Articles | Volume 13, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2521-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2521-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Oct 2013
Research article |
| 14 Oct 2013
Seismicity at the northeast edge of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB) and activation of an undocumented fault: the Peñamiller earthquake sequence of 2010–2011, Querétaro, Mexico
A. Clemente-Chavez
División de Investigación y Posgrado, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Centro Universitario, Cerro de las Campanas s/n, Querétaro, Querétaro, C.P. 76010, Mexico
A. Figueroa-Soto
Centro de Geociencias (CGEO), Juriquilla, UNAM, P.O. Box 1-742, Querétaro, Querétaro, C.P. 76001, Mexico
F. R. Zúñiga
Centro de Geociencias (CGEO), Juriquilla, UNAM, P.O. Box 1-742, Querétaro, Querétaro, C.P. 76001, Mexico
M. Arroyo
División de Investigación y Posgrado, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Centro Universitario, Cerro de las Campanas s/n, Querétaro, Querétaro, C.P. 76010, Mexico
M. Montiel
División de Investigación y Posgrado, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Centro Universitario, Cerro de las Campanas s/n, Querétaro, Querétaro, C.P. 76010, Mexico
O. Chavez
División de Investigación y Posgrado, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Centro Universitario, Cerro de las Campanas s/n, Querétaro, Querétaro, C.P. 76010, Mexico
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A. Clemente-Chavez, F. R. Zúñiga, J. Lermo, A. Figueroa-Soto, C. Valdés, M. Montiel, O. Chavez, and M. Arroyo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1391–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1391-2014, 2014
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Solid Earth, 15, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-229-2024, 2024
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The behavior of seismic energy parameters and their possible dependence on the type of fault for globally detected earthquakes were studied. For this purpose, different energy estimation methods were used. Equations were obtained to convert energies obtained in different ways. The dependence of the seismic energy on the focal mechanism was confirmed up to depths close to 180 km. The results will help to explain the seismic rupture of earthquakes generated at greater depth.
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4781–4801, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4781-2023, 2023
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We present a comprehensive catalog of focal mechanisms for earthquakes in Mexico and neighboring areas spanning February 1928 to July 2022. The catalog comprises a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and depths and includes data from diverse geological environments. We collected and revised focal mechanism data from various sources and methods. The catalog is a valuable resource for future studies on earthquake source mechanisms, tectonics, and seismic hazard in the region.
Raphael S. M. De Plaen, Víctor Hugo Márquez-Ramírez, Xyoli Pérez-Campos, F. Ramón Zuñiga, Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez, Juan Martín Gómez González, and Lucia Capra
Solid Earth, 12, 713–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-713-2021, 2021
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COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in countries with a dominant informal economy have been a greater challenge than in other places. This motivated the monitoring of the mobility of populations with seismic noise throughout the various phases of lockdown and in the city of Querétaro (central Mexico). Our results emphasize the benefit of densifying urban seismic networks, even with low-cost instruments, to observe variations in mobility at the city scale over exclusively relying on mobile technology.
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, F. Ramón Zúñiga, Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez, Otilio Rojas, Armando Aguilar-Meléndez, and Josep de la Puente
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6361–6381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6361-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6361-2020, 2020
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The Mexican subduction zone along the Pacific coast is one of the most active seismic zones in the world, where every year larger-magnitude earthquakes shake huge inland cities such as Mexico City. In this work, we use TREMOL (sThochastic Rupture Earthquake ModeL) to simulate the seismicity observed in this zone. Our numerical results reinforce the hypothesis that in some subduction regions single asperities are responsible for producing the observed seismicity.
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez, Víctor Hugo Márquez-Ramírez, and Francisco Ramón Zúñiga
Solid Earth, 11, 791–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-791-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-791-2020, 2020
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We analyzed reported oceanic earthquakes in Mexico. We used data from different agencies. By analyzing the occurrence of earthquakes, we can extract relevant information such as the level of seismic activity, the size of the earthquakes, hypocenter depths, etc. We also studied the focal mechanisms to classify the different types of earthquakes and calculated the stress in the region. The results will be useful to understand the physics of oceanic earthquakes.
