Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 07 Dec 2022
| 07 Dec 2022
Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networks
Panagiotis Athanasiou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology,
University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
Ap van Dongeren
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Department of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft
Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands
Alessio Giardino
Water Sector Group, Sustainable Development and Climate Change
Department, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Michalis Vousdoukas
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Seville, Spain
Jose A. A. Antolinez
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and
Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Roshanka Ranasinghe
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology,
University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
Department of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft
Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3433–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure, and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here, we provide 80 indicators of this kind at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset provides the spatial distribution of nearshore slopes at a resolution of 1 km along the global coastline. The calculation was based on available global topo-bathymetric datasets and ocean wave reanalysis. The calculated slopes show skill in capturing the spatial variability of the nearshore slopes when compared against local observations. The importance of this variability is presented with a global coastal retreat assessment for an arbitrary sea level rise scenario.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Maarten van Ormondt, Tim Leijnse, Roel de Goede, Kees Nederhoff, and Ap van Dongeren
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 843–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate flood risk assessments are crucial for storm protection. To achieve efficiency, computational costs must be minimized. This paper introduces a novel subgrid approach for linear inertial equations (LIEs) with bed level and friction variations, implemented in the Super-Fast INundation of CoastS (SFINCS) model. Pre-processed lookup tables enhance simulation precision with lower costs. Validations show significant accuracy improvement even at coarser resolutions.
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Jacopo Alessandri, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Francesco Ferrari, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1513–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show the development of high-resolution simulations of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea employing different atmospheric forcing data and physical configurations. Traditional metrics favor a simulation forced by a coarser database and employing a less sophisticated setup. Closer examination allows us to identify a baroclinic model forced by a high-resolution dataset as being better able to capture the variability and peak values of the storm surge.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3433–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure, and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here, we provide 80 indicators of this kind at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, José Antonio Álvarez Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1789–1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting tropical cyclones and their flooding impact is challenging. Our research introduces the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF), enhancing cyclone predictions despite uncertainties. TC-FF generates global wind and flood scenarios, valuable even in data-limited regions. Applied to cases like Cyclone Idai, it showcases potential in bettering disaster preparation, marking progress in handling cyclone threats.
Vincent Regard, Rafael Almar, Marcan Graffin, Sébastien Carretier, Edward Anthony, Roshanka Ranasinghe, and Pierre Maffre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-165, 2023
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
The erosion of sandy beaches affects human activities and ecosystems. Research has mainly focused on sea level and wave changes, and while localized sediment research is abundant, the global effect of reduced fluvial sediment supply remains unexplored. This study presents a global sediment model that demonstrates the significant impact of river dams on beach erosion worldwide. Sediment can travel long distances via wave-induced transport, often away from river outlets.
D. Hulskemper, K. Anders, J. A. Á. Antolínez, M. Kuschnerus, B. Höfle, and R. Lindenbergh
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-2-W2-2022, 53–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-2-W2-2022-53-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-2-W2-2022-53-2022, 2022
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Bram C. van Prooijen, Marion F. S. Tissier, Floris P. de Wit, Stuart G. Pearson, Laura B. Brakenhoff, Marcel C. G. van Maarseveen, Maarten van der Vegt, Jan-Willem Mol, Frank Kok, Harriette Holzhauer, Jebbe J. van der Werf, Tommer Vermaas, Matthijs Gawehn, Bart Grasmeijer, Edwin P. L. Elias, Pieter Koen Tonnon, Giorgio Santinelli, José A. A. Antolínez, Paul Lodewijk M. de Vet, Ad J. H. M. Reniers, Zheng Bing Wang, Cornelis den Heijer, Carola van Gelder-Maas, Rinse J. A. Wilmink, Cor A. Schipper, and Harry de Looff
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2775–2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To protect the Dutch coastal zone, sand is nourished and disposed at strategic locations. Simple questions like where, how, how much and when to nourish the sand are not straightforward to answer. This is especially the case around the Wadden Sea islands where sediment transport pathways are complicated. Therefore, a large-scale field campaign has been carried out on the seaward side of Ameland Inlet. Sediment transport, hydrodynamics, morphology and fauna in the bed were measured.
Hieu Ngo, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Chris Zevenbergen, Ebru Kirezci, Dikman Maheng, Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan, and Assela Pathirana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-242, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Estimation of flood hazard in cities is a time-consuming and computationally expensive exercise. Strategic use of simplified hydraulic models and selective use of detailed hydraulic models for specific flood events can minimize the efforts. Flood hazard was calculated for climate change and land subsidence scenarios in Can Tho, Mekong Delta. Reduction in groundwater extraction – arresting land subsidence – along with the rehabilitation of urban drains can mitigate floods even under climate change.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt, and Deepak Vatvani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclone wind models are often used in engineering applications. However, these models lack the required accuracy when the size of the tropical cyclone is not known. In this paper, new relationships are derived to describe parameters affecting the size. These relationships are formulated using observed data and make it possible to estimate tropical cyclone size and to use this information in tropical cyclone wind models to obtain more reliable estimates of the tropical cyclone winds.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset provides the spatial distribution of nearshore slopes at a resolution of 1 km along the global coastline. The calculation was based on available global topo-bathymetric datasets and ocean wave reanalysis. The calculated slopes show skill in capturing the spatial variability of the nearshore slopes when compared against local observations. The importance of this variability is presented with a global coastal retreat assessment for an arbitrary sea level rise scenario.
Pedro D. Barrera Crespo, Erik Mosselman, Alessio Giardino, Anke Becker, Willem Ottevanger, Mohamed Nabi, and Mijail Arias-Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2763–2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Guayaquil, the commercial capital of Ecuador, is located along the Guayas River. The city is among the most vulnerable cities to future flooding ascribed to climate change. Fluvial sedimentation is seen as one of the factors contributing to flooding. This paper describes the dominant processes in the river and the effects of past interventions in the overall sediment budget. This is essential to plan and design effective mitigation measures to face the latent risk that threatens Guayaquil.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We examine sources of epistemic uncertainty in coastal flood risk models. We find that uncertainty from sea level estimations can be higher than that related to greenhouse gas emissions or climate prediction errors. Of comparable importance is information on coastal protection levels and the topography. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the last two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of estimating coastal flood risks at large scales.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Isavela N. Monioudi, Adonis F. Velegrakis, Antonis E. Chatzipavlis, Anastasios Rigos, Theophanis Karambas, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Thomas Hasiotis, Nikoletta Koukourouvli, Pascal Peduzzi, Eva Manoutsoglou, Serafim E. Poulos, and Michael B. Collins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 449–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to record the spatial characteristics of the Aegean island beaches (Greece) and assess the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) impacts under different scenarios. Results suggest that Aegean beaches may be particularly vulnerable to SLRs, where severe impacts which could be devastating are projected by 2100. Appropriate coastal "setback zone" policies should be adopted, as they form a significant environmental and economic resource.
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Francesco Dottori, Alessio Giardino, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessandra Bianchi, Peter Salamon, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the changing climate. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining the contribution of waves, improved inundation modeling and an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded whenever new and more accurate data become available.
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Tsunami detection methods for ocean-bottom pressure gauges
Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of Batukaras, a tourism village in Indonesia
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Super Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Untangling the Waves: Decomposing Extreme Sea Levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with a machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths along different coastal regions. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Cited articles
Abadi, M., Barham, P., Chen, J., Chen, Z., Davis, A., Dean, J., Devin, M., Ghemawat, S., Irving, G., Isard, M., Kudlur, M., Levenberg, J., Monga, R., Moore, S., Murray, D. G., Steiner, B., Tucker, P., Vasudevan, V., Warden, P., Wicke, M., Yu, Y., and Zheng, X.: TensorFlow: A system for large-scale machine learning, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1605.08695, 31 May 2016.
Almar, R., Ranasinghe, R., Bergsma, E. W. J., Diaz, H., Melet, A., Papa, F.,
Vousdoukas, M., Athanasiou, P., Dada, O., Almeida, L. P., and Kestenare, E.:
A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for
potential coastal overtopping, Nat. Commun., 12, 3775,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9, 2021.
Antolínez, J. A. A., Méndez, F. J., Anderson, D., Ruggiero, P., and
Kaminsky, G. M.: Predicting Climate-Driven Coastlines With a Simple and
Efficient Multiscale Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 124,
1596–1624, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004790, 2019.
Arcadis/Deltares: Validation of dune erosion model XBeach. Development of
“BOI Sandy Coasts,” Tech. report D10029117:2.0., 2022.
Athanasiou, P., de Boer, W., Yoo, J., Ranasinghe, R., and Reniers, A.:
Analysing decadal-scale crescentic bar dynamics using satellite imagery: A
case study at Anmok beach, South Korea, Mar. Geol., 405, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2018.07.013, 2018.
Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez,
J. A. A. A., and Ranasinghe, R.: A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune
Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case
Study at the Dutch Coast, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 1–20,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.747754, 2021.
Beuzen, T., Splinter, K. D., Turner, I. L., Harley, M. D., and Marshall, L.:
Predicting storm erosion on sandy coastlines using a Bayesian network, in:
Australasian Coasts and Ports 2017 Conference, 21–23 June 2017, Cairns, Qld., 2017.
Beuzen, T., Splinter, K. D., Marshall, L. A., Turner, I. L., Harley, M. D.,
and Palmsten, M. L.: Bayesian Networks in coastal engineering:
Distinguishing descriptive and predictive applications, Coast. Eng.,
135, 16–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2018.01.005, 2018.
Beuzen, T., Harley, M. D., Splinter, K. D., and Turner, I. L.: Controls of
Variability in Berm and Dune Storm Erosion, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf.,
124, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005184, 2019.
Bloemendaal, N., de Moel, H., Martinez, A. B., Muis, S., Haigh, I. D., van
der Wiel, K., Haarsma, R. J., Ward, P. J., Roberts, M. J., Dullaart, J. C.
M., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: A globally consistent local-scale assessment of
future tropical cyclone risk., Sci. Adv., 8, eabm8438,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm8438, 2022.
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001.
Camus, P., Mendez, F. J., Medina, R., and Cofiño, A. S.: Analysis of
clustering and selection algorithms for the study of multivariate wave
climate, Coast. Eng., 58, 453–462,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2011.02.003, 2011.
Castelle, B., Marieu, V., Bujan, S., Splinter, K. D., Robinet, A.,
Sénéchal, N., and Ferreira, S.: Impact of the winter 2013–2014
series of severe Western Europe storms on a double-barred sandy coast: Beach
and dune erosion and megacusp embayments, Geomorphology, 238, 135–148,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.006, 2015.
Charbonneau, B. R., Wootton, L. S., Wnek, J. P., Langley, J. A., and Posner,
M. A.: A species effect on storm erosion: Invasive sedge stabilized dunes
more than native grass during Hurricane Sandy, edited by L. Souza, J. Appl.
Ecol., 54, 1385–1394, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12846, 2017.
Chollet, F., et al.: Keras,
https://github.com/fchollet/keras (last access: 15 December 2021), 2015.
Chondros, M., Metallinos, A., Papadimitriou, A., Memos, C., and Tsoukala, V.: A Coastal Flood Early-Warning System Based on Offshore Sea State Forecasts and Artificial Neural Networks, JMSE, 9, 1272, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9111272, 2021.
Cohn, N., Ruggiero, P., de Vries, S., and Kaminsky, G. M.: New Insights on
Coastal Foredune Growth: The Relative Contributions of Marine and Aeolian
Processes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4965–4973,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077836, 2018.
Cohn, N., Ruggiero, P., García-Medina, G., Anderson, D., Serafin, K. A.,
and Biel, R.: Environmental and morphologic controls on wave-induced dune
response, Geomorphology, 329, 108–128,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.12.023, 2019.
Deltares/Arcadis: BOI Standaard instelling. Kalibratie van de XBeach model
parameters, Tech. report 11206818-018-GEO-0006, 2022 (in Dutch).
de Winter, R. C. and Ruessink, B. G.: Sensitivity analysis of climate change
impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast, Clim.
Change, 141, 685–701, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1922-3, 2017.
de Winter, R. C., Gongriep, F., and Ruessink, B. G.: Observations and
modeling of alongshore variability in dune erosion at Egmond aan Zee, the
Netherlands, Coast. Eng., 99, 167–175,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.02.005, 2015.
Duo, E., Sanuy, M., Jiménez, J. A., and Ciavola, P.: How good are symmetric triangular synthetic storms to represent real events for coastal hazard modelling, Coastal Eng., 159, 103728, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103728, 2020.
Duveiller, G., Fasbender, D., and Meroni, M.: Revisiting the concept of a
symmetric index of agreement for continuous datasets, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6,
19401, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep19401, 2016.
ESRI: Light Gray Canvas, Basemap,
https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=8b3d38c0819547faa83f7b7aca80bd76
(last access: 3 March 2021), 2011.
Giardino, A., Santinelli, G., and Vuik, V.: Coastal state indicators to
assess the morphological development of the Holland coast due to natural and
anthropogenic pressure factors, Ocean Coast. Manag., 87, 93–101,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.09.015, 2014.
Giardino, A., Diamantidou, E., Pearson, S., Santinelli, G., and Den Heijer,
K.: A Regional Application of Bayesian Modeling for Coastal Erosion and Sand
Nourishment Management, Water, 11, 61, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010061,
2019.
Güner, H. A. A., Yüksel, Y., and Çevik, E. Ö.: Longshore
sediment transport-field data and estimations using neural networks,
numerical model, and empirical models, J. Coast. Res., 29, 311–324,
https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-11-00074.1, 2013.
Gutierrez, B. T., Plant, N. G., and Thieler, E. R.: A Bayesian network to
predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth
Surf., 116, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JF001891, 2011.
Harley, M. D., Masselink, G., Ruiz de Alegría-Arzaburu, A., Valiente,
N. G., and Scott, T.: Single extreme storm sequence can offset decades of
shoreline retreat projected to result from sea-level rise, Commun. Earth
Environ., 3, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00437-2, 2022.
Hashemi, M. R., Ghadampour, Z. and Neill, S. P.: Using an artificial neural
network to model seasonal changes in beach profiles, Ocean Eng., 37(14–15),
1345–1356, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2010.07.004, 2010.
Houser, C., Hapke, C., and Hamilton, S.: Controls on coastal dune morphology,
shoreline erosion and barrier island response to extreme storms,
Geomorphology, 100, 223–240,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.12.007, 2008.
Kabiri-Samani, A. R., Aghaee-Tarazjani, J., Borghei, S. M., and Jeng, D. S.:
Application of neural networks and fuzzy logic models to long-shore sediment
transport, Appl. Soft Comput. J., 11, 2880–2887,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2010.11.021, 2011.
Kim, S. W., Melby, J. A., Nadal-Caraballo, N. C., and Ratcliff, J.: A
time-dependent surrogate model for storm surge prediction based on an
artificial neural network using high-fidelity synthetic hurricane modeling,
Nat. Hazards, 76, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1508-6,
2015.
Kingma, D. P. and Ba, J.: Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1412.6980, 29 January 2017.
Kömürcü, M. I., Kömür, M. A., Akpinar, A.,
Özölçer, I. H., and Yüksek, Ö.: Prediction of offshore
bar-shape parameters resulted by cross-shore sediment transport using neural
network, Appl. Ocean Res., 40, 74–82,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2013.01.003, 2013.
Leaman, C. K., Harley, M. D., Splinter, K. D., Thran, M. C., Kinsela, M. A.,
and Turner, I. L.: A storm hazard matrix combining coastal flooding and
beach erosion, Coast. Eng., 170, 104001,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2021.104001, 2021.
Li, F., van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., Ranasinghe, R., Callaghan, D. P., and
Jongejan, R. B.: Probabilistic modelling of extreme storms along the Dutch
coast, Coast. Eng., 86, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.009, 2014a.
Li, F., van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., Vrijling, J. K., Callaghan, D. P.,
Jongejan, R. B., and Ranasinghe, R.: Probabilistic estimation of coastal dune
erosion and recession by statistical simulation of storm events, Appl. Ocean
Res., 47, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2014.01.002, 2014b.
Lindemer, C. A., Plant, N. G., Puleo, J. A., Thompson, D. M., and Wamsley, T.
V.: Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological
response to Hurricane Katrina, Coast. Eng., 57, 985–995,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.06.004, 2010.
Logue, K., Valles, E., Vila, A., Utter, A., Semmen, D., Grayver, E., Olsen, S., and Branchevsky, D.: Expert RF Feature Extraction to Win the Army RCO AI Signal Classification Challenge, in: Proceedings of the 18th Python in Science Conference, 8–14 July 2019, Austin, Texas, 13–20, https://doi.org/10.25080/Majora-7ddc1dd1-002, 2019.
López, I., Aragonés, L., Villacampa, Y., and Serra, J. C.: Neural
network for determining the characteristic points of the bars, Ocean Eng.,
136, 141–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.03.033, 2017.
Massey, F. J.: The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Goodness of Fit, J. Am. Stat. A., 46, 68–78, https://doi.org/10.2307/2280095, 1951.
McCall, R. T., Van Thiel de Vries, J. S. M., Plant, N. G., Van Dongeren, A.
R., Roelvink, J. A., Thompson, D. M., and Reniers, A. J. H. M.:
Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at
Santa Rosa Island, Coast. Eng., 57, 668–683,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.02.006, 2010.
Murphy, A. H.: Skill Scores Based on the Mean Square Error and Their
Relationships to the Correlation Coefficient, Mon. Weather Rev., 116,
2417–2424, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<2417:SSBOTM>2.0.CO;2, 1988.
Nair, V. and Hinton, G. E.: Rectified linear units improve restricted boltzmann machines, in: Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on International Conference on Machine Learning, June 2010, Madison, WI, USA, 807–814, 2010.
Passeri, D. L., Long, J. W., Plant, N. G., Bilskie, M. V., and Hagen, S. C.:
The influence of bed friction variability due to land cover on storm-driven
barrier island morphodynamics, Coast. Eng., 132, 82–94,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.11.005, 2018.
Pearson, S. G., Storlazzi, C. D., van Dongeren, A. R., Tissier, M. F. S., and
Reniers, A. J. H. M.: A Bayesian-Based System to Assess Wave-Driven Flooding
Hazards on Coral Reef-Lined Coasts, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 122,
10099–10117, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013204, 2017.
Poelhekke, L., Jäger, W. S., van Dongeren, A., Plomaritis, T. A.,
McCall, R., and Ferreira, Ó.: Predicting coastal hazards for sandy coasts
with a Bayesian Network, Coast. Eng., 118, 21–34,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.08.011, 2016.
Ranasinghe, R., Callaghan, D., and Stive, M. J. F.: Estimating coastal
recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule, Clim. Change,
110, 561–574, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0107-8, 2012.
Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A., van Thiel de Vries, J., McCall,
R., and Lescinski, J.: Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier
islands, Coast. Eng., 56, 1133–1152,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.08.006, 2009.
Ruessink, B. G. and Jeuken, M. C. J. L.: Dunefoot dynamics along the Dutch
coast, Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 27, 1043–1056,
https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.391, 2002.
Ruessink, G., Schwarz, C. S., Price, T. D., and Donker, J. J. A.: A Multi-Year Data Set of Beach-Foredune Topography and Environmental Forcing Conditions at Egmond aan Zee, The Netherlands, Data, 4, 73, https://doi.org/10.3390/data4020073, 2019.
Sallenger, J.: Storm impact scale for barrier islands, J. Coast. Res.,
16, 890–895, 2000.
Santos, V. M., Wahl, T., Long, J. W., Passeri, D. L., and Plant, N. G.:
Combining Numerical and Statistical Models to Predict Storm-Induced Dune
Erosion, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 124, 1817–1834,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005016, 2019.
Sanuy, M. and Jiménez, J. A.: Probabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networks, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021.
Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger, A. H.: Empirical
parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coast. Eng., 53, 573–588,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005, 2006.
Stockdon, H. F., Sallenger, A. H., Holman, R. A., and Howd, P. A.: A simple
model for the spatially-variable coastal response to hurricanes, Mar. Geol.,
238, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2006.11.004, 2007.
van Dongeren, A., Ciavola, P., Martinez, G., Viavattene, C., Bogaard, T.,
Ferreira, O., Higgins, R., and McCall, R.: Introduction to RISC-KIT:
Resilience-increasing strategies for coasts, Coast. Eng., 134,
2–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.007, 2018.
van Gent, M. R. A., van den Boogaard, H. F. P., Pozueta, B., and Medina, J.
R.: Neural network modelling of wave overtopping at coastal structures,
Coast. Eng., 54, 586–593,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2006.12.001, 2007.
Van Thiel de Vries, J. S. M.: Dune erosion during storm surges, TU Delft,
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:885bf4b3-711e-41d4-98a4-67fc700461ff (last access: 15 March 2022), 2009.
Vellinga, P.: Beach and dune erosion during storm surges, Coast. Eng., 6,
361–387, https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3839(82)90007-2, 1982.
Verhaeghe, H., De Rouck, J., and van der Meer, J.: Combined
classifier-quantifier model: A 2-phases neural model for prediction of wave
overtopping at coastal structures, Coast. Eng., 55, 357–374,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2007.12.002, 2008.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Almeida, L. P., and Ferreira, Ó.: Modelling storm-induced beach morphological change in a meso-tidal, reflective beach using XBeach, J. Coastal Res., Special Issue 64, 1916–1920, 2011.
Wahl, T., Plant, N. G., and Long, J. W.: Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 3029–3043, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011482, 2016.
Wang, W., Jones, P., and Partridge, D.: Assessing the impact of input
features in a feedforward neural network, Neural Comput. Appl., 9,
101–112, https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00009895, 2000.
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint