Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 30 Jul 2021
| 30 Jul 2021
Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches
Rémi Thiéblemont
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières “BRGM”, French Geological Survey, 3 Avenue, Claude Guillemin, CEDEX, 45060 Orléans, France
Gonéri Le Cozannet
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières “BRGM”, French Geological Survey, 3 Avenue, Claude Guillemin, CEDEX, 45060 Orléans, France
Jérémy Rohmer
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières “BRGM”, French Geological Survey, 3 Avenue, Claude Guillemin, CEDEX, 45060 Orléans, France
Alexandra Toimil
IHCantabria-Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Calle Isabel Torres 15, 39011 Santander, Cantabria, Spain
Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta
IHCantabria-Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Calle Isabel Torres 15, 39011 Santander, Cantabria, Spain
Iñigo J. Losada
IHCantabria-Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Calle Isabel Torres 15, 39011 Santander, Cantabria, Spain
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- On the Bruun Rule suitability for modelling shoreline change A. Seenath & J. Dale https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107237
- Assessing coastline recession for adaptation planning: sea level rise versus storm erosion R. Ranasinghe et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35523-8
- Future Changes in Built Environment Risk to Coastal Flooding, Permanent Inundation and Coastal Erosion Hazards S. Stephens et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9091011
- Uncertainties in Shoreline Projections to 2100 at Truc Vert Beach (France): Role of Sea‐Level Rise and Equilibrium Model Assumptions M. D'Anna et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006160
- Synthèse des dynamiques anciennes et analyse spatio-temporelle des modifications récentes, actuelles et futures de la ligne de rivage dans le delta de la Majerda, Tunisie L. Diatta et al. https://doi.org/10.4000/165j9
- Effects of stochastic wave forcing on probabilistic equilibrium shoreline response across the 21st century including sea-level rise M. D'Anna et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104149
- A probabilistic methodology for the projection of flooding and erosion processes in the coastal zones of Andalusia (Spain) throughout the 21st century P. Otiñar et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1631041
- Composite shoreline-retreat workflow (CoShReW): a case study on the Andalusian coast A. Garcia Tort et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1695289
- Climate change risks on key open marine and coastal mediterranean ecosystems A. Hassoun et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07858-x
- Analysis of Sandbar–Trough Bed Level Changes Under Regular Wave Conditions—A Case Study of Ten-Mile Silver Beach, Hailing Island, China X. Bian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13050953
- Shoreline and land use–land cover changes along the 2004-tsunami-affected South Andaman coast: understanding changing hazard susceptibility V. Ghadamode et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3013-2024
- An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12122141
- Cartographie prospective d’évolution du trait de côte et des risques de submersion dans le contexte du changement climatique : une méthode appliquée au littoral du nord de la France A. Héquette et al. https://doi.org/10.4000/vertigo.36442
- Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies R. Thiéblemont et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44218-024-00041-1
- A critical review of closure depth theories and uncertainties: implications for shoreline modelling and coastal management C. Durkin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107732
- Study of dynamics of coastal sediment cell boundary in Cirebon coastal area based on integrated shoreline Montecarlo model and remote sensing data Y. Susilowati et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2022.102268
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- On the Bruun Rule suitability for modelling shoreline change A. Seenath & J. Dale https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107237
- Assessing coastline recession for adaptation planning: sea level rise versus storm erosion R. Ranasinghe et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35523-8
- Future Changes in Built Environment Risk to Coastal Flooding, Permanent Inundation and Coastal Erosion Hazards S. Stephens et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9091011
- Uncertainties in Shoreline Projections to 2100 at Truc Vert Beach (France): Role of Sea‐Level Rise and Equilibrium Model Assumptions M. D'Anna et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006160
- Synthèse des dynamiques anciennes et analyse spatio-temporelle des modifications récentes, actuelles et futures de la ligne de rivage dans le delta de la Majerda, Tunisie L. Diatta et al. https://doi.org/10.4000/165j9
- Effects of stochastic wave forcing on probabilistic equilibrium shoreline response across the 21st century including sea-level rise M. D'Anna et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104149
- A probabilistic methodology for the projection of flooding and erosion processes in the coastal zones of Andalusia (Spain) throughout the 21st century P. Otiñar et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1631041
- Composite shoreline-retreat workflow (CoShReW): a case study on the Andalusian coast A. Garcia Tort et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1695289
- Climate change risks on key open marine and coastal mediterranean ecosystems A. Hassoun et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07858-x
- Analysis of Sandbar–Trough Bed Level Changes Under Regular Wave Conditions—A Case Study of Ten-Mile Silver Beach, Hailing Island, China X. Bian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13050953
- Shoreline and land use–land cover changes along the 2004-tsunami-affected South Andaman coast: understanding changing hazard susceptibility V. Ghadamode et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3013-2024
- An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12122141
- Cartographie prospective d’évolution du trait de côte et des risques de submersion dans le contexte du changement climatique : une méthode appliquée au littoral du nord de la France A. Héquette et al. https://doi.org/10.4000/vertigo.36442
- Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies R. Thiéblemont et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44218-024-00041-1
- A critical review of closure depth theories and uncertainties: implications for shoreline modelling and coastal management C. Durkin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107732
- Study of dynamics of coastal sediment cell boundary in Cirebon coastal area based on integrated shoreline Montecarlo model and remote sensing data Y. Susilowati et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2022.102268
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Jun 2026
Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st...
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