Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 May 2022
Research article |
| 18 May 2022
| 18 May 2022
Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Judith A. Hubbard
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Kyle E. Bradley
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Karen H. Lythgoe
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Linlin Li
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University,
Zhuhai, China
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
Adam D. Switzer
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore
Related authors
Paul Kenneth Luzon, Kristina Montalbo, Jam Galang, Jasmine May Sabado, Carmille Marie Escape, Raquel Felix, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-875-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-875-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the present-day morphology of the 2006 Guinsaugon landslide scar and potential failure that may occur, analysis of a 5 m resolution IfSAR-derived DTM was conducted using Coltop3D and Matterocking software to produce a structurally controlled landslide hazard map for Southern Leyte, Philippines. This type of simulated hazard maps would be useful for disaster prevention and to facilitate disaster risk reduction efforts for landslide-susceptible areas in the country.
Jun Yu Puah, Ivan D. Haigh, David Lallemant, Kyle Morgan, Dongju Peng, Masashi Watanabe, and Adam D. Switzer
Ocean Sci., 20, 1229–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal currents have wide implications for port activities, transport of sediments, and coral reef ecosystems; thus a deeper understanding of their characteristics is needed. We collected data on current velocities for a year using current meters at shallow waters in Singapore. The strength of the currents is primarily affected by tides and winds and generally increases during the monsoon seasons across various frequencies.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Zhi Yang Koh, Benjamin S. Grandey, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Adam D. Switzer, Benjamin P. Horton, Justin Dauwels, and Lock Yue Chew
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-294, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Identifying tide-surge interaction (TSI) can be a complex task. We enhance existing statistical methods with a more robust test that accounts for complex tides, and investigate the influence of tidal phase alteration on TSI using a semi-empirical model. We apply these techniques to tide-gauge records from the east coast of Singapore and Malaysia. We found TSI at all studied locations, and that tidal phase alteration can change the timing of large surges with minimal impact on their height.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Kai Wan Yuen, Adam D. Switzer, Paul P. S. Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-4, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Few databases provide standardized reporting of disaster-related agricultural damage and loss. We compiled cyclone-induced rice damage data from 1970–2018 in four countries in Asia (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam). Of the 1,046 cyclone events recorded, 13 % or 138 events were associated with rice damage. Philippines and Vietnam accounted for 128 of these events. While higher cyclone intensity tend to cause most damage, lower intensity events were more frequent.
Dominik Jackisch, Bi Xuan Yeo, Adam D. Switzer, Shaoneng He, Danica Linda M. Cantarero, Fernando P. Siringan, and Nathalie F. Goodkin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Philippines is a nation very vulnerable to devastating typhoons. We investigate if stable isotopes of precipitation can be used to detect typhoon activities in the Philippines based on daily isotope measurements from Metropolitan Manila. We find that strong typhoons such as Rammasun, which occurred in July 2014, leave detectable isotopic signals in precipitation. Besides other factors, the distance of the typhoon to the sampling site plays a key role in influencing the signal.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Kai Wan Yuen, Tang Thi Hanh, Vu Duong Quynh, Adam D. Switzer, Paul Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1473–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used flow diagrams to represent the ways in which anthropogenic land use and natural hazards have affected rice production in the two
mega-deltas of Vietnam. Anthropogenic developments meant to improve productivity may create negative feedbacks on rice production and quality. Natural hazards further amplify problems created by human activities. A systems-thinking approach can yield nuanced perspectives for tackling environmental challenges.
Qiang Qiu, Linlin Li, Ya-Ju Hsu, Yu Wang, Chung-Han Chan, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1565-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The accuracy of tsunami hazard assessments is highly dependent on the reliability of earthquake source models. In this study, we combine the most updated geological and geophysical data of the Manila subduction zone to propose a series of possible rupture scenarios. These rupture models facilitate an improved understanding of the potential tsunami hazard in the South China Sea. The results highlight the grave consequences faced by the SCS, one of the world's most densely populated coastlines.
