Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021
Research article
30 Jul 2021
Research article | 30 Jul 2021

Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches

Rémi Thiéblemont et al.

Related authors

Improving interpretation of sea-level projections through a machine-learning-based local explanation approach
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
EGUsphere,,, 2022
Short summary
Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga V. Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppälä, Kazuo Shiokawa, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 39, 1013–1035,,, 2021
Short summary
Partitioning the uncertainty contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding at a macrotidal site
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678,,, 2021
Short summary
Timescales of emergence of chronic flooding in the major economic center of Guadeloupe
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722,,, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891,,, 2022
Short summary
The role of heat wave events in the occurrence and persistence of thermal stratification in the southern North Sea
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698,,, 2022
Short summary
Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust
Raquel P. Felix, Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1682,,, 2022
Short summary
Real-time coastal flood hazard assessment using DEM-based hydrogeomorphic classifiers
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, Joseph L. Gutenson, Gaurav Savant, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1419–1435,,, 2022
Short summary
Rapid tsunami force prediction by mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling
Kenta Tozato, Shinsuke Takase, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Yu Otake, Yo Fukutani, Kazuya Nojima, Masaaki Sakuraba, and Hiromu Yokosu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1267–1285,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J.: Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale, Sci. Rep., 10, 11895,, 2020. 
Bakker, A. M. R., Louchard, D., and Keller, K.: Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections, Clim. Change, 140, 339–347,, 2017. 
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195,, 2019. 
Baudrit, C., Guyonnet, D., and Dubois, D.: Postprocessing the Hybrid Method for Addressing Uncertainty in Risk Assessments, J. Environ. Eng., 131, 1750–1754,, 2005. 
Baudrit, C., Guyonnet, D., and Dubois, D.: Joint propagation of variability and imprecision in assessing the risk of groundwater contamination, J. Contam. Hydrol., 93, 72–84,, 2007. 
Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Final-revised paper