To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. Process-based models are used to predict hazards at receptors. Impacts are calculated through vulnerability relations. Simulations are integrated with a Bayesian-based approach to link source with consequences. The tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies and as support for coastal decision making.

Urbanization, resulting from a sharply increasing demographic pressure and the development of infrastructure, has made the population of many tropical areas more vulnerable to extreme rainfall hazards. Characterizing extreme rainfall distribution is thus becoming an overarching need in hydrological applications. Using 14 tipping-bucket rain-gauge series, this study provides IDF curves and uncertainties over Senegal. Climate change requires warning end-users that they should be used with care.

Flood prediction methods are often based solely on climatic parameters and sometimes on the failure of existing dams. This paper shows the importance of multi-hazard studies, including potential natural dam formation to avoid risk underestimation. We present an end-to-end analysis, ranging from the origin of the landslide up to the computation of flood waves induced by the dam breaching. The paper is based on a case study of Bujumbura in the East African Rift Valley, a multi-hazard environment.

Snow gliding is a key factor for snow glide avalanche formation and soil erosion. This study considers atmospheric and snow variables, vegetation characteristics, and soil properties, and determines their relevance for snow gliding. The soil moisture, the soil temperature, the liquid water content of snow, the phytomass of mosses, and the friction coefficient have major influence. However, further investigations may be focused on the freezing and melting processes in the uppermost soil layers.

Five synthetic aperture radar images are employed to monitor the changes in the inundation areas caused by torrential rain from 9 to 11 September 2015, in the city of Joso, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. The inundation areas were then extracted by setting threshold values for backscattering intensity. The results were modified by considering the land cover and a digital elevation model. Compared with the results from visual inspections, 85 % of the inundation area could be extracted successfully.

In this paper, we present the application of the physically based HIRESSS model (High Resolution Stability Simulator) to forecast the occurrence of shallow landslides in a portion of the Aosta Valley region (Italy). An in-depth study of the geotechnical and hydrological properties of the hillslopes controlling shallow landslides formation was conducted, in order to generate an input map of parameters. The main aim of this study is to set up a regional landslide early warning system.

Compound events – that is, two or more events occurring simultaneously – can lead to high impacts, even if the two single events are not extreme per se, i.e. only their combination. The possibility of utilizing statistical dependence methods in coastal flood hazard calculations is investigated. The statistical analysis between storm surge and wave height is performed over 32 river ending points along European coasts. The top 80 compound events are defined, and their low-level flow is analysed.

The technology presented in this paper is based on a completely new approach wherein the development of a new field mass loss device combined with recent progress in the understanding of its behaviour achieves never before recorded data. It is the first time that the kinetics of decomposition of biomass have been validated under real wildland fire conditions, thus ensuring reliable characterisation of source terms.

Numerical simulations are made for exploring rictional and viscous effects on earthquake recurrence based on a one-body spring-slider model with thermal-pressurized slip-weakening friction and viscosity. Included also is the effect due to wear process of faults, which can change long-term behavior of earthquakes.

Large boulders have been found on platforms that comprise the rocky coastline of Minorca (Balearic Islands), several tens of meters from the edge of the cliff, up to 15 m above the sea level, and kilometers away from any inland escarpment. The age of the boulders, the direction of imbrication and the estimation of run-up necessary for their placement indicate dislodging and transport by northern Africa tsunami waves that hit the coastline of Minorca.

The invasion of exceptionally cold water in the southern Taiwan Strait often causes huge damages to marine ecology and fishing activities. A strong cold event in the winter of 2008 led to the death of ~ 73 t of wild fish and damaged 80 % of cage-based aquaculture. We found that the La Niña cold winds play a central role to trigger the invasion of cold water. Therefore, a warning system was successfully developed on the basis of the Oceanic Niño Index and integrated wind speed.

A simulation of the building collapses and street blockages that are most likely to occur in the event of the next major earthquake in the historic centre of Bucharest was conducted in order to evaluate their impact on the provision of disaster response and emergency services. It identified those areas where the accessibility impacts would be most severe. These results are of value to local policy makers and planners seeking to devise targeted and effective disaster response strategies.

Evacuation planning has been recognized as one of the best tools for safeguarding the population against tsunami hazards. In this work we develop a novel methodology to identify and classify urban micro-vulnerabilities that may difficult pedestrian evacuation processes resulting from problems in urban design or informal uses of the public space. The correct identification and correction of these issues could make the difference in saving lives when the available time for evacuation is short.

On 10 September 2017, Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys and caused significant damage. To better understand the hurricane's damage to the Florida Keys, we first conducted hydrodynamic storm surge and wave modeling. By checking the surge hazards and post-damage satellite data, we determined the places to conduct detailed on-site surveys. We assessed 1600+ damaged residential buildings in Big Pine Key and Marathon. A statistical model is developed to understand damaging factors.

Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.

By analyzing a comprehensive loss dataset of affected private households after a recent river flood event in northern Italy, we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy). We develop empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for the residential sector. Outcomes highlight that the latter seem to outperform the former and, in addition, results show a higher accuracy of univariable models based on local data compared to literature ones derived for different contexts.