Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

Ferrarin, Christian; Pantillon, Florian; Davolio, Silvio; Bajo, Marco; Miglietta, Mario Marcello; Avolio, Elenio; Carrió, Diego S.; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Sanchez, Claudio; Patlakas, Platon; González-Alemán, Juan Jesús; Flaounas, Emmanouil

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 6

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Articles | Volume 23, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 6

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Research article

22 Jun 2023

Research article |

| 22 Jun 2023

Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas

Christian Ferrarin

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

c.ferrarin@ismar.cnr.it

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1172-1463

CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR - Institute of Marine Sciences, Venice, Italy

Florian Pantillon

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7205-4428

Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France

Silvio Davolio

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8704-1814

CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISAC - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy

Marco Bajo

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5969-6386

CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR - Institute of Marine Sciences, Venice, Italy

Mario Marcello Miglietta

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2898-1595

CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISAC - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Padua, Italy

Elenio Avolio

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9692-6208

CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISAC - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Lamezia Terme, Italy

Diego S. Carrió

Department of Physics, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma, Spain

Ioannis Pytharoulis

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5865-5216

Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

Claudio Sanchez

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5069-6849

Met Office, Exeter, UK

Platon Patlakas

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3572-6851

Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece

Juan Jesús González-Alemán

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5940-7356

Spanish State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain

Emmanouil Flaounas

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9769-7817

Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece

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PDF: 335
XML: 86
Total: 1,755
BibTeX: 75
EndNote: 67

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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 11 Jan 2023)

Total article views: 1,227 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
954	211	62	1,227	68	63

HTML: 954
PDF: 211
XML: 62
Total: 1,227
BibTeX: 68
EndNote: 63

Views and downloads (calculated since 22 Jun 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2023	108	24	2	134
Jul 2023	118	20	2	140
Aug 2023	45	8	6	59
Sep 2023	56	22	2	80
Oct 2023	34	16	1	51
Nov 2023	35	8	5	48
Dec 2023	25	11	1	37
Jan 2024	56	12	3	71
Feb 2024	18	11	2	31
Mar 2024	25	7	1	33
Apr 2024	25	4	4	33
May 2024	17	8	4	29
Jun 2024	55	6	2	63
Jul 2024	32	6	5	43
Aug 2024	28	2	7	37
Sep 2024	39	5	6	50
Oct 2024	30	5	1	36
Nov 2024	13	2	0	15
Dec 2024	11	2	0	13
Jan 2025	39	10	0	49
Feb 2025	23	6	1	30
Mar 2025	28	5	3	36
Apr 2025	19	4	0	23
May 2025	52	6	0	58
Jun 2025	23	1	4	28

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 22 Jun 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2023	108	24	2	134
Jul 2023	118	20	2	140
Aug 2023	45	8	6	59
Sep 2023	56	22	2	80
Oct 2023	34	16	1	51
Nov 2023	35	8	5	48
Dec 2023	25	11	1	37
Jan 2024	56	12	3	71
Feb 2024	18	11	2	31
Mar 2024	25	7	1	33
Apr 2024	25	4	4	33
May 2024	17	8	4	29
Jun 2024	55	6	2	63
Jul 2024	32	6	5	43
Aug 2024	28	2	7	37
Sep 2024	39	5	6	50
Oct 2024	30	5	1	36
Nov 2024	13	2	0	15
Dec 2024	11	2	0	13
Jan 2025	39	10	0	49
Feb 2025	23	6	1	30
Mar 2025	28	5	3	36
Apr 2025	19	4	0	23
May 2025	52	6	0	58
Jun 2025	23	1	4	28

Total article views: 528 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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380	124	24	528	7	4

HTML: 380
PDF: 124
XML: 24
Total: 528
BibTeX: 7
EndNote: 4

Views and downloads (calculated since 11 Jan 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2023	108	24	2	134
Jul 2023	118	20	2	140
Aug 2023	45	8	6	59
Sep 2023	56	22	2	80
Oct 2023	34	16	1	51
Nov 2023	35	8	5	48
Dec 2023	25	11	1	37
Jan 2024	56	12	3	71
Feb 2024	18	11	2	31
Mar 2024	25	7	1	33
Apr 2024	25	4	4	33
May 2024	17	8	4	29
Jun 2024	55	6	2	63
Jul 2024	32	6	5	43
Aug 2024	28	2	7	37
Sep 2024	39	5	6	50
Oct 2024	30	5	1	36
Nov 2024	13	2	0	15
Dec 2024	11	2	0	13
Jan 2025	39	10	0	49
Feb 2025	23	6	1	30
Mar 2025	28	5	3	36
Apr 2025	19	4	0	23
May 2025	52	6	0	58
Jun 2025	23	1	4	28

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 11 Jan 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2023	108	24	2	134
Jul 2023	118	20	2	140
Aug 2023	45	8	6	59
Sep 2023	56	22	2	80
Oct 2023	34	16	1	51
Nov 2023	35	8	5	48
Dec 2023	25	11	1	37
Jan 2024	56	12	3	71
Feb 2024	18	11	2	31
Mar 2024	25	7	1	33
Apr 2024	25	4	4	33
May 2024	17	8	4	29
Jun 2024	55	6	2	63
Jul 2024	32	6	5	43
Aug 2024	28	2	7	37
Sep 2024	39	5	6	50
Oct 2024	30	5	1	36
Nov 2024	13	2	0	15
Dec 2024	11	2	0	13
Jan 2025	39	10	0	49
Feb 2025	23	6	1	30
Mar 2025	28	5	3	36
Apr 2025	19	4	0	23
May 2025	52	6	0	58
Jun 2025	23	1	4	28

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Total article views: 1,755 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,721 with geography defined and 34 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 1,227 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,185 with geography defined and 42 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 528 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 528 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	483	27
Italy	2	153	8
Greece	3	132	7
China	4	109	6
France	5	108	6

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	365	29
China	2	94	7
Greece	3	86	7
Italy	4	73	5
Germany	5	66	5

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	118	22
Italy	2	80	15
France	3	56	10
Greece	4	46	8
Germany	5	33	6


Total:	0
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483


Total:	0
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365


Total:	0
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118

Cited

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

10 citations as recorded by crossref.

ARCHIMEDE—An Innovative Web-GIS Platform for the Study of Medicanes A. Kushabaha et al. 10.3390/rs16142552
Recent innovations in satellite-based applications and their impacts on tropical cyclone analyses and forecasts C. Velden et al. 10.1016/j.jemets.2025.100011
The impact of preceding convection on the development of Medicane Ianos and the sensitivity to sea surface temperature C. Sánchez et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024
Aeolus Data Validation for an Extreme Precipitation Event in Greece with the COSMO NWP Model E. Avgoustoglou et al. 10.3390/w15213820
Assimilating Aeolus Satellite Wind Data on a Regional Level: Application in a Mediterranean Cyclone Using the WRF Model C. Stathopoulos et al. 10.3390/atmos14121811
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos F. Pantillon et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024
A Comprehensive AI Approach for Monitoring and Forecasting Medicanes Development J. Martinez-Amaya et al. 10.3390/cli12120220
Sea level variability and coastal inundation over the northeastern Mediterranean Sea Y. Androulidakis et al. 10.1080/21664250.2023.2246286
Ocean-wave-atmosphere coupling effect in Medicane forecasting J. Karagiorgos et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107418
Characterization of extreme wave fields during Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones S. Davison et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1268830

10 citations as recorded by crossref.

ARCHIMEDE—An Innovative Web-GIS Platform for the Study of Medicanes A. Kushabaha et al. 10.3390/rs16142552
Recent innovations in satellite-based applications and their impacts on tropical cyclone analyses and forecasts C. Velden et al. 10.1016/j.jemets.2025.100011
The impact of preceding convection on the development of Medicane Ianos and the sensitivity to sea surface temperature C. Sánchez et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024
Aeolus Data Validation for an Extreme Precipitation Event in Greece with the COSMO NWP Model E. Avgoustoglou et al. 10.3390/w15213820
Assimilating Aeolus Satellite Wind Data on a Regional Level: Application in a Mediterranean Cyclone Using the WRF Model C. Stathopoulos et al. 10.3390/atmos14121811
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos F. Pantillon et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024
A Comprehensive AI Approach for Monitoring and Forecasting Medicanes Development J. Martinez-Amaya et al. 10.3390/cli12120220
Sea level variability and coastal inundation over the northeastern Mediterranean Sea Y. Androulidakis et al. 10.1080/21664250.2023.2246286
Ocean-wave-atmosphere coupling effect in Medicane forecasting J. Karagiorgos et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107418
Characterization of extreme wave fields during Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones S. Davison et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1268830

Latest update: 15 Jun 2025

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The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.

The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea...

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