Oct 2018

Review article |

| 24 Oct 2018

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas

Keith J. Beven, Susana Almeida, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Sarka Blazkova, Edoardo Borgomeo, Jim Freer, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, David B. Stephenson, Thorsten Wagener, Matt Watson, and Kate L. Wilkins

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Jan 2018	42	22	1	65
Feb 2018	30	14	6	50
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Apr 2018	11	6	1	18
May 2018	22	10	0	32
Jun 2018	18	11	0	29
Jul 2018	23	13	0	36
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Dec 2018	94	32	12	138
Jan 2019	51	47	2	100
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Jul 2019	20	19	1	40
Aug 2019	20	18	1	39
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Nov 2019	16	22	0	38
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Feb 2020	31	28	5	64
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Mar 2021	68	88	4	160
Apr 2021	53	41	2	96
May 2021	44	35	2	81
Jun 2021	43	23	0	66
Jul 2021	46	18	0	64
Aug 2021	54	37	1	92
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Jan 2022	65	34	2	101
Feb 2022	49	16	4	69
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Apr 2022	70	28	2	100
May 2022	58	30	1	89
Jun 2022	67	29	3	99
Jul 2022	60	17	0	77
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Oct 2022	65	15	2	82
Nov 2022	84	31	1	116
Dec 2022	86	21	1	108
Jan 2023	74	27	2	103
Feb 2023	62	21	1	84
Mar 2023	74	26	3	103
Apr 2023	30	28	1	59
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Jun 2023	26	13	0	39
Jul 2023	44	19	3	66
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Apr 2024	47	28	6	81
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Jul 2024	47	22	4	73
Aug 2024	50	23	2	75
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Oct 2024	38	24	1	63
Nov 2024	35	13	0	48
Dec 2024	21	9	3	33
Jan 2025	29	26	0	55
Feb 2025	47	17	4	68
Mar 2025	56	33	3	92
Apr 2025	67	41	2	110
May 2025	57	31	0	88
Jun 2025	73	24	1	98
Jul 2025	66	41	2	109
Aug 2025	46	35	1	82
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Oct 2025	47	48	4	99
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Aug 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Aug 2017	205	60	1	266
Sep 2017	129	58	0	187
Oct 2017	51	19	0	70
Nov 2017	21	12	0	33
Dec 2017	28	9	1	38
Jan 2018	42	22	1	65
Feb 2018	30	14	6	50
Mar 2018	18	13	0	31
Apr 2018	11	6	1	18
May 2018	22	10	0	32
Jun 2018	18	11	0	29
Jul 2018	23	13	0	36
Aug 2018	11	10	1	22
Sep 2018	12	16	0	28
Oct 2018	265	151	2	418
Nov 2018	193	92	3	288
Dec 2018	94	32	12	138
Jan 2019	51	47	2	100
Feb 2019	20	23	0	43
Mar 2019	35	41	1	77
Apr 2019	38	25	1	64
May 2019	26	26	2	54
Jun 2019	36	17	2	55
Jul 2019	20	19	1	40
Aug 2019	20	18	1	39
Sep 2019	22	16	1	39
Oct 2019	29	30	1	60
Nov 2019	16	22	0	38
Dec 2019	22	25	1	48
Jan 2020	42	46	3	91
Feb 2020	31	28	5	64
Mar 2020	18	33	2	53
Apr 2020	17	35	1	53
May 2020	32	58	3	93
Jun 2020	46	27	1	74
Jul 2020	43	34	11	88
Aug 2020	39	29	4	72
Sep 2020	54	32	0	86
Oct 2020	39	46	1	86
Nov 2020	47	32	2	81
Dec 2020	58	33	1	92
Jan 2021	76	56	1	133
Feb 2021	62	67	3	132
Mar 2021	68	88	4	160
Apr 2021	53	41	2	96
May 2021	44	35	2	81
Jun 2021	43	23	0	66
Jul 2021	46	18	0	64
Aug 2021	54	37	1	92
Sep 2021	54	35	1	90
Oct 2021	53	61	0	114
Nov 2021	70	57	0	127
Dec 2021	61	20	2	83
Jan 2022	65	34	2	101
Feb 2022	49	16	4	69
Mar 2022	55	30	2	87
Apr 2022	70	28	2	100
May 2022	58	30	1	89
Jun 2022	67	29	3	99
Jul 2022	60	17	0	77
Aug 2022	86	47	2	135
Sep 2022	47	19	0	66
Oct 2022	65	15	2	82
Nov 2022	84	31	1	116
Dec 2022	86	21	1	108
Jan 2023	74	27	2	103
Feb 2023	62	21	1	84
Mar 2023	74	26	3	103
Apr 2023	30	28	1	59
May 2023	22	20	4	46
Jun 2023	26	13	0	39
Jul 2023	44	19	3	66
Aug 2023	36	21	3	60
Sep 2023	35	18	0	53
Oct 2023	74	34	2	110
Nov 2023	59	10	0	69
Dec 2023	44	19	5	68
Jan 2024	38	37	1	76
Feb 2024	20	31	2	53
Mar 2024	35	54	4	93
Apr 2024	47	28	6	81
May 2024	42	21	1	64
Jun 2024	80	17	4	101
Jul 2024	47	22	4	73
Aug 2024	50	23	2	75
Sep 2024	38	24	2	64
Oct 2024	38	24	1	63
Nov 2024	35	13	0	48
Dec 2024	21	9	3	33
Jan 2025	29	26	0	55
Feb 2025	47	17	4	68
Mar 2025	56	33	3	92
Apr 2025	67	41	2	110
May 2025	57	31	0	88
Jun 2025	73	24	1	98
Jul 2025	66	41	2	109
Aug 2025	46	35	1	82
Sep 2025	81	26	1	108
Oct 2025	47	48	4	99
Nov 2025	18	8	0	26

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Short summary

This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.


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