Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Warner Marzocchi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, University of Naples, Federico II, Complesso di Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cupa Nuova Cintia, 21 – 80126 Naples, Italy
Jacopo Selva
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Donato Creti 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy
Thomas H. Jordan
Department of Earth Sciences Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089, USA
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Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different...
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