Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Research article
06 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2022

Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding

Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc

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Cited articles

Abily, M., Bertrand, N., Delestre, O., Gourbesville, P., and Duluc, C. M.: Spatial Global Sensitivity Analysis of High Resolution classified topographic data use in 2D urban flood modelling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 77, 183–195, 2016. 
Anderson, B., Borgonovo, E., Galeotti, M., and Roson, R.: Uncertainty in climate change modelling: can global sensitivity analysis be of help?, Risk Anal., 34, 271–293, 2014. 
Ardhuin, F., Rogers, W. E., Babanin, A. V., Filipot, J., Magne, R., Roland, A., Van der Westhuysen, A., Queffeulou, P., Lefevre, J., Aouf, L., and Collard, F.: Semiempirical dissipation source functions for ocean waves. Part I: Definition, calibration, and validation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 917–941, 2010. 
Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J.: Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale, Sci. Rep., 10, 11895,, 2020. 
Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 424–427, 2013. 
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Final-revised paper