Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023
Research article
 | 
22 Jun 2023
Research article |  | 22 Jun 2023

Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas

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Cited articles

Avolio, E. and Miglietta, M. M.: Tornadoes in the Tyrrhenian regions of the Italian peninsula: The case study of 28 July 2019, Atmos. Res., 278, 106285, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106285, 2022. a
Bajo, M., Ferrarin, C., Umgiesser, G., Bonometto, A., and Coraci, E.: Modelling the barotropic sea level in the Mediterranean Sea using data assimilation, Ocean Sci., 19, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, 2023. a
Barnard, P. L., Erikson, L. H., Foxgrover, A. C., Hart, J. A. F., Limber, P., O'Neill, A. C., van Ormondt, M., Vitousek, S., Wood, N., Hayden, M. K., and Jones, J. M.: Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change, Scientific Reports, 9, 4309, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40742-z, 2019. a, b
Bengtsson, L., Andrae, U., Aspelien, T., Batrak, Y., Calvo, J., de Rooy, W., Gleeson, E., Hansen-Sass, B., Homleid, M., Hortal, M., Ivarsson, K.-I., Lenderink, G., Niemelä, S., Nielsen, K. P., Onvlee, J., Rontu, L., Samuelsson, P., Muñoz, D. S., Subias, A., Tijm, S., Toll, V., Yang, X., and Ødegaard Køltzow, M.: The HARMONIE–AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP System, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 1919–1935, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0417.1, 2017. a
Bentivoglio, R., Isufi, E., Jonkman, S. N., and Taormina, R.: Deep learning methods for flood mapping: a review of existing applications and future research directions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4345–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4345-2022, 2022. a
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Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
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