Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2018
| 24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Susana Almeida
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Willy P. Aspinall
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Paul D. Bates
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Sarka Blazkova
T. G. Masaryk Water Resource Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
Edoardo Borgomeo
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jim Freer
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Katsuichiro Goda
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Jim W. Hall
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Jeremy C. Phillips
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Michael Simpson
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Paul J. Smith
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Waternumbers Limited, Halton Mill, Halton, Lancaster, LA2 6DN, UK
David B. Stephenson
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
Thorsten Wagener
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Matt Watson
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Kate L. Wilkins
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Viewed
Total article views: 8,008 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 21 Aug 2017)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,915 | 2,917 | 176 | 8,008 | 132 | 151 |
- HTML: 4,915
- PDF: 2,917
- XML: 176
- Total: 8,008
- BibTeX: 132
- EndNote: 151
Total article views: 6,200 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 24 Oct 2018)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,136 | 1,900 | 164 | 6,200 | 125 | 134 |
- HTML: 4,136
- PDF: 1,900
- XML: 164
- Total: 6,200
- BibTeX: 125
- EndNote: 134
Total article views: 1,808 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 21 Aug 2017)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 779 | 1,017 | 12 | 1,808 | 7 | 17 |
- HTML: 779
- PDF: 1,017
- XML: 12
- Total: 1,808
- BibTeX: 7
- EndNote: 17
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 8,008 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 7,405 with geography defined
and 603 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 6,200 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 5,694 with geography defined
and 506 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,808 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 1,711 with geography defined
and 97 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
50 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Decision-making under epistemic, strategic and institutional uncertainty during COVID-19: findings from a six-country empirical study S. Asthana et al. 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018124
- Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches R. Thiéblemont et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
- Probabilistic mapping of life loss due to dam-break flooding A. Maranzoni et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-06285-3
- Crisis Communication after Earthquakes in Greece and Japan: Effects on Seismic Disaster Management A. Fokaefs & K. Sapountzaki 10.3390/su13169257
- Akım Gözlem İstasyonu Bulunmayan Havzalarda Taşkın Debisi Tahmini: Doğu Karadeniz Örneği E. ELBAŞI & H. ÖZDEMİR 10.17211/tcd.1342411
- A novel framework for debris flow susceptibility assessment considering the uncertainty of sample selection C. Yang et al. 10.1080/19475705.2024.2425732
- Decision analysis for prioritizing climate change adaptation options: a systematic review E. Amanuma et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad61fe
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice? K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
- Physical vulnerability assessment to flash floods using an indicator‐based methodology based on building properties and flow parameters M. Leal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12712
- Reducing uncertainties in flood inundation outputs of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model by constraining roughness P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1445-2019
- A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing K. Beven 10.1002/wat2.1761
- The International Mountain Conference, Innsbruck, Austria, September 2019 (IMC2019): A Synthesis with Recommendations for Research M. Price et al. 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00027.1
- Building hazard maps with differentiated risk perception for flood impact assessment P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2647-2020
- Progress and landscape of disaster science: Insights from computational analyses M. Yazdani et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104536
- Comparative Study of Dusty Tetra Hybrid Casson Nanofluid Flowing in a Generalized Two-Phase MHD Medium Between Parallel Microplates with a Porous Medium D. khan & G. Ali 10.1140/epjs/s11734-024-01184-5
- Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach A. Maia et al. 10.1007/s11269-024-03794-z
- Belief-Informed Robust Decision Making (BIRDM): Assessing changes in decision robustness due to changing distributions of deep uncertainties A. Ciullo et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105560
- Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting M. Whitehead & M. Bebbington 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107386
- A novel multiple-expert protocol to manage uncertainty and subjective choices in probabilistic single and multi-hazard risk analyses J. Selva et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104641
- A robust surrogate data assimilation approach to real-time forecasting using polynomial chaos expansion V. Tran & J. Kim 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126367
- Towards an integrated framework for the risk assessment of coastal structures exposed to earthquake and tsunami hazards C. Reis et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2022.07.001
- Principles and practice: Towards disaster risk reduction in New South Wales, Australia A. Conant & G. Brewer 10.1016/j.ugj.2022.09.002
- Process‐Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2021EF002259
- Synthetic libraries of urban landslide simulations to identify slope failure hotspots and drivers across spatial scales and landscapes E. Bozzolan et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02327-4
- Probabilistic mapping and sensitivity assessment of dam-break flood hazard C. Rizzo et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2174026
- Quantification of source-to-site distance uncertainty in ground motion models S. Yaghmaei-Sabegh & M. Ebrahimi-Aghabagher 10.1007/s11069-019-03739-5
- Evaluating the satellite-derived DEM accuracy with rain-on-grid modeling for flood hydrograph prediction of Katulampa Watershed, Indonesia B. Ginting et al. 10.1080/15715124.2024.2312857
- Navigating scientific modelling and uncertainty: Insights from hazard, risk, and impact scientists in disaster risk management (DRM) A. Dhungana et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105260
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- Virtual testbeds for community resilience analysis: step-by-step development procedure and future orientation S. Enderami et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2023.07.002
- Comparison of 1D, coupled 1D–2D, and 2D shallow water numerical modeling for dam-break flow analysis of Way-Ela dam, Indonesia M. Lim et al. 10.15292/acta.hydro.2024.02
- The application of dynamic risk analysis methods for safety improvement on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic engineering dams A. Rozhok & V. Tatarinov 10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012005
- Addressing the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis as a basis for seismic design by emphasizing the knowledge aspects and utilizing imprecise probabilities B. Ghods & F. Rofooei 10.1007/s10518-021-01252-4
- Bayesian geomorphology O. Korup 10.1002/esp.4995
- Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates S. Meiler et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adn4607
- Integrating scientific knowledge into machine learning using interactive decision trees G. Sarailidis et al. 10.1016/j.cageo.2022.105248
- Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics E. Bozzolan et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020
- Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty T. Page et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023
- Formal Matters on the Topic of Risk Mitigation: A Mathematical Perspective G. Bilotta et al. 10.3390/app13010265
- Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat M. Bohle & E. Marone 10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
- How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? M. Knotters et al. 10.1017/wat.2024.4
- Quantifying cascading uncertainty in compound flood modeling with linked process-based and machine learning models D. Muñoz et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024
- Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 C. Kropf et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022
- Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards K. Goda & R. De Risi 10.3389/fbuil.2022.1022736
- Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate R. Kaitna et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162227
- Designing for Ambiguity in Visual Analytics: Lessons from Risk Assessment and Prediction S. Nowak & L. Bartram 10.1109/TVCG.2023.3326571
- Assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in Iran using GIS techniques E. Heydari Alamdarloo et al. 10.1007/s40333-020-0096-4
- Cascade earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment: A deterministic perspective for engineering purposes C. Reis et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102952
- The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow-dominated system K. Mostbauer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
- Application of GIS/RS in Assessment of Flash Flood Causes and Damages: A Case Study of Budhni Nullah, District Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan S. Khan et al. 10.26710/sbsee.v4i2.2262
48 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Decision-making under epistemic, strategic and institutional uncertainty during COVID-19: findings from a six-country empirical study S. Asthana et al. 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018124
- Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches R. Thiéblemont et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
- Probabilistic mapping of life loss due to dam-break flooding A. Maranzoni et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-06285-3
- Crisis Communication after Earthquakes in Greece and Japan: Effects on Seismic Disaster Management A. Fokaefs & K. Sapountzaki 10.3390/su13169257
- Akım Gözlem İstasyonu Bulunmayan Havzalarda Taşkın Debisi Tahmini: Doğu Karadeniz Örneği E. ELBAŞI & H. ÖZDEMİR 10.17211/tcd.1342411
- A novel framework for debris flow susceptibility assessment considering the uncertainty of sample selection C. Yang et al. 10.1080/19475705.2024.2425732
- Decision analysis for prioritizing climate change adaptation options: a systematic review E. Amanuma et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad61fe
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice? K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
- Physical vulnerability assessment to flash floods using an indicator‐based methodology based on building properties and flow parameters M. Leal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12712
- Reducing uncertainties in flood inundation outputs of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model by constraining roughness P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1445-2019
- A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing K. Beven 10.1002/wat2.1761
- The International Mountain Conference, Innsbruck, Austria, September 2019 (IMC2019): A Synthesis with Recommendations for Research M. Price et al. 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00027.1
- Building hazard maps with differentiated risk perception for flood impact assessment P. Bhola et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2647-2020
- Progress and landscape of disaster science: Insights from computational analyses M. Yazdani et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104536
- Comparative Study of Dusty Tetra Hybrid Casson Nanofluid Flowing in a Generalized Two-Phase MHD Medium Between Parallel Microplates with a Porous Medium D. khan & G. Ali 10.1140/epjs/s11734-024-01184-5
- Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach A. Maia et al. 10.1007/s11269-024-03794-z
- Belief-Informed Robust Decision Making (BIRDM): Assessing changes in decision robustness due to changing distributions of deep uncertainties A. Ciullo et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105560
- Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting M. Whitehead & M. Bebbington 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107386
- A novel multiple-expert protocol to manage uncertainty and subjective choices in probabilistic single and multi-hazard risk analyses J. Selva et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104641
- A robust surrogate data assimilation approach to real-time forecasting using polynomial chaos expansion V. Tran & J. Kim 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126367
- Towards an integrated framework for the risk assessment of coastal structures exposed to earthquake and tsunami hazards C. Reis et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2022.07.001
- Principles and practice: Towards disaster risk reduction in New South Wales, Australia A. Conant & G. Brewer 10.1016/j.ugj.2022.09.002
- Process‐Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2021EF002259
- Synthetic libraries of urban landslide simulations to identify slope failure hotspots and drivers across spatial scales and landscapes E. Bozzolan et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02327-4
- Probabilistic mapping and sensitivity assessment of dam-break flood hazard C. Rizzo et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2174026
- Quantification of source-to-site distance uncertainty in ground motion models S. Yaghmaei-Sabegh & M. Ebrahimi-Aghabagher 10.1007/s11069-019-03739-5
- Evaluating the satellite-derived DEM accuracy with rain-on-grid modeling for flood hydrograph prediction of Katulampa Watershed, Indonesia B. Ginting et al. 10.1080/15715124.2024.2312857
- Navigating scientific modelling and uncertainty: Insights from hazard, risk, and impact scientists in disaster risk management (DRM) A. Dhungana et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105260
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- Virtual testbeds for community resilience analysis: step-by-step development procedure and future orientation S. Enderami et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2023.07.002
- Comparison of 1D, coupled 1D–2D, and 2D shallow water numerical modeling for dam-break flow analysis of Way-Ela dam, Indonesia M. Lim et al. 10.15292/acta.hydro.2024.02
- The application of dynamic risk analysis methods for safety improvement on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic engineering dams A. Rozhok & V. Tatarinov 10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012005
- Addressing the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis as a basis for seismic design by emphasizing the knowledge aspects and utilizing imprecise probabilities B. Ghods & F. Rofooei 10.1007/s10518-021-01252-4
- Bayesian geomorphology O. Korup 10.1002/esp.4995
- Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates S. Meiler et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adn4607
- Integrating scientific knowledge into machine learning using interactive decision trees G. Sarailidis et al. 10.1016/j.cageo.2022.105248
- Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics E. Bozzolan et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020
- Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty T. Page et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023
- Formal Matters on the Topic of Risk Mitigation: A Mathematical Perspective G. Bilotta et al. 10.3390/app13010265
- Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat M. Bohle & E. Marone 10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
- How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? M. Knotters et al. 10.1017/wat.2024.4
- Quantifying cascading uncertainty in compound flood modeling with linked process-based and machine learning models D. Muñoz et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024
- Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 C. Kropf et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022
- Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards K. Goda & R. De Risi 10.3389/fbuil.2022.1022736
- Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate R. Kaitna et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162227
- Designing for Ambiguity in Visual Analytics: Lessons from Risk Assessment and Prediction S. Nowak & L. Bartram 10.1109/TVCG.2023.3326571
- Assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in Iran using GIS techniques E. Heydari Alamdarloo et al. 10.1007/s40333-020-0096-4
- Cascade earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment: A deterministic perspective for engineering purposes C. Reis et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102952
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow-dominated system K. Mostbauer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
- Application of GIS/RS in Assessment of Flash Flood Causes and Damages: A Case Study of Budhni Nullah, District Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan S. Khan et al. 10.26710/sbsee.v4i2.2262
Latest update: 31 Jul 2025
Download
- Article
(6895 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. As every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Part 2.
This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint