Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
Research article
 | 
30 Jul 2021
Research article |  | 30 Jul 2021

Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches

Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada

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Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Cited articles

Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J.: Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale, Sci. Rep., 10, 11895, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0, 2020. 
Bakker, A. M. R., Louchard, D., and Keller, K.: Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections, Clim. Change, 140, 339–347, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1864-1, 2017. 
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116, 2019. 
Baudrit, C., Guyonnet, D., and Dubois, D.: Postprocessing the Hybrid Method for Addressing Uncertainty in Risk Assessments, J. Environ. Eng., 131, 1750–1754, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2005)131:12(1750), 2005. 
Baudrit, C., Guyonnet, D., and Dubois, D.: Joint propagation of variability and imprecision in assessing the risk of groundwater contamination, J. Contam. Hydrol., 93, 72–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2007.01.015, 2007. 
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Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
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