Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 17–30, 2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 05 Jan 2017
Research article | 05 Jan 2017
Data assimilation of Argo profiles in a northwestern Pacific model
Zhaoyi Wang et al.
No articles found.
Katherine M. Smith, Skyler Kern, Peter E. Hamlington, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Emily F. Klee, and Kyle E. Niemeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2419–2442,Short summary
We present a newly developed reduced-order biogeochemical flux model that is complex and flexible enough to capture open-ocean ecosystem dynamics but reduced enough to incorporate into highly resolved numerical simulations with limited additional computational cost. The model provides improved correlations between model output and field data, indicating that significant improvements in the reproduction of real-world data can be achieved with a small number of variables.
Jingui Liu, Shanglu Li, Xuanliang Ji, Guimei Liu, Qingqing Pan, and Yun Li
Ocean Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
The coastal East China Sea (ECS) is a highly productive system characterized of multiple spatial and temporal scale, in which physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes strongly interact. A coupled model system was implemented to a high resolution coastal ECS. The model was capable to reproduce main temporal and spatial features for phytoplankton and nutrients. This work could form a significant basis for future work, e.g. the response of biogeochemical flux to physical mechanism.
Eric Jansen, Sam Pimentel, Wang-Hung Tse, Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Isabelle Mirouze, and Andrea Storto
Ocean Sci., 15, 1023–1032,Short summary
The assimilation of satellite SST data into ocean models is complex. The temperature of the thin uppermost layer that is measured by satellites may differ from the much thicker upper layer used in numerical models, leading to biased results. This paper shows how canonical correlation analysis can be used to generate observation operators from existing datasets of model states and corresponding observation values. This type of operator can correct for near-surface effects when assimilating SST.
Gerasimos Korres, Dimitra Denaxa, Eric Jansen, Isabelle Mirouze, Sam Pimentel, Wang-Hung Tse, and Andrea Storto
Ocean Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint withdrawnShort summary
A statistical-dynamical observation operator (SOSSTA) for satellite SST data assimilation able to account for SST diurnal variability, is formulated and implemented into the POSEIDON forecasting system (Aegean Sea). Model experiments where daytime SST retrievals from the SEVIRI infrared radiometer are introduced into the data assimilation procedure through the application of the observation operator, showed an improvement of the POSEIDON modelling system performance.
Ali Aydoğdu, Nadia Pinardi, Emin Özsoy, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Özgür Gürses, and Alicia Karspeck
Ocean Sci., 14, 999–1019,Short summary
A 6-year simulation of the Turkish Straits System is presented. The simulation is performed by a model using unstructured triangular mesh and realistic atmospheric forcing. The dynamics and circulation of the Marmara Sea are analysed and the mean state of the system is discussed on annual averages. Volume fluxes computed throughout the simulation are presented and the response of the model to severe storms is shown. Finally, it was possible to assess the kinetic energy budget in the Marmara Sea.
Ali Aydoğdu, Timothy J. Hoar, Tomislava Vukicevic, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Nadia Pinardi, Alicia Karspeck, Jonathan Hendricks, Nancy Collins, Francesca Macchia, and Emin Özsoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 537–551,Short summary
This study presents, to our knowledge, the first data assimilation experiments in the Sea of Marmara. We propose a FerryBox network for monitoring the state of the sea and show that assimilation of the temperature and salinity improves the forecasts in the basin. The flow of the Bosphorus helps to propagate the error reduction. The study can be taken as a step towards a marine forecasting system in the Sea of Marmara that will help to improve the forecasts in the adjacent Black and Aegean seas.
Marianne Pietschnig, Michael Mayer, Takamasa Tsubouchi, Andrea Storto, Sebastian Stichelberger, and Leopold Haimberger
Ocean Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
New estimates of volume and temperature transports into the Arctic Ocean through the four major gateways (Davis, Fram and Bering Strait and the Barents Sea Opening) have recently become available. These estimates are derived from moored observations. In this study, the same transports derived from a recent ocean reanalysis are compared to the observation-based estimates in the straits. In addition, cross-section plots of velocity, temperature and temperature flux density are investigated.
Giorgia Verri, Nadia Pinardi, David Gochis, Joseph Tribbia, Antonio Navarra, Giovanni Coppini, and Tomislava Vukicevic
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1741–1761,
Giovanni Coppini, Palmalisa Marra, Rita Lecci, Nadia Pinardi, Sergio Cretì, Mario Scalas, Luca Tedesco, Alessandro D'Anca, Leopoldo Fazioli, Antonio Olita, Giuseppe Turrisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Giovanni Aloisio, Sandro Fiore, Antonio Bonaduce, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Ivan Federico, Gianandrea Mannarini, Paola Agostini, Roberto Bonarelli, Sara Martinelli, Giorgia Verri, Letizia Lusito, Davide Rollo, Arturo Cavallo, Antonio Tumolo, Tony Monacizzo, Marco Spagnulo, Rorberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Marina Tonani, Massimiliano Drudi, Paola Nassisi, Laura Conte, Laura Panzera, Antonio Navarra, and Giancarlo Negro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547,Short summary
SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
Ivan Federico, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, Rita Lecci, and Michele Mossa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 45–59,Short summary
SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, which provides short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields for the nested system.
Giovanni Coppini, Eric Jansen, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Creti, Elena Yurievna Shchekinova, Nadia Pinardi, Rita Lecci, Ivano Carluccio, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Alessandro D'Anca, Gianandrea Mannarini, Sara Martinelli, Palmalisa Marra, Tommaso Capodiferro, and Tommaso Gismondi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2713–2727,Short summary
A new web-based and mobile Decision Support System (DSS) for Search-And-Rescue (SAR) at sea is presented, and its performance is evaluated using real case scenarios. The system, named OCEAN-SAR, is accessible via the website http://www.ocean-sar.com. OCEAN-SAR simulates drifting objects at sea, using as input ocean currents and wind. The performance of the service is evaluated by comparing simulations to data from the Italian Coast Guard pertaining to actual incidents in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639,Short summary
A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
Jingjing Zheng, Shan Gao, Guimei Liu, Hui Wang, and Xueming Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2559–2576,Short summary
In this paper, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was coupled to a biological model to simulate the ecological system of the East China Sea. In addition, the sensitive experiments were also used to examine the role of physical forcing (river discharge, wind speed, wind direction) in controlling hypoxia in waters adjacent the Yangtze Estuary. The results showed that the wind field and river discharge have significant impact on the hypoxia off the Yangtze Estuary.
Andrea Storto and Simona Masina
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 679–696,Short summary
A large number of applications related to the study of ocean climate require reliable datasets of the main physical variables of the ocean. Ocean reanalyses are a methodology based on the synthesis of information from ocean observations and models, and near-surface atmospheric observations into a dataset in a way as consistent in time as possible. In this paper, we describe and validate an upgraded version of the CMCC global ocean physical reanalysis (1980–present) at 1 / 4° resolution.
Paolo Oddo, Andrea Storto, Srdjan Dobricic, Aniello Russo, Craig Lewis, Reiner Onken, and Emanuel Coelho
Ocean Sci., 12, 1137–1153,
Emanuela Fiori, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Cristina Mazziotti, and Carla Rita Ferrari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2043–2054,Short summary
This study shows the capability of the numerical model in reproducing the trophic index (TRIX) calculated from in situ data. The ecosystem simulations can represent an important support for monitoring activities, allowing the use of TRIX to be extended to larger areas where in situ sampling activities are difficult to implement. The model TRIX was calculated for the whole Adriatic Sea, showing trophic differences across the Adriatic Sea.
Svitlana Liubartseva, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi, Michela De Dominicis, Rita Lecci, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Cretì, Sara Martinelli, Paola Agostini, Palmalisa Marra, and Francesco Palermo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009–2020,Short summary
An innovative fully operational 24/7 web-based decision support system, WITOIL (Where Is The Oil), has been developed to support oil pollution response. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and dynamic service delivery. Comprehensive computational resources and network bandwidth efficiently support the multi-user regime. The eight-language graphical user interface incorporates a great variety of user services, e.g., help and support, tooltips, and video tutorials.
Doroteaciro Iovino, Simona Masina, Andrea Storto, Andrea Cipollone, and Vladimir N. Stepanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2665–2684,Short summary
An 11-year simulation of a global eddying ocean (1/16) configuration is presented. Model performance is evaluated against observations and a twin 1/4 configuration. The model realistically represents the variability at upper and intermediate depths, the position and strength of the surface circulation, and exchanges of mass through key passages. Sea ice properties are close to satellite observations. This simulation constitutes the groundwork for future applications to short range ocean forecasting.
Jenny Pistoia, Nadia Pinardi, Paolo Oddo, Matthew Collins, Gerasimos Korres, and Yann Drillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1807–1819,Short summary
In this work we developed a new multi-model super-ensemble method to estimate sea surface temperature, an important product of ocean analysis systems. We find that ensemble size, quality, type of members and the training period length are all important elements of the MMSE methodology and require careful calibration. We show that with a rather limited but overconfident data set (with a low bias of the starting ensemble members) the RMSE analysis can be improved.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791–1806,Short summary
Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.
Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1628,Short summary
In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976,Short summary
This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Xueming Zhu, Hui Wang, Guimei Liu, Charly Régnier, Xiaodi Kuang, Dakui Wang, Shihe Ren, Zhiyou Jing, and Marie Drévillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1639–1655,Short summary
This paper examined the performances of two operational ocean forecasting systems, Mercator Océan in France and SCSOFS in China, based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012. The comparison and validation are focused on the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities in the South China Sea. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for both systems to improve their performances in the near future.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, and Alessandro Iafrati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1597–1625,Short summary
VISIR is a new numerical model for the computation of optimal ship routes from meteo-marine forecasts. VISIR offers the scientific community an open platform whereby various ideas and methods for ship route optimization can be shared, tested, and compared to each other.
Shouwen Zhang, Hua Jiang, Hui Wang, Ling Du, and Dakui Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
P. Oddo, A. Bonaduce, N. Pinardi, and A. Guarnieri
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3001–3015,
A. Guarnieri, A. J. Souza, N. Pinardi, and P. Traykovski
Ocean Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
L. Visinelli, S. Masina, M. Vichi, and A. Storto
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Lardner
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1851–1869,
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Archetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1871–1888,
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Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296,Short summary
We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245,Short summary
A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Dailé Avila-Alonso, Jan M. Baetens, Rolando Cardenas, and Bernard De Baets
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 837–859,Short summary
Hurricanes are extreme storms that induce substantial biophysical changes on oceans. We investigated the effects induced by consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. These hurricanes superimposed effects on the upper-ocean response because of the strong induced mixing and upwelling. The sea surface cooling and phytoplankton bloom induced by these hurricanes were higher compared to climatological records.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 775–789,Short summary
The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–805,Short summary
Numerical models need to be validated prior to their use as predictive tools. This requirement becomes even more necessary when these models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural hazards where human lives are involved. The present work aims to benchmark the novel Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide-generated tsunamis produced by granular slides, in order to provide to the tsunami community with a robust, efficient, and reliable tool for landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722,Short summary
Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605,Short summary
Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585,Short summary
In current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying-seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed, and the finite-element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying seawater and the seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Scott Curtis, Kelley DePolt, Jamie Kruse, Anuradha Mukherji, Jennifer Helgeson, Ausmita Ghosh, and Philip Van Wagoner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Storm surge flooding can challenge rescue and recovery operations, especially over large estuaries and populated barrier islands. Understanding the relationship between storm and tidal characteristics and surge timing is important for proper resourcing prior to an event. Here we compare the concurrency of maximum observed surge and areal extent of effective hazard operations for Hurricanes Matthew and Florence in eastern North Carolina, USA. Matthew was a more spatially compounded surge event.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 363–374,Short summary
This paper describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding seashore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Wolin island, Poland). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae–Fagetum type) on the Wolin island is the only such well known site in the world. It was found that for the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than seashore erosion.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 239–260,Short summary
Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables: wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Sebastian J. Pitman, Katie Thompson, Deirdre E. Hart, Kevin Moran, Shari L. Gallop, Robert W. Brander, and Adam Wooler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 115–128,Short summary
This study aimed to identify how well beach users could spot rip currents in real time at the beach. It was performed in response to the fact that rip currents are the leading cause of drownings on recreational beaches worldwide. We found that only one in five people were able to spot the rip current, meaning the vast majority would be unable to make good decisions about where it is safe to swim at the beach.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Sander Rikka, Victor Alari, Aarne Männik, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609,Short summary
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Amine Ben Daoued, Yasser Hamdi, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau, and Philippe Sergent
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3387–3398,Short summary
This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding by combining the tide with extreme storm surges (SSs). In this work, methods for tide and SS combination were compared. Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.
Fei Ye, Wei Huang, Yinglong J. Zhang, Saeed Moghimi, Edward Myers, Shachak Pe’eri, and Hao-Cheng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Compound flooding is caused by multiple mechanisms contributing to elevated water level simultaneously, which poses higher risks than conventional floods. This study uses a holistic approach to simulate the processes on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales that contribute to the compound flooding during Hurricane Florence in 2018. Sensitivity tests are used to isolate the contribution from each mechanism and identify the region experiencing compound effects, thus supporting management.
Iskander Abroug, Nizar Abcha, Armelle Jarno, and François Marin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3279–3291,Short summary
Coastal regions are affected frequently by extreme waves resulting from storms, causing human fatalities and economic losses. Using a bispectral analysis based on the wavelet-based bicoherence tool, we present an experimental study of the propagation of large-amplitude focused wave groups in coastal regions. The results are consistent with the spectral broadening demonstrated in previous works using the classic Fourier analysis.
Imen Turki, Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Benoit Laignel, Stéphane Costa, Matthieu Fournier, and Olivier Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243,Short summary
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Shigehiro Fujino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
A case study was conducted at the Phra Thong island, Thailand caused by 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using deep neural network (DNN) inverse model. The model estimated tsunami characteristics from the deposits at Phra Thong island. The uncertainty quantification of the result was evaluated. The predicted flow conditions and the depositional characteristics were compared with the reported observed values. This DNN model can serve as an essential tool for tsunami hazard mitigation at coastal cities.
Stéphane Abadie, Alexandre Paris, Riadh Ata, Sylvestre Le Roy, Gael Arnaud, Adrien Poupardin, Lucie Clous, Philippe Heinrich, Jeffrey Harris, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Yann Krien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3019–3038,Short summary
The tsunami which could be generated by a potential flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, is evaluated through a numerical simulation based on an advanced and finely calibrated model. Then the consequences of such an event for Europe, France and Guadeloupe island are investigated using different numerical models for propagation. The impacts vary from negligible to very significant depending on the location considered.
Katsuichiro Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, and Flavia De Luca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056,Short summary
Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841,Short summary
This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Xianwu Shi, Pubing Yu, Zhixing Guo, Zhilin Sun, Fuyuan Chen, Xiuguang Wu, Wenlong Cheng, and Jian Zeng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2777–2790,Short summary
This study presents a method for the calculation of storm surge inundation simulation under different typhoon intensity scenarios. The parameters including typhoon track, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream runoff under different typhoon intensity scenarios were set. The inundation extents and depths corresponding to the storm surges under different typhoon intensity scenarios were simulated in combination with the numerical model.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680,Short summary
Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626,Short summary
We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546,Short summary
Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Mateusz C. Strzelecki and Marek W. Jaskólski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2521–2534,Short summary
To date, the effects of tsunamis have been mainly reported from tropical and temperate climatic zones. Rare records of polar tsunamis may partly reflect the very low population densities, the short written history, and little coastal geological work focused on the sedimentary record of palaeotsunamis. We report the results of the field survey of post-tsunami damage in the Nuugaatsiaq settlement in Greenland, which on 17 June 2017 was hit by three tsunami waves triggered by a landslide.
Philip M. Orton, Eric W. Sanderson, Stefan A. Talke, Mario Giampieri, and Kytt MacManus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2415–2432,Short summary
The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414,Short summary
We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2335–2349,Short summary
In 2018 windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic. He was drifting in severe conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate the optimal search-and-rescue area for a civil rescue response. Properly calibrated virtual drifter properties are key to reliable rescue area forecasting.
Adrien Poupardin, Eric Calais, Philippe Heinrich, Hélène Hébert, Mathieu Rodriguez, Sylvie Leroy, Hideo Aochi, and Roby Douilly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2055–2065,Short summary
The Mw 7 Haiti earthquake in 2010 was accompanied by local tsunamis that caused fatalities and damage to coastal infrastructure. Earthquakes alone could not explain all observations in Hispaniola Island. We suspected that a big submarine landslide occured and generated the 3 m high waves observed near Jacmel and Pedernales. We identify a landslide scar 30 km from the epicenter and at a depth of 3500 m and we simulate the corresponding tsunami which gives results very close to observations.
Iris Grabemann, Lidia Gaslikova, Tabea Brodhagen, and Elisabeth Rudolph
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1985–2000,Short summary
Storm tides threaten the low-lying regions of the North Sea protected by dikes. Extreme storm tides with very low probabilities of occurrence could be important for coastal risk management due to their potential high impact. We searched an extensive data set of simulations and identified extreme storm tides higher than those observed since 1900. We investigated how two of the events evolved in the near-shore areas of the Ems estuary and their potential for physically plausible amplification.
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968,Short summary
Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.
Marc Andreevsky, Yasser Hamdi, Samuel Griolet, Pietro Bernardara, and Roberto Frau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1705–1717,Short summary
A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The spatial extremogram technique is used to form a physically and statistically homogeneous region around the site of interest. This is of fundamental importance to conducting a more proper regional analysis. A regional frequency estimation of extreme skew storm surges on the French coasts is carried out.
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1233–1246,
Ning Xu, Shuai Yuan, Xueqin Liu, Yuxian Ma, Wenqi Shi, and Dayong Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1107–1121,Short summary
Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk assessments of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea-ice-induced vibration-related risks to jacket platforms. The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Wei-Bo Chen, Purwanto B. Santoso, Rudy T. Imananta, and Wei-Cheng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 933–946,Short summary
This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of the December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for the validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by the Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation efforts.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796,Short summary
Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Guan-Yu Chen, Chin-Chih Liu, Janaka J. Wijetunge, and Yi-Fung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–781,Short summary
Tsunamis generated by submarine landslides were considered rare. However, more and more studies indicate that many tsunami events can be attributed to submarine landslides. At the same time, knowledge and experience have been accumulated in simulating this kind of tsunami. We believe it is time to think about the forecast of this kind of tsunami, and the approach we use is very helpful in building a feasible forecast system for submarine landslide tsunamis.
Kristian Breili, Matthew James Ross Simpson, Erlend Klokkervold, and Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 673–694,Short summary
Using accurate elevation data, we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Although Norway is at low risk from sea level rise, parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. Nationwide we identify an area of 400 km2, 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a storm surge at present (these numbers increase to 610 km2, 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090). The maps aid coastal management and climate adaption in Norway.
Syamsidik, Benazir, Mumtaz Luthfi, Anawat Suppasri, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 549–565,Short summary
On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93,Short summary
Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Ahmed A. Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, and Denys Dutykh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2905–2913,Short summary
This work is based on the authors' idea that asymmetry of a tsunami wave gained during its propagation in the ocean should also influence its run-up height on the slope. This was previously analytically shown by the authors for sinusoidal waves. In the paper, this idea is elaborated for single waves using both semi-analytical and numerical methods. The corresponding formula for the maximum run-up height which takes into account the wave front steepness is proposed.
Andrea Cerase, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2887–2904,Short summary
Southern Italy coasts are at risk of being hit by tsunamis. To address risk mitigation policies and risk communication, the authors implemented a sample survey on 1021 interviewees living in the coastal municipalities of Calabria and Apulia. People’s risk perception appears low: almost half of the sample considers tsunamis unlikely. Relevant differences emerge as a result of different risk perception in Tyrrhenian Calabria, where people are more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Purwanto B. Santoso, Shih-Chun Hsiao, and Rudy T. Imananta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2781–2794,Short summary
This paper reports the results of a post-tsunami field survey conducted in the disaster area of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi, Indonesia, tsunami. It provides evidence covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami arrival times, damage characteristics, and coastal landslides. The results can be used for validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the Sulawesi tsunami. They are also important for mitigation, regional planning, and development.
Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Takuma Kotani, Yu Otake, and Toshikazu Kitano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2619–2634,Short summary
We demonstrate a method of tsunami risk assessment for two buildings using copulas of tsunami hazards that can consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of wave heights. As a result, the maximum value of the expected aggregate damage probability was approximately 3.0 % higher in the case considering the wave height correlation. We clearly showed the importance of considering wave height correlation and the usefulness of copula modeling in evaluating the tsunami risk of a building portfolio.
Katixa Lajaunie-Salla, Aldo Sottolichio, Sabine Schmidt, Xavier Litrico, Guillaume Binet, and Gwenaël Abril
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2551–2564,
Chris Houser, Jacob Lehner, Nathan Cherry, and Phil Wernette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2541–2549,Short summary
On many beaches, lifeguards set out flags to warn beach users of the surf and rip hazard based on the regional surf forecast and careful observation. There is a potential that the chosen flag does not accurately reflect the potential risk. Results of a machine learning analysis suggest that the greatest number of rescues occurred on days when the lifeguard flew a more cautious flag than the model predicted. It is argued that that beach users may be discounting lifeguard warnings.
Scott B. Armstrong and Eli D. Lazarus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2497–2511,Short summary
This work examines relationships between coastal hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to describe trajectories of risk at the county scale along the US Atlantic coast over the past 5 decades. Our findings suggest that modelling efforts to predict future coastal risk need to address feedbacks between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to capture emergent patterns of risk in space and time.
Tomas Beuzen, Evan B. Goldstein, and Kristen D. Splinter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2295–2309,Short summary
Wave runup is important for characterizing coastal vulnerability to wave action; however, it is complex and uncertain to predict. We use machine learning with a high-resolution dataset of wave runup to develop an accurate runup predictor that includes prediction uncertainty. We show how uncertainty in wave runup predictions can be used practically in a model of dune erosion to make ensemble predictions that provide more information and greater predictive skill than a single deterministic model.
Bruno Castelle, Tim Scott, Rob Brander, Jak McCarroll, Arthur Robinet, Eric Tellier, Elias de Korte, Bruno Simonnet, and Louis-Rachid Salmi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2183–2205,Short summary
For the first time we explore the influence of environmental conditions (wave and weather conditions, tide elevation, and beach morphology) on surf zone injuries (e.g. drowning incidents, spine injuries). Serious injuries are caused by the two primary hazards found along high-energy surf beaches: shore-break waves and narrow seaward-flowing rip currents, which have different environmental controls. Results have strong implications for future beach safety management and education of beach users.
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