Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 May 2023
Research article |
| 15 May 2023
| 15 May 2023
The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea
Elin Andrée
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Martin Stendel
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3055–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025, 2025
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With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it is crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
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Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Ocean Sci., 20, 21–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-21-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-21-2024, 2024
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Coastal floods occur due to extreme sea levels (ESLs) which are difficult to predict because of their rarity. Long records of accurate sea levels at the local scale increase ESL predictability. Here, we apply a machine learning technique to extend sea level observation data in the past based on a neighbouring tide gauge. We compared the results with a linear model. We conclude that both models give reasonable results with a better accuracy towards the extremes for the machine learning model.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8613–8638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022, 2022
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H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
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Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
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Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Jacob L. Høyer, Kristine S. Madsen, Rasmus T. Tonboe, Gorm Dybkjær, and Sotirios Skarpalezos
The Cryosphere, 15, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3035-2021, 2021
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The Arctic region is responding heavily to climate change, and yet, the air temperature of Arctic ice-covered areas is heavily under-sampled when it comes to in situ measurements. This paper presents a method for estimating daily mean 2 m air temperatures (T2m) in the Arctic from satellite observations of skin temperature, providing spatially detailed observations of the Arctic. The satellite-derived T2m product covers clear-sky snow and ice surfaces in the Arctic for the period 2000–2009.
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Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify...
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