Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021

Research article 30 Jul 2021

Research article | 30 Jul 2021

Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches

Rémi Thiéblemont et al.

Data sets

AR5 Sea Level Rise University of Hamburg https://icdc.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/ar5-slr.html

Regional sea level changes BRGM https://sealevelrise.brgm.fr/sea-level-scenarios

Model code and software

HYRISK: Hybrid Methods for Addressing Uncertainty in RISK Assessments J. Rohmer, J.-C. Manceau, D. Guyonnet, and F. Boulahya https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/HYRISK/index.html

Shoreline change Hyrisk Gitlab BRGM https://gitlab.brgm.fr/brgm/shoreline-change-hyrisk

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Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
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