Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, 2021

Research article 30 Jul 2021

Research article | 30 Jul 2021

Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches

Rémi Thiéblemont et al.

Data sets

AR5 Sea Level Rise University of Hamburg

Regional sea level changes BRGM

Model code and software

HYRISK: Hybrid Methods for Addressing Uncertainty in RISK Assessments J. Rohmer, J.-C. Manceau, D. Guyonnet, and F. Boulahya

Shoreline change Hyrisk Gitlab BRGM

Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Final-revised paper