Linlin Li, Jie Yang, Chuan-Yao Lin, Constance Ting Chua, Yu Wang, Kuifeng Zhao, Yun-Ta Wu, Philip Li-Fan Liu, Adam D. Switzer, Kai Meng Mok, Peitao Wang, and Dongju Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3167–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3167-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3167-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Typhoon Hato was one of the most damaging natural disaster events in the western Pacific region in 2017. It caused the the worst flooding in Macau since its instrumental records began in 1925. We present a high-resolution survey map recording inundation depths and distances at 278 sites in Macau. We provide a series of inundation maps under different tidal and sea levels. The maps that highlight adaptive strategies are essential in order to keep up with the pace of rising sea level.
Paul Kenneth Luzon, Kristina Montalbo, Jam Galang, Jasmine May Sabado, Carmille Marie Escape, Raquel Felix, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-875-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-875-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the present-day morphology of the 2006 Guinsaugon landslide scar and potential failure that may occur, analysis of a 5 m resolution IfSAR-derived DTM was conducted using Coltop3D and Matterocking software to produce a structurally controlled landslide hazard map for Southern Leyte, Philippines. This type of simulated hazard maps would be useful for disaster prevention and to facilitate disaster risk reduction efforts for landslide-susceptible areas in the country.
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Brief Communication: From modeling to reality – Insights from a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Dynamic Projections of Extreme Sea Levels for western Europe based on Ocean and Wind-wave Modelling
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 meta-process model
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
New insights into combined surfzone and estuarine bathing hazards
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunami: An integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Changing Sea Level, Changing Shorelines: Comparison of Remote Sensing Observations at the Terschelling Barrier Island
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-100, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves storm surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in storm surge estimates.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-71, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 23 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. Here we use this rare coincidence to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modeling and derive key areas for future research.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. This paper presents regional projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe produced with high-resolution models (~6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-28, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modelling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model, but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-482, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m/s and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Emmie M. Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew J. L. Harris
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-221, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently at Stromboli, for a locally generated tsunami, only 4 minutes of warning are available. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis, and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by Civil Protection agencies on Stromboli Island.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System ECFAS project, presents an approach used to estimate coastal flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Bene Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2320, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advanve in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, LiDAR and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Cited articles
Afif, H. and Cipta, A.: Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali, AIP Conf. Proc.,
1658, 050001, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4915041, 2015.
Ammon, C. J., Kanamori, H., and Lay, T.: A great earthquake doublet and
seismic stress transfer cycle in the central Kuril islands, Nature, 451,
561–565, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06521, 2008.
Beckers, J. and Lay, T.: Very broadband seismic analysis of the 1992 Flores,
Indonesia, earthquake (Mw=7.9), J. Geophys. Res., 100, 18179–18193, https://doi.org/10.1029/95jb01689, 1995.
Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M.
A., Sørensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I.,
Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson,
K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva,
J., Taroni, M., Del Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bureš, V., Cech, P.,
Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B.,
González, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kânoglu,
U., Macías, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon,
A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R.,
Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., and Vyhmeister, E.:
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps,
Front. Earth Sci., 9, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.628772,
2021.
Bilek, S. L.: Invited review paper: Seismicity along the South American
subduction zone: Review of large earthquakes, tsunamis, and subduction zone
complexity, Tectonophysics, 495, 2–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2009.02.037, 2010.
Boekschoten, G. J., Best, M. B., and Putra, K. S.: Balinese reefs in
historical context, in: Proceedings of the Ninth International Coral Reef Symposium, Bali, Indonesia, 23–27 October 2000, 2, edited by: Moosa, M. K., Soemodihardjo, S., Soegiarto, A., Romimohtarto, K., Nontji, A., Soekarno and Suharsono, ISBN 9798105974, 2000.
Bondarenko, M., Kerr, D., Sorichetta, A., and Tatem, A.:
Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets for 189
countries in 2020 using Built-Settlement Growth Model (BSGM) outputs, WorldPop [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/WP00684, 2020.
Bowin, C., Purdy, G. M., Johnston, C., Shor, G., Lawver, L. Hartono, H. M.
S., and Jezek, P.: Arc-Continent Collision in Banda Sea Region, Am. Assoc.
Pet. Geol. Bull., 64, 868–915,
https://doi.org/10.1306/2F9193CD-16CE-11D7-8645000102C1865D, 1980.
Chau, K. T. and Lam, K. T. S.: Field observations and numerical simulations
of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami using COMCOT, in: Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, edited by: Oka, F., Murakami, A., Uzuoka, R., and Kimoto, S., Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-00148-0, 2015.
Cruz, A. M. and Suarez-Paba, M. C.: Advances in Natech research: An
overview, Prog. Disaster Sci., 1, 100013,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100013, 2019.
Darmawan, H., Mutaqin, B. W., Wahyudi, W., Harijoko, A., Wibowo, H. E.,
Haerani, N., Surmayadi, M., Syarifudin, S., Jati, R., Suratman, S., and
Asriningrum, W.: Topography and structural changes of Anak Krakatau due to
the December 2018 catastrophic events, Indones. J. Geogr., 52, 402,
https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.53740, 2020.
Dewey, J. F. and Bird, J. M.: Mountain belts and the new global tectonics,
J. Geophys. Res., 75, 2625–2647, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB075i014p02625,
1970.
El-Hussain, I., Al-Habsi, Z., Al Bloushi, K., Omira, R., Deif, A., Baptista, M. A., and Mohamad, A. M. E.: Site-specific deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Diba-Oman and Diba-Al-Emirates, Arab. J. Geosci., 14, 831, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07137-9, 2021.
Escobar, R. S., Diaz, L. O., Guerrero, A. M., Galindo, M. P., Mas, E., Koshimura, S., Adriano, B., Urra, L., and Quintero, P.: Tsunami hazard assessment for the central and southern pacific coast of Colombia, Coast. Eng. J., 62, 540–552, https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2020.1818362, 2020.
Felix, R. P., Hubbard, J. A., Moore, J. D. P., and Switzer, A. D.: The Role
of Frontal Thrusts in Tsunami Earthquake Generation, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am., 112, 680–694, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210154, 2021.
Felix, R. P., Hubbard, J. A., Bradley, K. E., Lythgoe, K. H., Li, L., and Switzer, A. D.: The animation of the tsunami propagation for the 5 m coseismic slip, https://doi.org/10.21979/N9/DZLM5D, 2022a.
Felix, R. P., Hubbard, J. A., Bradley, K. E., Lythgoe, K. H., Li, L., and Switzer, A. D.: The inundation model for Mataram, Lombok, https://doi.org/10.21979/N9/QKNSKO, 2022b.
Fraser, S. A., Power, W. L., Wang, X., Wallace, L. M., Mueller, C., and
Johnston, D. M.: Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local
earthquake sources, Nat. Hazards, 70, 415–445,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0820-x, 2014.
González, F. I., Griffin, J., Harbitz, C. B., LeVeque, R. J., Lorito, S., Løvholt, F., Omira, R., Mueller, C., Paris, R., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Selva, J., Sørensen, M. B., and Thio, H. K.: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications, Rev. Geophys., 55, 1158–1198, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000579, 2017.
Grezio, A., Babeyko, A., Baptista, M. A., Behrens, J., Costa, A., Davies,
G., Geist, E. L., Glimsdal, S., González, F. I., Griffin, J., Harbitz,
C. B., LeVeque, R. J., Lorito, S., Løvholt, F., Omira, R., Mueller, C.,
Paris, R., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Selva, J., Sørensen, M. B.,
and Thio, H. K.: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and
Global Applications, Rev. Geophys., 55, 1158–1198,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000579, 2017.
Griffin, J., Latief, H., Kongko, W., Harig, S., Horspool, N., Hanung, R.,
Rojali, A., Maher, N., Fuchs, A., Hossen, J., Upi, S., Edi Dewanto, S.,
Rakowsky, N., and Cummins, P.: An evaluation of onshore digital elevation
models for modeling tsunami inundation zones, Front. Earth Sci., 3,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00032, 2015.
Griffin, J., Nguyen, N., Cummins, P., and Cipta, A.: Historical earthquakes
of the eastern sunda arc: Source mechanisms and intensity-based testing of
Indonesia's national seismic hazard assessment, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
109, 43–65, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180085, 2019.
Hall, R. and Spakman, W.: Mantle structure and tectonic history of SE Asia, Tectonophysics, 658, 14–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2015.07.003, 2015.
Hamilton, W.: Tectonics of the Indonesian region, Vol. 1078, US Government Printing Office, ISBN QE301.A1H35, 1979.
Hamzah, L., Puspito, N., and Imamura, F.: Tsunami Catalog Indonesia.pdf,
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jnds/22/1/22_1_25/_pdf (last access: 10 September 2021), 2000.
Hill, E. M., Borrero, J. C., Huang, Z., Qiu, Q., Banerjee, P., Natawidjaja,
D. H., Elosegui, P., Fritz, H. M., Suwargadi, B. W., Pranantyo, I. R., Li,
L. L., Macpherson, K. A., Skanavis, V., Synolakis, C. E., and Sieh, K.: The
2010 Mw7.8 Mentawai earthquake: Very shallow source of a rare tsunami
earthquake determined from tsunami field survey and near-field GPS data, J.
Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 117, B6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009159, 2012.
Horspool, N., Pranantyo, I., Griffin, J., Latief, H., Natawidjaja, D. H., Kongko, W., Cipta, A., Bustaman, B., Anugrah, S. D., and Thio, H. K.: A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3105–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3105-2014, 2014.
Hutchinson, M. F.: A new procedure for gridding elevation and stream line
data with automatic removal of spurious pits, J. Hydrol., 106, 211–232,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(89)90073-5, 1989.
Imamura, F. and Kikuchi, M.: Moment release of the 1992 Flores Island
earthquake inferred from tsunami and teleseismic data, Sci. Tsunami Hazards,
12, 67–76, 1994.
Kaiser, G., Scheele, L., Kortenhaus, A., Løvholt, F., Römer, H., and Leschka, S.: The influence of land cover roughness on the results of high resolution tsunami inundation modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2521–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2521-2011, 2011.
Kajiura, K.: The Leading Edge of a Tsunami, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., 41,
535–571, 1963.
Kardoso, R. and Dewi, A. A. C.: Tsunami inundation maps in Mataram City
based on tsunami modeling, in: Proceeding International Conference on
Science (ICST), Universitas Mataram, Indonesia, 14 December 2020, 273–278, 2021.
Koulali, A., Susilo, S., McClusky, S., Meilano, I., Cummins, P., Tregoning,
P., Lister, G., Efendi, J., and Syafi'I, M. A.: Crustal strain partitioning
and the associated earthquake hazard in the eastern Sunda-Banda Arc,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1943–1949, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067941,
2016.
Krausmann, E. and Cruz, A. M.: Impact of the 11 March 2011, Great East Japan
earthquake and tsunami on the chemical industry, Nat. Hazards, 67, 811–828,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0607-0, 2013.
Kulikov, E. A., Gusiakov, V. K., Ivanova, A. A., and Baranov, B. V.:
Numerical tsunami modeling and the bottom relief, Moscow Univ. Phys. Bull.,
71, 527–536, https://doi.org/10.3103/S002713491605012X, 2016.
Kurniawan, T. and Laili, A. F.: Penentuan Area Terdampak “Ketinggian
Maksimum Tsunami” di Pulau Bali Berdasarkan Potensi Gempabumi Pembangkit
Tsunami Pada Segmen Megathrust Sumba, J. Dialog dan Penanggulangan Bencana,
10, 93–104, 2019.
Liu, P. L. F., Cho, Y. S., Yoon, S. B., and Seo, S. N.: Numerical
Simulations of the 1960 Chilean Tsunami Propagation and Inundation at Hilo, Hawaii, in: Tsunami: Progress in Prediction, Disaster Prevention and Warning. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, edited by: Tsuchiya, Y. and Shuto, N., Vol. 4, Springer Dordrecht, 99–115, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8565-1_7, 1995a.
Liu, P. L. F., Cho, Y. S., Briggs, M. J., Kanoglu, U., and Synolakis, C. E.:
Runup of solitary waves on a circular Island, J. Fluid Mech., 302, 259–285,
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112095004095, 1995b.
Løvholt, F., Kühn, D., Bungum, H., Harbitz, C. B., and Glimsdal, S.:
Historical tsunamis and present tsunami hazard in eastern Indonesia and the
southern Philippines, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 117, B9,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009425, 2012.
Lythgoe, K., Muzli, M., Bradley, K., Wang, T., Nugraha, A. D., Zulfakriza,
Z., Widiyantoro, S., and Wei, S.: Thermal squeezing of the seismogenic zone
controlled rupture of the volcano-rooted Flores Thrust, Sci. Adv., 7, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIADV.ABE2348, 2021.
Marks, K. M. and Smith, W. H. F.: An Evaluation of Publicly Available Global
Bathymetry Grids, Mar. Geophys. Res., 27, 19–34,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11001-005-2095-4, 2006.
McCaffrey, R. and Nabelek, J.: Earthquakes, gravity, and the origin of the
Bali Basin: An example of a Nascent Continental Fold-and-Thrust Belt, J.
Geophys. Res., 92, 441, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB092iB01p00441, 1987.
Moore, J. D. P., Barbot, S., Lindsey, E., Masuti, S., and Muto, J.:
jdpmoore/unicycle: Unicycle, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.4471162, 2019.
Mori, N., Cox, D. T., Yasuda, T., and Mase, H.: Overview of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Damage and Its Relation to Coastal Protection along the Sanriku Coast, Earthq. Spectra, 29, 127–143, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000118, 2013.
Muhari, A., Imamura, F., Koshimura, S., and Post, J.: Examination of three practical run-up models for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3107–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3107-2011, 2011.
Musson, R. M. W.: A provisional catalogue of historical earthquakes in
Indonesia, Br. Geol. Surv., OR/12/073, 22 pp., 2012.
National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service: NCEI/WDS Global
Historical Tsunami Database, NOAA National Centers for Environmental
Information, NOAA [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5PN93H7, 2021.
Nguyen, N., Griffin, J., Cipta, A., and Cummins, P. R.: Indonesia's
Historical Earthquakes: Modelled examples for improving the national hazard
map, Geoscience Australia, 85 pp., https://doi.org/10.11636/record.2015.023, 2015.
Okada, Y.: Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a
half-space, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 82, 1018–1040, 1992.
Okal, E. A. and Borrero, J. C.: The “tsunami earthquake” of 1932 June 22
in Manzanillo, Mexico: Seismological study and tsunami simulations, Geophys.
J. Int., 187, 1443–1459, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05199.x,
2011.
Pradjoko, E., Wardani, L., Wardani, H., Sulistiyono, H., and Sulistiyono,
S.: The prediction of tsunami travel time to Mataram City Indonesia based on
North Lombok earthquake as the initial condition, MATEC Web Conf., 229,
4–8, https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201822904007, 2018.
Pranantyo, I. R., Heidarzadeh, M., and Cummins, P. R.: Complex tsunami
hazards in eastern Indonesia from seismic and non-seismic sources:
Deterministic modelling based on historical and modern data, Geosci. Lett.,
8, 20, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-021-00190-y, 2021.
Rakowsky, N., Androsov, A., Fuchs, A., Harig, S., Immerz, A., Danilov, S., Hiller, W., and Schröter, J.: Operational tsunami modelling with TsunAWI – recent developments and applications, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1629–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1629-2013, 2013.
Rashidi, A., Dutykh, D., Shomali, Z. H., Keshavarz Farajkhah, N., and Nouri, M.: A Review of Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone, Geosciences, 10, 372, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10090372, 2020.
Rashidi, A., Dutykh, D., Keshavarz, N., and Audin, L.: Regional tsunami hazard from splay faults in the Gulf of Oman, Ocean Eng., 243, 110169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.110169, 2022.
Rastogi, B. K. and Jaiswal, R. K.: A Catalog of Tsunamis in the Indian
Ocean, Sci. Tsunami Hazards, 25, 128–143, 2006.
Regnier, M., Calmant, S., Pelletier, B., Lagabrielle, Y., and Cabioch, G.:
The Mw7.5 1999 Ambrym earthquake, Vanuatu: A back arc intraplate thrust
event, Tectonics, 22, 18 pp., https://doi.org/10.1029/2002TC001422, 2003.
Roshan, A. D., Basu, P. C., and Jangid, R. S.: Tsunami hazard assessment of Indian coast, Nat. Hazards, 82, 733–762, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2216-1, 2016.
Rusli, I. and Rudyanto, A.: Pemodelan Tsunami Sebagai Bahan Mitigasi
Bencana Studi Kasus Sumenep Dan Kepulauannya, J. Neutrino, 2, 19 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.18860/neu.v0i0.1639, 2012.
Salaree, A., Huang, Y., Ramos, M. D., and Stein, S.: Relative Tsunami Hazard
From Segments of Cascadia Subduction Zone For Mw 7.5–9.2 Earthquakes,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094174, 2021.
Sallarès, V. and Ranero, C. R.: Upper-plate rigidity determines
depth-varying rupture behaviour of megathrust earthquakes, Nature, 576,
96–101, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1784-0, 2019.
Sallarès, V., Prada, M., Riquelme, S., Meléndez, A., Calahorrano,
A., Grevemeyer, I., and Ranero, C. R.: Large slip, long duration, and
moderate shaking of the Nicaragua 1992 tsunami earthquake caused by low
near-trench rock rigidity, Sci. Adv., 7, eabg8659,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg8659, 2021.
Salman, R., Lindsey, E. O., Lythgoe, K. H., Bradley, K., Muzli, M., Yun, S.
H., Chin, S. T., Tay, C. W. J., Costa, F., Wei, S., and Hill, E. M.:
Cascading partial rupture of the flores thrust during the 2018 lombok
earthquake sequence, indonesia, Seismol. Res. Lett., 91, 2141–2151,
https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190378, 2020.
Satake, K.: Effects of bathymetry on tsunami propagation: Application of ray
tracing to tsunamis, Pure Appl. Geophys. Pageoph., 126, 27–36,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876912, 1988.
Satake, K.: Linear and nonlinear computations of the 1992 Nicaragua
earthquake tsunami, Pure Appl. Geophys., 144, 455–470,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00874378, 1995.
Selva, J., Tonini, R., Molinari, I., Tiberti, M. M., Romano, F., Grezio, A.,
Melini, D., Piatanesi, A., Basili, R., and Lorito, S.: Quantification of
source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis
(SPTHA), Geophys. J. Int., 205, 1780–1803,
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw107, 2016.
Serra, C. S., Martínez-Loriente, S., Gràcia, E., Urgeles, R.,
Gómez de la Peña, L., Maesano, F. E., Basili, R., Volpe, M., Romano,
F., Scala, A., Piatanesi, A., and Lorito, S.: Sensitivity of Tsunami
Scenarios to Complex Fault Geometry and Heterogeneous Slip Distribution:
Case-Studies for SW Iberia and NW Morocco, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea.,
126, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB022127, 2021.
Silver, E. A., Reed, D., McCaffrey, R., and Joyodiwiryo, Y.: Back arc
thrusting in the Eastern Sunda Arc, Indonesia: A consequence of
arc-continent collision, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 88, 7429–7448,
https://doi.org/10.1029/JB088iB09p07429, 1983.
Silver, E. A., Breen, N. A., Prasetyo, H., and Hussong, D. M.: Multibeam
study of the Flores Backarc Thrust Belt, Indonesia, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 91, 3489–3500, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB091iB03p03489, 1986.
Suardana, A. A. M. A. P., Sugianto, D. N., and Helmi, M.: Study of
Characteristics and the Coverage of Tsunami Wave Using 2D Numerical Modeling
in the South Coast of Bali, Indonesia, Indones. J. Ocean. Geogr., 13,
237–250, 2019.
Suárez, G., Pardo, M., Domínguez, J., Ponce, L., Montero, W.,
Boschini, I., and Rojas, W.: The Limón, Costa Rica earthquake of April
22, 1991: Back arc thrusting and collisional tectonics in a subduction
environment, Tectonics, 14, 518–530, https://doi.org/10.1029/94TC02546, 1995.
Sulaeman, H.: Discovery of Paleotsunami Deposits along Eastern Sunda Arc:
Potential for Megathrust Earthquakes in Bali, Brigham Young University, BYU Scholars Archive, ISSN 2572-4479, 2018.
Suppasri, A., Maly, E., Kitamura, M., Syamsidik, Pescaroli, G., Alexander,
D., and Imamura, F.: Cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards: A
perspective for critical infrastructure resilience and disaster risk
reduction, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 66, 102597,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102597, 2021.
Thingbaijam, K. K. S., Mai, P. M., and Goda, K.: New empirical earthquake
source-scaling laws, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 2225–2246,
https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170017, 2017.
Tri Laksono, F. A., Aditama, M. R., Setijadi, R., and Ramadhan, G.: Run-up
Height and Flow Depth Simulation of the 2006 South Java Tsunami Using COMCOT
on Widarapayung Beach, IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng., 982, 012047,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/982/1/012047, 2020.
Tsimopoulou, V., Mikami, T., Hossain, T. T., Takagi, H., Esteban, M., and
Utama, N. A.: Uncovering unnoticed small-scale tsunamis: field survey in
Lombok, Indonesia, following the 2018 earthquakes, Nat. Hazards, 103,
2045–2070, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04071-z, 2020.
Tsuji, Y., Matsutomi, H., Imamura, F., Takeo, M., Kawata, Y., Matsuyama, M.,
Takahashi, T., Sunarjo, and Harjadi, P.: Damage to coastal villages due to
the 1992 Flores Island earthquake tsunami, Pure Appl. Geophys. Pageoph., 144,
481–524, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00874380, 1995.
Van Bemmelen, R. W.: General Geology of Indonesia and adjacent
archipelagoes, The Hague, Govt. Printing Office, Geol. Indones., 1, 732 pp., 1949.
Wang, X. and Liu, P. L.-F.: Numerical Simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean
Tsunamis – Coastal Effects, J. Earthq. Tsunami, 1, 273–297,
https://doi.org/10.1142/s179343110700016x, 2007.
Wang, X. and Power, W.: COMCOT: a Tsunami Generation Propagation and Run-up
Model, GNS Science, 129 pp., ISBN 9780478198676, 2011.
Wibowo, M., Kongko, W., Hendriyono, W., and Karima, S.: Tsunami Hazard
Potential Modeling as Tourism Development Considerations in the North of
Lombok Strait, IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., 832, 012047,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/832/1/012047, 2021a.
Wibowo, S. B., Hadmoko, D. S., Isnaeni, Y., Farda, N. M., Putri, A. F. S.,
Nurani, I. W., and Supangkat, S. H.: Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Ground
Deformation Due to 2018 Lombok Earthquake Series, Remote Sens., 13, 2222,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13112222, 2021b.
Wilson, K. M. and Power, H. E.: Tsunami Modelling with Static and Dynamic
Tides in Drowned River Valleys with Morphological Constrictions, Pure Appl.
Geophys., 177, 1595–1616, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02411-0, 2020.
Wronna, M., Omira, R., and Baptista, M. A.: Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2557–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2557-2015, 2015.
Yang, X., Singh, S. C., and Tripathi, A.: Did the Flores backarc thrust
rupture offshore during the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence in Indonesia?,
Geophys. J. Int., 221, 758–768, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa018, 2020.
Yeh, H., Imamura, F., Synolakis, C., Tsuji, Y., Liu, P., and Shi, S.: The
Flores Island tsunamis, Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 74, 369–373,
https://doi.org/10.1029/93EO00381, 1993.
Short summary
The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on this fault could trigger a tsunami that would impact the regional capital cities of Mataram and Denpasar. We show that for 3–5 m of slip on the fault (a Mw 7.5–7.9+ earthquake), the cities would experience a wave ca. 1.6–2.7 and ca. 0.6–1.4 m high, arriving in < 9 and ca. 23–27 min, respectively. They would also experience subsidence of 20–40 cm, resulting in long-term exposure to coastal hazards.
The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint