Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Coastal hazards and hydro-meteorological extremes
Research article
19 Oct 2022
Research article
| 19 Oct 2022
Wind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coast
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai et al.
Related authors
No articles found.
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1337, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the Mediterranean forecasting system evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Giorgio Micaletto, Ivano Barletta, Silvia Mocavero, Ivan Federico, Italo Epicoco, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Pasquale Schiano, Giovanni Aloisio, and Nadia Pinardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The full exploitation of supercomputing architectures requires a deep revision of the current climate models. This paper presents the parallelization of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules). Optimized numerical libraries were used to partition the model domain and solve the sparse linear system of equations in parallel. The performance assessment demonstrates a good level of scalability with a realistic configuration used as a benchmark.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Katherine M. Smith, Skyler Kern, Peter E. Hamlington, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Emily F. Klee, and Kyle E. Niemeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2419–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a newly developed reduced-order biogeochemical flux model that is complex and flexible enough to capture open-ocean ecosystem dynamics but reduced enough to incorporate into highly resolved numerical simulations with limited additional computational cost. The model provides improved correlations between model output and field data, indicating that significant improvements in the reproduction of real-world data can be achieved with a small number of variables.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Ali Aydoğdu, Nadia Pinardi, Emin Özsoy, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Özgür Gürses, and Alicia Karspeck
Ocean Sci., 14, 999–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A 6-year simulation of the Turkish Straits System is presented. The simulation is performed by a model using unstructured triangular mesh and realistic atmospheric forcing. The dynamics and circulation of the Marmara Sea are analysed and the mean state of the system is discussed on annual averages. Volume fluxes computed throughout the simulation are presented and the response of the model to severe storms is shown. Finally, it was possible to assess the kinetic energy budget in the Marmara Sea.
Ali Aydoğdu, Timothy J. Hoar, Tomislava Vukicevic, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Nadia Pinardi, Alicia Karspeck, Jonathan Hendricks, Nancy Collins, Francesca Macchia, and Emin Özsoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 537–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents, to our knowledge, the first data assimilation experiments in the Sea of Marmara. We propose a FerryBox network for monitoring the state of the sea and show that assimilation of the temperature and salinity improves the forecasts in the basin. The flow of the Bosphorus helps to propagate the error reduction. The study can be taken as a step towards a marine forecasting system in the Sea of Marmara that will help to improve the forecasts in the adjacent Black and Aegean seas.
Giorgia Verri, Nadia Pinardi, David Gochis, Joseph Tribbia, Antonio Navarra, Giovanni Coppini, and Tomislava Vukicevic
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, 2017
Giovanni Coppini, Palmalisa Marra, Rita Lecci, Nadia Pinardi, Sergio Cretì, Mario Scalas, Luca Tedesco, Alessandro D'Anca, Leopoldo Fazioli, Antonio Olita, Giuseppe Turrisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Giovanni Aloisio, Sandro Fiore, Antonio Bonaduce, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Ivan Federico, Gianandrea Mannarini, Paola Agostini, Roberto Bonarelli, Sara Martinelli, Giorgia Verri, Letizia Lusito, Davide Rollo, Arturo Cavallo, Antonio Tumolo, Tony Monacizzo, Marco Spagnulo, Rorberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Marina Tonani, Massimiliano Drudi, Paola Nassisi, Laura Conte, Laura Panzera, Antonio Navarra, and Giancarlo Negro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
Lidia Bressan, Andrea Valentini, Tiziana Paccagnella, Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, and Maria Stefania Tesini
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the sensitivity of an oceanic model of the Adriatic Sea to the horizontal resolution and to the meteorological forcing. The model is run with two different configurations and with two horizontal grids at 1 and 2 km resolution. To study the influence of the meteorological forcing, the two storms have been reproduced by running ROMS in ensemble mode. Possible optimizations of the model set-up are deduced by the comparison of the different run outputs.
Ivan Federico, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, Rita Lecci, and Michele Mossa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, which provides short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields for the nested system.
Zhaoyi Wang, Andrea Storto, Nadia Pinardi, Guimei Liu, and Hui Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 17–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017, 2017
Giovanni Coppini, Eric Jansen, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Creti, Elena Yurievna Shchekinova, Nadia Pinardi, Rita Lecci, Ivano Carluccio, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Alessandro D'Anca, Gianandrea Mannarini, Sara Martinelli, Palmalisa Marra, Tommaso Capodiferro, and Tommaso Gismondi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2713–2727, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A new web-based and mobile Decision Support System (DSS) for Search-And-Rescue (SAR) at sea is presented, and its performance is evaluated using real case scenarios. The system, named OCEAN-SAR, is accessible via the website http://www.ocean-sar.com. OCEAN-SAR simulates drifting objects at sea, using as input ocean currents and wind. The performance of the service is evaluated by comparing simulations to data from the Italian Coast Guard pertaining to actual incidents in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
Maria Gabriella Gaeta, Achilleas G. Samaras, Ivan Federico, Renata Archetti, Francesco Maicu, and Giuliano Lorenzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2071–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2071-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2071-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The present work describes an operational strategy for the development of a multiscale modeling system, based on a multiple–nesting approach and open–source numerical models. The strategy was applied and validated for the Gulf of Taranto in southern Italy, scaling large–scale oceanographic model results to high–resolution coupled-wave 3-D hydrodynamics simulations for the area of Mar Grande in Taranto. The spatial and temporal high-resolution simulations were performed using the open source.
Emanuela Fiori, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Cristina Mazziotti, and Carla Rita Ferrari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2043–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the capability of the numerical model in reproducing the trophic index (TRIX) calculated from in situ data. The ecosystem simulations can represent an important support for monitoring activities, allowing the use of TRIX to be extended to larger areas where in situ sampling activities are difficult to implement. The model TRIX was calculated for the whole Adriatic Sea, showing trophic differences across the Adriatic Sea.
Svitlana Liubartseva, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi, Michela De Dominicis, Rita Lecci, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Cretì, Sara Martinelli, Paola Agostini, Palmalisa Marra, and Francesco Palermo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative fully operational 24/7 web-based decision support system, WITOIL (Where Is The Oil), has been developed to support oil pollution response. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and dynamic service delivery. Comprehensive computational resources and network bandwidth efficiently support the multi-user regime. The eight-language graphical user interface incorporates a great variety of user services, e.g., help and support, tooltips, and video tutorials.
Jenny Pistoia, Nadia Pinardi, Paolo Oddo, Matthew Collins, Gerasimos Korres, and Yann Drillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1807–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we developed a new multi-model super-ensemble method to estimate sea surface temperature, an important product of ocean analysis systems. We find that ensemble size, quality, type of members and the training period length are all important elements of the MMSE methodology and require careful calibration. We show that with a rather limited but overconfident data set (with a low bias of the starting ensemble members) the RMSE analysis can be improved.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.
Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, and Alessandro Iafrati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1597–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
VISIR is a new numerical model for the computation of optimal ship routes from meteo-marine forecasts. VISIR offers the scientific community an open platform whereby various ideas and methods for ship route optimization can be shared, tested, and compared to each other.
M. D. Harley, A. Valentini, C. Armaroli, L. Perini, L. Calabrese, and P. Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
P. Oddo, A. Bonaduce, N. Pinardi, and A. Guarnieri
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3001–3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, 2014
A. Guarnieri, A. J. Souza, N. Pinardi, and P. Traykovski
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Lardner
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1851–1869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, 2013
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Archetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1871–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China
A global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)
Hazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricane Gamma and Hurricane Delta on the northern Yucatán Peninsula
Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networks
Simulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden LS-1 (southwestern Svalbard Islands)
Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding
Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia
Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement
Modelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructure
Historical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami event
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Reconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coast
Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy
Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai
Detecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using of autoassociative Neural Network
Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks
Potential tsunami hazard of the southern Vanuatu Subduction Zone: tectonics, case study of the Matthew Island tsunami of 10 February 2021 and implication in regional hazard assessment
The role of heat wave events in the occurrence and persistence of thermal stratification in the southern North Sea
Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust
Characteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the doublet earthquakes on 26 December 2006
Real-time coastal flood hazard assessment using DEM-based hydrogeomorphic classifiers
Coastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclones
Rapid tsunami force prediction by mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling
Characteristics of two tsunamis generated by successive Mw 7.4 and Mw 8.1 earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands on 4 March 2021
Mesoscale simulation of typhoon-generated storm surge: methodology and Shanghai case study
Submarine landslide source modeling using the 3D slope stability analysis method for the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi, tsunami
Characteristics and beach safety knowledge of beachgoers on unpatrolled surf beaches in Australia
Robust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: towards low-cost satellite-based tsunami warning systems
A coupled modelling system to assess the effect of Mediterranean storms under climate change
Correlation of wind waves and sea level variations on the coast of the seasonally ice-covered Gulf of Finland
The role of morphodynamics in predicting coastal flooding from storms on a dissipative beach with sea level rise conditions
Multilayer modelling of waves generated by explosive subaqueous volcanism
Time-dependent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for Western Sumatra, Indonesia, Using Space-Time Earthquake Rupture Modelling and Stochastic Source Scenarios
Statistical estimation of spatial wave extremes for tropical cyclones from small data samples: validation of the STM-E approach using long-term synthetic cyclone data for the Caribbean Sea
Development of damage curves for buildings near La Rochelle during storm Xynthia based on insurance claims and hydrodynamic simulations
Investigating the interaction of waves and river discharge during compound flooding at Breede Estuary, South Africa
Still normal? Near-real-time evaluation of storm surge events in the context of climate change
The influence of infragravity waves on the safety of coastal defences: a case study of the Dutch Wadden Sea
Assessment of potential beach erosion risk and impact of coastal zone development: a case study on Bongpo–Cheonjin Beach
Characteristics and coastal effects of a destructive marine storm in the Gulf of Naples (southern Italy)
Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation
An Interdisciplinary Agent-based Evacuation Model: Integrating Natural Environment, Built environment, and Social System for Community Preparedness and Resilience
Towards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surges
Review article: Extreme marine events revealed by lagoonal sedimentary records in Ghar El Melh during the last 2500 years in the northeast of Tunisia
Exploring the partial use of the Mo.S.E. system as effective adaptation to rising flood frequency of Venice
Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru
The Mw 7.5 Tadine (Maré, Loyalty Islands) earthquake and related tsunami of 5 December 2018: seismotectonic context and numerical modeling
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A hydrodynamic model and copula methodology were used to set up a joint distribution of the peak water level and the inland rainfall during tropical cyclone periods, and to calculate the marginal contributions of the individual drivers. The results indicate that the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomical tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution from the storm surge.
Kathrin Wahle, B. Emil Vassilev Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-539, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as strom surge and atmospheric forcing alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modelled in present-day ocean forecasting, still there is a need for better understanding situations where modelled and observed water levels deviate from eachother. Here we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea level observations in the North Sea.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-157, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the southwest Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture model, and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Raquel P. Felix, Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on this fault could trigger a tsunami that would impact the regional capital cities of Mataram and Denpasar. We show that for 3–5 m of slip on the fault (a Mw 7.5–7.9+ earthquake), the cities would experience a wave ca. 1.6–2.7 and ca. 0.6–1.4 m high, arriving in < 9 and ca. 23–27 min, respectively. They would also experience subsidence of 20–40 cm, resulting in long-term exposure to coastal hazards.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-126, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore southern Taiwan on the 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation, propagation, as well as unexpected consequences at the coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the tsunami source characteristics, and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in insular countries of Taiwan such as wave trapping, edge waves, and shelf resonance.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, Joseph L. Gutenson, Gaurav Savant, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1419–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The high population settled in coastal regions and the potential damage imposed by coastal floods highlight the need for improving coastal flood hazard assessment techniques. This study introduces a topography-based approach for rapid estimation of flood hazard areas in the Savannah River delta. Our validation results demonstrate that, besides the high efficiency of the proposed approach, the estimated areas accurately overlap with reference flood maps.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-120, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards, in terms of sea surface elevation and waves, originated by the passage of hurricanes in the Caribbean. A set of 1000 events have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
Kenta Tozato, Shinsuke Takase, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Yu Otake, Yo Fukutani, Kazuya Nojima, Masaaki Sakuraba, and Hiromu Yokosu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel framework for rapid tsunami force predictions through the application of mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling with 2D–3D coupled numerical simulations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to one of the tsunami-affected areas during the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
Yuchen Wang, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Kenji Satake, and Gui Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1073–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunami waveforms contain the features of its source, propagation path, and local topography. On 4 March 2021, two tsunamis were generated by earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, within 2 h. This rare case gives us a valuable opportunity to study the characteristics of two tsunamis. We analyzed the records of two tsunamis at tide gauges with spectral analysis tools. It is found that two tsunamis superpose during the few hours after the arrival of the second tsunami.
Shuyun Dong, Wayne J. Stephenson, Sarah Wakes, Zhongyuan Chen, and Jianzhong Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 931–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale simulation provides a general approach that could be implemented to fulfill the purpose of planning and has relatively low requirements for computation time and data while still providing reasonable accuracy. The method is generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world for examining the effect of future climate change on typhoon-generated storm surge even where historical observed data are inadequate or not available.
Chatuphorn Somphong, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Tsuyoshi Nagasawa, Yuya Narita, Ryunosuke Tawatari, Shohei Iwai, Yukio Mabuchi, Saneiki Fujita, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Cipta Athanasius, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 891–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of past research used hypothesized landslides to simulate tsunamis, but they were still unable to properly explain the observed data. In this study, submarine landslides were simulated by using a slope-failure-theory-based numerical model for the first time. The findings were verified with post-event field observational data. They indicated the potential presence of submarine landslide sources in the southern part of the bay and were consistent with the observational tsunamis.
Lea Uebelhoer, William Koon, Mitchell D. Harley, Jasmin C. Lawes, and Robert W. Brander
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 909–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-909-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-909-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Beachgoers at unpatrolled Australian beaches were surveyed to gain an understanding of their demographics, beach safety knowledge, and behaviour. Most visited unpatrolled beaches out of convenience and because they wanted to visit a quiet location. Despite being infrequent beachgoers, with poor swimming and hazard identification skills, most intended to enter the water. Authorities should go beyond the
swim between the flagssafety message, as people will always swim at unpatrolled beaches.
Ryuichi Kanai, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao, Alan Smith, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 849–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The air pressure created by a tsunami causes a depression in the electron density in the ionosphere. The depression is measured at sparsely distributed, moving GPS satellite locations. We provide an estimate of the volume of the depression. When applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, our method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 min of the earthquake, even when using only 5 % of the data. Thus satellite-based warnings could be implemented across the world with our approach.
Riccardo Alvise Mel, Teresa Lo Feudo, Massimo Miceli, Salvatore Sinopoli, and Mario Maiolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we present a coupled modelling system to compute the wind climate and the hydrodynamic two-dimensional field in coastal areas, with particular reference to the Marine Experimental Station of Capo Tirone (Italy). We combined sea level rise and extreme storm projections with the most recent georeferenced territorial data.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements, and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Suitably chosen copula functions can account for the dependence.
Jairo E. Cueto, Luis J. Otero Díaz, Silvio R. Ospino-Ortiz, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 713–728, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-713-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-713-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the importance of morphodynamics on flooding estimation during storms with sea level rise conditions on a microtidal beach. XBeach and SWAN were the numerical models used to test several case studies. The results indicate that numerical modeling of flooding should be approached by considering morphodynamics; ignoring them can underestimate flooding by ~ 15 %. Moreover, beach erosion and flooding are intensified by sea level rise and high tides in ~ 69 % and ~ 65 %, respectively.
Matthew W. Hayward, Colin N. Whittaker, Emily M. Lane, William L. Power, Stéphane Popinet, and James D. L. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 617–637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions can produce tsunamis through multiple mechanisms. We present validation cases for a numerical method used in simulating waves caused by submarine explosions: a laboratory flume experiment and waves generated by explosions at field scale. We then demonstrate the use of the scheme for simulating analogous volcanic eruptions, illustrating the resulting wavefield. We show that this scheme models such dispersive sources more proficiently than standard tsunami models.
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, 2022
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a novel framework of time-dependent (TD) probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) combining a total of ≥ 100,000 spatiotemporal earthquakes (EQ) rupture models and 6,300 probabilistic tsunami simulations to evaluate the tsunami hazards and compare them with the time-independent (TI) PTHA results. The proposed model can capture the uncertainty of future TD tsunami hazards and produces slightly higher hazard estimates than the TI model for short-term periods (< 30 years).
Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, Yann Krien, and Philip Jonathan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 431–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Characterizing extreme wave environments caused by tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe is difficult because cyclones rarely pass near the location of interest. STM-E (space-time maxima and exposure) model utilizes wave data during cyclones on a spatial neighbourhood. Long-duration wave data generated from a database of synthetic tropical cyclones are used to evaluate the performance of STM-E. Results indicate STM-E provides estimates with small bias and realistic uncertainty.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Sunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 187–205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal regions, flooding can occur from combined tides, storms, river discharge, and waves. Effects of waves are commonly neglected when assessing flooding, although these may strongly contribute to extreme water levels. We find that waves combined with tides and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, increased flood extent and depth and caused earlier flooding than when waves were neglected. This highlights the need to consider all major flood drivers in future flood assessments.
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, it is often discussed whether the events were unusual. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. An approach that provides such information in near real time was developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown that information useful for public and scientific debates can be provided in near real time.
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many coastlines around the world have shallow foreshores (e.g. salt marshes and mudflats) that reduce storm waves and the risk of coastal flooding. However, most of the studies that tried to quantify this effect have excluded the influence of very long waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Our newly developed framework addresses this oversight and suggests that safety along these coastlines may be overestimated, since these very long waves are largely neglected in flood risk assessments.
Changbin Lim, Tae Kon Kim, Sahong Lee, Yoon Jeong Yeon, and Jung Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3827-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study aimed to quantitatively assess erosion risk. Methods for assessing each potential were proposed, and the corresponding erosion risk was calculated by introducing a combined potential erosion risk curve presenting the erosion consequence. In addition the method for verifying the risk was examined for the east coast of South Korea. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature and plays a key role in identifying methods that prevent erosion.
Gaia Mattei, Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Anfuso, Giorgio Budillon, and Pietro Aucelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3809–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3809-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3809-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the characteristics of a destructive marine storm in the strongly inhabited coastal area of the Gulf of Naples, along the Italian coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is highly vulnerable to marine storms due to the accelerated relative sea level rise trend and the increased anthropogenic impact on the coastal area. Finally, a first assessment of the return period of this event was evaluated using local press reports on damage to urban furniture and port infrastructures.
Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Joakim Beck, Peter Pazak, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-370, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses empirical data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Tom Howard and Simon David Paul Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3693–3712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3693-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The model is based on the physics of the atmosphere and oceans. We hope that this will help us to better quantify extreme events: even bigger than those that have been seen in the tide gauge record. Our model simulates events which are comparable to the catastrophic 1953 storm surge. Model simulations have the potential to reduce the uncertainty in inferences of the most extreme surge return levels.
Balkis Samah Kohila, Laurent Dezileau, Soumaya Boussetta, Tarek Melki, and Nejib Kallel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3645–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Tunisian coast has been historically affected by extreme marine submersion events resulting from storms or tsunamis. To establish adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is essential to study these events in terms of spatial and temporal variability. Using a geological archive (sediment cores and surface sediments) retrieved from this coastal area of Tunisia, we present a reconstruction of past marine submersion events over the last 2500 years.
Riccardo A. Mel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3629–3644, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3629-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3629-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The present study investigates the hydrodynamics of the Venice lagoon if a partial use of the Mo.S.E. system (i.e. by closing the Lido inlet only) will be adopted.
A linear relationship is obtained between the seaward tidal amplitude and the reduction of the sea level peak at Venice, Burano, and Chioggia. Tidal period and wind have been accounted for. Two-thirds of the flood events can be effectively mitigated by such an operation under relative sea level rise scenarios up to +0.4 m.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Maxime Duphil, Jérôme Lefèvre, Jérôme Aucan, Pierre Lebellegard, Bruce Thomas, Céline Bachelier, and David Varillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3489–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3489-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study deals with the 5 December 2018 tsunami in New Caledonia and Vanuatu (southwestern Pacific) triggered by a Mw 7.5 earthquake that occurred southeast of Maré, Loyalty Islands, and was widely felt in the region. Numerical modeling results of the tsunami using a non-uniform and a uniform slip model compared to real tide gauge records and observations are globally well correlated for the uniform slip model, especially in far-field locations.
Cited articles
Aguirre, C., Rutllant, J. A., and Falvey, M.: Wind waves climatology of the
Southeast Pacific Ocean, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 4288–4301, 2017.
Akpinar, A. and Komurcu, M. I.: Assessment of wave energy resource of the
Black Sea based on 15-year numerical hindcast data, Appl. Energy, 101,
502–512, 2013.
Amarouche, K., Bingölbali, B., and Akpinar, A.: New wind-wave climate
records in the Western Mediterranean Sea, Clim. Dynam., 58, 1899–1922, 2022.
Ardhuin, F., O'Reilly, W. C., Herbers, T. H. C., and Jessen, P. F.: Swell
Transformation across the Continental Shelf. Part I: Attenuation and
Directional Broadening, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 1921–1939, 2003.
Ardhuin, F., Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J. R., Cavaleri, L., Filipetto, V.,
Lefevre, J. M., and Wittmann, P.: Comparison of wind and wave measurements
and models in the western Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Eng., 34, 526–541, 2007.
Ardhuin, F., Rogers, W. E., Babanin, A. V., Filipot, J., Magne, R., Roland,
A., van der Westhuysen, A., Queffeulou, P., Lefevre, J., Aouf, L., and
Collard, F.: Semiempirical dissipation source functions for ocean waves.
Part I: Definition, calibration, and validation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40,
1917–1941, 2010.
Arkhipkin, V. S., Gippius, F. N., Koltermann, K. P., and Surkova, G. V.: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2883–2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2883-2014, 2014.
Armaroli, C. and Duo, E.: Validation of the coastal storm risk assessment
framework along the emilia-romagna coast, Coast. Eng., 134, 159–167, 2018.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Masina, M., and Perini, L.: Run-up computation
behind emerged breakwaters for marine storm risk assessment, J. Coast. Res.,
56, 1612–1616, 2009.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., Valentini,
A., and Masina, M.: Critical storm thresholds for significant morphological
changes and damage along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy, Geomorphology,
143–144, 34–51, 2012.
Armaroli, C., Duo, E., and Viavattene, C.: From Hazard to Consequences:
Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Flooding Along the Emilia-Romagna Coastline, Italy, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 203, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00203, 2019.
Babanin, A. V.: Breaking and dissipation of ocean surface waves, Cambridge
University Press, 480 pp., ISBN 9780511736162, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511736162., 2011.
Barbariol, F., Davison, S., Falcieri, F. M., Ferretti, R., Ricchi, A., Sclavo, M., and Benetazzo, A.: Wind Waves in the Mediterranean Sea: An ERA5
Reanalysis Wind-Based Climatology, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 760614, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.760614, 2021.
Battjes, J. A. and Janssen, J. P. F. M.: Energy loss and set-up due to
breaking of random waves, in: 16th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, 27 August–3 September 1978, Hamburg, Germany, 569–587,
https://doi.org/10.1061/9780872621909.034, 1978.
Benetazzo, A., Francesco, B., Paolo, P., Staneva, J., Behrens, A., Davison,
S., Bergamasco, F., Sclavo, M., and Cavaleri, L.: Towards a unified framework for extreme sea waves from spectral models: rationale and applications, Ocean Eng., 219, 108263, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108263, 2021.
Bertotti, L., Canestrelli, P., Cavaleri, L., Pastore, F., and Zampato, L.: The Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2965–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2965-2011, 2011.
Bertotti, L., Cavaleri, L., Loffredo, L., and Torrisi, L.: Nettuno: Analysis
of a Wind and Wave Forecast System for the Mediterranean Sea, Mon. Weather
Rev., 141, 3130–3141, 2013.
Biolchi, L. G., Unguendoli, S., Bressan, L., and Valentini, A.: Recent
developments in the forecasting chain at Arpae-Simc for the Emilia-Romagna
(Northeast Italy) coastal areas, in: 9th EuroGOOS International conference,
Shom, Ifremer, EuroGOOS AISBL, May 2021, Brest, France, hal-03328370, 2021.
Biolchi, L. G., Unguendoli, S., Bressan, L., Giambastiani, B. M. S., and Valentini, A.: Ensemble technique application to an XBeach-based coastal Early Warning System for the Northwest Adriatic Sea (Emilia-Romagna region, Italy), Coast. Eng., 173, 104081, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104081, 2022.
Bonaldo, D., Bucchignani, E., Ricchi, A., and Carniel, S.: Wind storminess
in the Adriatic Sea in a climate change scenario, Acta Adriat., 58, 195–208, 2017.
Bosserelle, C., Pattiaratchi, C., and Haigh, I.: Inter-annual variability
and longer-term changes in the wave climate of western Australia between
1970 and 2009, Ocean Dynam., 62, 63–76, 2012.
Carter, D. J. T., Foale, S., and Webb, D. J.: Variations in global wave
climate throughout the year, Int. J. Remote Sens., 12, 1687–1697, 1991.
Cavaleri, L.: The oceanographic tower Acqua Alta – activity and prediction of sea states at Venice, Coast. Eng., 39, 29–70, 2000.
Cavaleri, L. and Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.: Wind-wave prediction in shallow
water: Theory and applications, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 10961–10973, 1981.
Cavaleri, L., Bertotti, L., and Lionello, P.: Extreme storms in the Adriatic
Sea, In: Edge, B. L. Ed., in: Proceedings 22nd Int. Conf. on Coastal Eng., 2–6 July 1990, Delft, the Netherlands, 218–226, 3305, 1991.
Cavaleri, L., Abdalla, S., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J.-R., Breivik, Ø., Carniel, S., Jensen, R. E., Portilla-Yandun, J., Rogers, W. E., Roland, A., Sanchez-Arcilla, A., Smith, J. M., Staneva, J., Toledo, Y., van Vledder, G. P. and van der Westhuysen, A. J.: Wave modelling in coastal and inner seas, Prog. Oceanogr., 167, 164–233, 2018.
Cavaleri, L., Bajo, M., Barbariol, F., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A.,
Bertotti, L., Chiggiato, J., Davolio, S., Ferrarin, C., Magnusson, L., Papa,
A., Pezzutto, P., Pomaro, A., and Umgiesser, G.: The October 29, 2018 storm
in Northern Italy-An exceptional event and its modeling, Prog. Oceanogr.,
178, 102178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2019.102178, 2019.
Cavaleri, L., Barbariol, F., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., and Pomaro, A.: An exceptionally high wave at the CNR-ISMAR oceanographic tower in the Northern Adriatic Sea, Sci. Data, 8, 37, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00825-x, 2021.
Ciavola, P., Harley, M. D., and den Heijer, C.: The RISC-KIT storm impact
database: a new tool in support of DR, Coast. Eng., 134, 24–32, 2017.
Clementi, E., Oddo, P., Drudi, M., Pinardi, N., Korres, G., and Grandi, A.: Coupling hydrodynamic and wave models: first step and sensitivity experiments in the Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Dynam., 67, 1293–1312, 2017.
Cox, A. T. and Swail, V. R.: A global wave hindcast over the period 1958–1997: validation and climate assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 106,
2313–2329, 2001.
De Leo, F., De Leo, A., Besio, G., and Briganti, R.: Detection and quantification of trends in time series of significant wave heights: an
application in the Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Eng., 202, 107155, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.107155, 2020.
De Leo, F., Besio, G., and Mentaschi, L.: Trends and variability of ocean
waves under RCP8.5 emission scenario in the Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Dynam.,
71, 97–117, 2021.
de Rosnay, P., Browne, P., de Boisséson, E., Fairbairn, D., Hirahara, Y., Ochi, K., Schepers, D., Weston, P., Zuo, H., Alonso-Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bonavita, M., Borman, N., Brown, A., Chrust, M., Dahoui, M., De Chiara, G., English, S., Geer, A., Healy, S., Hersbach, H., Laloyaux, P., Magnusson, L., Massart, S., McNally, A., Pappenberger, F., and Rabier, F.: Coupled data assimilation at ECMWF: current status, challenges and future developments, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol Soc., 148, 2672–2702, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4330, 2022.
DHI group: MIKE 21 Spectral Wave Module, Scientific Documentation, Danish
Hydraulic Institute (DHI), Holsholm, Denmark, p. 56, https://manuals.mikepoweredbydhi.help/2017/Coast_and_Sea/M21SW_Scientific_Doc.pdf
(last access: 20 March 2022), 2017.
Dodet, G., Bertin, X., and Taborda, R.: Wave climate variability in the
North-East Atlantic Ocean over the last six decades, Ocean Model., 31,
120–131, 2010.
Donatini, L., Lupieri, G., Contento, G., Feudale, L., Pedroncini, A., Cusati, L. A., and Crosta, A.: A high resolution wind and wave forecast model chain for the Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, in: Vol. 1, Towards Green Marine Technology and Transport: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of the International Maritime Association of the Mediterranean (IMAM2015),
21–24 September 2015, Pula, Croatia, edited by: Guedes Soares, C., Dejhalla, R., and Pavletic, D., University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy, CRC Press, 859–866, ISBN 9780429225604, https://doi.org/10.1201/b18855, 2015.
Donelan, M. A., Babanin, A. V., Young, I. R., and Banner, M. L.: Wave
follower measurements of the wind-input spectral function. Part II.
Parameterization of the wind input, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 1672–1689, 2006.
Farda, A., Štěpánek, P., Halenka, T., Skalák, P., and Belda,
M.: Model ALADIN in climate mode forced with ERA-40 reanalysis (coarse
resolution experiment), Meteorol. J., 10, 123–130, 2007.
Fedor, N. G. and Stanislav, A. M.: Black Sea wind wave climate with a focus
on coastal regions, Ocean Eng., 218, 108199, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108199, 2020.
Ferrarin, C., Valentini, A., Vodopivec, M., Klaric, D., Massaro, G., Bajo, M., De Pascalis, F., Fadini, A., Ghezzo, M., Menegon, S., Bressan, L., Unguendoli, S., Fettich, A., Jerman, J., Ličer, M., Fustar, L., Papa, A., and Carraro, E.: Integrated sea storm management strategy: the 29 October 2018 event in the Adriatic Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020.
Fiori, E., Zavatarelli, M., Pinardi, N., Mazziotti, C., and Ferrari, C. R.: Observed and simulated trophic index (TRIX) values for the Adriatic Sea basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2043–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, 2016.
Gaeta, M. G., Samaras, A. G., Federico, I., Archetti, R., Maicu, F., and Lorenzetti, G.: A coupled wave–3-D hydrodynamics model of the Taranto Sea (Italy): a multiple-nesting approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2071–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2071-2016, 2016.
Gaeta, M. G., Bonaldo, D., Samaras, A. G., Carniel, S., and Archetti, R.:
Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under
Climate Change Scenarios, Water, 10, 1380, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101380, 2018.
Gorman, R. M., Bryan, K. R., and Laing, A. K.: Wave hindcast for the New Zealand region: deep-water wave climate, NZ J. Mar. Freshw. Res., 37, 589–612, 2003.
Harley, M. D., Valentini, A., Armaroli, C., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and Ciavola, P.: Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016.
Hasselmann, K., TBarnett, T. P., Bouws, E., Carlson, H., Cartwright, D. E.,
Enke, K., Ewing, J. A., Gienapp, H., Hasselmann, D. E., Kruseman, P., Meerburg, A., Muller, P., Olbers, D. J., Richter, K., Sell, W., and Walden,
H.: Measurements of wind-wave growth and swell decay during the Joint North
Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP), Ergänzungsheft zur Deutschen Hydrographischen Zeitschrift, Reihe A 12, 95 pp., http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f204e188-13b9-49d8-a6dc-4fb7c20562fc (last access: 20 March 2022), 1973.
Hemer, M. A., Church, J. A., and Hunter, J. R.: Variability and trends in
the directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere, Int. J. Climatol.,
30, 475–491, 2010.
Hemer, M. A., Wang, X. L., Weisse, R., and Swail, V. R.: Advancing wind-waves climate science, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 791–796, 2012.
IDROSER: Progetto di Piano per la difesa del mare e la riqualificazione ambientale del litorale della Regione Emilia-Romagna, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italia, 365 pp., 1996.
IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, in: Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, 996 pp., ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1, 2007.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, in: Contribution of
Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Kamranzad, B., Etemad-shahidi, A., and Chegini, V.: Assessment of wave energy variation in the Persian Gulf, Ocean Eng., 70, 72–80, 2013.
Katalinić, M., Ćorak, M., and Parunov, J.: Analysis of wave heights and wind speeds in the Adriatic Sea, in: Maritime Technology and Engineering Vol. 1, Proceedings of the MARTECH 2014, 2nd International Conference on Maritime Technology and Engineering, 15–17 October 2014, Lisabon, Portugal,
edited by: Soares, C. G. and Santos, T. A., CRC Press/Balkema, Leiden, the
Netherlands, 1389–1394, 2015.
Komen, G. J., Cavaleri, L., Donelan, M., Hasselmann, K., Hasselmann, S., and
Janssen, P. A. E. M.: Dynamics and Modelling of Ocean Waves, Cambridge
University Press, 532 pp., ISBN 9780511628955, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511628955, 1994.
Korres, G., Papadopoulos, A., Katsafados, P., Ballas, D., Perivoliotis, L.,
and Nittis, K.: A 2-year intercomparison of the WAM-CYCLE4 and the WAVEWATCH-III wave models implemented within the Mediterranean Sea, Mediterr. Mar. Sci., 12, 129–152, 2011.
Korres, G., Ravdas, M., Zacharioudaki, A., Denaxa, D., and Sotiropoulou, M.:
Mediterranean Sea Waves Analysis and Forecast (CMEMS MED-Waves, MedWAM3 system) (Version 1) set, CMEMS – Copernicus Monitoring Environment Marine
Service, https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_ANALYSISFORE, 2021.
Le Cozannet, G., Oliveros, C., Brivois, O., Giremus, A., Garcin, M., and
Lavigne, F.: Detecting Changes in European Shoreline Evolution Trends Using
Markov Chains and the Eurosion Database, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 326, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00326, 2020.
Lionello, P.: The Climate of the Mediterranean Region, Elsevier, Amsterdam,
https://doi.org/10.1016/C2011-0-06210-5, 2012.
Lionello, P. and Sanna, A.: Mediterranean wave climate variability and its
links with NAO and Indian monsoon, Clim. Dynam., 25, 611–623, 2005.
Lionello P., Abrantes, F., Congedi, L., Dulac, F., Gacic, M., Gomis, D.,
Goodess, C., Hoff, H., Kutiel, H., Luterbacher, J., Planton, S., Reale, M.,
Schröder, K., Struglia, M. V., Toreti, A., Tsimplis, M., Ulbrich, U., and
Xoplaki, E.: Introduction: Mediterranean Climate: Background Information in
The Climate of the Mediterranean Region. From the Past to the Future, edited by: Lionello, P., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, XXXV–lXXX,
ISBN 9780124160422, 2012.
Lobeto, H., Menendez, M., and Losada, I. J.: Projections of Directional
Spectra Help to Unravel the Future Behavior of Wind Waves, Front. Mar. Sci.,
8, 655490, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.655490, 2021.
Luijendijk, A., Hagenaars, G., Ranasinghe, R., Fedor, B., Gennadii, D., and
Stefan, A.: The State of the World's Beaches, Sci. Rep., 8, 6641, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24630-6, 2018.
Mahmoudi, E., Meshkat, R. S., Kargar, B., and Kundu, D.: The Extended Exponentiated Weibull Distribution and its Applications, Statistica, 78,
363–396, 2018.
Mentaschi, L., Vousdoukas, M. I., Pekel, J.-F., Voukouvalas, E., and Feyen,
L.: Global long-term observations of coastal erosion and accretion, Sci.
Rep., 8, 12876, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30904-w, 2018.
Morales-Márquez, V., Orfila, A., Simarro, G., and Marcos, M.: Extreme waves and climatic patterns of variability in the eastern North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins, Ocean Sci., 16, 1385–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1385-2020, 2020.
Muraleedharan, G., Unnikrishnan Nair, N., and Kurup, P. G.: Characteristics of long-term distributions of wave heights and periods in the eastern Arabian
Sea, Indian J. Mar. Sci., 22, 21–27, 1993.
Muraleedharan, G., Kurup, P. G., and Unnikrishnan Nair, N.: Weibull model for shallow water wave height distribution and prediction, in: National Conference on Current Trends in Ocean Predictions with Special Reference to Indian Seas, Naval Physical and Oceanographic Laboratory, 22–23 December 1998, Kochi, Kerala, India, 80–85, 1998.
Muraleedharan, G., Unnikrishnan Nair, N., and Kurup, P. G.: Application of
Weibull model for redefined significant wave height distributions, Proc.
Indian Acad. Sci. Earth Planet. Sci., 108, 149–153, 1999.
Murphy, A. H.: What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting, Weather Forecast., 8, 281–293, 1993.
Pandzic, K. and Likso, T.: Eastern Adriatic typical wind field patterns and
large-scale atmospheric conditions, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 81–98, 2005.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Luciani, P., Olivieri, M., Galassi, G., and Spada, G.: Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2271–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2271-2017, 2017.
Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, U., Pinardi, N., Federico, I., Causio, S., Trotta, F., Unguendoli, S., and Valentini, A.: Data/codes used in the the Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) publication titled “Wind-Wave Characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coast” by Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai et al., 2022 (Version V1), Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6360348, 2022.
Qian, C., Jiang, H., Wang, X., and Chen, G.: Climatology of Wind-Seas and Swells in the China Seas from Wave Hindcast, J. Ocean Univ. China, 19, 90–100, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-020-3924-4, 2020.
Queffeulou, P. and Bentamy, A.: Analysis of Wave Height Variability Using
Altimeter Measurements: Application to the Mediterranean Sea, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 24, 2078–2092, 2007.
Ravdas, M., Zacharioudaki, A., and Korres, G.: Implementation and validation of a new operational wave forecasting system of the Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2675–2695, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2675-2018, 2018.
Reistad, M., Breivik, Ø., Haakenstad, H., Aarnes, O. J., Furevik, B. R.,
and Bidlot, J. R.: A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C05019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006402, 2011.
Rogers, W. E., Babanin, A. V., and Wang, D. W.: Observation-consistent input
and whitecapping dissipation in a model for wind-generated surface waves:
Description and simple calculations, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 29, 1329–1346, 2012.
Romagnoli, C., Sistilli, F., Cantelli, L., Aguzzi, M., De Nigris, N., Morelli, M., Gaeta, M. G., and Archetti, R.: Beach Monitoring and Morphological Response in the Presence of Coastal Defense Strategies at Riccione (Italy), J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 9, 851, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9080851, 2021.
Russo, A., Coluccelli, A., Carniel, S., Benetazzo, A., Valentini, A., and
Paccagnella, T.: Operational Models Hierarchy for Short Term Marine
Predictions: The Adriatic Sea Example, in: IEEE MTS/IEEE OCEANS, Bergen, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANS-Bergen.2013.6608139, 2013.
Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1825–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, 2018.
Sekovski, I., Armaroli, C., Calabrese, L., Mancini, F., Stecchi, F., and Perini, L.: Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2331–2346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2331-2015, 2015.
Semedo, A., Suselj, K., Rutgersson, A., and Sterl, A.: A global view on the
wind sea and swell climate and variability from ERA-40, J. Climate, 24,
1461–1479, 2011.
Sepulveda, H. H., Queffeulou, P., and Ardhuin, F.: Assessment of SARAL/AltiKa wave height measurements relative to buoy, Jason-2, and Cryosat-2 data, Mar. Geod., 38, 449–465, 2015.
Sikiric, M. D., Damir, I., Roland, A., Ivatek-Shahdan, S., and Tudor, M.:
Operational Wave Modelling in the Adriatic Sea with the Wind Wave Model, Pure Appl. Geophys., 175, 3801–3815, 2018.
Steppeler, J., G. Doms, U. Shatter, Bitzer, H. W., Gassmann, A., Damrath, U., and Gregoric, G.: Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 82, 75–96, 2003.
Sterl, A. and Caires, S.: Climatology, variability and extrema of ocean waves: The web-based KNMI/ERA-40 wave atlas, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 963–977, 2005.
Sterl, A., Komen, G. J., and Cotton, P. D.: Fifteen years of global wave
hindcasts using winds from the European centre for medium-range weather
forecasts reanalysis: validating the reanalyzed winds and assessing the wave
climate, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 5477–5492, 1998.
Stopa, J. E. and Cheung, K. F.: Periodicity and patterns of ocean wind and
wave climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 5563–5584, 2014.
Tolman, H. L.: A genetic optimization package for the Generalized Multiple
DIA in WAVEWATCH III, Tech. Note 289, Ver. 1.0, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB, 21 pp.,
https://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/mmab/papers/tn289/MMAB_289_v1.0.pdf (last access: 20 March 2022), 2010.
Tolman, H. L.: A Generalized Multiple Discrete Interaction Approximation for
resonant four-wave nonlinear interactions in wind wave models with arbitrary
depth, Ocean Model., 70, 11–24, 2013.
Tolman, H. L.: A genetic optimization package for the Generalized Multiple
DIA in WAVEWATCH III, Tech. Note 289, Ver. 1.4, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB, 21 pp. + Appendix, https://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/mmab/papers/tn289/MMAB_289_v1.4.pdf (last access: 20 March 2022), 2014.
Tolman, H. L., Balasubramaniyan, B., Burroughs, L. D., Chalikov, D. V.,
Chao, Y. Y., Chen, H. S., and Gerald, V. M.: Development and Implementation
of Wind-Generated Ocean Surface Wave Models at NCEP, Weather Forecast., 17, 311–333, 2002.
Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: A practical guide to wavelet analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61–78, 1998.
Umgiesser, G., Ferrari, C., Cucc, A., De Pascalis, F., Bellafiore, D.,
Ghezzo, M., and Bajo, M.: Comparative hydrodynamics of 10 Mediterranean lagoons by means of numerical modeling, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 2212–2226, 2014.
Umgiesser, G., Bajo, M., Ferrarin, C., Cucco, A., Lionello, P., Zanchettin, D., Papa, A., Tosoni, A., Ferla, M., Coraci, E., Morucci, S., Crosato, F.,
Bonometto, A., Valentini, A., Orlić, M., Haigh, I. D., Nielsen, J. W.,
Bertin, X., Fortunato, A. B., Pérez Gómez, B., Alvarez Fanjul, E.,
Paradis, D., Jourdan, D., Pasquet, A., Mourre, B., Tintoré, J., and
Nicholls, R. J.: The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and
uncertainty (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021.
Valentini, A., Delli Passeri, L., Paccagnella, T., Patruno, P., Marsigli, C., Cesari, D., Deserti, M., Chiggiato, J., and Tibaldi, S.: The sea state forecast system of ARPA-SIM, Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl., 48, 333–349, 2007.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Bianchi, A., Dottori, F.,
and Feyen, L.: Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood
risk in Europe, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 776–780, 2018.
Weibull, W.: A statistical distribution function of wide applicability, J.
Appl. Mech., 18, 293–297, 1951.
Woolf, D. K., Challenor, P. G., and Cotton, P. D.: Variability and predictability of the North Atlantic wave climate, J. Geophys. Res., 107,
3145–3158, 2002.
WW3DG – WW3 Development Group: User manual and system documentation of WW3 v.5.16, NOAA, http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/wavewatch/manual.v5.16.pdf (last access: 20 March 2022), 2016.
Yamaguchi, M.: Approximate expressions for integral properties of the
JONSWAP spectrum, Proc. Jpn. Soc. Civ. Eng., 345, 149–152, 1984.
Young, I. R.: Seasonal variability of the global ocean wind and wave climate, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 931–950, 1999.
Young, I. R. and Donelan, M. A.: On the determination of global ocean wind and wave climate from satellite observations, Remote Sens. Environ., 215,
228–241, 2018.
Young, I. R. and Holland, G. J.: Atlas of the Oceans: Wind and Wave Climate, Pergamon Press, 241 pp., ISBN 13:978-0080425191, 1996.
Young, I. R., Zieger, S., and Babanin, A. V.: Global trends in wind speed and
wave height, Science, 332, 451–455, 2011.
Young, I. R., Fontaine, E., Liu, Q., and Babanin, A. V.: The wave climate of
the Southern Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 50, 1417–1433, 2020.
Zheng, C. W. and Li, C. Y.: Variation of the wave energy and significant wave
height in the China Sea and adjacent waters, Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev., 43, 381–387, 2015.
Zheng, K., Sun, J., Guan, C., and Shao, W.: Analysis of the global swell and
wind sea energy distribution using WAVEWATCH III, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/8419580, 2016.
Zieger, S., Babanin, A. V., Rogers, W. E., and Young, I. R.: Observation-based source terms in the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH, Ocean Model., 96, 2–25, 2015.
Special issue
Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint