Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Jan 2017
Research article |
| 05 Jan 2017
Data assimilation of Argo profiles in a northwestern Pacific model
Zhaoyi Wang
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China
(NMEFC), Beijing, 100081, China
Key laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081, China
Andrea Storto
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC),
40139 Bologna, Italy
Nadia Pinardi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC),
40139 Bologna, Italy
Guimei Liu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China
(NMEFC), Beijing, 100081, China
Key laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081, China
Hui Wang
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China
(NMEFC), Beijing, 100081, China
Key laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081, China
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José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
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The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion and emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Nadia Pinardi, Bart van den Hurk, Michael Depuydt, Thorsten Kiefer, Petra Manderscheid, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, and Kanika Singh
State Planet, 3-slre1, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, 2024
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The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (KH-SLR), a joint effort between JPI Climate and JPI Oceans, addresses the critical need for science-based information on sea level changes in Europe. The KH-SLR actively involves stakeholders through a co-design process discussing the impacts, adaptation planning, and policy requirements related to SLR in Europe. Its primary output is the KH Assessment Report (KH-AR), which is described in this volume.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Andrea Storto, Sergey Frolov, Laura Slivinski, and Chunxue Yang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-185, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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Inaccuracies in air-sea heat fluxes severely downgrade the accuracy of ocean numerical simulations. Here, we use artificial neural networks to correct the air-sea heat fluxes as a function of oceanic and atmospheric state predictors. The correction successfully improves surface and subsurface ocean temperatures beyond the training period and in prediction experiments.
Andrea Storto, Giulia Chierici, Julia Pfeffer, Anne Barnoud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Alejandro Blazquez, Davide Cavaliere, Noémie Lalau, Benjamin Coupry, Marie Drevillon, Sebastien Fourest, Gilles Larnicol, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-12-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-12-2024, 2024
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The variability in the manometric sea level (i.e. the sea level mass component) in three ocean basins is investigated in this study using three different methods (reanalyses, gravimetry, and altimetry in combination with in situ observations). We identify the emerging long-term signals, the consistency of the datasets, and the influence of large-scale climate modes on the regional manometric sea level variations at both seasonal and interannual timescales.
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
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Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Roberta Benincasa, Giovanni Liguori, Nadia Pinardi, and Hans von Storch
Ocean Sci., 20, 1003–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, 2024
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Ocean dynamics result from the interplay of internal processes and external inputs, primarily from the atmosphere. It is crucial to discern between these factors to gauge the ocean's intrinsic predictability and to be able to attribute a signal under study to either external factors or internal variability. Employing a simple analysis, we successfully characterized this variability in the Mediterranean Sea and compared it with the oceanic response induced by atmospheric conditions.
Vincenzo de Toma, Daniele Ciani, Yassmin Hesham Essa, Chunxue Yang, Vincenzo Artale, Andrea Pisano, Davide Cavaliere, Rosalia Santoleri, and Andrea Storto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5145–5165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5145-2024, 2024
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This study explores methods to reconstruct diurnal variations in skin sea surface temperature in a model of the Mediterranean Sea. Our new approach, considering chlorophyll concentration, enhances spatial and temporal variations in the warm layer. Comparative analysis shows context-dependent improvements. The proposed "chlorophyll-interactive" method brings the surface net total heat flux closer to zero annually, despite a net heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
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Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
Ocean Sci., 19, 1483–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, 2023
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The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Andrea Storto, Yassmin Hesham Essa, Vincenzo de Toma, Alessandro Anav, Gianmaria Sannino, Rosalia Santoleri, and Chunxue Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4811–4833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4811-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4811-2023, 2023
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Regional climate models are a fundamental tool for a very large number of applications and are being increasingly used within climate services, together with other complementary approaches. Here, we introduce a new regional coupled model, intended to be later extended to a full Earth system model, for climate investigations within the Mediterranean region, coupled data assimilation experiments, and several downscaling exercises (reanalyses and long-range predictions).
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Giorgio Micaletto, Ivano Barletta, Silvia Mocavero, Ivan Federico, Italo Epicoco, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Pasquale Schiano, Giovanni Aloisio, and Nadia Pinardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, 2022
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The full exploitation of supercomputing architectures requires a deep revision of the current climate models. This paper presents the parallelization of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules). Optimized numerical libraries were used to partition the model domain and solve the sparse linear system of equations in parallel. The performance assessment demonstrates a good level of scalability with a realistic configuration used as a benchmark.
Katherine M. Smith, Skyler Kern, Peter E. Hamlington, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Emily F. Klee, and Kyle E. Niemeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2419–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, 2021
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We present a newly developed reduced-order biogeochemical flux model that is complex and flexible enough to capture open-ocean ecosystem dynamics but reduced enough to incorporate into highly resolved numerical simulations with limited additional computational cost. The model provides improved correlations between model output and field data, indicating that significant improvements in the reproduction of real-world data can be achieved with a small number of variables.
Jingui Liu, Shanglu Li, Xuanliang Ji, Guimei Liu, Qingqing Pan, and Yun Li
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-47, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The coastal East China Sea (ECS) is a highly productive system characterized of multiple spatial and temporal scale, in which physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes strongly interact. A coupled model system was implemented to a high resolution coastal ECS. The model was capable to reproduce main temporal and spatial features for phytoplankton and nutrients. This work could form a significant basis for future work, e.g. the response of biogeochemical flux to physical mechanism.
Eric Jansen, Sam Pimentel, Wang-Hung Tse, Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Isabelle Mirouze, and Andrea Storto
Ocean Sci., 15, 1023–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1023-2019, 2019
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The assimilation of satellite SST data into ocean models is complex. The temperature of the thin uppermost layer that is measured by satellites may differ from the much thicker upper layer used in numerical models, leading to biased results. This paper shows how canonical correlation analysis can be used to generate observation operators from existing datasets of model states and corresponding observation values. This type of operator can correct for near-surface effects when assimilating SST.
Gerasimos Korres, Dimitra Denaxa, Eric Jansen, Isabelle Mirouze, Sam Pimentel, Wang-Hung Tse, and Andrea Storto
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-158, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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A statistical-dynamical observation operator (SOSSTA) for satellite SST data assimilation able to account for SST diurnal variability, is formulated and implemented into the POSEIDON forecasting system (Aegean Sea). Model experiments where daytime SST retrievals from the SEVIRI infrared radiometer are introduced into the data assimilation procedure through the application of the observation operator, showed an improvement of the POSEIDON modelling system performance.
Ali Aydoğdu, Nadia Pinardi, Emin Özsoy, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Özgür Gürses, and Alicia Karspeck
Ocean Sci., 14, 999–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, 2018
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A 6-year simulation of the Turkish Straits System is presented. The simulation is performed by a model using unstructured triangular mesh and realistic atmospheric forcing. The dynamics and circulation of the Marmara Sea are analysed and the mean state of the system is discussed on annual averages. Volume fluxes computed throughout the simulation are presented and the response of the model to severe storms is shown. Finally, it was possible to assess the kinetic energy budget in the Marmara Sea.
Ali Aydoğdu, Timothy J. Hoar, Tomislava Vukicevic, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Nadia Pinardi, Alicia Karspeck, Jonathan Hendricks, Nancy Collins, Francesca Macchia, and Emin Özsoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 537–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, 2018
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This study presents, to our knowledge, the first data assimilation experiments in the Sea of Marmara. We propose a FerryBox network for monitoring the state of the sea and show that assimilation of the temperature and salinity improves the forecasts in the basin. The flow of the Bosphorus helps to propagate the error reduction. The study can be taken as a step towards a marine forecasting system in the Sea of Marmara that will help to improve the forecasts in the adjacent Black and Aegean seas.
Marianne Pietschnig, Michael Mayer, Takamasa Tsubouchi, Andrea Storto, Sebastian Stichelberger, and Leopold Haimberger
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-98, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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New estimates of volume and temperature transports into the Arctic Ocean through the four major gateways (Davis, Fram and Bering Strait and the Barents Sea Opening) have recently become available. These estimates are derived from moored observations. In this study, the same transports derived from a recent ocean reanalysis are compared to the observation-based estimates in the straits. In addition, cross-section plots of velocity, temperature and temperature flux density are investigated.
Giorgia Verri, Nadia Pinardi, David Gochis, Joseph Tribbia, Antonio Navarra, Giovanni Coppini, and Tomislava Vukicevic
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, 2017
Giovanni Coppini, Palmalisa Marra, Rita Lecci, Nadia Pinardi, Sergio Cretì, Mario Scalas, Luca Tedesco, Alessandro D'Anca, Leopoldo Fazioli, Antonio Olita, Giuseppe Turrisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Giovanni Aloisio, Sandro Fiore, Antonio Bonaduce, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Ivan Federico, Gianandrea Mannarini, Paola Agostini, Roberto Bonarelli, Sara Martinelli, Giorgia Verri, Letizia Lusito, Davide Rollo, Arturo Cavallo, Antonio Tumolo, Tony Monacizzo, Marco Spagnulo, Rorberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Marina Tonani, Massimiliano Drudi, Paola Nassisi, Laura Conte, Laura Panzera, Antonio Navarra, and Giancarlo Negro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, 2017
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SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
Ivan Federico, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, Rita Lecci, and Michele Mossa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, 2017
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SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, which provides short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields for the nested system.
Giovanni Coppini, Eric Jansen, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Creti, Elena Yurievna Shchekinova, Nadia Pinardi, Rita Lecci, Ivano Carluccio, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Alessandro D'Anca, Gianandrea Mannarini, Sara Martinelli, Palmalisa Marra, Tommaso Capodiferro, and Tommaso Gismondi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2713–2727, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, 2016
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A new web-based and mobile Decision Support System (DSS) for Search-And-Rescue (SAR) at sea is presented, and its performance is evaluated using real case scenarios. The system, named OCEAN-SAR, is accessible via the website http://www.ocean-sar.com. OCEAN-SAR simulates drifting objects at sea, using as input ocean currents and wind. The performance of the service is evaluated by comparing simulations to data from the Italian Coast Guard pertaining to actual incidents in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
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A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
Jingjing Zheng, Shan Gao, Guimei Liu, Hui Wang, and Xueming Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2559-2016, 2016
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In this paper, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was coupled to a biological model to simulate the ecological system of the East China Sea. In addition, the sensitive experiments were also used to examine the role of physical forcing (river discharge, wind speed, wind direction) in controlling hypoxia in waters adjacent the Yangtze Estuary. The results showed that the wind field and river discharge have significant impact on the hypoxia off the Yangtze Estuary.
Andrea Storto and Simona Masina
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 679–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-679-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-679-2016, 2016
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A large number of applications related to the study of ocean climate require reliable datasets of the main physical variables of the ocean. Ocean reanalyses are a methodology based on the synthesis of information from ocean observations and models, and near-surface atmospheric observations into a dataset in a way as consistent in time as possible. In this paper, we describe and validate an upgraded version of the CMCC global ocean physical reanalysis (1980–present) at 1 / 4° resolution.
Paolo Oddo, Andrea Storto, Srdjan Dobricic, Aniello Russo, Craig Lewis, Reiner Onken, and Emanuel Coelho
Ocean Sci., 12, 1137–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1137-2016, 2016
Emanuela Fiori, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Cristina Mazziotti, and Carla Rita Ferrari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2043–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, 2016
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This study shows the capability of the numerical model in reproducing the trophic index (TRIX) calculated from in situ data. The ecosystem simulations can represent an important support for monitoring activities, allowing the use of TRIX to be extended to larger areas where in situ sampling activities are difficult to implement. The model TRIX was calculated for the whole Adriatic Sea, showing trophic differences across the Adriatic Sea.
