Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Mar 2024
Research article |
| 21 Mar 2024
| 21 Mar 2024
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Sophie Barthelemy
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Department R&D Modeling Cat & Agriculture, Paris, France
Bertrand Bonan
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Jean-Christophe Calvet
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Gilles Grandjean
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
David Moncoulon
Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Department R&D Modeling Cat & Agriculture, Paris, France
deceased, 18 July 2023
Dorothée Kapsambelis
Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Department R&D Modeling Cat & Agriculture, Paris, France
Séverine Bernardie
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Related authors
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Gilles Grandjean, Séverine Bernardie, Jean-Philippe Naulin, Patrick Le Moigne, Aaron Boone, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2321–2337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to monitoring clay shrinkage damage to buildings. A comparison with the number of insurance claims for subsidence shows that the presence of trees near individual houses must be taken into account. Significant soil moisture droughts occurred in France in 2003, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Particularly high index values are observed in 2022. It is found that droughts will become more severe in the future.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Gilles Grandjean, Séverine Bernardie, Jean-Philippe Naulin, Patrick Le Moigne, Aaron Boone, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2321–2337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to monitoring clay shrinkage damage to buildings. A comparison with the number of insurance claims for subsidence shows that the presence of trees near individual houses must be taken into account. Significant soil moisture droughts occurred in France in 2003, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Particularly high index values are observed in 2022. It is found that droughts will become more severe in the future.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long term experimental data.
En Liu, Yonghua Zhu, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Haishen Lü, Bertrand Bonan, Jingyao Zheng, Qiqi Gou, Xiaoyi Wang, Zhenzhou Ding, Haiting Xu, Ying Pan, and Tingxing Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2375–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Overestimated root zone soil moisture (RZSM) based on land surface models (LSMs) is attributed to overestimated precipitation and an underestimated ratio of transpiration to total evapotranspiration and performs better in the wet season. Underestimated SMOS L3 surface SM triggers the underestimated SMOS L4 RZSM, which performs better in the dry season due to the attenuated radiation in the wet season. LSMs should reduce and increase the frequency of wet and dry soil moisture, respectively.
En Liu, Yonghua Zhu, Jean-christophe Calvet, Haishen Lü, Bertrand Bonan, Jingyao Zheng, Qiqi Gou, Xiaoyi Wang, Zhenzhou Ding, Haiting Xu, Ying Pan, and Tingxing Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-33, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Among the 8 considered products, GLDAS_CLSM product performs best. All RZSM products overestimate the in situ measurements which attributes to a wet bias of air temperature, precipitation amount and frequency except the underestimation of SMOS L4 RZSM related to the underestimation of SMOS L3 SSM. The higher R between SMPA L4 and MERRA-2 was attributed to they both use CLSM and meteorological forcing from GEOS-5 where precipitation was corrected with CPCU precipitation product.
Arsène Druel, Simon Munier, Anthony Mucia, Clément Albergel, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Crop phenology and irrigation is implemented into a land surface model able to work at a global scale. A case study is presented over Nebraska (USA). Simulations with and without the new scheme are compared to different satellite-based observations. The model is able to produce a realistic yearly irrigation water amount. The irrigation scheme improves the simulated leaf area index, gross primary productivity, evapotransipiration, and land surface temperature.
Anthony Mucia, Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Biogeosciences, 19, 2557–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, microwave vegetation optical depth data are assimilated in a land surface model in order to analyze leaf area index and root zone soil moisture. The advantage of microwave products is the higher observation frequency. A large variety of independent datasets are used to verify the added value of the assimilation. It is shown that the assimilation is able to improve the representation of soil moisture, vegetation conditions, and terrestrial water and carbon fluxes.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
Judith Eeckman, Hélène Roux, Audrey Douinot, Bertrand Bonan, and Clément Albergel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of flash flood is of growing importance for populations, particularly in the Mediterranean area in the context of a changing climate. The representation of soil processes in models is a key factor for flash flood simulation. The importance of the various methods for soil moisture estimation are highlighted in this work. Local measurements from the field as well as data derived from satellite imagery can be used to assess the performance of model outputs.
Séverine Bernardie, Rosalie Vandromme, Yannick Thiery, Thomas Houet, Marine Grémont, Florian Masson, Gilles Grandjean, and Isabelle Bouroullec
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 147–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-147-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on landslide hazards in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100.
The results demonstrate the influence of land cover on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. Climate change may have a significant impact because of the increase of the soil water content. The results indicate that the occurrence of landslide hazards in the future is expected to increase.
Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Bertrand Bonan, Emanuel Dutra, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Simon Munier, Clara Draper, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Gianpaolo Balsamo, David Fairbairn, Catherine Meurey, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4291-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
LDAS-Monde is a global offline land data assimilation system (LDAS) that jointly assimilates satellite-derived observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde is able to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extreme weather on land surface states.
