Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
Research article
18 Nov 2021
Research article |  | 18 Nov 2021

A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting

Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan

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Cited articles

Abrahamson, N. A. and Bommer, J. J.: Probability and uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis, Earthq. Spectra, 21, 603–607, 2005. 
Aspinall, W. P., Woo, G., Voight, B., and Baxter, P.: Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 128, 273–285, 2003. 
Bayarri, M. J. and Berger, J. O.: The interplay of Bayesian and frequentist analysis, Stat. Sci., 19, 58–80, 2004. 
Bear-Crozier, N., Miller, V., Newey, V., Horspool, N., and Weber, R.: Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) I: development of the VAPAH tool for emulating multi-scale volcanic ash fall analysis, J. Appl. Volcanol., 5, 3, 2016. 
Bebbington, M.: Trends and clustering in the onsets of volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B01203, 2010. 
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Final-revised paper