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, F. Ramón Zúñiga, José Carlos Carrasco-Jiménez, Víctor Márquez-Ramírez, and Josep de la Puente
Solid Earth, 10, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1519-2019, 2019
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Earthquake aftershocks display spatiotemporal correlations arising from their self-organized critical behavior. Stochastical models such as the fiber bundle (FBM) permit the use of an analog of the physical model that produces a statistical behavior with many similarities to real series. In this work, a new model based on FBM that includes geometrical faults systems is proposed. Our analysis focuses on aftershock statistics, and as a study case we modeled the Northridge sequence.
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Quetzalcóatl Rodríguez-Pérez, Ramón Zúñiga, Doreen Scholz, Armando Aguilar-Meléndez, and Josep de la Puente
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1809–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1809-2019, 2019
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Earthquakes are the result of brittle failure within the heterogeneous crust of the Earth. In this article, we present a computer code called the stochasTic Rupture Earthquake MOdeL, TREMOL v0.1, developed to investigate the rupture process of asperities on the earthquake rupture surface. According to our results, TREMOL is able to simulate the magnitudes of real earthquakes, showing that it can be a powerful tool to deliver promising new insights into earthquake rupture processes.
A. Clemente-Chavez, F. R. Zúñiga, J. Lermo, A. Figueroa-Soto, C. Valdés, M. Montiel, O. Chavez, and M. Arroyo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1391–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1391-2014, 2014
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
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Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
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The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
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Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
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Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
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This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
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Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1761, 2023
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Atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before earthquake, which is very essential to study the coupling process between coversphere and atmosphere aroused by earthquake. This study discovers the AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022, and clarify the relations between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frederick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinovic, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinovic, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1863, 2023
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We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland for advancing earthquake risk mitigation. It includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Early Warning, and adopts a user-centred approach. Standardisation is crucial for widespread adoption and recognition, and the harmonisation of products into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
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Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-127, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1370, 2023
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Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
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Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
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The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
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In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
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This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
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The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
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Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
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We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
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In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
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Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
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In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
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We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
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Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
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Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
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One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
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Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
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The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
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We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Mohamadreza Hosseini and Habib Rahimi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3571–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, 2022
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Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damage requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
Maria Francesca Ferrario
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3527–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, 2022
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I mapped over 5000 landslides triggered by a moment magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred in 2015 in the Sabah region (Malaysia). I analyzed their number, dimension and spatial distribution by dividing the territory into 1 km2 cells. I applied the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which allows the categorization of earthquake damage due to environmental effects. The presented approach promotes the collaboration among the experts in landslide mapping and in ESI-07 assignment.
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, 2022
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We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
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As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, 2022
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Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
Xuezhong Chen, Yane Li, and Lijuan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2543–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, 2022
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When the tectonic stress in the crust increases, the b value will decrease, meaning the effects of tidal stresses are enhanced gradually. Increase in the tidal Coulomb failure stress might promote the occurrence of earthquakes, whereas its decrease could have an opposite effect. This observation may provide an insight into the processes leading to the Wenchuan earthquake and its precursors.
Fabrizio Marra, Alberto Frepoli, Dario Gioia, Marcello Schiattarella, Andrea Tertulliani, Monica Bini, Gaetano De Luca, and Marco Luppichini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2445–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, 2022
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Through the analysis of the morphostructural setting in which the seismicity of Rome is framed, we explain why the city should not expect to suffer damage from a big earthquake.
Chengjun Feng, Guangliang Gao, Shihuai Zhang, Dongsheng Sun, Siyu Zhu, Chengxuan Tan, and Xiaodong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2257–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, 2022
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We show how FSP (Fault Slip Potential) software can be used in quantitative screening to estimate the fault slip potential in a region with some uncertainties in the ambient stress field and to assess the reactivation potential on these faults of presumably higher criticality in response to fluid injection. The case study of the Matouying enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field has important implications for deep geothermal exploitation in China, especially for the Gonghe EGS in Qinghai Province.
