Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1969-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1969-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jul 2018
Research article |
| 16 Jul 2018
| 16 Jul 2018
A study of earthquake recurrence based on a one-body spring-slider model in the presence of thermal-pressurized slip-weakening friction and viscosity
Jeen-Hwa Wang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, P.O. Box 1-55, Nangang, Taipei, Taiwan
Related authors
Jeen-Hwa Wang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2018-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2018-49, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Jeen-Hwa Wang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-467-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-467-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, I study the frictional and viscous effects on multistable slip of earthquakes based on a one-degree-of-freedom model through numerical simulations. Results show three regimes of stable, intermittent, and unstable slip, depending on the values of model parameters.
Jeen-Hwa Wang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2018-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2018-49, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Jeen-Hwa Wang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-467-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-467-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, I study the frictional and viscous effects on multistable slip of earthquakes based on a one-degree-of-freedom model through numerical simulations. Results show three regimes of stable, intermittent, and unstable slip, depending on the values of model parameters.
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Forearc crustal faulting and estimated worst-case tsunami scenario in the upper plate of subduction zones. Case study of the Morne Piton Fault system (Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe Archipelago)
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimates of Local Crustal Seismic Response
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and Results
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sweden
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Strategies for Comparison of Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models and Insights from the Germany and France Border Region
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
A 2700-yr record of Cascadia megathrust and crustal/slab earthquakes from Upper and Lower Squaw Lakes, Oregon
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland ERM-CH23
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of the built environment in the city of Srinagar, Kashmir Himalaya, using a geographic information system
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
PERL: a dataset of geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological parameters for earthquake-induced hazards assessment in Terre del Reno (Emilia-Romagna, Italy)
Development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings using machine learning – Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand
A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Inferring the depth and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes from intensity attenuation curves
Tsunami scenario triggered by a submarine landslide offshore of northern Sumatra Island and its hazard assessment
Scrutinizing and rooting the multiple anomalies of Nepal earthquake sequence in 2015 with the deviation–time–space criterion and homologous lithosphere–coversphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling physics
On the calculation of smoothing kernels for seismic parameter spatial mapping: methodology and examples
Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara
Brief communication: The crucial assessment of possible significant vertical movements preceding the 28 December 1908, Mw = 7.1, Messina Straits earthquake
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-8, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study identified a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modelling we found that this was a magnitude 5.6 to 6.8 earthquake on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel geophysical datasets we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton Fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm.yr-1, dividing by five previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative for the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if the whole Fault segments would ruptured together.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169504548.82107207/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169504548.82107207/v1, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly growing cities in earthquake-prone Global South regions lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study shows that even with these limitations, it is possible to generate reasonable predictions of the spatial variability in expected ground motions using high-resolution local geological information and simulation-based methods. We emphasize that substantial investments in the measurement of subsurface properties can prove valuable.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso Guillermo Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative reference in the next update of the European Seismic Design Codes (CEN EC8) and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe (Crowley et al., 2021).
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates makes seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Since 2000, expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use this new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods. We find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north, which we find to have the highest hazard in Sweden with mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.05 g for a 475 year return period.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake process. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stephane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1,248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Ann Elizabeth Morey and Chris Goldfinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California/Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records and an age-depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents, to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Cited articles
Abaimov, S. G., Turcotte, D. L., Shcherbakov, R., and Rundle, J. B.: Recurrence
and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena, Nonlin.
Processes Geophys., 14, 455–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-14-455-2007, 2007.
Abe, Y. and Kato, N.: Complex earthquake cycle simulations using a
two-degree-of-freedom spring-block model with a rate- and state-friction law,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 170, 745–765, 2013.
Ando, M.: Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historic earthquakes
along the Nankai trough, Japan, Tectonpohys, 27, 119–140, 1975.
Bakun, W. H. and McEvilly, T. V.: Earthquakes near Parkfield, California:
comparing the 1934 and 1966 sequences, Science, 205, 1375–1377, 1979.
Bakun, W. H. and McEvilly, T. V.: Recurrence models and Parkfield, California,
earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 3051–3058, 1984.
Beeler, N. M., Lockner, D. L., and Hickman, S. H.: A simple stick-slip model for
repeating earthquakes and its implication for microearthquakes at Parkfield,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 91, 1797–1804, 2001.
Belardinelli, M. E. and Belardinelli, E.: The quasi-static approximation of the
spring-slider motion, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 3, 143–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-3-143-1996, 1996.
Bizzarri, A.: What does control earthquake ruptures and dynamic faulting? A
review of different competing mechanism, Pure Appl. Geophys., 166, 741–776, 2009.
Bizzarri, A.: On the recurrence of earthquakes: Role of wear in brittle faulting,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20315, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045480, 2010.
Bizzarri, A.: Modeling repeated slip failures on faults governed by slip-weakening
friction, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 812–821, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110141, 2012a.
Bizzarri, A.: What can physical source models tell us about the recurrence time
of earthquakes?, Earth-Sci. Rev., 115, 304–318, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.10.004, 2012b.
Bizzarri, A.: Effects of permeability and porosity evolution on simulated
earthquakes, J. Struct. Geol., 38, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2011.07.009, 2012c.
Bizzarri, A. and Crupi, P.: Linking the recurrence time of earthquakes to source
parameters: A dream or a real possibility?, Pure Appl. Geophys., 171, 2537–2553,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-013-0743-1, 2014.
Brun, J. L. and Gomez, A. B.: A four-parameter, two degree-of-freedom block-spring
model: Effect of the driver velocity, Pure Appl. Geophys., 143, 633–653, 1994.
Burridge, R. and Knopoff, L.: Model and theoretical seismicity, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am., 57, 341–371, 1967.
Byerlee, J. D.: Brittle-ductile transition in rocks, J. Geophys. Res., 73, 4711–4750, 1968.
Carlson, J. M. and Langer, J. S: Mechanical model of an earthquake fault, Phys.
Rev. A, 40, 6470–6484, 1989.
Chen, K. H., Nadeau, R. M., and Rau, R. J.: Towards a universal rule on the
recurrence interval scaling of repeating earthquakes?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,
L16308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030554, 2007.
Cohen, S.: Numerical and laboratory simulation of fault motion and earthquake
occurrence, Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 17, 61–72, 1979.
Costa, A.: Permeability-porosity relationship: a reexamination of the Kozeny–Carman
equation based on a fractal pore-space geometry assumption, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
33, L02318, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025134, 2006.
Davis, P. M., Jackson, D. D., and Kagan, Y. Y.: The longer it has been since
the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am., 79, 1439–1456, 1989.
Dragoni, M. and Piombo, A.: Dynamics of a seismogenic fault subject to variable
strain rate, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 431–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-431-2011, 2011.
Dragoni, M. and Santini, S.: A two-asperity fault model with wave radiation,
Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 248, 83–93, 2015.
Enescu, B., Struzik, Z., and Kiyono, K.: On the recurrence time of earthquakes:
insight from Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth events, Geophys. J. Int.,
172, 395–404, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03664.x, 2008.
Erickson, B., Birnir, B., and Lavallée, D.: A model for aperiodicity in
earthquakes, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-1-2008, 2008.
Erickson, B., Birnir, B., and Lavallée, D.: Periodicity, chaos and
localization in a Burridge–Knopoff model of an earthquake with rate-and-state
friction, Geophys. J. Int., 187, 178–198, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05123.x, 2011.
Franović, I., Kostić, S., Perc, M., Klinshov, V., Nekorkin, V., and
Kurths, J.: Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics,
Chaos, 26, 063105, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4953471, 2016.
Hasumi, T.: Interoccurrence time statistics in the two-dimensional Burridge-
Knopoff earthquake model, Phys. Rev. E, 76, 026117, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.76.026117, 2007.
He, C., Wong, T. F., and Beeler, N. M.: Scaling of stress drop with recurrence
interval and loading velocity for laboratory-derived fault strength relations,
J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2037, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB001890, 2003.
Hirose, T. and Bystricky, M.: Extreme dynamic weakening of faults during
dehydration by coseismic shear heating, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14311,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030049, 2007.
Huang, J. and Turcotte, D. L.: Are earthquakes an example of deterministic chaos?,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 223–226, 1990.
Huang, J. and Turcotte, D. L.: Evidence of chaotic fault interactions in the
seismicity of the San Andreas fault and Nankai trough, Nature, 348, 234–236, 1992.
Hudson, J. A.: The excitation and propagation of elastic waves, in: Cambridge
Monographs on Mechanics and Applied Mathematics, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 226 pp., 1980.
Hull, J.: Thickness–displacement relationships for deformation zones, J. Struct.
Geol., 10, 431–435, https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-8141(88)90020-X, 1988.
Jeffreys, H.: On the mechanics of faulting, Geol. Mag., 79, 291–295, 1942.
Kanamori, H. and Allen, C. R.: Earthquake repeating time and average drop, in:
Earthquake Source Mechanics Maurice Ewing Series 6, Geophys. Mono. Ser., AGU,
Washington, D.C., USA, 37, 227–235, 1986.
Kittel, C., Knight, W. D., and Ruderman, M. A.: Mechanics, in: Berkeley Physics
Course, vol. 1, McGraw-Hill Book Co, New York, 1968.
Knopoff, L. and Ni, X. X.: Numerical instability at the edge of a dynamic
fracture, Geophys. J. Int., 147, F1–F6, 2001.
Knopoff, L., Mouton, J. Q., and Burridge, R.: The dynamics of a one-dimensional
fault in the presence of friction, Geophys. J. R. Astro. Soc., 35, 169–184, 1973.
Kostić, S., Franović, I., Todorović, K., and Vasoví, N.: Friction
memory effect in complex dynamics of earthquake model, Nonlin. Dynam. 73,
1933–1943, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-013-0914-8, 2013a.
Kostić, S., Vasoví, N., Franović, I., and Todorović, K.: Dynamics
of simple earthquake model with time delay and variation of friction strength,
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 857–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-857-2013, 2013b.
Lachenbruch, A. H.: Frictional heating, fluid pressure, and the resistance to
fault motion, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 6097–6122, 1980.
Lapusta, N. and Rice, J. R.: Nucleation and early seismic propagation of small
and large events in a crustal earthquake model, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 1–18, 2003.
Marone, C.: Laboratory-derived friction laws and their application to seismic
faulting, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 26, 643–669, 1998.
Marrett, R. and Allmendinger, R. W.: Kinematic analysis of fault-slip data, J.
Struct. Geol., 12, 973–986, https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-8141(90)90093-E, 1990.
Mitsui, Y. and Cocco, M.: The role of porosity evolution and fluid flow in
frictional instabilities: a parametric study using a spring-slider dynamic
system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L23305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045672, 2010.
Mitsui, Y. and Hirahara, K.: Coseismic thermal pressurization can notably
prolong earthquake recurrence intervals on weak rate and state friction faults:
numerical experiments using different constitutive equations, J. Geophys. Res.,
114, B09304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JB006220, 2009.
Murray, J. and Segall, P.: Testing time-predictable earthquake recurrence by
direct measurement of strain accumulation and release, Nature, 49, 287–291, 2002.
Nadeau, R. M. and Johnson, L. R.: Seismological studies at Parkfield VI moment
release rates and estimates of source parameters for small repeating earthquake,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 88, 790–814, 1998.
Niemeijer, A., Marone, C., and Ellsworth, D.: Frictional strength and strain
weakening in simulated fault gouge: competition between geometrical weakening
and chemical strengthening, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B10207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JB000838, 2010.
Nur, A.: Nonuniform friction as a physical basis for earthquake mechanics, Pure
Appl. Geophys., 116, 964–989, 1978.
Okada, T., Matsuzawa, T., and Hasegawa, A.: Comparison of source areas of
M4.8 ± 0.1 repeating earthquakes off Kamaishi, NE Japan: are asperities
persistent features?, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 213, 361–374, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(03)000299-1, 2003.
Power, W. L., Tullis, T. E., and Weeks, D. J.: Roughness and wear during brittle
faulting, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 15268–15278, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB093iB12p15268, 1988.
Press, W. H., Flannery, B. P., Teukolsky, S. A., and Vetterling, W. T.: Numerical
Recipes, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986.
Rathbun, A. P. and Marone, C.: Effect of strain localization on frictional
behavior of sheared granular materials, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B01204.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JB006466, 2010.
Reid, H. F.: The California earthquake of April 18, 1906, in: Report of the
State Investigation Commission 2, Mechanics of the Earthquake Carnegie Inst.,
Washington, D.C., 1910.
Reif, F.: Fundamentals of statistical and thermal physics, McGraw-Hill, New York, 651 pp., 1965.
Rice, J. R.: Spatio-temporal complexity of slip on a fault, J. Geophys. Res.,
98, 9885–9907, 1993.
Rice, J. R.: Heating and weakening of faults during earthquake slip, J. Geophys.
Res., 111, B05311, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004006, 2006.
Rice, J. R. and Tse, S. T.: Dynamic motion of a single degree of freedom system
following a rate and state dependent friction law, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 521–530, 1986.
Rice, J. R., Lapusta, N., and Ranjith, K.: Rate and state dependent friction
and the stability of sliding between elastically deformable solids, J. Mech.
Phys. Solids, 49, 1865–1898, 2001.
Robertson, E. C.: Relationship of fault displacement to gouge and breccia
thickness, Mining Eng., 35, 1426–1432, 1983.
Rubinstein, J. L., Ellsworth, W. L., Beeler, N. M., Kilgore, B. D., Lockner,
D. A., and Savage, H. M.: Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict
earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models: 2. Laboratory
earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 117, B02307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008723, 2012.
Ryabov, V. B. and Ito, K.: Intermittent phase transitions in a slider-spring
model as a mechanism for earthquakes, Pure Appl. Geophys., 158, 919–930, 2001.
Scholz, C. H.: The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge Universtiy
Press, Cambridge, 439 pp., 1990.
Schwartz, D. P. and Coppersmith, K. S.: Fault behavior and characteristic
earthquakes: examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones, J. Geophys.
Res., 89, 5681–5698, 1984.
Segall, P. and Rice, J. R.: Dilatancy, compaction, and slip instability of a
fluid-infiltrated fault, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 22155–22171, 1995.
Shimazaki, K. and Nakata, T.: Time-predictable model for large earthquakes,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 7, 279–282, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL007i004p00279, 1980.
Sibson, R. H.: Interaction between temperature and pore-fluid pressure during
earthquake faulting and a mechanism for partial or total stress release, Nat.
Phys. Sci., 243, 66–68, 1973.
Sibson, R. H.: Implications of fault-valve behavior for rupture nucleation and
recurrence, Tectonophys., 211, 283–293, 1992.
Sieh, K.: A review of geological evidence for recurrence times of large
earthquakes, in: Earthquake Prediction – An International Review, Mauric Ewing
Series 4, AGU, Washington, D.C., USA, 181–207, 1981.
Sieh, K., Natawidjaja, D., Meltzner, A. J., Shen, C. C., and Cheng, H.: Earthquake
supercycles inferred from sea-level changes recorded in the corals of West
Sumatra, Science, 322, 1674–1678, 2008.
Spray, J. G.: Viscosity determinations of some frictionally generated silicate
melts: Implications for fault zone rheology at high strain rates, J. Geophys.
Res., 98, 8053–8068, 1983.
Spray, J. G.: Evidence for melt lubrication during large earthquakes, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 32, L07301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022293, 2005.
Sykes, L. R. and Menke, W.: Repeat times of large earthquakes: implications
for earthquake mechanics and long-term prediction, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
96, 1569–1596, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050083, 2006.
Sykes, L. R. and Quittmeyer, R. C.: Repeat times of great earthquakes along
simple plate boundaries, in: Earthquake Prediction – An International Review,
Maurice Ewing Series 4, AGU, Washington, D.C., USA, 217–247, 1981.
Thompson, J. M. T. and Stewart, H. B.: Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, John Wiley
and Sons, New York, 376 pp., 1986.
Turcotte, D. L.: Fractal and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, Cambridge
Universtiy Press, New York, 221 pp., 1992.
Turcotte, D. L. and Schubert, G.: GEODYNAMICS – Applications of Continuum
Physics to Geological Problems, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 450 pp., 1982.
Wang, J. H.: Effect of seismic coupling on the scaling of seismicity, Geophys.
J. Int., 121, 475–488, 1995.
Wang, J. H.: Velocity-weakening friction law as a factor in controlling the
frequency-magnitude relation of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86, 701–713, 1996.
Wang, J. H.: Instability of a two-dimensional dynamical spring-slider model of
an earthquake fault, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 389–394, 2000.
Wang, J. H.: A one-body model of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake, Terr.
Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 14, 335–342, 2003.
Wang, J. H.: Earthquakes rupturing the Chelungpu fault in Taiwan are
time-predictable, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L06316, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021884, 2005.
Wang, J. H.: A dynamic study of the frictional and viscous effects on earthquake
rupture: a case study of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am., 97, 1233–1244, 2007.
Wang, J. H.: One-dimensional dynamical modeling of earthquakes: A review, Terr.
Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 19, 183–203, 2008.
Wang, J. H.: Effect of thermal pressurization on the radiation efficiency, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 2293–2304, 2009.
Wang, J. H.: Thermal and pore fluid pressure history on the Chelungpu fault at
a depth of 1111 meters during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake, J. Geophys.
Res., 116, B03302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007765, 2011.
Wang, J. H.: Some intrinsic properties of the two-dimensional dynamical
spring-slider model of earthquake faults, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 822–835, 2012.
Wang, J. H.: Slip of a one-body spring-slider model in the presence of
slip-weakening friction and viscosity, Ann. Geophys., 59, S0541, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7063, 2016.
Wang, J. H.: Slip of a two-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model in the presence
of slip-weakening friction and viscosity, Ann. Geophys., 60, S0659, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7295, 2017a.
Wang, J. H.: Frictional and viscous effects on the nucleation phase of an
earthquake nucleation, J. Seismol., 21, 1517–1539, 2017b.
Wang, J. H.: Multi-stable slip in a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model
with thermal-pressurized friction and viscosity, Nonlin. Processes Geophys.,
24, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-467-2017, 2017c.
Wang, J. H. and Hwang, R. D.: One-dimensional dynamical simulations of slip
complexity of earthquake faults, Earth Planets Space, 53, 91–100, 2001.
Wang, J. H. and Kuo, C. H.: On the frequency distribution of inter-occurrence
times of earthquakes, J. Seismol., 2, 351–358, 1998.
Ward, S. N.: A synthetic seismicity model for southern California: Cycles,
probabilities, and hazard, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22393–22418, 1996.
Ward, S. N.: San Francisco Bay Area earthquake simulations: A step toward a
standard physical earthquake model, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 370–386, 2000.
Xu, H. J. and Knopoff, L.: Periodicity and chaos in a one-dimensional dynamical
model of earthquakes, Phys. Rev. E., 50, 3577–3581, 1994.
Short summary
Numerical simulations are made for exploring rictional and viscous effects on earthquake recurrence based on a one-body spring-slider model with thermal-pressurized slip-weakening friction and viscosity. Included also is the effect due to wear process of faults, which can change long-term behavior of earthquakes.
Numerical simulations are made for exploring rictional and viscous effects on earthquake...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint