Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 23 Jun 2023
| 23 Jun 2023
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Manuel Stocchi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Beatriz Martínez Montesinos
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Laura Sandri
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Jacopo Selva
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Università degli Studi di Napoli, Federico II, Naples, Italy
Roberto Sulpizio
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Biagio Giaccio
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Massimiliano Moscatelli
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Edoardo Peronace
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Marco Nocentini
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Dipartimento per il Servizio Geologico d'Italia, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Rome, Italy
Roberto Isaia
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Manuel Titos Luzón
Signal Processing and Machine Learning, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
Pierfrancesco Dellino
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Giuseppe Naso
Dipartimento di Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy
Antonio Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
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Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
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Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in...
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