Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 08 Nov 2024
| 08 Nov 2024
Size scaling of large landslides from incomplete inventories
Oliver Korup
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Lisa V. Luna
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Potsdam, Germany
Joaquin V. Ferrer
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Potsdam, Germany
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We studied 22 cascading landslide and torrential events in tropical mountains to understand how rainfall, slopes, and soil types interact to trigger them. We found that extreme rainfall alone is not always the cause, but long wet periods and sediment type also play a role. Our findings can help improve warning systems and reduce disaster risks in vulnerable regions.
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As the atmosphere warms, thinning glacier dams impound smaller lakes at their margins. Yet, some lakes deviate from this trend and have instead grown over time, increasing the risk of glacier floods to downstream populations and infrastructure. In this article, we examine the mechanisms behind the growth of an ice-dammed lake in Alaska. We find that the growth in size and outburst volumes is more controlled by glacier front downwaste than by overall mass loss over the entire glacier surface.
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
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In the past decades the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks has grown extensively making them more vulnerable to any kind of hazard. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to debris flows, a process frequently occurring in the mountainous area of Norway. The paper quantifies the functional risk associated with these processes. The results reveal that the costs related to route closures are strongly related to the information status of drivers.
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As the atmosphere warms, thinning glacier dams impound smaller lakes at their margins. Yet, some lakes deviate from this trend and have instead grown over time, increasing the risk of glacier floods to downstream populations and infrastructure. In this article, we examine the mechanisms behind the growth of an ice-dammed lake in Alaska. We find that the growth in size and outburst volumes is more controlled by glacier front downwaste than by overall mass loss over the entire glacier surface.
Amalie Skålevåg, Oliver Korup, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4771–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4771-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4771-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a cluster-based approach for inferring sediment discharge event types from suspended sediment concentration and streamflow. Applying it to a glacierised catchment, we find event magnitude and shape complexity to be the key characteristics separating event types, while hysteresis is less important. The four event types are attributed to compound rainfall–melt extremes, high snowmelt and glacier melt, freeze–thaw-modulated snow-melt and precipitation, and late-season glacier melt.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Z. Xiong, D. Stober, M. Krstić, O. Korup, M. I. Arango, H. Li, and M. Werner
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-5-W1-2023, 75–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-5-W1-2023-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-5-W1-2023-75-2023, 2023
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Short summary
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Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Karolina Korzeniowska, Yves Bühler, Mauro Marty, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1823–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons, and obtained a user’s accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen’s kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km2, we estimated producer’s and user’s accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively.
N. K. Meyer, W. Schwanghart, O. Korup, and F. Nadim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 985–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In the past decades the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks has grown extensively making them more vulnerable to any kind of hazard. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to debris flows, a process frequently occurring in the mountainous area of Norway. The paper quantifies the functional risk associated with these processes. The results reveal that the costs related to route closures are strongly related to the information status of drivers.
O. Korup and C. Rixen
The Cryosphere, 8, 651–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-651-2014, 2014
C. H. Mohr, A. Zimmermann, O. Korup, A. Iroumé, T. Francke, and A. Bronstert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 117–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, 2014
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Rainfall-induced landslides result in deaths and economic losses annually across the globe. However, it is unclear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to dynamically map landslide-affected areas, and we compare this to meteorological estimates of storm severity. We find that preconditioning by earlier storms and the location of rainfall bursts, rather than atmospheric storm strength, dictate landslide magnitude and pattern.
Ellen B. Robson, Bhim Kumar Dahal, and David G. Toll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 949–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, 2025
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Slopes excavated alongside roads in Nepal frequently fail (a landslide), resulting in substantial losses. Our participatory approach study with road engineers aimed to assess how road slope design guidelines in Nepal can be improved. Our study revealed inconsistent guideline adherence due to a lack of user-friendliness and inadequate training. We present general recommendations to enhance road slope management, as well as technical recommendations to improve the guidelines.
Chenchen Qiu and Xueyu Geng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, 2025
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We propose an integrated method using a combination of a physical vulnerability matrix and a machine learning model to estimate the potential physical damage and associated economic loss caused by future debris flows based on collected historical data on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region.
Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 647–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, 2025
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Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris-flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows that pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the “window of non-recognition” where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 467–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, 2025
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We developed a machine-learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables, including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology, and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best-performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by at least 20 % compared to previous models.
Jui-Ming Chang, Che-Ming Yang, Wei-An Chao, Chin-Shang Ku, Ming-Wan Huang, Tung-Chou Hsieh, and Chi-Yao Hung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, 2025
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The study on the Cilan landslide (CL) demonstrates the utilization of seismic analysis results as preliminary data for geologists during field surveys. Spectrograms revealed that the first event of CL consisted of four sliding failures accompanied by a gradual reduction in landslide volume. The second and third events were minor toppling and rockfalls. Then combining the seismological-based knowledge and field survey results, the spatiotemporal variation in landslide evolution is proposed.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, 2025
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The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
Marko Sinčić, Sanja Bernat Gazibara, Mauro Rossi, and Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 183–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, 2025
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The paper focuses on classifying continuous landslide conditioning factors for susceptibility modelling, which resulted in 54 landslide susceptibility models that tested 11 classification criteria in combination with 5 statistical methods. The novelty of the research is that using stretched landslide conditioning factor values results in models with higher accuracy and that certain statistical methods are more sensitive to the landslide conditioning factor classification criteria than others.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, 2025
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Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this paper, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, 2025
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This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing 8 years of data from Taiwan's Lushan, improving early warning and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.
Di Wu, Yuke Wang, and Xin Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4617–4630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, 2024
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This paper proposes a 3D limit analysis for seismic stability of soil slopes to address the influence of earthquakes on slope stabilities with nonlinear and linear criteria. Comparison results illustrate that the use of a linear envelope leads to the non-negligible overestimation of steep-slope stability, and this overestimation will be significant with increasing earthquakes. Earthquakes have a smaller influence on slope slip surfaces with a nonlinear envelope than those with a linear envelope.
Li Wei, Kaiheng Hu, Shuang Liu, Lan Ning, Xiaopeng Zhang, Qiyuan Zhang, and Md. Abdur Rahim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4179–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, 2024
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The damage patterns of the buildings were classified into three types: (I) buried by primary debris flow, (II) inundated by secondary dam-burst flood, and (III) sequentially buried by debris flow and inundated by dam-burst flood. The threshold of the impact pressures in Zones (II) and (III) where vulnerability is equal to 1 is 84 kPa and 116 kPa, respectively. Heavy damage occurs at an impact pressure greater than 50 kPa, while slight damage occurs below 30 kPa.
Bo Peng and Xueling Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3991–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, 2024
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Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy-rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.
Mahnoor Ahmed, Giacomo Titti, Sebastiano Trevisani, Lisa Borgatti, and Mirko Francioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Elevation models are compared with a true dataset for terrain characteristics which selects a better ranking model to test with different parameters for partitioning the terrain. The partitioning of the terrain is measured by how well a partitioned unit can support the mapped landslide area and number of landslides. The effect of this relationship is reflected with different metrics in the susceptibility maps.
Andrea Manconi, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, Qiaoping Zhang, and Valentyn Tolpekin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3833–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, 2024
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Our research reveals the power of high-resolution satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery for slope deformation monitoring. Using ICEYE data over the Brienz/Brinzauls instability, we measured surface velocity and mapped the landslide event with unprecedented precision. This underscores the potential of satellite SAR for timely hazard assessment in remote regions and aiding disaster mitigation efforts effectively.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3651–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, 2024
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This work examines the use of interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) alongside in situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). Comparing InSAR with borehole data suggests a key trade-off between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error in a remote sensing re-creation of ground motion over the landslide.
Lorenzo Nava, Alessandro Novellino, Chengyong Fang, Kushanav Bhuyan, Kathryn Leeming, Itahisa Gonzalez Alvarez, Claire Dashwood, Sophie Doward, Rahul Chahel, Emma McAllister, Sansar Raj Meena, and Filippo Catani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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On April 2, 2024, a Mw 7.4 earthquake hit Taiwan’s eastern coast, causing extensive landslides and damage. We used automated methods combining Earth Observation (EO) data with Artificial Intelligence (AI) to quickly inventory the landslides. This approach identified 7,090 landslides over 75 km2 within 3 hours of acquiring the EO imagery. The study highlights AI’s role in improving landslide detection and understanding earthquake-landslide interactions for better hazard mitigation.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3357–3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, 2024
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The initiation of debris flows is significantly influenced by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model and aimed at estimating intensity–duration (ID) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically based framework is particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data are scarce.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, 2024
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The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on the NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy rainfall in 2022 . Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Isabelle Utley, Tristram Hales, Ekbal Hussain, and Xuanmei Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, 2024
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We analysed debris flows in Sichuan, China, using satellite data and simulations to assess check dam efficacy. Our study found whilst check dams can mitigate smaller flows, they may increase exposure to extreme events, with up to 40 % of structures in some areas affected. Urban development and reliance on check dams can create a false sense of security, raising exposure during large debris flows and highlights the need for risk management and infrastructure planning in hazard-prone areas.
Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero, Pasquale Marino, Abdullah Abdullah, Giovanni Francesco Santonastaso, and Roberto Greco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, 2024
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Local thresholds for landslide forecasting, combining hydrologic predisposing factors and rainfall features, are developed from a physically based model of a slope. To extend their application to a wide area, uncertainty due to spatial variability of geomorphological and hydrologic variables is introduced. The obtained hydrometeorological thresholds, integrating root zone soil moisture and aquifer water level with rainfall depth, outperform thresholds based on rain intensity and duration.
Micol Fumagalli, Alberto Previati, Paolo Frattini, and Giovanni B. Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Shallow landslides are mass movements of limited thickness, mainly triggered by extreme rainfalls, that can pose a serious risk to the population. This study uses statistical methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between shallow landslides and rainfalls, showing that in the studied area shallow landslides are modulated by rainfall but controlled by lithology. A new classification method considering the costs associated with a misclassification of the susceptibility is also proposed.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
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Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
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The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
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Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
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Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
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In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jane Walden, Mylène Jacquemart, Bretwood Higman, Romain Hugonnet, Andrea Manconi, and Daniel Farinotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, 2024
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In a study of eight landslides adjacent to glaciers in Alaska, we found that landslide movement increased as the glacier retreated past the landslide at four sites. Movement at other sites coincided with heavy precipitation or increased glacier thinning, and two sites showed little-to-no motion. We suggest that landslides next to water-terminating glaciers may be especially vulnerable to acceleration, which we guess is due to faster retreat rates and water replacing ice at the landslide edge.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
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With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
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Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
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Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
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We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
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We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
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We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
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We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
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Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
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Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
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The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
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Short summary
Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain mostly uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental settings.
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