Yongjun Zheng, Clément Albergel, Simon Munier, Bertrand Bonan, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3607–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3607-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a sophisticated dynamically running job scheme as well as an innovative parallel IO algorithm to reduce the time to solution of an offline framework for high-dimensional ensemble Kalman filters. The offline and online modes of ensemble Kalman filters are built to comprehensively assess their time to solution efficiencies. The offline mode is substantially faster than the online mode in terms of time to solution, especially for large-scale assimilation problems.
Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Alina Lavinia Barbu, David Fairbairn, Simon Munier, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 325–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter, for jointly assimilating observations of the surface soil moisture and leaf area index in the Land Data Assimilation System LDAS-Monde. LDAS-Monde constrains the Interaction between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model to improve the reanalysis of land surface variables. EnSRF is compared with the simplified extended Kalman filter over the European Mediterranean region.
Sibo Zhang, Catherine Meurey, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5005–5020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5005-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5005-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In situ rain temperature measurements are rare. Soil moisture and soil temperature observations in southern France are used to assess the cooling effects on soils of rainfall events. The rainwater temperature is estimated using observed changes of topsoil volumetric soil moisture and soil temperature in response to the rainfall event. The obtained rain temperature estimates are generally lower than the ambient air temperatures, wet-bulb temperatures, and topsoil temperatures.
Clement Albergel, Emanuel Dutra, Simon Munier, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Joaquin Munoz-Sabater, Patricia de Rosnay, and Gianpaolo Balsamo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3515–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
ECMWF recently released the first 7-year segment of its latest atmospheric reanalysis: ERA-5 (2010–2016). ERA-5 has important changes relative to ERA-Interim including higher spatial and temporal resolutions as well as a more recent model and data assimilation system. ERA-5 is foreseen to replace ERA-Interim reanalysis. One of the main goals of this study is to assess whether ERA-5 can enhance the simulation performances with respect to ERA-Interim when it is used to force a land surface model.
Emiliano Gelati, Bertrand Decharme, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Marie Minvielle, Jan Polcher, David Fairbairn, and Graham P. Weedon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2091–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compared land surface model simulations forced by several meteorological datasets with observations over the Euro-Mediterranean area, for the 1979–2012 period. Precipitation was the most uncertain forcing variable. The impacts of forcing uncertainty were larger on the mean and standard deviation rather than the timing, shape and inter-annual variability of simulated discharge. Simulated leaf area index and surface soil moisture were relatively insensitive to these uncertainties.
Sibo Zhang, Jean-Christophe Calvet, José Darrozes, Nicolas Roussel, Frédéric Frappart, and Gilles Bouhours
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1931–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1931-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1931-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Surface soil moisture was retrieved from a grassland site in southwestern France using the GNSS-IR technique. In order to efficiently limit the impact of perturbing vegetation effects, the grass growth period and the senescence period are treated separately. While the vegetation biomass effect can be corrected for, the litter water interception influences the observations and cannot be easily accounted for.
Guillaume Le Bihan, Olivier Payrastre, Eric Gaume, David Moncoulon, and Frédéric Pons
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5911–5928, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5911-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper illustrates how an integrated flash flood monitoring (or forecasting) system may be designed to directly provide information on possibly flooded areas and associated impacts on a very detailed river network and over large territories. The approach is extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in south-eastern France. Validation results are presented in terms of accuracy of the estimated flood extents and related impacts (based on insurance claim data).
Clément Albergel, Simon Munier, Delphine Jennifer Leroux, Hélène Dewaele, David Fairbairn, Alina Lavinia Barbu, Emiliano Gelati, Wouter Dorigo, Stéphanie Faroux, Catherine Meurey, Patrick Le Moigne, Bertrand Decharme, Jean-Francois Mahfouf, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3889–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3889-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
LDAS-Monde, a global land data assimilation system, is applied over Europe and the Mediterranean basin to increase monitoring accuracy for land surface variables. It is able to ingest information from satellite-derived surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) observations to constrain the ISBA land surface model coupled with the CTRIP continental hydrological system. Assimilation of SSM and LAI leads to a better representation of evapotranspiration and gross primary production.
Hélène Dewaele, Simon Munier, Clément Albergel, Carole Planque, Nabil Laanaia, Dominique Carrer, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4861–4878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC) is a key parameter in land surface models. Being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually unavailable. A 15-year time series of satellite-derived observations of leaf area index (LAI) is used to retrieve MaxAWC for rainfed straw cereals over France. Disaggregated LAI is sequentially assimilated into the ISBA LSM. MaxAWC is estimated minimising LAI analyses increments. Annual maximum LAI observations correlate with the MaxAWC estimates.
Sibo Zhang, Nicolas Roussel, Karen Boniface, Minh Cuong Ha, Frédéric Frappart, José Darrozes, Frédéric Baup, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4767–4784, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4767-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4767-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
GNSS SNR data were obtained from an intensively cultivated wheat field in southwestern France. The data were used to retrieve soil moisture and vegetation characteristics during the growing period of wheat. Vegetation growth broke up the constant height assumption used in soil moisture retrieval algorithms. Soil moisture could not be retrieved after wheat tillering. A new algorithm based on a wavelet analysis was implemented and used to retrieve vegetation height.
Bertrand Bonan, Nancy K. Nichols, Michael J. Baines, and Dale Partridge
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 515–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-515-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-515-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We develop data assimilation techniques for numerical models using moving mesh methods. Moving meshes are valuable for explicitly tracking interfaces and boundaries in evolving systems. The application of the techniques is demonstrated on a one-dimensional
model of an ice sheet. It is shown, using various types of observations, that
the techniques predict the evolution of the edges of the ice sheet and its height accurately and efficiently.
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
David Fairbairn, Alina Lavinia Barbu, Adrien Napoly, Clément Albergel, Jean-François Mahfouf, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2015–2033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2015-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2015-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the impact on river discharge simulations over France of assimilating ASCAT-derived surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) observations into the ISBA land surface model. Wintertime LAI has a notable impact on river discharge. SSM assimilation degrades river discharge simulations. This is caused by limitations in the simplified versions of the Kalman filter and ISBA model used in this study. Implementing an observation operator for ASCAT is needed.
Jean-Christophe Calvet, Noureddine Fritz, Christine Berne, Bruno Piguet, William Maurel, and Catherine Meurey
SOIL, 2, 615–629, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2-615-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2-615-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Soil thermal conductivity in wet conditions can be retrieved together with the soil quartz content using a reverse modelling technique based on sub-hourly soil temperature observations at three depths below the soil surface.
A pedotransfer function is proposed for quartz, for the considered region in France.
Gravels have a major impact on soil thermal conductivity, and omitting the soil organic matter information tends to enhance this impact.
Roland Séférian, Christine Delire, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Aumont, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Hervé Douville, Laurent Franchistéguy, Emilie Joetzjer, and Séphane Sénési
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1423–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first IPCC-class Earth system model developed at Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-ESM1). We detail how the various carbon reservoirs were initialized and analyze the behavior of the carbon cycle and its prominent physical drivers, comparing model results to the most up-to-date climate and carbon cycle dataset over the latest decades.
J. P. Naulin, D. Moncoulon, S. Le Roy, R. Pedreros, D. Idier, and C. Oliveros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 195–207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-195-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. It aims to identify the potential flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the losses related to Xynthia storm surge, which was used for the model's calibration.
B. Bonan, M. J. Baines, N. K. Nichols, and D. Partridge
The Cryosphere, 10, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduce a moving-point approach to model the flow of ice sheets. This particular moving-grid numerical approach is based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly. A finite-difference moving-point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (1-D). The conservation method is also suitable for 2-D scenarios. This paper is a first step towards applications of the conservation method to realistic 2-D cases.
D. Fairbairn, A. L. Barbu, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-C. Calvet, and E. Gelati
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4811–4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4811-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4811-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF) root-zone soil moisture analyses are compared when assimilating in situ surface observations. In the synthetic experiments, the EnKF performs best because it can stochastically capture the errors in the precipitation. The two methods perform similarly in the real experiments. During the summer period, both methods perform poorly as a result of nonlinearities in the land surface model.
S. Garrigues, A. Olioso, D. Carrer, B. Decharme, J.-C. Calvet, E. Martin, S. Moulin, and O. Marloie
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3033-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the impacts of uncertainties in the climate, the vegetation dynamic, the soil properties and the cropland management on the simulation of evapotranspiration from the ISBA-A-gs land surface model over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. It mainly shows that errors in the soil parameters and the lack of irrigation in the simulation have the largest influence on evapotranspiration compared to the uncertainties in the climate and the vegetation dynamic.
S. Garrigues, A. Olioso, J. C. Calvet, E. Martin, S. Lafont, S. Moulin, A. Chanzy, O. Marloie, S. Buis, V. Desfonds, N. Bertrand, and D. Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3109–3131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3109-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. Evapotranspiration mainly results from soil evaporation when it is simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This leads to a high sensitivity to the soil parameters. Errors on soil hydraulic properties can lead to a large bias in cumulative evapotranspiration over a long period of time. Accounting for uncertainties in soil properties is essential for land surface modelling.
E. Garnier, J. Desarthe, and D. Moncoulon
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-1519-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-1519-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Facing climate change and increasing costs of natural disasters, the exposure analysis requires having a long-term knowledge of the impacts of extreme events. The research based on historical archives made it possible to reconstruct, for the first time, the chronology and severity of hurricanes in the French Antilles since the 17th century. The analysis of a historical period highlights the variability of cyclonic activity and the interest of pluridisciplinary scientific perspectives.
N. Canal, J.-C. Calvet, B. Decharme, D. Carrer, S. Lafont, and G. Pigeon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4979–4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4979-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4979-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Regional French agricultural yield statistics are used to benchmark root water uptake representations in the ISBA-A-gs model. Key model parameters governing the inter-annual variability of the simulated biomass are retrieved. A complex multi-layer soil hydrology model does not outperform a simple bulk root-zone reservoir approach. This could be explained by missing processes/information in the model such as hydraulic redistribution and detailed soil properties.
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, R. Fisher, B. Christoffersen, J. C. Calvet, A. C. L. da Costa, L. V. Ferreira, and P. Meir
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2933–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, 2014
D. Moncoulon, D. Labat, J. Ardon, E. Leblois, T. Onfroy, C. Poulard, S. Aji, A. Rémy, and A. Quantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2469–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2469-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2469-2014, 2014
M. Balzarolo, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, F. Maignan, J.-C. Calvet, S. Lafont, A. Barbu, B. Poulter, F. Chevallier, C. Szczypta, and D. Papale
Biogeosciences, 11, 2661–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, 2014
C. Szczypta, J.-C. Calvet, F. Maignan, W. Dorigo, F. Baret, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, 2014
M. Parrens, J.-F. Mahfouf, A. L. Barbu, and J.-C. Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 673–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-673-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-673-2014, 2014
A. L. Barbu, J.-C. Calvet, J.-F. Mahfouf, and S. Lafont
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 173–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-173-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-173-2014, 2014
V. Masson, P. Le Moigne, E. Martin, S. Faroux, A. Alias, R. Alkama, S. Belamari, A. Barbu, A. Boone, F. Bouyssel, P. Brousseau, E. Brun, J.-C. Calvet, D. Carrer, B. Decharme, C. Delire, S. Donier, K. Essaouini, A.-L. Gibelin, H. Giordani, F. Habets, M. Jidane, G. Kerdraon, E. Kourzeneva, M. Lafaysse, S. Lafont, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, A. Lemonsu, J.-F. Mahfouf, P. Marguinaud, M. Mokhtari, S. Morin, G. Pigeon, R. Salgado, Y. Seity, F. Taillefer, G. Tanguy, P. Tulet, B. Vincendon, V. Vionnet, and A. Voldoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013
R. Amri, M. Zribi, Z. Lili-Chabaane, C. Szczypta, J. C. Calvet, and G. Boulet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-8117-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-8117-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Supershear crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release: new insights from numerical simulations and field measurements
The effect of slab touchdown on anticrack arrest in propagation saw tests
Proglacial lake development and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsjökull glacier, southeast Iceland
Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model
Development of operational decision support tools for mechanized ski guiding using avalanche terrain modeling, GPS tracking, and machine learning
Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe
Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors
Seismic Signal Classification of Snow Avalanches using Distributed Acoustic Sensing in Grasdalen, Western Norway
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Forecasting avalanche danger: human-made forecasts vs. fully automated model-driven predictions
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
Review article: Understanding the placement of fire emissions from the Brazilian Cerrado biome in the atmospheric carbon budget
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
Simulation of cold powder avalanches considering daily snowpack and weather situations to enhance road safety
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Grégoire Bobillier, Bertil Trottet, Bastian Bergfeld, Ron Simenhois, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2215–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2215-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2215-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study investigates the initiation of snow slab avalanches. Combining experimental data with numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, cracks form and propagate due to compressive fractures within a weak layer. On steeper slopes, crack velocity can increase dramatically after approximately 5 m due to a fracture mode transition from compression to shear. Understanding these dynamics provides a crucial missing piece in the puzzle of dry-snow slab avalanche formation.
Philipp L. Rosendahl, Johannes Schneider, Grégoire Bobillier, Florian Rheinschmidt, Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, and Philipp Weißgraeber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1975–1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche formation depends on crack propagation in weak snow layers, but the conditions that stop a crack remain unclear. We show that slab touchdown reduces the energy driving crack growth, which can halt propagation even under static conditions. This suggests that crack arrest is influenced not only by snowpack variability or dynamics but also by mechanical interactions within the snowpack. Our findings refine avalanche prediction models and improve hazard assessment.
