Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 23 Jun 2023
| 23 Jun 2023
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Manuel Stocchi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Beatriz Martínez Montesinos
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Laura Sandri
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Jacopo Selva
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Università degli Studi di Napoli, Federico II, Naples, Italy
Roberto Sulpizio
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Biagio Giaccio
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Massimiliano Moscatelli
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Edoardo Peronace
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Marco Nocentini
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
Dipartimento per il Servizio Geologico d'Italia, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Rome, Italy
Roberto Isaia
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Manuel Titos Luzón
Signal Processing and Machine Learning, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
Pierfrancesco Dellino
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, Università degli Studi di Bari, Bari, Italy
Giuseppe Naso
Dipartimento di Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy
Antonio Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
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Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
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Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Giovanni Zanchetta, Adele Bertini, Gian Paolo Cavinato, Roberto de Franco, Fabio Florindo, David A. Hodell, Thomas A. Neubauer, Sebastien Nomade, Alison Pereira, Laura Sadori, Sara Satolli, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Paul Albert, Paolo Boncio, Cindy De Jonge, Alexander Francke, Christine Heim, Alessia Masi, Marta Marchegiano, Helen M. Roberts, Anders Noren, and the MEME team
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In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
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We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.
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Two novel techniques for ensemble-based data assimilation, suitable for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions such as tephra deposit mass loading, are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. The deposit spatial distribution and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
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We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Federico Mori, Amerigo Mendicelli, Gaetano Falcone, Gianluca Acunzo, Rose Line Spacagna, Giuseppe Naso, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
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This work addresses the problem of the ground motion estimation over large areas as an important tool for seismic-risk reduction policies. In detail, the near-real-time estimation of ground motion is a key issue for emergency system management. Starting from this consideration, the present work proposes the application of a machine learning approach to produce ground motion maps, using nine input proxies. Such proxies consider seismological, geophysical, and morphological parameters.
Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Andrew T. Prata, Federica Pardini, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
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We present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to improve forecasting of volcanic aerosols. This system can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing resources. We found a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when satellite retrievals are continuously assimilated. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from this research.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
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This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
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Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Andrew T. Prata, Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 409–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, 2021
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This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details new model applications and validation of FALL3D-8.0 using satellite, ground-deposit load and radionuclide data.
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Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in...
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