Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

Research article 13 May 2016

Research article | 13 May 2016

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

Alicia García et al.

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Short summary
Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
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