Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
Research article
 | 
18 Nov 2021
Research article |  | 18 Nov 2021

A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting

Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan

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Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
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