Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Manuel Stocchi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Beatriz Martínez Montesinos
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Laura Sandri
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Jacopo Selva
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Università degli Studi di Napoli, Federico II, Naples, Italy
Roberto Sulpizio
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Biagio Giaccio
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Massimiliano Moscatelli
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Edoardo Peronace
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Marco Nocentini
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Dipartimento per il Servizio Geologico d'Italia, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Rome, Italy
Roberto Isaia
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Manuel Titos Luzón
Signal Processing and Machine Learning, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
Pierfrancesco Dellino
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Giuseppe Naso
Dipartimento di Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy
Antonio Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Related authors
Silvia Massaro, Roberto Sulpizio, Gianluca Norini, Gianluca Groppelli, Antonio Costa, Lucia Capra, Giacomo Lo Zupone, Michele Porfido, and Andrea Gabrieli
Solid Earth, 11, 2515–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we provide a 2D finite-element modelling of the stress field conditions around the Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) in order to test the response of the commercial Linear Static Analysis software to increasingly different geological constraints. Results suggest that an appropriate set of geological and geophysical data improves the mesh generation procedures and the degree of accuracy of numerical outputs, aimed at more reliable physics-based representations of the natural system.
Silvia Massaro, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Diego Coppola, and Lucia Capra
Solid Earth, 10, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) shows a complex eruptive history, with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth punctuated by explosive activity. Here we reconstructed the 1998–2018 average discharge rate by means of satellite thermal data and the literature. Using spectral and wavelet analysis, we found a multi-term cyclic behavior that is in good agreement with numerical modeling, accounting for a variable magmatic feeding system composed of a single or double magma chamber system.
Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Giovanni Zanchetta, Adele Bertini, Gian Paolo Cavinato, Roberto de Franco, Fabio Florindo, David A. Hodell, Thomas A. Neubauer, Sebastien Nomade, Alison Pereira, Laura Sadori, Sara Satolli, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Paul Albert, Paolo Boncio, Cindy De Jonge, Alexander Francke, Christine Heim, Alessia Masi, Marta Marchegiano, Helen M. Roberts, Anders Noren, and the MEME team
Sci. Dril., 33, 249–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 42 Earth scientists from 14 countries met in Gioia dei Marsi, central Italy, on 23 to 27 October 2023 to explore the potential for deep drilling of the thick lake sediment sequence of the Fucino Basin. The aim was to reconstruct the history of climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity changes and of the explosive volcanism and tectonics in central Italy over the last 3.5 million years, constrained by a detailed radiometric chronology.
Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4431–4455, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
Pierfrancesco Dellino, Fabio Dioguardi, Roberto Sulpizio, and Daniela Mele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pyroclastic deposits are the only records left by pyroclastic flows at Vesuvius, deposits from past eruptions are the only way to get hints about the expected range of impact parameters. It is necessary to investigate the deposits first, then define a general model of the current that links deposit characteristics to flow dynamics, and finally reconstruct the impact parameters that better represent flow intensity in terms of damaging potential. This is the way the paper is organized.
Luigi Mereu, Manuel Stocchi, Alexander Garcia, Michele Prestifilippo, Laura Sandri, Costanza Bonadonna, and Simona Scollo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Considering the question about the quantification of tephra mass deposited on roads following an or a series of explosive volcanic eruptions, in this work we assessed the cumulated tephra mass on the road networks in three selected towns on Etna’s eastern flank during several paroxysms in 2021. This is a first attempt to estimate the amount of tephra that must be removed during a crisis and could be reused instead of disposed, converting in this way a potential problem into an opportunity.
Federico Mori, Giuseppe Naso, Amerigo Mendicelli, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Chiara Varone, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-104, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Our research introduces an unmatched dataset of 15,000 shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles from the Italian Seismic Microzonation Database, aimed at dissecting uncertainties to refine seismic hazard analyses. By scrutinizing Vs variations within diverse seismic microzones, we seek to elevate the precision of seismic risk assessments. The study underscores the critical importance of understanding Vs and its uncertainties, showcasing our commitment to advancing seismic hazard comprehension.
Manuel Titos, Carmen Benítez, Milad Kowsari, and Jesús M. Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-102, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Developing seismo-volcanic monitoring tools is crucial for Volcanic Observatories. Our study reviews current methods using Transfer Learning techniques and finds that while these systems identify nearly 90 % of seismic events, they miss other important volcanic data due to the catalogue-learning bias. We propose a weakly supervised technique to reduce bias and uncover new volcanic information. This method can improve existing databases and create new ones efficiently using machine learning.
Laura Sandri, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Roberto Gianardi, Sandro de Vita, and Roberto Sulpizio
Solid Earth, 15, 459–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro A. Di Vito, Laura Sandri, and Domenico M. Doronzo
Solid Earth, 15, 437–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a numerical model for lahars generated by the mobilization of tephra deposits from a reference size eruption at Somma–Vesuvius. The paper presents the model (pyhsics and numerics) and a sensitivity analysis of the processes modelled, numerical schemes, and grid resolution. This work provides the basis for application to hazard quantification for lahars in the Vesuvius area. To this end, we rely on results of the two companion papers (Part 1 on field data, Part 3 on hazard maps).
Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Sandro de Vita, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Giovanni Zanchetta, Elena Zanella, and Antonio Costa
Solid Earth, 15, 405–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the distribution of two historical pyroclastic fall–flow and lahar deposits from the sub-Plinian Vesuvius eruptions of 472 CE Pollena and 1631. The motivation comes directly from the widely distributed impact that both the eruptions and lahar phenomena had on the Campanian territory, not only around the volcano but also down the nearby Apennine valleys. Data on about 500 stratigraphic sections and modeling allowed us to evaluate the physical and dynamical impact of these phenomena.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold gas stream, which had already been lethal for humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentration at defined probability levels and of the probability to overcome specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Leonardo Mingari, Antonio Costa, Giovanni Macedonio, and Arnau Folch
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3459–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two novel techniques for ensemble-based data assimilation, suitable for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions such as tephra deposit mass loading, are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. The deposit spatial distribution and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Federico Mori, Amerigo Mendicelli, Gaetano Falcone, Gianluca Acunzo, Rose Line Spacagna, Giuseppe Naso, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 947–966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses the problem of the ground motion estimation over large areas as an important tool for seismic-risk reduction policies. In detail, the near-real-time estimation of ground motion is a key issue for emergency system management. Starting from this consideration, the present work proposes the application of a machine learning approach to produce ground motion maps, using nine input proxies. Such proxies consider seismological, geophysical, and morphological parameters.
Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Andrew T. Prata, Federica Pardini, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1773–1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to improve forecasting of volcanic aerosols. This system can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing resources. We found a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when satellite retrievals are continuously assimilated. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from this research.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Andrew T. Prata, Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 409–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details new model applications and validation of FALL3D-8.0 using satellite, ground-deposit load and radionuclide data.
Silvia Massaro, Roberto Sulpizio, Gianluca Norini, Gianluca Groppelli, Antonio Costa, Lucia Capra, Giacomo Lo Zupone, Michele Porfido, and Andrea Gabrieli
Solid Earth, 11, 2515–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we provide a 2D finite-element modelling of the stress field conditions around the Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) in order to test the response of the commercial Linear Static Analysis software to increasingly different geological constraints. Results suggest that an appropriate set of geological and geophysical data improves the mesh generation procedures and the degree of accuracy of numerical outputs, aimed at more reliable physics-based representations of the natural system.
Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Natalia Gutierrez, Mauricio Hanzich, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1431–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code.
Silvia Massaro, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Diego Coppola, and Lucia Capra
Solid Earth, 10, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) shows a complex eruptive history, with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth punctuated by explosive activity. Here we reconstructed the 1998–2018 average discharge rate by means of satellite thermal data and the literature. Using spectral and wavelet analysis, we found a multi-term cyclic behavior that is in good agreement with numerical modeling, accounting for a variable magmatic feeding system composed of a single or double magma chamber system.
Manuela Volpe, Stefano Lorito, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Fabrizio Romano, and Beatriz Brizuela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 455–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-455-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-455-2019, 2019
Matthieu Poret, Stefano Corradini, Luca Merucci, Antonio Costa, Daniele Andronico, Mario Montopoli, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Valentin Freret-Lorgeril
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4695–4714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims at proposing a method to better assess the initial magma fragmentation produced during explosive volcanic eruptions. We worked on merging field, radar, and satellite data to estimate the total grain-size distribution, which is used within simulations to reconstruct the tephra loading and far-travelling airborne ash dispersal. This approach is applied to 23 November 2013, giving the very fine ash fraction related to volcanic hazards (e.g. air traffic safety).
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Bernd Wagner, Thomas Wilke, Alexander Francke, Christian Albrecht, Henrike Baumgarten, Adele Bertini, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Michele D'Addabbo, Timme H. Donders, Kirstin Föller, Biagio Giaccio, Andon Grazhdani, Torsten Hauffe, Jens Holtvoeth, Sebastien Joannin, Elena Jovanovska, Janna Just, Katerina Kouli, Andreas Koutsodendris, Sebastian Krastel, Jack H. Lacey, Niklas Leicher, Melanie J. Leng, Zlatko Levkov, Katja Lindhorst, Alessia Masi, Anna M. Mercuri, Sebastien Nomade, Norbert Nowaczyk, Konstantinos Panagiotopoulos, Odile Peyron, Jane M. Reed, Eleonora Regattieri, Laura Sadori, Leonardo Sagnotti, Björn Stelbrink, Roberto Sulpizio, Slavica Tofilovska, Paola Torri, Hendrik Vogel, Thomas Wagner, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, George A. Wolff, Thomas Wonik, Giovanni Zanchetta, and Xiaosen S. Zhang
Biogeosciences, 14, 2033–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2033-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2033-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Ohrid is considered to be the oldest existing lake in Europe. Moreover, it has a very high degree of endemic biodiversity. During a drilling campaign at Lake Ohrid in 2013, a 569 m long sediment sequence was recovered from Lake Ohrid. The ongoing studies of this record provide first important information on the environmental and evolutionary history of the lake and the reasons for its high endimic biodiversity.
Giovanni Zanchetta, Eleonora Regattieri, Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Roberto Sulpizio, Alex Francke, Hendrik Vogel, Laura Sadori, Alessia Masi, Gaia Sinopoli, Jack H. Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, and Niklas Leicher
Biogeosciences, 13, 2757–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2757-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Chronology is fundamental in paleoclimatology for understanding timing of events and their origin. In this paper we try to obtain a more detailed chronology for the interval comprised between ca. 140 and 70 ka for the DEEP core in Lake Ohrid using regional independently-dated archives (i.e. speleothems and/or lacustrine succession with well-dated volcanic layers). This allows to insert the DEEP chronology within a common chronological frame between different continental and marine proxy records.
Niklas Leicher, Giovanni Zanchetta, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Sebastien Nomade, Alexander Francke, and Paola Del Carlo
Biogeosciences, 13, 2151–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2151-2016, 2016
Alexander Francke, Bernd Wagner, Janna Just, Niklas Leicher, Raphael Gromig, Henrike Baumgarten, Hendrik Vogel, Jack H. Lacey, Laura Sadori, Thomas Wonik, Melanie J. Leng, Giovanni Zanchetta, Roberto Sulpizio, and Biagio Giaccio
Biogeosciences, 13, 1179–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1179-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) is thought to be more than 1.2 million years old. To recover a long paleoclimate record for the Mediterranean region, a deep drilling was carried out in 2013 within the scope of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project. Here, we present lithological, sedimentological, and (bio-)geochemical data from the upper 247.8 m composite depth of the overall 569 m long DEEP site record.
Elena Jovanovska, Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Torsten Hauffe, Zlatko Levkov, Bernd Wagner, Roberto Sulpizio, Alexander Francke, Christian Albrecht, and Thomas Wilke
Biogeosciences, 13, 1149–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1149-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1149-2016, 2016
A. Folch, A. Costa, and G. Macedonio
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 431–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in presence of liquid water or ice.
H. Baumgarten, T. Wonik, D. C. Tanner, A. Francke, B. Wagner, G. Zanchetta, R. Sulpizio, B. Giaccio, and S. Nomade
Biogeosciences, 12, 7453–7465, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7453-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Gamma ray (GR) fluctuations and K values from downhole logging data obtained in the sediments of Lake Ohrid correlate with the global climate reference record (LR04 stack from δ18O) (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). GR and K values are considered a reliable proxy to depict glacial-interglacial cycles and document warm, humid and cold, drier periods. A robust age model for the downhole logging data over the past 630kyr was established and will play a crucial role for other working groups.
B. Giaccio, E. Regattieri, G. Zanchetta, B. Wagner, P. Galli, G. Mannella, E. Niespolo, E. Peronace, P. R. Renne, S. Nomade, G. P. Cavinato, P. Messina, A. Sposato, C. Boschi, F. Florindo, F. Marra, and L. Sadori
Sci. Dril., 20, 13–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-20-13-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-20-13-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
As a pilot study for a possible depth-drilling project, an 82m long sedimentary succession was retrieved from the Fucino Basin, central Apennines, which hosts ca. 900m of lacustrine sediments. The acquired paleoclimatic record, from the retrieved core, spans the last 180ka and reveals noticeable variations related to the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. In light of these results, the Fucino sediments are likely to provide one of the longest continuous record for the last 2Ma.
M. D'Addabbo, R. Sulpizio, M. Guidi, G. Capitani, P. Mantecca, and G. Zanchetta
Biogeosciences, 12, 7087–7106, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7087-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7087-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Leaching experiments were carried out on fresh ash samples from the 2012 Popocatépetl, and 2011/12 Etna eruptions, in order to investigate the release of compounds in water. Results were discussed in the light of changing pH and release of compounds for the different leachates. They were used for toxicity experiments on living biota (Xenopus laevis). They are mildly toxic, and no significant differences exist between the toxic profiles of the two leachates.
R. Tonini, L. Sandri, A. Costa, and J. Selva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, 2015
B. Wagner, T. Wilke, S. Krastel, G. Zanchetta, R. Sulpizio, K. Reicherter, M. J. Leng, A. Grazhdani, S. Trajanovski, A. Francke, K. Lindhorst, Z. Levkov, A. Cvetkoska, J. M. Reed, X. Zhang, J. H. Lacey, T. Wonik, H. Baumgarten, and H. Vogel
Sci. Dril., 17, 19–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-17-19-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-17-19-2014, 2014
R. Basili, M. M. Tiberti, V. Kastelic, F. Romano, A. Piatanesi, J. Selva, and S. Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1025–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, 2013
B. Wagner, A. Francke, R. Sulpizio, G. Zanchetta, K. Lindhorst, S. Krastel, H. Vogel, J. Rethemeyer, G. Daut, A. Grazhdani, B. Lushaj, and S. Trajanovski
Clim. Past, 8, 2069–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2069-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2069-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
Automating tephra fall building damage assessment using deep learning
Where will the next flank eruption at Etna occur? An updated spatial probabilistic assessment
Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions
“More poison than words can describe”: what did people die of after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland?
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015 eruption
Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation
Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results
Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience
Lightning and electrical activity during the Shiveluch volcano eruption on 16 November 2014
Eleanor Tennant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Victoria Miller, Richard Robertson, Bihan Wen, Sang-Ho Yun, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4585–4608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After a volcanic eruption, assessing building damage quickly is important for responding to and recovering from the disaster. Traditional damage assessment methods such as ground surveys can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, hindering rapid response and recovery efforts. To overcome this, we have developed an automated approach for tephra fall building damage assessment. Our approach uses drone-acquired optical images and deep learning to rapidly generate building damage data.
Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4431–4455, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter (now X) posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show that even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people. Earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact, but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Ana Graciela Ulke, Marcela M. Torres Brizuela, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2159–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
Rosario Vázquez, Lucia Capra, and Velio Coviello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present the morphological changes experienced by Montegrande ravine (Volcán de Colima, Mexico) during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. A total of 11 lahars occurred during this period of time, and their erosion/deposition effects were quantified by means of cross sections and rainfall analysis. The major factors controlling the E/D rates are the channel-bed slope, the cross-section width, the flow depth and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall.
Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.
Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.
Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
Boris M. Shevtsov, Pavel P. Firstov, Nina V. Cherneva, Robert H. Holzworth, and Renat R. Akbashev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 871–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Kamchatka volcano group is located near populated areas and international air routes. Due to this, explosive eruptions are a serious threat to their security. To decrease the risks, effective systems for remote detection of eruptions are necessary. WWLLN resolution is enough for the remote sensing of the volcano lightning activity in the early stage of ash cloud formation a few minutes after the eruption when electrification proceeds the most intensively.
Cited articles
Albert, P. G., Giaccio, B., Isaia, R., Costa, A., Niespolo, E., Nomade, S.,
Pereira, A., Renne, P. R., Hinchliffe, A., Mark, D. F., Brown, R. J., and
Smith, V. C.: Evidence for a large-magnitude eruption from Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy) at 29 ka, Geology, 47, 595–599, https://doi.org/10.1130/G45805.1,
2019. a
Alderton, D. and Elias, S. A.: Encyclopedia of Geology (Second edition),
Academic Press, Elsevier, ISBN 978-0-323-85447-4, 2020. a
Andronico, D. and Cioni, R.: Contrasting styles of Mount Vesuvius activity in
the period between the Avellino and Pompeii Plinian eruptions, and some
implications for assessment of future hazards, B. Volcanol., 64,
372–391, https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1007/s00445-002-0215-4, 2002. a
Arrighi, S., Principe, C., and Rosi, M.: Violent strombolian and subplinian
eruptions at Vesuvius during post-1631 activity, B. Volcanol., 63,
126–150, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450100130, 2001. a, b
Aspinall, W., Auker, M., Hincks, T., Mahony, S., Pooley, J., Nadim, F., Syre,
E., Sparks, R., and Bank, T.: Volcano hazard and exposure in Track II
countries and risk mitigation measures – GFDRR volcano Risk Study, 309, The
world bank, NGI Report 20100806, 309 pp., 2011. a
Auker, M. R., Sparks, S., Jenkins, S., Aspinall, W., Brown, S. K., Deligne,
N. I., Jolly, G., Loughlin, S., Marzocchi, W., Newhall, C., and Palma, J. L.:
Global volcanic hazard and risk, chap. Development of a new global Volcanic
Hazard Index (VHI), Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316273, 349–357, 2015. a
Barberi, F., Innocenti, F., Lirer, L., Munno, R., Pescatore, T., and
Santacroce, R.: The campanian ignimbrite: a major prehistoric eruption in the
Neapolitan area, B. Volcanol., 10–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02597680, 1978. a
Barberi, F., Coltelli, M., Frullani, A., Rosi, M., and Almeida, E.: Chronology
ad dispersal characteristics of recently (last 5000 years) erupted tephra of
Cotopaxi (Ecuador): implications for long-term eruptive forecasting, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 69, 217–239,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(95)00017-8, 1995. a
Bazzurro, P. and Cornell, C. A.: Disaggregation of seismic hazard, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89, 501–520,
https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0890020501, 1999. a, b, c
Becerril, L., Bartolini, S., Sobradelo, R., Martí, J., Morales, J. M., and Galindo, I.: Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1853–1870, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1853-2014, 2014. a
Bevilacqua, A., Flandoli, F., Neri, A., Isaia, R., and Vitale, S.: Temporal
models for the episodic volcanism of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with
uncertainty quantification, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth,
121, 7821–7845, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013171, 2016. a
Biass, S., Scaini, C., Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Smith, K., and Höskuldsson, A.: A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2265–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, 2014. a
Blong, R.: Volcanic Hazards: A Sourcebok on the effects of eruptions, Elsevier, 76,
113–115, https://doi.org/10.2307/214795, 1984. a, b
Bonadonna, C., Biass, S., Menoni, S., and Gregg, C.: Assessment of risk
associated with tephra-related hazards, Elsevier (Hazards and Disasters), https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818082-2.00008-1, 329–378,
2021. a
Casadevall, T. J.: The 1989-1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska: impacts
on aircrafts operations, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 62,
301–316, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(94)90038-8, 1994. a
Cioni, R., Santacroce, R., and Sbrana, A.: Pyroclastic deposit as a guide for
reconstructing the multi-stage evolution of the Somma-Vesuvius Caldera,
B. Volcanol., 61, 207–222, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450050272, 1999. a
Cioni, R., Longo, A., Macedonio, G., Santacroce, R., Sbrana, A., Sulpizio, R.,
and Andronico, D.: Assessing pyroclastic fall hazard through field data and
numerical simulations: Example from Vesuvius,
Chem. Phys. Miner. Rock/Volcanol., 108, 108.B2, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000642, 2003. a, b
Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., and Andronico, D.: Explosive
activity and eruption scenarios a Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): Towards a new
classification scheme, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178,
33–346, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.04.024, 2008. a
Civetta, L., Gallo, G., and Orsi, G.: Sr- and Nd-isotope and
trace-element constraints on the chemical evolution of the magmatic system of
Ischia (Italy) in the last 55 ka, J. Volcanol. Geoth.
Res., 46, 213–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(91)90084-D, 1991. a
Cole, P. D. and Scarpati, P.: The 1944 eruption of Vesuvius, Italy: combining
contemporary accounts and field studies for a new volcanological
reconstruction, Geol. Mag., 147, 391–415,
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016756809990495, 2010. a, b
Constantinescu, R., Robertson, R., Lindsay, J. M., Tonini, R., Sandri, L.,
Rouwet, D., Smith, P., and Stewart, R.: Application of the probabilistic
model BET_UNREST during a volcanic unrest simulation exercise in Dominica,
Lesser Antilles, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 17, 4438–4456,
2016. a
Cornell, C. A.: Engineering seismic risk analysis, B.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 1583–1606, 1968. a
Cornell, W., Carey, S., and Sigurdsson, H.: Computer simulation of transport
and deposition of the campanian Y-5 ash, J. Volcanol.
Geoth. Res., 17, 89–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(83)90063-X, 1983. a
Costa, A., Pioli, L., and Bonadonna, C.: Assessing tephra total grain-size
distribution: Insights from field data analysis, Earth Planet. Sci.
Lett., 443, 90–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.040, 2016. a
Costa, A., Di Vito, M. A., Ricciardi, G. P., Smith, V. C., and Talamo, P.: The
long and interwined record of humans and the Campi Flegrei volcano (Italy),
B. Volcanol., 84, 1–27, 2022. a
de Vita, S., Orsi, G., Civetta, L., Caradente, A., D'Antonio, M., Deino, A. L.,
di Cesare, T., di Vito, M. A., Fisher, R. V., Isaia, R., Marotta, E., Necco,
A., Ort, M. H., Pappalardo, L., Piochi, M., and Southon, J. R.: The
Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 years BP) in the restless Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 91,
269–301, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(99)00039-6, 1999. a, b
de Vita, S., Sansiviero, F., Orsi, G., Marotta, E., and Piochi, M.:
Volcanological and structural evolution of the Ischia resurgent caldera
(Italy) over the past 10ky, Geol. Soc. Am., 464, 193–239, 2010. a
De Vivo, B., G., R., and Gans, P.: New constraints on the pyroclastic eruptive
history of the Campanian volcanic plain (Italy), Miner. Petrol.,
73, 47–65, 2001. a
Deino, A. L., Orsi, G., de Vita, S., and Piochi, M.: The age of Neapolitan
Yellow Tuff caldera-forming eruption (Campi Flegrei caldera – Italy) asessed
by 40Ar/39Ar dating method, J. Volcanol. Geoth.
Res., 133, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00396-2, 2004. a
Di Vito, M. A., Isaia, R., Orsi, G., Southon, J. R., de Vita, S., D'Antonio,
M., Pappalardo, L., and Piochi, M.: Volcanism and deformation since 12,000
years at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), J. Volcanol.
Geoth. Res., 91, 221–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(99)00037-2, 1999. a
Di Vito, M. A., Arienzo, I., Braia, G., Civetta, L., D'Antonio, M., Di Renzo,
V., and Orsi, G.: The Averno 2 fissure eruption: a recent small-size
expolisve event at the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy), B.
Volcanol., 73, 295–320, 2011. a
Durant, A., Rose, W., Sarna-Wojcicki, A., Carey, S., and Volentik, A.:
Hydrometeor-enhanched tephra sedimentation: Constraints from the 18 May 1980
eruption of Mount St. Helens, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth,
114, B3, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JB005756, 2009. a
Folch, A., Mingari, L., Gutierrez, N., Hanzich, M., Macedonio, G., and Costa, A.: FALL3D-8.0: a computational model for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles, aerosols and radionuclides – Part 1: Model physics and numerics, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1431–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, 2020. a, b
Freire, S., Florczyk, A. J., Pesaresi, M., and Sliuraz, R.: An improved global
analysis of population distribution in proximity to active volcanoes,
1975–2015, ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Info., 8, 1–35,
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8080341, 2019. a
Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Allen, T., Pagani, M., Adams, J., Danciu,
L., Field, E., Fujiwara, H., Luco, N., Meletti, C., and Petersen, M.:
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State
of the Art and Future Challenges, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000653,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000653, 2020. a, b, c
Giaccio, B., Hajdas, I., Isaia, R., Deino, A., and Nomade, S.: High-precision
14C and 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Campanian Ignimbrite (Y-5)
reconcilies the time scales of climatic-cultural processes at 40ka,
Sci. Rep., 7, 1–10, 2017. a
Grezio, A., Babeyko, A., Baptista, M. A., Behrens, J., Costa, A., Davies, G.,
Geist, E. L., Glimsdal, S., Gonzales, F. I., Griffin, J., Harbitz, C. B.,
LeVeque, R. J., Lorito, S., Lohvolt, F., Omira, R., Mueller, C., Paris,
R., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Selva, J., Sorensen, M. B., and
Thio, H. K.: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: multiple sources and
global application, Rev. Geophys., 55, 1158–1198, 2017. a, b, c
Grunthal, G. and Wahlstrom, R.: New generation of probabilistic seismic hazard
assessment for the area Cologne/Aachen considering the uncertainties of the
input data, Nat. Hazards, 38, 159–176, 2006. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, B., Biavati, P., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers,
D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.: ERA5 hourly data on
pressure levels from 1959 to present, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2018. a
Jenkins, S. F., Biass, S., Williams, G. T., Hayes, J. L., Tennant, E., Yang, Q., Burgos, V., Meredith, E. S., Lerner, G. A., Syarifuddin, M., and Verolino, A.: Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022. a
Lirer, L. and Munno, R.: Il tufo giallo napoletano (Campi Flegrei), Period
Mineral, 44, 103–118, 1975. a
Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, S., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C. (Eds.): Global volcanic hazard and risk, Cambridge University Press, 389 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273, 2015. a
Macedonio, G., Costa, A., and Folch, A.: Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius:
Numerical simulations for hazard assessment, J. Volcanol.
Geoth. Res., 178, 366–377, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.08.014,
2008. a, b, c, d
Martinéz Montesinos, B., Titos Luzón, M., Sandri, L., Oleksandr, R.,
Cheptov, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., Barsotti, S., Selva, J., and Costa,
A.: On the feasibility and usefulness of high-performance computing in
probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: An application to tephra hazard
from Campi Flegrei, Frontiers in Earth Sciences, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.941789, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Marzocchi, W. and Bebbington, M. S.: Probabilistic eruption forecasting at
short and long time scales, B. Volcanol., 74, 1777–1805,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0633-x, 2012. a
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C., and Boschi, E.:
Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard
at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 109, B11,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003155, 2004. a, b
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., and Selva, J.: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for
long- and short-term erution forecasting, B. Volcanol., 70,
623–632, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y, 2007. a, b
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., and Selva, J.: BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for
long-term volcanic hazard assessment, B. Volcanol., 72, 705–716,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0357-8, 2010. a, b, c
Marzocchi, W., Newhall, C., and Gordon, W.: The scientific management of
volcanic crises, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 247,
181–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.08.016, 2012. a
Marzocchi, W., Selva, J., Costa, A., Sandrri, a., Tonini, R., and Macedonio,
G.: Global volcanic hazard and risk, chap. Tephra fall hazard for the
Neapolitan area, Cambridge University Press, 139–246, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316273, 2015. a
Marzocchi, W., Selva, J., and Jordan, T. H.: A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Massaro, S., Rossi, E., Sandri, L., Bondadonna, C., Selva, j., Moretti, R., and
Komorowski, J.-C.: Assessing hazard and potential impact associated with
volcanic ballistic projectiles: The example of la Soufriére de Guadeloupe
volcano (Lesser Antilles), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res.,
423, 107453, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107453, 2022. a
Mastin, L. G., Guffanti, M., Servranckx, R., Webley, P. W., Barsotti, S., Dean,
K. G., Durant, A. J., Ewert, J. W., Neri, A., Rose, W. I., Schneider, D. J.,
Siebert, Lee andStunder, B. J., Swanson, G. L., Tupper, A. C., Volentik, A.
C. M., and Waythomas, C. F.: A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic
source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion
during eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 186,
10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.01.008, 2009. a
Mele, D., Dellino, P., Sulpizio, R., and Braia, G.: A systematic investigation
on the aerodynamics of ash particles, J. Volcanol. Geoth.
Res., 203, 1–11, 2011. a
Mele, D., Costa, A., Dellino, P., Supizio, R., Dioguardi, F., Isaia, R., and
Macedonio, G.: Total grain size distribution of components of fallout
deposits and implications on magma fragmentation mechanisms: examples from
Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), B. Volcanol., 82, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-020-1368-8, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Menoni, S., Molinari, D., Parker, D., Ballio, F., and Tapsell, S.: Assessing
multifaceted vulnerability and resilience in order to design risk-mitigation,
Nat. Hazards, 64, 2057–2082, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0134-4, 2012. a
Miller, T. P. and Casadevall, T. J.: Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, chap. Volcanic ash
hazards to aviation, Elsevier, ISBN 9780080547985, 2000. a
Mingari, L., Folch, A., Prata, A. T., Pardini, F., Macedonio, G., and Costa, A.: Data assimilation of volcanic aerosol observations using FALL3D+PDAF, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1773–1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, 2022. a
Newhall, C. and Hobblit, R.: Constructing event trees for volcanic crises,
B. Volcanol., 64, 3–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450100173, 2002. a
OpenStreetMap contributors: Planet dump retrieved from
https://planet.osm.org (last access: 16 June 2023), https://www.openstreetmap.org (last access: 16 June 2023), 2022. a
Orsi, G., Gallo, G., and Zanchi, A.: Simple-shearing block resurgence in
caldera depressions. A model from Pantelleria and Ischia, J.
Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 47, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(91)90097-J, 1991. a
Orsi, G., D'Antonio, M., de Vita, S., and Gallo, G.: The Neapolitan Yellow
Tuff, a large-magnitude trachytic phreatoplinian eruption: eruptive dynamics,
magma withdrawal and caldera collapse, J. Volcanol. Geoth.
Res., 53, 275–287, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(92)90086-S, 1992. a
Orsi, G., De Vita, S., and Di Vito, M.: The restless, resurgent Campi Flegrei
nested caldera (Italy): constraints on its evolution and configuration,
J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 74, 179–214,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(96)00063-7, 1996. a, b, c, d
Orsi, G., Di Vito, M. A., and Isaia, R.: Volcanic hazard assessment at the
restless Campi Flegrei caldera, B. Volcanol., 66, 514–530,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-003-0336-4, 2004. a, b, c
Orsi, G., Di Vito, M. A., Selva, J., and Marzocchi, W.: Long-term forecast of
eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), Earth Planet.
Sci. Lett., 287, 265–276, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2009.08.013, 2009. a, b, c, d
Pareschi, M. T., Cavarra, L., Favalli, M., Giannini, F., and Meriggi, A.:
Natural Hazards, chap. GIS and Volcani Risk, Springer, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2386-2_16, 2000. a
Pfeiffer, T., Costa, A., and Macedonio, G.: A model for the numerical
simulation of tephra fall deposit, J. Volcanol. Geoth.
Res., 140, 273–294, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2004.09.001, 2005. a, b
Poret, M., Di Donato, M., Costa, A., Sulpizio, R., Mele, D., and Lucchi, F.:
Characterizing magma fragmentation and its relationship with eruptive tyles
of Somma-Vesuvius Volcano (Naples, Italy), J. Volcanol.
Geoth. Res., 393, 106683, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.106683, 2020. a
Primerano, P., Giordano, G., Costa, A., de Vita, S., and Di Vito, M. A.:
Reconstructing fallout features and dispersal of Cretaio Tephra (Ischia
Island, Italy) trough field data analysis and numerical modellinng:
Implications for hazard assessment, J. Volcanol. Geoth.
Res., 415, 107248, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107248, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Rampino, M. and Self, S.: Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, chap. Volcanism and biotic
extinctions, Elsevier, Hardback ISBN 9780123859389, eBook ISBN 9780123859396, 2000. a
Rosi, M., Principe, C., and Vecci, R.: The 1631 Vesuvius eruption. A
reconstruction based on historical and stratigraphical data, J.
Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 58, 151–182,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(93)90106-2, 1993. a, b
Sandri, Laura ad Jolly, G., Lindsay, J., Howe, T., and Marzocchi, W.: Combining
long- and short-term probabilistic volcacnic hazard assessment with
cost-benefit analysis to sipport decision making in a volcanic crisis from
the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, B. Volcanol., 74,
7005–723, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0556-y, 2012. a
Sandri, L., Tonini, R., Rouwet, D., Constantinescu, R., Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.,
Andrade, D., and Bernard, B.: Volanic Unrest, Chap. The need to quantify
hazard related to Non-magmatic unrest: from BET_EF to BET_UNREST, Volcanic Unrest, 63, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-58412-6, 2017. a
Sandri, L., Thouret, J.-C., Constantinescu, R., Biass, S., and Tonini, R.:
Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Perù), B.
Volcanol., 76, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-013-0771-9, 2014. a
Sandri, L., Tierz, P., Costa, A., and Marzocchi, W.: Probabilistic hazard from
pyroclastic density currents in the Neapolitan area (Southern Italy), J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 123, 3474–3500, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JB014890, 2018. a
Santacroce, R.: Somma-Vesuvius, Quaderni de la Ricerca Scientifica, 235 pp., ISSN 0556-9664, 1987. a
Santacroce, R., Cioni, R., Marianelli, P., Sbrana, A., Sulpizio, Roberto
ad Zanchetta, G., Donahue, D. J., and Joron, J. L.: Age and whole rock-glass
compositions of proximal pyroclastic from the major explosive eruptions of
Somma-Vesuvius: a review as a tool for distal tephrostratigraphy, J.
Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 177, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.06.009, 2008. a, b, c
Sbrana, A. and Toccaceli, R.: Carta Geologica della Regione Campania – Foglio
464 – Isola di Ischia, 216 pp. + 1 carta: 10.000, 2011. a
Sbrana, A., Marianelli, P., and Pasquini, G.: Volcanology of Ischia (Italy),
J. Maps, 14, 494–503, https://doi.org/10.1080/17445647.2018.1498811, 2018. a
Scandone, R., Bellucci, F., Lirer, L., and Rolandi, G.: The structure of the
Campanian Plain and the actiity of the Neapolitan volacanoes (Italy), J. Vocanol. Geoth. Res., 48, 1–31,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(91)90030-4, 1991. a
Selva, J., Costa, A., Marzocchi, W., and Sandri, L.: BET_VH: exploring the
influence f natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at
Campi Flegrei (Italy), B. Volcanol., 72, 717–733,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7, 2010. a, b, c, d
Selva, J., Orsi, G., Di Vito, M. A., Marzocchi, W., and Sandri, L.: Probability
hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy,
B. Volcanol., 74, 497–510, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2, 2012. a, b, c, d
Selva, J., Costa, A., Sandri, Laura Macedonio, G., and Marzocchi, W.:
Probabilistic short-term volcaninc hazard in phases of unrest: A case study
for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 119,
8805–8826, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011252, 2014. a, b, c
Selva, J., Tonini, R., Molinari, I., Tiberti, M. M., Romano, F., Grezio, A.,
Melini, D., Pianatesi, A., Basili, R., and Lorito, S.: Quantification of
source uncerainties in Seismic Probabilistc Tsunami Haard Analysis (SPTHA),
Geophys. J. Int., 205, 1780–1803, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw107,
2016. a
Selva, J., Acocella, V., Bisson, M., Caliro, S., Costa, A., Della Seta, M.,
De Martino, P., de Vita, S., Federico, C., Giordano, G., Martino, S., and
Cardaci, C.: ultiple natural hazards at volcanic islands: a review for the
Ischia volcano (Italy), J. Appl. Volcanol., 8, 1–43,
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-019-0086-4, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f
Selva, J., Sandri, L., Taroni, M., Sulpizio, R., Tierz, P., and Costa, A.: A
simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity
and enhances multivolcano hazard quantification, Sci. Adv., 8, 8.44, eabq4415,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abq4415, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o
Sevink, J., van Bergen, M. J., vn der Plicht, J., Feiken, H., Anastasia, C.,
and Huizinga, A.: Robust date for the Bronza Age Avellino eruption
(Somma-Vesuvius): 3945 ± 10 calBP (1995 ± 10 calBC), Quaternary Sci.
Rev., 30, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.02.001, 2011. a
Sigurdsson, H. and Carey, S.: The Natural History of Pompeii, chap. The
Eruption of Vesuvius in A.D: 79, 332–387, Oxford University Press, 37-64. ISBN 0521800544, 9780521800549, 1985. a
Small, C. and Naumann, T.: The global distribution of human population and
recent volcanism, Global Environ. Change Part B,
3, 93–109, https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.2001.0309, 2001. a
Spence, R. J. S., Kelman, I., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., and Petrazzuoli, S.: Residential building and occupant vulnerability to tephra fall, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 477–494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-477-2005, 2005. a, b, c
Sulpizio, R., Mele, D., Dellino, P., and La Volpe, L.: A complex,
Subplinian-type eruption from low-viscosity, phonolitic to tephri-phonolithic
magma: the AD 472 (Pollena) eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, Italy, B.
Volcanol., 67, 743–767, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-005-0414-x, 2005. a, b
Sulpizio, R., Zanchetta, G., Demi, F., Di Vito, M. A., Pareschi, M. T., and
Santacroce, R.: Neogene-Quaternary continental marin volcanism: A perspective
from México, chap. The Holocene syneruptive volcaniclastic debris flows in
the Vesuvian area: Geological data as a guide for hazard assessment, The
Geol. Soc. Am.,
402, 203–221, https://doi.org/10.1130/2006.2402(10), 2006. a
Sulpizio, R., Bonasia, R., Dellino, P., Mele, D., Di Vito, M. A., and La Volpe,
L.: The Pomici di Avellino ruption of Somma-Vesuvius (3.9 ka BP). Part II:
sedimentology and physical volcanonology of pyroclastic density current
deposits, B. Volcanol., 72, 559–577,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-009-0340-4, 2010. a, b, c
Sulpizio, R., Folch, A., Costa, A., Scaini, C., and Dellino, P.: Hazard
assessment of far-range volcanic ash dispersal from a violent Strombolian
eruption at Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Naples, Itay: implications on civil
aviation, B. Volcanol., 74, 2205–2218,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0656-3, 2012. a, b, c, d
Sulpizio, R., Zanchetta, G., Caron, B., Dellino, P., Mele, D., Giaccio, B.,
Insinga, D., Paterne, M., Siani, G., Costa, A., Macedonio, G., and
Santacroce, R.: Volcanic ash hazard in the Central Mediterranean assessed
from geological data, B. Volcanol., 76, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-014-0866-y, 2014.
a
Suzuki, T.: A theoretical model for dispersion of tephra, Arc Volcanism:
Physics and Tectonics, 113, 95–113, 1983. a
Swords-Daniels, V.: Living with Volcanic Risk: The consequences of, and
Response to, ongoing volcanic ashfall from a social infrastructures systems
perspective on Montserrat, New Zealand J. Psychol., 40, 131, 2011. a
Tesche, M., Glantz, P., Johansson, C., Norman, M., Hiebsch, A., Ansmann, A.,
Althausen, A., Engelmann, R., and Seifert, P.: Volcanic ash over Scandinavia
originating from the Grímsvo otn eruptions in May 2011, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017090, 2012. a
Thompson, M. A. and Lindsay, Jan M. an Gaillard, J.: The influence of
probabilistic volcanic hazard map properties on hazard communication, J. Appl. Volcanol., 4, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-015-0023-0, 2015. a
Titos, M., Martínez Montesinos, B., Barsotti, S., Sandri, L., Folch, A., Mingari, L., Macedonio, G., and Costa, A.: Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022. a
Tonini, R., Sandri, L., and Thompson, M. A.: PyBethVH: A Python tool for
probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and for Generation of Bayesian
hazard curves and maps, Comput. Geosci., 79, 38–46,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2015.02.017, 2015. a, b
Vezzoli, L. and Barberi, F.: Progetto finalizzato geodinamica: monografie
finali. X: Island of Ischia, Quaderni de la RIcerca Scientifica,
114, 1–123, 1988. a
Wilson, G., Wilson, T. M., Deligne, N. I., and Cole, J. W.: Volcanic hazard
impacts to critical infrastructures: A review, J. Volcanol.
Geoth. Res., 286, 148–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.08.030,
2014. a
Wilson, T. M., Stewart, C., Sword-Daniels, V., Leonard, G. S., Johnston, D. M.,
Cole, J. W., Wardman, J., Wilson, G., and Bernard, S. T.: Volcanic ash
impacts on critical infrastructures, Phys. Chem. Earth,
Parts A/B/C, 45–46, 5–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.06.006, 2012. a, b, c
Zuccaro, G., Leone, M. F., Del Cogliano, D., and Sgroi, A.: Economic impact of
explosive volcanic eruptions: a simulation-based assessment model applied to
Campania region volcanoes, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res.,
226, 1–15, 2013. a
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint