Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

Research article

|

13 May 2016

Research article |

| 13 May 2016

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz

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May 2016	96	31	0	127
Jun 2016	22	4	1	27
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Mar 2023	12	13	2	27
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Apr 2024	22	4	5	31
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Jun 2024	39	11	2	52
Jul 2024	30	16	8	54
Aug 2024	19	7	3	29
Sep 2024	9	9	3	21
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Nov 2024	5	6	1	12
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Jan 2025	13	6	3	22
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Mar 2025	12	5	0	17
Apr 2025	28	13	0	41
May 2025	16	5	2	23
Jun 2025	30	14	1	45
Jul 2025	12	13	2	27
Aug 2025	14	14	0	28
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 18 Jan 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2016	93	29	0	122
Feb 2016	44	23	2	69
Mar 2016	33	5	0	38
Apr 2016	7	6	0	13
May 2016	96	31	0	127
Jun 2016	22	4	1	27
Jul 2016	18	5	1	24
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Mar 2017	19	9	0	28
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May 2017	23	11	2	36
Jun 2017	14	3	0	17
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Apr 2024	22	4	5	31
May 2024	19	5	3	27
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Jul 2024	30	16	8	54
Aug 2024	19	7	3	29
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Oct 2024	11	8	2	21
Nov 2024	5	6	1	12
Dec 2024	5	11	0	16
Jan 2025	13	6	3	22
Feb 2025	13	9	2	24
Mar 2025	12	5	0	17
Apr 2025	28	13	0	41
May 2025	16	5	2	23
Jun 2025	30	14	1	45
Jul 2025	12	13	2	27
Aug 2025	14	14	0	28
Sep 2025	38	21	0	59
Oct 2025	8	21	3	32
Nov 2025	7	18	2	27

Latest update: 17 Nov 2025

Short summary

Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).