Svitlana Liubartseva, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi, Michela De Dominicis, Rita Lecci, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Cretì, Sara Martinelli, Paola Agostini, Palmalisa Marra, and Francesco Palermo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, 2016
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An innovative fully operational 24/7 web-based decision support system, WITOIL (Where Is The Oil), has been developed to support oil pollution response. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and dynamic service delivery. Comprehensive computational resources and network bandwidth efficiently support the multi-user regime. The eight-language graphical user interface incorporates a great variety of user services, e.g., help and support, tooltips, and video tutorials.
Doroteaciro Iovino, Simona Masina, Andrea Storto, Andrea Cipollone, and Vladimir N. Stepanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2665–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2665-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2665-2016, 2016
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An 11-year simulation of a global eddying ocean (1/16) configuration is presented. Model performance is evaluated against observations and a twin 1/4 configuration. The model realistically represents the variability at upper and intermediate depths, the position and strength of the surface circulation, and exchanges of mass through key passages. Sea ice properties are close to satellite observations. This simulation constitutes the groundwork for future applications to short range ocean forecasting.
Jenny Pistoia, Nadia Pinardi, Paolo Oddo, Matthew Collins, Gerasimos Korres, and Yann Drillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1807–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, 2016
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In this work we developed a new multi-model super-ensemble method to estimate sea surface temperature, an important product of ocean analysis systems. We find that ensemble size, quality, type of members and the training period length are all important elements of the MMSE methodology and require careful calibration. We show that with a rather limited but overconfident data set (with a low bias of the starting ensemble members) the RMSE analysis can be improved.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016
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Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.
Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, 2016
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In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, 2016
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This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Xueming Zhu, Hui Wang, Guimei Liu, Charly Régnier, Xiaodi Kuang, Dakui Wang, Shihe Ren, Zhiyou Jing, and Marie Drévillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1639–1655, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1639-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1639-2016, 2016
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This paper examined the performances of two operational ocean forecasting systems, Mercator Océan in France and SCSOFS in China, based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012. The comparison and validation are focused on the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities in the South China Sea. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for both systems to improve their performances in the near future.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, and Alessandro Iafrati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1597–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, 2016
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VISIR is a new numerical model for the computation of optimal ship routes from meteo-marine forecasts. VISIR offers the scientific community an open platform whereby various ideas and methods for ship route optimization can be shared, tested, and compared to each other.
Shouwen Zhang, Hua Jiang, Hui Wang, Ling Du, and Dakui Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-83, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
P. Oddo, A. Bonaduce, N. Pinardi, and A. Guarnieri
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3001–3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, 2014
A. Guarnieri, A. J. Souza, N. Pinardi, and P. Traykovski
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
L. Visinelli, S. Masina, M. Vichi, and A. Storto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-5399-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-5399-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Lardner
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1851–1869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, 2013
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Archetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1871–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Changing Sea Level, Changing Shorelines: Comparison of Remote Sensing Observations at the Terschelling Barrier Island
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
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Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
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Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
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Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
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In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
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Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
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Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
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We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
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The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
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Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
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The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
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Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
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We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
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Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
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Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
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The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
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The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
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We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
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Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
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We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
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Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
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Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
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Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
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Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
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A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
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Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
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Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
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Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System ECFAS project, presents an approach used to estimate coastal flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
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This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
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Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
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Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
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Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
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A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
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Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
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In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Bene Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2320, 2023
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Shorelines retreat or advanve in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, LiDAR and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
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Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
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For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
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Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
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Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
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Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
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We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
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This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
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We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
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The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
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Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
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Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
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High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
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External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
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