Greta H. Wells, Þorsteinn Sæmundsson, Finnur Pálsson, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Reginald L. Hermanns, and Snævarr Guðmundsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1913–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1913-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1913-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat elevates the risk of landslides released into proglacial lakes, which can trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study maps proglacial lake evolution and GLOF hazard scenarios at Fjallsjökull glacier, Iceland. Lake volume increased from 1945 to 2021 and is estimated to triple over the next century. Three slopes are prone to landslides that may trigger GLOFs. Results will mitigate flood hazard at this popular tourism site and advance GLOF research in Iceland and globally.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1331–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random-forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live testing. The model achieved ∼ 70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1255–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We model the decision-making of professional ski guides and develop decision support tools to assist with determining appropriate terrain based on current conditions. Our approach compares a manually constructed Bayesian network with machine learning classification models. The models accurately capture the real-world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1207–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analysing its preconditions and consequences, as well as the role of the changing climate. Our study contributes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates reports detailing the increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1113–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-avalanche terrain and Class 4 – Extreme terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with guidance for the application of ATES.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca A. Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 929–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Research on human factors in avalanche decision-making has become increasingly popular in the past 2 decades. The studies span a wide range of disciplines and are published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of this literature, this study provides a systematic scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making. A total of 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main themes.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good agreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences, while it remained unclear which data source represented reality the best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
Katharina H. Horn, Stenka Vulova, Hanyu Li, and Birgit Kleinschmit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 383–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the propagation saw test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4225–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
Roberto Giovanni Francese, Roberto Valentino, Wilfried Haeberli, Aldino Bondesan, Massimo Giorgi, Stefano Picotti, Franco Pettenati, Denis Sandron, Gianni Ramponi, and Mauro Valt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The deadly collapse of the Marmolada Glacier in Italy in July 2022, is part of a global trend of rapid glacial retreat due to climate change. The event was influenced by permafrost degradation and abnormal warming. Historical data, geophysical surveys, and numerical simulations were used to analyze the collapse. Ice fracturing, water infiltration, and basal lubrication were key contributors. Predicting glacier instability is rather complex but monitoring is vital to cope with the hazard.
Franz Kleine, Charlotte Bruland, Andreas Wüstefeld, Volker Oye, and Martin Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-202, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We used a fiber optic cable along a road in western Norway to study snow avalanches signals. Our study shows that avalanches create distinct signals in the 20–50 Hz frequency range, with larger ones having weak early warning signals. However, road traffic interference complicates automatic detection. This research highlights the potential of using existing infrastructure for avalanche monitoring. Further improvements are needed for automated detection.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Ross S. Purves, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate fully data- and model-driven predictions of avalanche danger in Switzerland and compare them with human-made avalanche forecasts as a benchmark. We show that model predictions perform similarly to human forecasts calling for a systematic integration of forecast chains into the forecasting process.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Renata Moura da Veiga, Celso von Randow, Chantelle Burton, Douglas Kelley, Manoel Cardoso, and Fabiano Morelli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically reviewed 69 papers on fire emissions from the Brazilian Cerrado biome to provide insights into its placement in the atmospheric carbon budget and support future improved estimation. We find that estimating fire emissions in the Cerrado requires a comprehensive approach, combining quantitative and qualitative aspects of fire. A pathway towards this is the inclusion of fire management representation in land surface models and the integration of observational and modelling data.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Julia Glaus, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Perry Bartelt, Marc Christen, Lukas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, and Yves Bühler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses RAMMS::EXTENDED's predictive power in estimating avalanche run-out distances critical for mountain road safety. Leveraging meteorological data and sensitivity analysis, it offers meaningful predictions, aiding near real-time hazard assessments and future model refinement for improved decision-making.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
Cited articles
Barthelemy, S.: A new drought index fitted to clay shrinkage induced subsidence over France: benefits of interactive leaf area index, Barthelemy et al. 2023 – Figure data, Figshare [data set], https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23559507.v1, 2023.
Boone, A., Calvet, J. C., and Noilhan, J.: Inclusion of a third soil layer in a land surface scheme using the force-restore method, J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, 1611–1630, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<1611:IOATSL>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Boone, A., Masson, V., Meyers, T., and Noilhan, J.: The Influence of the Inclusion of Soil Freezing on Simulations by a Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme, J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 1544–1569, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1544:TIOTIO>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
BRGM: M'informer sur le retrait-gonflement des argiles – Exposition du territoire au phénomène, https://www.georisques.gouv.fr/articles-risques/retrait-gonflement-des-argiles/exposition-du-territoire-au-phenomene, last access: 11 March 2024.
Bronswijk, J. J. B.: Prediction of actual cracking and subsidence in clay soils, Soil Sci., 148, 87–93, https://doi.org/10.1097/00010694-198908000-00002, 1989.
Brut, A., Rüdiger, C., Lafont, S., Roujean, J.-L., Calvet, J.-C., Jarlan, L., Gibelin, A.-L., Albergel, C., Le Moigne, P., Soussana, J.-F., Klumpp, K., Guyon, D., Wigneron, J.-P., and Ceschia, E.: Modelling LAI at a regional scale with ISBA-A-gs: comparison with satellite-derived LAI over southwestern France, Biogeosciences, 6, 1389–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-1389-2009, 2009.
Buras, A., Rammig, A., and Zang, C. S.: Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003, Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020.
Burnol, A., Foumelis, M., Gourdier, S., Deparis, J., and Raucoules, D.: Monitoring of expansive clays over drought-rewetting cycles using satellite remote sensing, Atmosphere, 12, 1262, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101262, 2021.
Calvet, J.-C.: Investigating soil and atmospheric plant water stress using physiological and micrometeorological data, Agric. For. Meteorol., 103, 229–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00130-1, 2000.
Calvet, J.-C. and Soussana, J.-F.: Modelling CO2-enrichment effects using an interactive vegetation SVAT scheme, Agric. For. Meteorol., 108, 129–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(01)00235-0, 2001.
Calvet, J.-C., Noilhan, J., Roujean, J.-L., Bessemoulin, P., Cabelguenne, M., Olioso, A., and Wigneron, J.-P.: An interactive vegetation SVAT model tested against data from six contrasting sites, Agric. For. Meteorol., 92, 73–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(98)00091-4, 1998.
Calvet, J.-C., Rivalland, V., Picon-Cochard, C., and Guehl, J.-M.: Modelling forest transpiration and CO2 fluxes – Response to soil moisture stress, Agric. For. Meteorol., 124, 143–156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.007, 2004.
CCR: Les Catastrophes naturelles en France, Bilan 1982–2021, https://catastrophes-naturelles.ccr.fr/documents/148935/368920/BILAN+Cat+Nat+1982-2021.pdf/cb6ffbc8-f096-e8a6-5f71-3fe68ee8d78e?t=1675351436030 (last access 11 March 2023), 2021.
CCR: Rapport au Ministre de l'économie, des finances, et de la souveraineté industrielle et numérique sur le régime d'indemnisation des catastrophes naturelles, https://www.ccr.fr/documents/35794/1130659/Rapport+au+ministre+-+Decembre+2022.pdf/c6edbb8e-e5ba-e5d6-2d30-d2750c229086?t=1675073436815 (last access: 11 March 2024), 2022.
CCR and Météo-France: Conséquences du changement climatique sur le coût des catastrophes naturelles en France à horizon 2050, 32 pp., https://www.ccr.fr/documents/35794/35836/Etude+Climatique+2018+version+complete.pdf/6a7b6120-7050-ff2e-4aa9-89e80c1e30f2?t=1536662736000 (last access: 11 March 2024), 2018.
Charpentier, A., James, M., and Ali, H.: Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022.
Clapp, R. B. and Hornberger, G. M.: Empirical equations for some soil hydraulic properties, Water Resour. Res., 14, 601–604, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i004p00601, 1978.
CNRM: SURFEX code, CNRM [code], http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/data/OPEN-SURFEX/open_surfex_v8_1_20210914.tar.gz (last access: 11 March 2024), 2016.
Cojean, R.: Introduction, Rev. Française Géotechnique, 120–121, 7–9, https://doi.org/10.1051/geotech/2007120007, 2007.
Cooling, L. F. and Ward, W. H.: Some examples of foundation movements due to causes other than structural loads, in: Proceedings 2nd international conference on soil mechanics and foundation engineering, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 21 to 30 June 1948, 162–167, https://www.issmge.org/publications/publication/some-examples-of-foundation-movements-due-to-causes-other-than-structural-loads (last access: 11 March 2024), 1948.
Corti, T., Muccione, V., Köllner-Heck, P., Bresch, D., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Simulating past droughts and associated building damages in France, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1739–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1739-2009, 2009.
Corti, T., Wüest, M., Bresch, D., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Drought-induced building damages from simulations at regional scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3335–3342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3335-2011, 2011.
Covéa and RiskWeatherTech: Changement climatique et Assurance: Quelles conséquences sur la sinistralité à horizon 2050?, https://www.covea.com/sites/default/files/2022-02/202202_Livre_Blanc_Cov%C3%A9a_Risques_Climatiques.pdf (last access: 11 March 2024), 2022.
Crilly, M.: Analysis of a database of subsidence damage, Struct. Surv., 19, 7–14, https://doi.org/10.1108/02630800110384185, 2001.
Crosetto, M., Solari, L., Balasis-Levinsen, J., Bateson, L., Casagli, N., Frei, M., Oyen, A., Moldestad, D. A., and Mróz, M.: Deformation Monitoring at European Scale: The Copernicus Ground Motion Service, Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2021, 141–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-141-2021, 2021.
Decharme, B., Boone, A., Delire, C., and Noilhan, J.: Local evaluation of the Interaction between Soil Biosphere Atmosphere soil multilayer diffusion scheme using four pedotransfer functions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D20126, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016002, 2011.
