Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

Research article 13 May 2016

Research article | 13 May 2016

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

Alicia García et al.

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Cited articles

Alamilla, J. L., Vai, R., and Esteva, L.: Completeness assessment of earthquake catalogues under uncertain knowledge, J. Seismol., 19, 27–40, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-014-9448-x, 2015.
Amorese, D., Grasso, J.-R., and Rydelek, P. A.: On varying b-values with depth: results from computer-intensive tests for Southern California, Geophys. J. Int., 180, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04414.x, 2010.
Ancochea, E., Hernán, F., Cendrero, A., Cantagrel, J. M., Fúster, J. M., Ibarrola, E., and Coello, J.: Constructive and destructive episodes in the building of a young Oceanic Island, La Palma, Canary Islands, and genesis of the Caldera de Taburiente, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 60, 243–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(94)90054-X, 1994.
Bell, A. F. and Kilburn, C. R.: Precursors to dyke-fed eruptions at basaltic volcanoes: insights from patterns of volcano-tectonic seismicity at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, B. Volcanol., 74, 325–339, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0519-3, 2012.
Bender, B.: Maximum likelihood estimation of b values for magnitude grouped data, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 73, 831–851, 1983.
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Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
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