Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea
Elin Andrée
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Martin Stendel
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
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Cited
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Extending multi-criteria coastal vulnerability assessment to low-lying inland areas: Examples from Estonia, eastern Baltic Sea M. Barzehkar et al. 10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109014
- Coinciding storm surge and wave setup: A regional assessment of sea level rise impact J. Su et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.117885
- Reconstruction of Baltic Gridded Sea Levels from Tide Gauge and Altimetry Observations Using Spatiotemporal Statistics from Reanalysis J. Elken et al. 10.3390/rs16152702
- Initial soil moisture and soil texture control the impact of storm surges in coastal forests G. Nordio et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175911
- Incorporating compound flood events in the weather service value chain J. Su et al. 10.1038/s44304-025-00077-4
- Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea M. Lorenz & U. Gräwe 10.5194/os-19-1753-2023
- Technical note: Extending sea level time series for the analysis of extremes with statistical methods and neighbouring station data K. Dubois et al. 10.5194/os-20-21-2024
- On-demand coastal modelling with two-way nesting V. Frishfelds et al. 10.1007/s10236-025-01670-x
- Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change M. Hieronymus et al. 10.16993/tellusa.4068
- Integrating historical storm surge events into flood risk security in the Copenhagen region J. Su et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100713
- Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea M. Lorenz et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025
- Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment K. Dubois et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Extending multi-criteria coastal vulnerability assessment to low-lying inland areas: Examples from Estonia, eastern Baltic Sea M. Barzehkar et al. 10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109014
- Coinciding storm surge and wave setup: A regional assessment of sea level rise impact J. Su et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.117885
- Reconstruction of Baltic Gridded Sea Levels from Tide Gauge and Altimetry Observations Using Spatiotemporal Statistics from Reanalysis J. Elken et al. 10.3390/rs16152702
- Initial soil moisture and soil texture control the impact of storm surges in coastal forests G. Nordio et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175911
- Incorporating compound flood events in the weather service value chain J. Su et al. 10.1038/s44304-025-00077-4
- Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea M. Lorenz & U. Gräwe 10.5194/os-19-1753-2023
- Technical note: Extending sea level time series for the analysis of extremes with statistical methods and neighbouring station data K. Dubois et al. 10.5194/os-20-21-2024
- On-demand coastal modelling with two-way nesting V. Frishfelds et al. 10.1007/s10236-025-01670-x
- Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change M. Hieronymus et al. 10.16993/tellusa.4068
- Integrating historical storm surge events into flood risk security in the Copenhagen region J. Su et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100713
- Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea M. Lorenz et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025
- Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment K. Dubois et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify...
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