Decharme, B., Martin, E., and Faroux, S.: Reconciling soil thermal and hydrological lower boundary conditions in land surface models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 7819–7834, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50631, 2013.
D'Odorico, P., Ridolfi, L., Porporato, A., and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.: Preferential states of seasonal soil moisture: The impact of climate fluctuations, Water Resour. Res., 36, 2209–2219, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900103, 2000.
Doornkamp, J. C.: Clay Shrinkage Induced Subsidence, Geogr. J., 159, 196–202, https://doi.org/10.2307/3451410, 1993.
Dracup, J. A., Lee, K. S., and Paulson, E. G.: On the definition of droughts, Water Resour. Res., 16, 297–302, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR016i002p00297, 1980.
Durand, Y., Brun, E., Merindol, L., Guyomarc'h, G., Lesaffre, B., and Martin, E.: A meteorological estimation of relevant parameters for snow models, Ann. Glaciol., 18, 65–71, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500011277, 1993.
Ecoto, G. and Chambaz, A.: Forecasting the cost of drought events in France by super learning, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-541, 2022.
Faroux, S., Kaptué Tchuenté, A. T., Roujean, J.-L., Masson, V., Martin, E., and Le Moigne, P.: ECOCLIMAP-II/Europe: a twofold database of ecosystems and surface parameters at 1 km resolution based on satellite information for use in land surface, meteorological and climate models, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 563–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-563-2013, 2013.
Ford, T. W., Wang, Q., and Quiring, S. M.: The observation record length necessary to generate robust soil moisture percentiles, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 55, 2131–2149, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0143.1, 2016.
Freeman, T. J., Burford, D., and Crilly, M. S.: Seasonal foundation movements in London Clay, in: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Ground Movements and Structures, Cardiff, UK, 8–11 July 1991, 485–501, 1992.
Gibelin, A.-L., Calvet, J.-C., Roujean, J.-L., Jarlan, L., and Los, S. O.: Ability of the land surface model ISBA-A-gs to simulate leaf area index at the global scale: Comparison with satellites products, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D18102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006691, 2006.
Gourdier, S. and Plat, E.: Impact du changement climatique sur la sinistralité due au retrait-gonflement des argiles, in: Journées Nationales de Géotechnique et Géologie de l'Ingénieur (JNGG), https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01768395/document (last access: 11 March 2024), 2018.
Habets, F., Boone, A., Champeaux, J.-L., Etchevers, P., Franchistéguy, L., Leblois, E., Ledoux, E., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., Morel, S., Noilhan, J., Seguí, P. Q., Rousset-Regimbeau, F., and Viennot, P.: The SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological model applied over France, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D06113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008548, 2008.
Harrison, A. M., Plim, J. F. M., Harrison, M., Jones, L. D., and Culshaw, M. G.: The relationship between shrink-swell occurrence and climate in south-east England, Proc. Geol. Assoc., 123, 556–575, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pgeola.2012.05.002, 2012.
Hawkins, A. B.: Some engineering geological effects of drought: Examples from the UK, Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ., 72, 37–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-013-0458-7, 2013.
Heranval, A., Lopez, O., and Thomas, M.: Application of machine learning methods to predict drought cost in France, Eur. Actuar. J., 13, 731–753, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-022-00327-z, 2022.
Joly, D., Brossard, T., Cardot, H., Cavailhes, J., Hilal, M., and Wavresky, P.: Les types de climats en France, une construction spatiale, CyberGeo, 2010, 2–22, https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.23155, 2010.
Le Moigne, P., Besson, F., Martin, E., Boé, J., Boone, A., Decharme, B., Etchevers, P., Faroux, S., Habets, F., Lafaysse, M., Leroux, D., and Rousset-Regimbeau, F.: The latest improvements with SURFEX v8.0 of the Safran–Isba–Modcou hydrometeorological model for France, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3925–3946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3925-2020, 2020.
MacQueen, M., Lawson, M., and Ding, W.-N.: The 2018–2019 UK residential dwellings clay shrinkage subsidence event, Int. J. Build. Pathol. Adapt., https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBPA-06-2022-0091, 2023.
Masson, V., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., Faroux, S., Alias, A., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Barbu, A., Boone, A., Bouyssel, F., Brousseau, P., Brun, E., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Donier, S., Essaouini, K., Gibelin, A.-L., Giordani, H., Habets, F., Jidane, M., Kerdraon, G., Kourzeneva, E., Lafaysse, M., Lafont, S., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lemonsu, A., Mahfouf, J.-F., Marguinaud, P., Mokhtari, M., Morin, S., Pigeon, G., Salgado, R., Seity, Y., Taillefer, F., Tanguy, G., Tulet, P., Vincendon, B., Vionnet, V., and Voldoire, A.: The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, in: Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, USA, 17–22 January 1993.
Meisina, C., Zucca, F., Fossati, D., Ceriani, M., and Allievi, J.: Ground deformation monitoring by using the Permanent Scatterers Technique: The example of the Oltrepo Pavese (Lombardia, Italy), Eng. Geol., 88, 240–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.09.010, 2006.
Mostafiz, R. Bin, Friedland, C. J., Rohli, R. V., Bushra, N., and Held, C. L.: Property Risk Assessment for Expansive Soils in Louisiana, Front. Built Environ., 7, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2021.754761, 2021.
MTES: Cartographie de l'exposition des maisons individuelles au retrait-gonflement des argiles, https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2021-06/note_methode_croisement_retrait_gonflement_argiles_juin2021v3.pdf (last access: 11 March 2024), 2021a.
MTES: Nouveau zonage d'exposition au retrait-gonflement des argiles: plus de 10,4 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées, https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/nouveau-zonage-dexposition-au-retrait-gonflement-des-argiles-plus-de-104-millions-de-maisons (last access: 19 March 2024), 2021b.
Nachtergaele, F., Velthuizen, H., Verelst, L., and Wiberg, D.: Harmonized World Soil Database Version 1.2 [data set], https://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ESDB_Archive/Soil_Data/Docs_GlobalData/Harmonized_World_Soi_Database_v1.2.pdf (last access: 11 March 2024), 2012.
Noilhan, J. and Lacarrère, P.: GCM Grid-Scale Evaporation from Mesoscale Modeling, J. Climate, 8, 206–223, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0206:GGSEFM>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Noilhan, J. and Mahfouf, J. F.: The ISBA land surface parameterisation scheme, Glob. Planet. Change, 13, 145–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00043-7, 1996.
Noilhan, J. and Planton, S.: A Simple Parameterization of Land Surface Processes for Meteorological Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 536–549, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0536:ASPOLS>2.0.CO;2, 1989.
Page, R. C. J.: Reducing the cost of subsidence damage despite global warming, Struct. Surv., 16, 67–75, https://doi.org/10.1108/02630809810219641, 1998.
Quintana-Seguí, P., Le Moigne, P., Durand, Y., Martin, E., Habets, F., Baillon, M., Canellas, C., Franchisteguy, L., and Morel, S.: Analysis of near-surface atmospheric variables: Validation of the SAFRAN analysis over France, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 47, 92–107, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1636.1, 2008.
Ravina, I.: The influence of vegetation on moisture and volume changes, Géotechnique, 33, 151–157, https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1983.33.2.151, 1983.
Salagnac, J.-L.: Lessons from the 2003 heat wave: A French perspective, Build. Res. Inf., 35, 450–457, https://doi.org/10.1080/09613210601056554, 2007.
Soubeyroux, J.-M., Kitova, N., Blanchard, M., Vidal, J.-P., Martin, É., and Dandin, P.: Sécheresses des sols en France et changement climatique: Résultats et applications du projet ClimSec, La Météorologie, 8, 21–30, https://doi.org/10.4267/2042/47512, 2012.
Szczypta, C., Calvet, J.-C., Maignan, F., Dorigo, W., Baret, F., and Ciais, P.: Suitability of modelled and remotely sensed essential climate variables for monitoring Euro-Mediterranean droughts, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, 2014.
Tessier, D., Coquet, Y., Lefèvre, Y., and Bréda, N.: Rôle de la végétation dans les processus de propagation de la sécheresse dans les sols argileux, Rev. Française Géotechnique, 120–121, 35–43, https://doi.org/10.1051/geotech/2007120035, 2007.
Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Cammalleri, C., de Jager, A., Di Ciollo, C. ., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Maetens, W., Masante, D., Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., and Spinoni, J.: Drought in Europe – August 2022, 19 pp., https://doi.org/10.2760/264241, 2022.
Tzampoglou, P., Loukidis, D., and Koulermou, N.: Seasonal Ground Movement Due to Swelling/Shrinkage of Nicosia Marl, Remote Sens., 14, 1440, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14061440, 2022.
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Habets, F., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Blanchard, M., and Baillon, M.: Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-459-2010, 2010.
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Kitova, N., Najac, J., and Soubeyroux, J.-M.: Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2935–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2935-2012, 2012.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 2nd edn., Int. Geophys. Series, Academic Press, Elsevier, 91, 627 pp., ISBN 13: 978-0-12-751966-1, 2006.
WMO and GWP: Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices, in: Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), Integrated Drought Management Tools and Guidelines Series 2, Geneva, edited by: Svoboda, M. and Fuchs, B. A., https://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/GWP_Handbook_of_Drought_Indicators_and_Indices_2016.pdf (last access: 13 July 2023), 2016.
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint