Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

Research article

|

13 May 2016

Research article |

| 13 May 2016

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz

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Jul 2017	14	13	2	29
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Jan 2019	8	12	0	20
Feb 2019	9	12	0	21
Mar 2019	6	17	1	24
Apr 2019	5	8	0	13
May 2019	4	15	0	19
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Oct 2019	5	6	0	11
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Oct 2020	7	16	1	24
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Dec 2020	8	11	1	20
Jan 2021	18	17	0	35
Feb 2021	6	6	1	13
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Apr 2024	22	4	5	31
May 2024	19	5	3	27
Jun 2024	39	11	2	52
Jul 2024	30	16	8	54
Aug 2024	19	7	3	29
Sep 2024	9	9	3	21
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Nov 2024	5	6	1	12
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 18 Jan 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2016	93	29	0	122
Feb 2016	44	23	2	69
Mar 2016	33	5	0	38
Apr 2016	7	6	0	13
May 2016	96	31	0	127
Jun 2016	22	4	1	27
Jul 2016	18	5	1	24
Aug 2016	6	2	1	9
Sep 2016	6	7	0	13
Oct 2016	4	2	0	6
Nov 2016	5	2	1	8
Dec 2016	6	3	0	9
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Feb 2017	4	3	0	7
Mar 2017	19	9	0	28
Apr 2017	15	7	0	22
May 2017	23	11	2	36
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Jul 2017	14	13	2	29
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Nov 2017	8	11	0	19
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Feb 2018	28	3	5	36
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Apr 2018	7	2	1	10
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Jun 2018	12	6	0	18
Jul 2018	9	11	0	20
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Apr 2024	22	4	5	31
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Nov 2024	5	6	1	12
Dec 2024	2	6	0	8

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Short summary

Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

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