Patrick Oswald, Michael Strasser, Jens Skapski, and Jasper Moernaut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, 2022
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This study provides the first regional earthquake catalogue of the eastern Alps spanning 16 000 years by using three lake paleoseismic records. Recurrence statistics reveal that earthquakes recur every 1000–2000 years in an aperiodic pattern. The magnitudes of paleo-earthquakes exceed the historically documented values. This study estimates magnitude and source areas for severe paleo-earthquakes, and their shaking effects are explored in the broader study area.
Haoyu Wen, Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Massimo Pica Ciamarra, and Siew Ann Cheong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1931–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, 2022
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Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep underground to forecast earthquakes. We go one step further by using the electric fields, which can be directly measured, to separate/classify time periods with two labels only according to the statistical properties of the electric fields. By checking against historical earthquake records, we found time periods covered by one of the two labels to have significantly more frequent earthquakes.
Karma Tempa, Komal Raj Aryal, Nimesh Chettri, Giovanni Forte, and Dipendra Gautam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1893–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, 2022
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This paper performs site response analysis and studies soil amplification for Bhutan Himalaya. A sensitivity study is performed to assess the effect of variation in strong ground motion.
Tayeb Smail, Mohamed Abed, Ahmed Mebarki, and Milan Lazecky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1609–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, 2022
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The Sentinel-1 SAR datasets and Sentinel-2 data are used in this study to investigate the impact of natural hazards (earthquakes and landslides) on struck areas. In InSAR processing, the use of DInSAR, CCD methods, and the LiCSBAS tool permit generation of time-series analysis of ground changes. Three land failures were detected in the study area. CCD is suitable to map landslides that may remain undetected using DInSAR. In Grarem, the failure rim is clear in coherence and phase maps.
Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1451–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, 2022
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Due to an insufficient number of recorded moderate–strong earthquakes in Israel, estimating the ground motions and the subsequent seismic hazard mitigation becomes a challenge. To fill this gap, we performed a series of 3-D numerical simulations of moderate and moderate–strong earthquakes. We examined the ground motions and their variability through a self-developed statistical model. However, the model cannot fully capture the ground motion variability due to the local seismotectonic setting.
Federico Mori, Amerigo Mendicelli, Gaetano Falcone, Gianluca Acunzo, Rose Line Spacagna, Giuseppe Naso, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 947–966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, 2022
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This work addresses the problem of the ground motion estimation over large areas as an important tool for seismic-risk reduction policies. In detail, the near-real-time estimation of ground motion is a key issue for emergency system management. Starting from this consideration, the present work proposes the application of a machine learning approach to produce ground motion maps, using nine input proxies. Such proxies consider seismological, geophysical, and morphological parameters.
Margarida Ramalho, Luis Matias, Marta Neres, Michele M. C. Carafa, Alexandra Carvalho, and Paula Teves-Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, 2022
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is the most common tool used to decide on the acceptable seismic risk by society and mitigation measures. In slowly deforming regions, such Iberia, the earthquake generation models (EGMs) for PSHA suffer from great uncertainty. In this work we propose two sanity tests to be applied to EGMs, comparing the EGM moment release with constrains derived from GNSS observations or neotectonic modelling. Similar tests should be part of other region studies.
Janneke van Ginkel, Elmer Ruigrok, Jan Stafleu, and Rien Herber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, 2022
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A soft, shallow subsurface composition has the tendency to amplify earthquake waves, resulting in increased ground shaking. Therefore, this paper presents a workflow in order to obtain a map classifying the response of the subsurface based on local geology, earthquake signals, and background noise recordings for the Netherlands. The resulting map can be used as a first assessment in regions with earthquake hazard potential by mining or geothermal energy activities, for example.
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