Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021

Research article 30 Jul 2021

Research article | 30 Jul 2021

Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches

Rémi Thiéblemont et al.

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Latest update: 17 Oct 2021
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Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
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