Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-833-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-833-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Mar 2016
Research article |
| 23 Mar 2016
Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas
María Carolina Rogelis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
UNESCO-IHE, P.O. Box 3015, 2601DA Delft, the Netherlands
Micha Werner
UNESCO-IHE, P.O. Box 3015, 2601DA Delft, the Netherlands
Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600MH Delft, the Netherlands
Nelson Obregón
Universidad Javeriana, KR 7 No 40-62, Bogotá, Colombia
Nigel Wright
School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Related authors
María Carolina Rogelis and Micha Werner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 853–870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-853-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-853-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental for flood early warning, particularly in tropical mountainous watersheds. This paper aims to assess the potential of NWP for flood early warning purposes, and the possible improvement that the post-processing of forecasts can provide, in a tropical mountainous area. The results show the potential of NWP but also the need for more detailed evaluation of the meteorological model in the study area.
María Carolina Rogelis, Micha Werner, Nelson Obregón, and Nigel Wright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-30, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A distributed model (TETIS), a semi-distributed model (TOPMODEL) and a lumped model (HEC HMS soil moisture accounting) were used to simulate the discharge response of a tropical high mountain basin. Performance analysis and diagnostics were carried out in order to identify the most appropriate model for the study area for flood early warning. The results show that TOPMODEL is the most realistic model of the three tested.
M. C. Rogelis and M. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3043–3064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3043-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3043-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
A method for assessing regional debris flow susceptibility at the watershed scale, based on an index composed of a morphometric indicator and a land cover indicator, is proposed and applied in 106 peri-urban mountainous watersheds in Bogota, Colombia. The indicator of debris flow susceptibility is obtained from readily available information common to most peri-urban mountainous areas and can be used to prioritise watersheds that can subsequently be subjected to detailed hazard analysis.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Silvana Bolaños Chavarría, Micha Werner, Juan Fernando Salazar, and Teresita Betancur Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4323–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using total water storage (TWS) from GRACE satellites, we assess the reliability of global hydrological and land surface models over a medium-sized tropical basin with a well-developed gauging network. We find the models poorly represent TWS for the monthly series, but they improve in representing seasonality and long-term trends. We conclude that GRACE provides a valuable dataset to benchmark global simulations of TWS change, offering a useful tool to improve global models in tropical basins.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Agathe Bucherie, Micha Werner, Marc van den Homberg, and Simon Tembo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 461–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Local communities in northern Malawi have well-developed knowledge of the conditions leading to flash floods, spatially and temporally. Scientific analysis of catchment geomorphology and global reanalysis datasets corroborates this local knowledge, underlining the potential of these large-scale scientific datasets. Combining local knowledge with contemporary scientific datasets provides a common understanding of flash flood events, contributing to a more people-centred warning to flash floods.
Alexander Kaune, Faysal Chowdhury, Micha Werner, and James Bennett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3851-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3851-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper was developed from PhD research focused on assessing the value of using hydrological datasets in water resource management. Previous studies have assessed how well data can help in predicting river flows, but there is a lack of knowledge of how well data can help in water allocation decisions. In our research, it was found that using seasonal streamflow forecasts improves the available water estimates, resulting in better water allocation decisions in a highly regulated basin.
Alexander Kaune, Micha Werner, Patricia López López, Erasmo Rodríguez, Poolad Karimi, and Charlotte de Fraiture
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2351–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2351-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The value of using longer periods of record of river discharge information from global precipitation datasets is assessed for irrigation area planning. Results show that for all river discharge simulations the benefit of choosing the irrigated area based on the 30 years of simulated data is higher compared to using only 5 years of observed discharge data. Hence, irrigated areas can be better planned using 30 years of river discharge information from global precipitation datasets.
Clara Linés, Ana Iglesias, Luis Garrote, Vicente Sotés, and Micha Werner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5901–5917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5901-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we follow a user-based approach to examine operational drought management decisions and how the role of information on them can be assessed. The approach combines a stakeholder consultation and a decision model representing the interrelated decisions of the irrigation association and farmers. The decision model was extended to include information on snow cover from satellite. This contributed to better decisions in the simulation and ultimately higher benefits for the farmers.
Gaby J. Gründemann, Micha Werner, and Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4667–4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4667-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4667-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding in vulnerable and data-sparse regions such as the Limpopo basin in Southern Africa is a key concern. Data available to local flood managers are often limited, inconsistent or asymmetrically distributed. We demonstrate that freely available global datasets are well suited to provide essential information. Despite the poor performance of simulated discharges, these datasets hold potential in identifying damaging flood events, particularly for higher-resolution datasets and larger basins.
María Carolina Rogelis and Micha Werner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 853–870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-853-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-853-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental for flood early warning, particularly in tropical mountainous watersheds. This paper aims to assess the potential of NWP for flood early warning purposes, and the possible improvement that the post-processing of forecasts can provide, in a tropical mountainous area. The results show the potential of NWP but also the need for more detailed evaluation of the meteorological model in the study area.
Clara Linés, Micha Werner, and Wim Bastiaanssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4747–4765, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4747-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4747-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims at identifying Earth observation data sets that can help river basin managers detect drought conditions that may lead to impacts early enough to take mitigation actions. Six remote sensing products were assessed using two types of impact data as a benchmark: media records from a regional newspaper and crop yields. Precipitation, vegetation condition and evapotranspiration products showed the best results, offering early signs of impacts up to 6 months before the reported damages.
María Carolina Rogelis, Micha Werner, Nelson Obregón, and Nigel Wright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-30, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A distributed model (TETIS), a semi-distributed model (TOPMODEL) and a lumped model (HEC HMS soil moisture accounting) were used to simulate the discharge response of a tropical high mountain basin. Performance analysis and diagnostics were carried out in order to identify the most appropriate model for the study area for flood early warning. The results show that TOPMODEL is the most realistic model of the three tested.
P. Trambauer, M. Werner, H. C. Winsemius, S. Maskey, E. Dutra, and S. Uhlenbrook
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1695-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1695-2015, 2015
M. C. Rogelis and M. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3043–3064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3043-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3043-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
A method for assessing regional debris flow susceptibility at the watershed scale, based on an index composed of a morphometric indicator and a land cover indicator, is proposed and applied in 106 peri-urban mountainous watersheds in Bogota, Colombia. The indicator of debris flow susceptibility is obtained from readily available information common to most peri-urban mountainous areas and can be used to prioritise watersheds that can subsequently be subjected to detailed hazard analysis.
F. F. Worku, M. Werner, N. Wright, P. van der Zaag, and S. S. Demissie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3837–3853, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3837-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3837-2014, 2014
P. Trambauer, S. Maskey, M. Werner, F. Pappenberger, L. P. H. van Beek, and S. Uhlenbrook
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2925–2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2925-2014, 2014
P. Trambauer, E. Dutra, S. Maskey, M. Werner, F. Pappenberger, L. P. H. van Beek, and S. Uhlenbrook
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 193–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-193-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
A Guide of Indicators Creation for Critical Infrastructures Resilience. Based on a Multi-criteria Framework Focusing on Optimisation Actions for Road Transport System
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Dynamic Response of Pile-Slab Retaining Wall Structure under Rockfall Impact
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances will increase in the future endangering our forests and their provision of wood, protection against natural hazards and carbon sequestration. Considering the hazard to forests by wind or fire damage together with vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize high-risk forest stands. In this study we propose a new methodological approach helping with decision-making process for climate-smart forest management.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Operationalision of “resilience” will be a major milestone contributing to hazard management for Critical infrastructures (CIs). To integrate resilience assessment into operational management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables users to create specific indicators to suit their particular situation. The assessment results can assist CIs managers in their decision-making as it is based on a multi-criteria framework that considers the various interests of stakeholders.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript addresses to numerically analyze the dynamic responses and damage mechanism of the pile-slab retaining wall under the rockfall impacts by employing the refined finite element model. The results provide insights into structure dynamic response analysis of the PSRW and serve as a benchmark for further research.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, and Zacharias Fasoulakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses which can impact population and assets of different types. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess the feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed to facilitate a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Cited articles
Akbas, S., Blahut, J., and Sterlacchini, S.: Critical assessment of existing
physical vulnerability estimation approaches for debris flows, in: Landslide
processes: from geomorphological mapping to dynamic modelling, 229–233,
2009.
Albano, R., Sole, A., Adamowski, J., and Mancusi, L.: A GIS-based model to
estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability
of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 14, 2847–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2847-2014, 2014.
Balica, S. F., Wright, N. G., and van der Meulen, F.: A flood vulnerability
index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts, Nat. Hazards, 64, 73–105, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0234-1, 2012.
Barrenechea, J., Gentile, E., González, S., and Natenson, C.: Una
propuesta metodológica para el estudio de la vulnerabilidad social en
el marco de la teoría social del riesgo, in: IV Jornadas de
Sociología, edited by: Facultad de Ciencias Sociales
Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 1–13, 2000.
Barroca, B., Bernardara, P., Mouchel, J. M., and Hubert, G.: Indicators for
identification of urban flooding vulnerability, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 6, 553–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-553-2006, 2006.
Beltrán, J.: Crecimiento Urbano, Pobreza y Medio Ambiente en
Bogotá: Los Efectors Soci Ambientales en Tres Humedales, in: CII
Seminario Nacional de Investigación Urbano Regional,
Medellín, Colombia, 1–13, 2008.
Bernal, G., Rosero, M., Cadena, M., Montealegre, J., and Sanabria, F.: Estudio
de la Caracterización Climática de Bogotá y cuenca alta del
Río Tunjuelo, Tech. rep., Instituto de Hidrología,
Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales IDEAM – Fondo de Prevención y
Atención de Emergencias FOPAE, Bogotá, Colombia, 2007.
Birkmann, J.: Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: toward disaster
resilient societies, second edn., edited by: Birkmann, J., United Nations University Press, New York, USA, 460 pp., 2006.
Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M.,
Schneiderbauer, S., Kienberger, S., Keiler, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., and
Welle, T.: Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE
framework, Nat. Hazards, 67, 193–211, 2013.
Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M.,
Schneiderbauer, S., Zeil, P., and Welle, T.: Theoretical and Conceptual
Framework for the Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards and Climate
Change in Europe, in: Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: A
European Perspective, edited by: Birkmann, J., Kienberger, S., and Alexander,
D., Elsevier, San Diego, California, USA, chap. 1, 1–19, 2014.
Buendía, J. A. T.: Relaciones socioespaciales en los Cerros Orientales:
prácticas , valores y formas de apropiación territorial en torno a
las quebradas la Vieja y las Delicias en Bogotá, PhD thesis,
Universidad Colegio Mayor Nuestra Señora del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia, 2013.
Cardona, O.: The need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk
from a holistic perspective: a necessary review and criticism for effective
risk management, in: Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and
People, edited by: Bankoff, G., Frerks, G., and Hilhorst, D., chap. 3, Earthscan
Publishers, London, UK, 37–51, 2003.
Cardona, O. D.: Estimación Holística del Riesgo Sísmico
utilizando Sistemas Dinámicos Complejos, PhD thesis, Universidad
Politécnica de Cataluña, Barcelona, Spain, 2001.
Cardona, O. D., Van Aalts, M. K., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., Glenn, M.,
Perez, R., Pulwarty, R. S., Schipper, L. F., and Sinh, B. T.: Determinants
of Risk : Exposure and Vulnerability, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report
of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, chap. Determinan, 65–108, 2012.
Carroll, J.: An analytical solution for approximating simple structure in
factor analysis, Psychometrika, 18, 23–38, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02289025, 1953.
Carroll, J.: Biquartimin criterion for rotation to oblique simple structure in
factor analysis, Science, 126, 1114–1115, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.126.3283.1114, 1957.
Cattell, R.: The scree test for the number of factors, Multivar. Behav. Res., 1, 245–276, https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327906mbr0102_10, 1966.
Chen, Y., Barrett, D., Liu, R., and Gao, L.: A spatial framework for
regional-scale flooding risk assessment, 7th International Congress on
Environmental Modelling and Software, 15–19 June 2014, San Diego, CA, USA, 2014.
Cimmery, B. V.: User Guide for SAGA (version 2.0.5), 2, 2010.
Costa, J.: Rheologic, geomorphic, and sedimentologic differentiation of water
floods, hyperconcentrated flows, and debris flows, in: Flood Geomorphology,
edited by: Baker, V. R., Kochel, R. C., and Patton, P. C., Wiley, New York, USA, 113–122, 1988.
Cutter, S., Boruff, B., and Shirley, W.: Social vulnerability to environmental
hazards, Soc. Sci. Quart., 84, 242–261, https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002, 2003.
Cutter, S. L., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate, E., and
Webb, J.: A place-based model for understanding community resilience to
natural disasters, Global Environ. Chang., 18, 598–606, 2008.
DPAE: Diagnóstico Técnico 1836, Tech. rep., Direccion de
Prevención y Atención de Emergencias de Bogotá, Bogotá,
Colombia, 2003a.
DPAE: Diagnóstico Técnico 1891, Tech. rep., Direccion de
Prevención y Atención de Emergencias de Bogotá, Bogotá,
Colombia, 2003b.
DPAE: Diagnóstico Técnico 2414, Tech. rep., Direccion de
Prevención y Atención de Emergencias de Bogotá, Bogotá, Colombia, 2005.
Esty, D., Srebotnjak, T., Kim, C., Levy, M., Sherbinin, A., and Anderson, B.:
Pilot 2006 Environmental Performance Index, Tech. rep., Yale Center for
Environmental Law & Policy, New Haven, USA, 2006.
Fekete, A.: Validation of a social vulnerability index in context to
river-floods in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 393–403,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-393-2009, 2009.
Fuchs, S.: Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria –
paradigms of vulnerability revisited, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9,
337–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-337-2009, 2009.
Fuchs, S. and Holub, M.: Reducing Physical Vulnerability to Mountain Hazards,
in: 12th Congress INTERPRAEVENT 2012, Grenoble, France, 675–686, 2012.
Fuchs, S., Heiss, K., and Hübl, J.: Towards an empirical vulnerability
function for use in debris flow risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 7, 495–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-495-2007, 2007.
Fuchs, S., Tsao, T.-C., and Keiler, M.: Quantitative Vulnerability Functions
for use in Mountain Hazard Risk Management, in: 12th Congress INTERPRAEVENT
2012, Grenoble, France, 885–896, 2012.
Gallant, J. and Dowling, T.: A multiresolution index of valley bottom flatness
for mapping depositional areas, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1347–1360,
2003.
Greiving, S.: Multi-risk assessment of Europe's regions, Measuring
Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Toward Disaster Resilient Societies, United Nations University, New York, USA, 2006.
Harris, C. and Kaiser, H.: Oblique factor analytic solutions by orthogonal
transformations, Psychometrika, 29, 347–362, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02289601, 1964.
Hendrickson, A. and White, P.: Promax: A quick method for rotation to oblique
simple structure, Brit. J. Statist. Psych., 1964.
Holub, M., Suda, J., and Fuchs, S.: Mountain hazards: Reducing vulnerability
by adapted building design, Environ. Earth Sci., 66, 1853–1870,
2012.
Horn, J.: A rationale and test for the number of factors in factor analysis,
Psychometrika, 30, 179–185, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02289447, 1965.
Hu, K. H., Cui, P., and Zhang, J. Q.: Characteristics of damage to buildings
by debris flows on 7 August 2010 in Zhouqu, Western China, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 12, 2209–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2209-2012, 2012.
Hufschmidt, G., Crozier, M., and Glade, T.: Evolution of natural risk:
research framework and perspectives, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5,
375–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-375-2005, 2005.
Hyndman, D. W. and Hyndman, D. W.: Natural hazards and disasters, Yolanda
Cossio, Belmont, USA, 4 edn., 2008.
IWR: Flood Risk Management Approaches. As being practiced in Japan, the
Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC, USA, 2011.
Jakob, M.: Debris-flow hazard analysis, in: Debris-flow hazards and related
phenomena, edited by: Jakob, M. and Hungr, O., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, chap. 17, 411–443, 2005.
Jakob, M., Porter, M., Savigny, K. W., and Yaremko, E.: A geomorphic approach
to the design of pipeline crossings of mountain streams, Proceedings of IPC
2004: International Pipeline Conference, 4–8 October 2004,
Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 1–8, 2004.
Jakob, M., Stein, D., and Ulmi, M.: Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow
impact, Nat. Hazards, 60, 241–261, 2012.
Jakob, M., Holm, K., Weatherly, H., Liu, S., and Ripley, N.: Debris flood risk
assessment for Mosquito Creek, British Columbia, Canada, Natural Hazards,
65, 1653–1681, http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-012-0436-6, 2013.
Jha, A., Bloch, R., and Lamond, J.: Cities and Flooding A guide to Integrated
Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century, The World Bank
Location: Washington, DC, USA, 2012.
JICA: Study on monitoring and early warning systems for landslide and floods
in Bogotá and Soacha, Tech. rep., Japanese Internation Cooperation
Agency – JICA, Bogotá, Colombia, 2006.
Jolliffe, I. T.: Principal Component Analysis, Springer Series in Statistics,
Springer-Verlag, New York, USA, 2002.
Jonkman, S., Bočkarjova, M., Kok, M., and Bernardini, P.: Integrated
hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands,
Ecol. Econ., 66, 77–90, 2008.
Kaiser, H.: The varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis,
Psychometrika, 23, 187–200, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02289233,1958.
Kaiser, H.: The application of electronic computers to factor analysis.,
Educ. Psychol. Meas., 20, 141–151, https://doi.org/10.1177/001316446002000116, 1960.
Kappes, M., Papathoma-Köhle, M., and Keiler, M.: Assessing physical
vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology,
Appl. Geogr., 32, 577–590, http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0143622811001378, 2012.
Kiers, H.: SIMPLIMAX: Oblique rotation to an optimal target with simple
structure, Psychometrika, 59, 567–579, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02294392, 1994.
Koks, E., Jongman, B., Husby, T., and Botzen, W.: Combining hazard, exposure
and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management,
Environ. Sci. Pol., 47, 42–52, http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901114002056, 2015.
Larsen, M., Wieczorek, G., Eaton, L., and Torres-Sierra, H.: Natural Hazards
on Aluvial Fans: The Debris Flow and Flash flood disaster of December 1999,
Vargas State, Venezuela, in: Proceedings of the Sixth Caribbean Islands
Water Resources Congress, edited by: Sylva, W., Mayagüez, Puerto Rico, 00965, 1–7, 2001.
Lavigne, F. and Suwa, H.: Contrasts between debris flows, hyperconcentrated
flows and stream flows at a channel of Mount Semeru, East Java, Indonesia,
Geomorphology, 61, 41–58, 2004.
Liu, D. L. and Li, Y.: Social vulnerability of rural households to flood
hazards in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 6727–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6727-2015,
2015.
Liu, X. and Lei, J.: A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an
application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China), Geomorphology, 52,
181–191, http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X02002428, 2003.
Liu, Y., Zhou, J., Song, L., Zou, Q., Guo, J., and Wang, Y.: Efficient
GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application
in central China, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 331–346,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-331-2014, 2014.
Lo, W.-C., Tsao, T.-C., and Hsu, C.-H.: Building vulnerability to debris flows
in Taiwan: a preliminary study, Nat. Hazards, 64, 2107–2128, http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s11069-012-0124-6,
2012.
Luino, F., Cirio, C. G., Biddoccu, M., Agangi, A., Giulietto, W., Godone, F.,
and Nigrelli, G.: Application of a model to the evaluation of flood damage,
Geoinformatica, 13, 339–353, 2009.
Luino, F., Turconi, L., Petrea, C., and Nigrelli, G.: Uncorrected land-use
planning highlighted by flooding: the Alba case study (Piedmont, Italy), Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2329–2346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2329-2012,
2012.
Luna, B., Blahut, J., Kappes, M., Akbas, S. O., Malet, J. P., Remaître,
A., and Jaboyedoff, M.: Methods for Debris Flow Hazard and Risk Assessment,
in: Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance, pp.
133–177, http://www.springer.com/us/book/9789400767683, 2014.
Mazzorana, B., Levaggi, L., Keiler, M., and Fuchs, S.: Towards dynamics in
flood risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3571–3587,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3571-2012, 2012.
Molinari, D., Molini, S., and Ballio, F.: Flood Early Warning Systems:
Knowledge and Tools for Their Critical Assessment, WIT Press, Southampton,
UK, 2013.
Müller, A., Reiter, J., and Weiland, U.: Assessment of urban vulnerability
towards floods using an indicator-based approach – a case study for Santiago
de Chile, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2107–2123,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2107-2011, 2011.
Nardi, F., Vivoni, E. R., and Grimaldi, S.: Investigating a floodplain scaling
relation using a hydrogeomorphic delineation method, Water Resour.
Res., 42, 1–15, 2006.
Nardo, M., Saisana, M., Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Hoffman, A., and
Giovannini, E.: Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators, OECD
publishing, Ispra, Italy, 2008.
Neuhaus, J. O.: The Quartimax Method: An Analytic Approach to Orthogonal
Simple Structure, Brit. J. Statist. Psych., 7, 81–91, 1954.
Nkwunonwo, U., Whitworth, M., and Baily, B.: Relevance of Social Vulnerability
Assessment to Flood Risk Reduction in the Lagos Metropolis of Nigeria,
British Journal of Applied Science & Technology, 8, 366–382, http://www.sciencedomain.org/abstract.php?iid=1072&id=5&aid=8949, 2015.
Osorio, J. A.: El río Tunjuelo en la historia de Bogotá, 1900–1990,
Alcaldia Mayor de Bogotá, Bogotá, Colombia, 2007.
Pacific Disaster Center: Bogotá, Colombia Disaster Risk Management
Profile, 3CD City Profiles Series, Bogotá, Colombia, 2006.
Papathoma-Köhle, M., Kappes, M., Keiler, M., and Glade, T.: Physical
vulnerability assessment for alpine hazards: state of the art and future
needs, Nat. hazards, 58, 645–680, http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-010-9632-4, 2011.
Papathoma-Köhle, M., Keiler, M., Totschnig, R., and Glade, T.:
Improvement of vulnerability curves using data from extreme events: debris
flow event in South Tyrol, Natural Hazards, 64, 2083–2105, http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-012-0105-9, 2012.
Quan Luna, B., Blahut, J., van Westen, C. J., Sterlacchini, S., van Asch, T.
W. J., and Akbas, S. O.: The application of numerical debris flow modelling
for the generation of physical vulnerability curves, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 11, 2047–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2047-2011, 2011.
Rogelis, M. C. and Werner, M.: Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis
in mountainous peri-urban areas through morphometric and land cover
indicators, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3043–3064,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3043-2014, 2014.
Ruiz-Pérez, M. and Gelabert Grimalt, M.: Análisis De La
Vulnerabilidad Social Frente a Desastres Naturales: El Caso De La Isla De
Mallorca, GeoSig, 4, 1–26, 2012.
Rygel, L., O'sullivan, D., and Yarnal, B.: A method for constructing a social
vulnerability index: an application to hurricane storm surges in a developed
country, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 11, 741–764, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-006-0265-6 , 2006.
Safaripour, M., Monavari, M., and Zare, M.: Flood risk assessment using GIS
(case study: Golestan province, Iran), Pol. J. Environ.
Stud., 21, 1817–1824, 2012.
Santo, A., Santangelo, N., Di Crescenzo, G., Scorpio, V., De Falco, M., and
Chirico, G. B.: Flash flood occurrence and magnitude assessment in an
alluvial fan context: the October 2011 event in the Southern Apennines,
Nat. Hazards, http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-015-1728-4, 2015.
Schanze, J., Zeman, E., and Marsalek, J.: Flood risk management: hazards,
vulnerability and mitigation measures, Springer, Dordrecht, the
Netherlands, 2006.
Schmidtlein, M. C., Deutsch, R., Piegorsch, W. W., and Cutter, S. L.: Building
indexes of Vulnerability : a sensitivity analysis of the Social Vulnerability
Index, Risk Anal., 28, 1099–1114, 2008.
Seethapathi, P., Dutta, D., and Kumar, R.: Hydrology of small watersheds, The
Energy and Resources Institute, New Deli, India, 2008.
Seifert, I., Thieken, A. H., Merz, M., Borst, D., and Werner, U.: Estimation
of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment,
Nat. Hazards, 52, 453–479, 2009.
Sterlacchini, S., Akbas, S. O., Blahut, J., Mavrouli, O.-C., Garcia, C., Luna,
B. Q., and Corominas Dulcet, J.: Methods for the characterization of the
vulnerability of elements at risk, in: Mountain risks: from prediction to
management and governance, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 33–273, http://hdl.handle.net/2117/20764, 2014.
Su, M. and Kang, J.: A grid-based GIS approach to regional flood damage
assessment, J. Mar. Sci. Technol., 13, 184–192, 2005.
Thieken, A., Merz, B., Kreibich, H., and Apel, H.: Methods for flood risk
assessment: Concepts and challenges, International Workshop
on Flash Floods in Urban Areas Muscat, 4–6 September 2006,
Oman, 1–12 2006.
Totschnig, R. and Fuchs, S.: Mountain torrents: Quantifying vulnerability and
assessing uncertainties, Eng. Geol., 155, 31–44,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.12.019, 2013.
Totschnig, R., Sedlacek, W., and Fuchs, S.: A quantitative vulnerability
function for fluvial sediment transport, Nat. Hazards, 58, 681–703,
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-010-9623-5,
2011.
Tsao, T.-C., Hsu, W.-K., Cheng, C.-T., Lo, W.-C., and Chen, C.-Y.: A
preliminary study of debris flow risk estimation and management in Taiwan,
International symposium interpraevent in the Pacific Rim, 26–30 April 2010, Taipei, 930–939, 2010.
UNEP: Assessing Human Vulnerability to Environmental Change: Concepts, Issues,
Methods and Case Studies, Nairobi, Kenya, 57 pp., 2003.
UNISDR: Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction
initiatives, vol. 1, 2004.
UNISDR: Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, Tech. rep., United Nations
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, 2009.
United Nations General Assembly: Resolution adopted by the General Assembly
on 3 June 2015, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030,
08955, 1–24, http://www.preventionweb.net/files/resolutions/N1516716.pdf,
2015.
van Westen, C., Kappes, M., Luna, B., Frigerio, S., Glade, T., and Malet,
J.-P.: Medium-Scale Multi-hazard Risk Assessment of Gravitational
Processes, in: Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance
SE – 7, 34, 201–231, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6769-0_7, 2014.
Varnes, D. J.: Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and
practice, Tech. rep., Commission on landslides of the IAEG, UNESCO, 1984.
Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., and Cannon, T.: At Risk: natural hazards, people's
vulnerability and disasters, Routledge, second edn., 2003.
Short summary
A method to identify mountainous watersheds with the highest flood risk at the regional level is proposed and applied in Bogotá (Colombia). Vulnerability at the regional level was assessed and combined with an existing flood susceptibility indicator, thus providing an index that allows the watersheds to be prioritised. Results show that vulnerability can be expressed in terms of four constituent indicators and a sensitivity analysis shows that the classification of vulnerability is robust.
A method to identify mountainous watersheds with the highest flood risk at the regional level is...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint