Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2022

Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding

Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc

Related authors

Investigating metamodeling capability to predict sea levels and marine flooding maps for early-warning systems: application on the Arcachon Lagoon (France)
Sophie Lecacheux, Jeremy Rohmer, Eva Membrado, Rodrigo Pedreros, Andrea Filippini, Déborah Idier, Servane Gueben-Vénière, Denis Paradis, Alice Dalphinet, and David Ayache
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3615,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3615, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Assessing atoll island future habitability in the context of climate change using Bayesian networks
Mirna Badillo-Interiano, Jérémy Rohmer, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Virginie Duvat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3884,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3884, 2025
Short summary
Drawing lessons for multi-model ensemble design from emulator experiments: application to future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet
Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-52,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-52, 2025
Short summary
Insights into the prediction uncertainty of machine-learning-based digital soil mapping through a local attribution approach
Jeremy Rohmer, Stephane Belbeze, and Dominique Guyonnet
SOIL, 10, 679–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-679-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-679-2024, 2024
Short summary
Improving interpretation of sea-level projections through a machine-learning-based local explanation approach
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Semi-empirical forecast modelling of rip-current and shore-break wave hazards
Bruno Castelle, Jeoffrey Dehez, Jean-Philippe Savy, Sylvain Liquet, and David Carayon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2379–2397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2379-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2379-2025, 2025
Short summary
A multiscale modelling framework of coastal flooding events for global to local flood hazard assessments
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Super typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2255–2269, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2255-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2255-2025, 2025
Short summary
Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2137–2154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2081–2096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Abily, M., Bertrand, N., Delestre, O., Gourbesville, P., and Duluc, C. M.: Spatial Global Sensitivity Analysis of High Resolution classified topographic data use in 2D urban flood modelling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 77, 183–195, 2016. 
Anderson, B., Borgonovo, E., Galeotti, M., and Roson, R.: Uncertainty in climate change modelling: can global sensitivity analysis be of help?, Risk Anal., 34, 271–293, 2014. 
Ardhuin, F., Rogers, W. E., Babanin, A. V., Filipot, J., Magne, R., Roland, A., Van der Westhuysen, A., Queffeulou, P., Lefevre, J., Aouf, L., and Collard, F.: Semiempirical dissipation source functions for ocean waves. Part I: Definition, calibration, and validation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 917–941, 2010. 
Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J.: Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale, Sci. Rep., 10, 11895, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0, 2020. 
Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 424–427, 2013. 
Download
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint