Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 May 2020
Research article |
| 04 May 2020
| 04 May 2020
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
KNMI, De Bilt, 3731 GK, the Netherlands
Margarita Vazquez-Navarro
DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weißling, Germany
currently at: EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany
Nicolas Theys
Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Brussels,
1180, Belgium
Piet Stammes
KNMI, De Bilt, 3731 GK, the Netherlands
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Thomas Wagner, Simon Warnach, Steffen Beirle, Nicole Bobrowski, Adrian Jost, Janis Puķīte, and Nicolas Theys
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Sebastien Garrigues, Samuel Remy, Julien Chimot, Melanie Ades, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, Istvan Laszlo, Angela Benedetti, Roberto Ribas, Soheila Jafariserajehlou, Bertrand Fougnie, Shobha Kondragunta, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Mark Parrington, Nicolas Bousserez, Margarita Vazquez Navarro, and Anna Agusti-Panareda
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Miriam Latsch, Andreas Richter, Henk Eskes, Maarten Sneep, Ping Wang, Pepijn Veefkind, Ronny Lutz, Diego Loyola, Athina Argyrouli, Pieter Valks, Thomas Wagner, Holger Sihler, Michel van Roozendael, Nicolas Theys, Huan Yu, Richard Siddans, and John P. Burrows
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The article investigates different S5P TROPOMI cloud retrieval algorithms for tropospheric trace gas retrievals. The cloud products show differences primarily over snow and ice and for scenes under sun glint. Some issues regarding across-track dependence are found for the cloud fractions as well as for the cloud heights.
Nicolas Theys, Christophe Lerot, Hugues Brenot, Jeroen van Gent, Isabelle De Smedt, Lieven Clarisse, Mike Burton, Matthew Varnam, Catherine Hayer, Benjamin Esse, and Michel Van Roozendael
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4801–4817, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4801-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4801-2022, 2022
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Sulfur dioxide plume height after a volcanic eruption is an important piece of information for many different scientific studies and applications. Satellite UV retrievals are useful in this respect, but available algorithms have shown so far limited sensitivity to SO2 height. Here we present a new technique to improve the retrieval of SO2 plume height for SO2 columns as low as 5 DU. We demonstrate the algorithm using TROPOMI measurements and compare with other height estimates.
Pieternel F. Levelt, Deborah C. Stein Zweers, Ilse Aben, Maite Bauwens, Tobias Borsdorff, Isabelle De Smedt, Henk J. Eskes, Christophe Lerot, Diego G. Loyola, Fabian Romahn, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Nicolas Theys, Michel Van Roozendael, J. Pepijn Veefkind, and Tijl Verhoelst
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10319–10351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10319-2022, 2022
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Using the COVID-19 lockdown periods as an example, we show how Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI trace gas data (NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO and CHOCHO) can be used to understand impacts on air quality for regions and cities around the globe. We also provide information for both experienced and inexperienced users about how we created the data using state-of-the-art algorithms, where to get the data, methods taking meteorological and seasonal variability into consideration, and insights for future studies.
Christophe Lerot, François Hendrick, Michel Van Roozendael, Leonardo M. A. Alvarado, Andreas Richter, Isabelle De Smedt, Nicolas Theys, Jonas Vlietinck, Huan Yu, Jeroen Van Gent, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Pieter Valks, Diego Loyola, Hitoshi Irie, Vinod Kumar, Thomas Wagner, Stefan F. Schreier, Vinayak Sinha, Ting Wang, Pucai Wang, and Christian Retscher
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7775–7807, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7775-2021, 2021
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Global measurements of glyoxal tropospheric columns from the satellite instrument TROPOMI are presented. Such measurements can contribute to the estimation of atmospheric emissions of volatile organic compounds. This new glyoxal product has been fully characterized with a comprehensive error budget, with comparison with other satellite data sets as well as with validation based on independent ground-based remote sensing glyoxal observations.
Nicolas Theys, Vitali Fioletov, Can Li, Isabelle De Smedt, Christophe Lerot, Chris McLinden, Nickolay Krotkov, Debora Griffin, Lieven Clarisse, Pascal Hedelt, Diego Loyola, Thomas Wagner, Vinod Kumar, Antje Innes, Roberto Ribas, François Hendrick, Jonas Vlietinck, Hugues Brenot, and Michel Van Roozendael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16727–16744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16727-2021, 2021
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We present a new algorithm to retrieve sulfur dioxide from space UV measurements. We apply the technique to high-resolution TROPOMI measurements and demonstrate the high sensitivity of the approach to weak SO2 emissions worldwide with an unprecedented limit of detection of 8 kt yr−1. This result has broad implications for atmospheric science studies dealing with improving emission inventories and identifying and quantifying missing sources, in the context of air quality and climate.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
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The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Isabelle De Smedt, Gaia Pinardi, Corinne Vigouroux, Steven Compernolle, Alkis Bais, Nuria Benavent, Folkert Boersma, Ka-Lok Chan, Sebastian Donner, Kai-Uwe Eichmann, Pascal Hedelt, François Hendrick, Hitoshi Irie, Vinod Kumar, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Bavo Langerock, Christophe Lerot, Cheng Liu, Diego Loyola, Ankie Piters, Andreas Richter, Claudia Rivera Cárdenas, Fabian Romahn, Robert George Ryan, Vinayak Sinha, Nicolas Theys, Jonas Vlietinck, Thomas Wagner, Ting Wang, Huan Yu, and Michel Van Roozendael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12561–12593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12561-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12561-2021, 2021
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This paper assess the performances of the TROPOMI formaldehyde observations compared to its predecessor OMI at different spatial and temporal scales. We also use a global network of MAX-DOAS instruments to validate both satellite datasets for a large range of HCHO columns. The precision obtained with daily TROPOMI observations is comparable to monthly OMI observations. We present clear detection of weak HCHO column enhancements related to shipping emissions in the Indian Ocean.
Claire Lamotte, Jonathan Guth, Virginie Marécal, Martin Cussac, Paul David Hamer, Nicolas Theys, and Philipp Schneider
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11379–11404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11379-2021, 2021
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Improvements are made in a global chemical transfer model by considering a new volcanic SO2 emissions inventory, with more volcanoes referenced and more information on the altitude of injection. Better constraining volcanic emissions with this inventory improves the global, but mostly local, tropospheric sulfur composition. The tropospheric sulfur budget shows a nonlinearity to the volcanic contribution, especially to the sulfate aerosol burden and sulfur wet deposition.
Johannes de Leeuw, Anja Schmidt, Claire S. Witham, Nicolas Theys, Isabelle A. Taylor, Roy G. Grainger, Richard J. Pope, Jim Haywood, Martin Osborne, and Nina I. Kristiansen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10851–10879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10851-2021, 2021
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Using the NAME dispersion model in combination with high-resolution SO2 satellite data from TROPOMI, we investigate the dispersion of volcanic SO2 from the 2019 Raikoke eruption. NAME accurately simulates the dispersion of SO2 during the first 2–3 weeks after the eruption and illustrates the potential of using high-resolution satellite data to identify potential limitations in dispersion models, which will ultimately help to improve efforts to forecast the dispersion of volcanic clouds.
Lieuwe G. Tilstra, Olaf N. E. Tuinder, Ping Wang, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4219–4238, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4219-2021, 2021
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In this paper we introduce the new concept of directionally dependent Lambertian-equivalent reflectivity (DLER) of the Earth's surface retrieved from satellite observations. We apply this concept to data of the GOME-2 satellite instruments to create a global database of the reflectivity of the Earth's surface, providing surface DLER for 26 wavelength bands between 328 and 772 nm as a function of the satellite viewing angle via a second-degree polynomial parameterisation.
Gaia Pinardi, Michel Van Roozendael, François Hendrick, Nicolas Theys, Nader Abuhassan, Alkiviadis Bais, Folkert Boersma, Alexander Cede, Jihyo Chong, Sebastian Donner, Theano Drosoglou, Anatoly Dzhola, Henk Eskes, Udo Frieß, José Granville, Jay R. Herman, Robert Holla, Jari Hovila, Hitoshi Irie, Yugo Kanaya, Dimitris Karagkiozidis, Natalia Kouremeti, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Jianzhong Ma, Enno Peters, Ankie Piters, Oleg Postylyakov, Andreas Richter, Julia Remmers, Hisahiro Takashima, Martin Tiefengraber, Pieter Valks, Tim Vlemmix, Thomas Wagner, and Folkard Wittrock
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 6141–6174, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6141-2020, 2020
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We validate several GOME-2 and OMI tropospheric NO2 products with 23 MAX-DOAS and 16 direct sun instruments distributed worldwide, highlighting large horizontal inhomogeneities at several sites affecting the validation results. We propose a method for quantification and correction. We show the application of such correction reduces the satellite underestimation in almost all heterogeneous cases, but a negative bias remains over the MAX-DOAS and direct sun network ensemble for both satellites.
Ilias Bougoudis, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Andreas Richter, Sora Seo, John Philip Burrows, Nicolas Theys, and Annette Rinke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11869–11892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11869-2020, 2020
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A 22-year (1996 to 2017) consistent Arctic tropospheric BrO dataset derived from four satellite remote sensing instruments is presented. An increase in tropospheric BrO VCDs over this period, and especially during polar springs, can be seen. Comparisons of tropospheric BrO VCDs with first-year sea ice reveal a moderate spatial and temporal correlation between the two, suggesting that the increase in first-year sea ice in the Arctic has an impact on tropospheric BrO abundancies.
Lieuwe G. Tilstra, Martin de Graaf, Ping Wang, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4479–4497, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4479-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4479-2020, 2020
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The goal of the study was to determine the accuracy of the radiometric calibration of the TROPOMI instrument on board the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite in flight. The Earth reflectances were compared to radiative transfer calculations. We report calibration accuracies and errors for 21 selected wavelength bands between 328 and 2314 nm, located in TROPOMI spectral bands 3–7. The reported numbers can be used to perform corrections that will benefit the retrievals of many atmospheric properties.
Jiayue Huang, Lyatt Jaeglé, Qianjie Chen, Becky Alexander, Tomás Sherwen, Mat J. Evans, Nicolas Theys, and Sungyeon Choi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7335–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7335-2020, 2020
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Large-scale enhancements of tropospheric BrO and the depletion of surface ozone are often observed in the springtime Arctic. Here, we use a chemical transport model to examine the role of sea salt aerosol from blowing snow in explaining these phenomena. We find that our simulation can account for the spatiotemporal variability of satellite observations of BrO. However, the model has difficulty in producing the magnitude of observed ozone depletion events.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
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The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Martin de Graaf, Ruben Schulte, Fanny Peers, Fabien Waquet, L. Gijsbert Tilstra, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6707–6723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6707-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6707-2020, 2020
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The radiative effect from smoke by wildfires has been found to be much stronger than models predict. The effect is complex; smoke generally cools the climate system by reflecting sunlight but strongly warms the system when it is found over a bright cloud deck. In this paper three different satellite datasets are compared and all three confirm the strong warming of African smoke over the cloud deck in the south-east Atlantic. The intercomparison reduces the uncertainties in the observations.
Vitali Fioletov, Chris A. McLinden, Debora Griffin, Nicolas Theys, Diego G. Loyola, Pascal Hedelt, Nickolay A. Krotkov, and Can Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5591–5607, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5591-2020, 2020
Ping Wang, Ankie Piters, Jos van Geffen, Olaf Tuinder, Piet Stammes, and Stefan Kinne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1413-2020, 2020
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The comparison of shipborne MAX-DOAS and TROPOMI NO2 products is important for the evaluation of the TROPOMI products. The ship cruises were mainly over remote oceans, thus we only measured background tropospheric NO2. Stratospheric NO2 was measured more accurately because there was almost no contamination from tropospheric NO2. We found that the TROPOMI stratospheric NO2 vertical column densities were slightly higher than the MAX-DOAS measurements.
Martin de Graaf, L. Gijsbert Tilstra, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5119–5135, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5119-2019, 2019
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A new algorithm is described, which was used to derive direct radiative effects of aerosols above clouds. These effects are among the largest uncertainties in global climate model simulations, and observations are needed to constrain these simulations. A recently developed method was applied to a combination of satellite reflectance measurements to cover the entire shortwave (solar) spectrum. Radiative effects of aerosols over the south-east Atlantic are presented, where the effects are largest.
Nikos Benas, Jan Fokke Meirink, Martin Stengel, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2863–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2863-2019, 2019
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Cloud glory and bow phenomena cause irregularities in satellite-based retrievals of cloud optical and microphysical properties. Here we combine two geostationary satellites over the same areas to analyze retrievals under those conditions. Results show a high sensitivity of retrievals to the assumed width of the cloud droplet size distribution and provide insights into possible improvements in satellite retrievals by appropriately adjusting this assumed parameter.
Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Ronald J. van der A, Piet Stammes, K. Folkert Boersma, and Henk J. Eskes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6269–6294, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6269-2019, 2019
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In this paper, a ∼21-year self-consistent global dataset from four different satellite sensors is compiled for the first time to study the long-term tropospheric NO2 patterns and trends. A novel method capable of detecting the year when a reversal of trends happened shows that tropospheric NO2 concentrations switched from positive to negative trends and vice versa over several regions around the globe during the last 2 decades.
Yang Wang, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Sebastian Böhnke, Isabelle De Smedt, Russell R. Dickerson, Zipeng Dong, Hao He, Zhanqing Li, Zhengqiang Li, Donghui Li, Dong Liu, Xinrong Ren, Nicolas Theys, Yuying Wang, Yang Wang, Zhenzhu Wang, Hua Xu, Jiwei Xu, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5417–5449, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5417-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5417-2019, 2019
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A MAX-DOAS instrument was operated to derive tropospheric vertical profiles of NO2, SO2, HONO, HCHO, CHOCHO and aerosols in the central western North China Plain in May and June 2016. The MAX-DOAS results are verified by comparisons with a collocated Raman lidar, overpass aircraft measurements, a sun photometer and in situ measurements. The contributions of regional transports and local emissions to the pollutants are evaluated based on case studies and statistic analysis.
Elisa Carboni, Tamsin A. Mather, Anja Schmidt, Roy G. Grainger, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Iolanda Ialongo, and Nicolas Theys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4851–4862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4851-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4851-2019, 2019
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The 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption was the largest in Iceland for 200 years, emitting huge quantities of gas into the troposphere, at times overwhelming European anthropogenic emissions. Infrared Atmospheric sounding Interferometer data are used to derive the first time series of daily sulfur dioxide mass and vertical distribution over the eruption period. A scheme is used to estimate sulfur dioxide fluxes, the total erupted mass, and how long the sulfur dioxide remains in the atmosphere.
Raid M. Suleiman, Kelly Chance, Xiong Liu, Gonzalo González Abad, Thomas P. Kurosu, Francois Hendrick, and Nicolas Theys
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2067–2084, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2067-2019, 2019
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This paper presents the retrieval algorithm for the operational OMBRO data product and shows comparisons with correlative measurements and retrieval results. We highlight the physics of the retrieval. We compare the OMBRO products with other satellite and in situ measurements of BrO and illustrate the quality of the product on a global scale. We study OMBRO enhancements in volcanic plumes and over salt lakes. We also discuss the shortcomings and future updates of the OMBRO product.
Julien Chimot, J. Pepijn Veefkind, Johan F. de Haan, Piet Stammes, and Pieternel F. Levelt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 491–516, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-491-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-491-2019, 2019
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The reference OMI tropospheric NO2 product was reprocessed by new aerosol correction parameters retrieved from the 477 nm O2–O2 band over eastern China and South America for 2 years. These new parameters are from different and separate algorithms, allowing improved use of the 477 nm O2–O2 band. All the tested approaches improve the aerosol correction in the OMI tropospheric NO2 product. We demonstrate the possibility of applying an explicit aerosol correction based on the 477 nm O2–O2 band.
Ting Wang, Pucai Wang, Nicolas Theys, Dan Tong, François Hendrick, Qiang Zhang, and Michel Van Roozendael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 18063–18078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-18063-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-18063-2018, 2018
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In the last decade, four temporal regimes of SO2 in China have been identified. After an initial rise, SO2 undergoes two sharp drops in 2007–2008 and 2014–2016, during which 5-year rebounding is sustained. Different mechanisms are tied to North and South China. The industrial emission is responsible for SO2 variation in North China, while in South China the meteorological conditions make a large contribution. The result is crucial to the understanding of SO2 changes and future polices.
Alba Lorente, K. Folkert Boersma, Piet Stammes, L. Gijsbert Tilstra, Andreas Richter, Huan Yu, Said Kharbouche, and Jan-Peter Muller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4509–4529, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4509-2018, 2018
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Light reflected by Earth’s surface is different in each direction: it appears brighter or darker in certain viewing directions. Currently this effect is not accounted for in satellite retrievals; thus surface reflectance climatologies and cloud fractions show an east-west bias across orbits (GOME2,OMI). The effect for NO2 measurements in partly cloudy scenes is substantial. We recommend that this effect in UV/Vis sensors coherently accounted for, and will be especially beneficial for TROPOMI.
Nikos Benas, Jan Fokke Meirink, Karl-Göran Karlsson, Martin Stengel, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-554, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-554, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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In this study we analyse aerosol and cloud changes over South China and investigate their possible interactions. The results show decreasing aerosol loads and increasing liquid clouds. Further analysis of these changes based on various satellite data sets show consistency with the aerosol semi-direct effect, whereby less absorbing aerosols in the cloud layer would lead to an overall decrease in evaporation of cloud droplets, thus increasing cloud amount and cover.
Isabelle De Smedt, Nicolas Theys, Huan Yu, Thomas Danckaert, Christophe Lerot, Steven Compernolle, Michel Van Roozendael, Andreas Richter, Andreas Hilboll, Enno Peters, Mattia Pedergnana, Diego Loyola, Steffen Beirle, Thomas Wagner, Henk Eskes, Jos van Geffen, Klaas Folkert Boersma, and Pepijn Veefkind
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2395–2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2395-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2395-2018, 2018
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This paper introduces the formaldehyde (HCHO) tropospheric vertical column retrieval algorithm implemented in the TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor operational processor, and comprehensively describes its various retrieval steps. Furthermore, algorithmic improvements developed in the framework of the EU FP7-project QA4ECV are described for future updates of the processor. Detailed error estimates are discussed in the light of Copernicus user requirements and needs for validation are highlighted.
Sweta Shah, Olaf N. E. Tuinder, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Adrianus T. J. de Laat, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2345–2360, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2345-2018, 2018
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The depletion of the Antarctic ozone layer and its changing vertical distribution have been monitored closely by satellites in the past decades ever since the Antarctic
ozone holewas discovered in the 1980s. We study and assess the quality of the ozone profiles using SCIAMACHY ultraviolet data and compare them against the ozone sondes.
Maria Elissavet Koukouli, Nicolas Theys, Jieying Ding, Irene Zyrichidou, Bas Mijling, Dimitrios Balis, and Ronald Johannes van der A
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1817–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1817-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1817-2018, 2018
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Within the framework of the EU FP7 project MarcoPolo (Monitoring and Assessment of Regional air quality in China using space Observations), a new SO2 emission inventory over China was calculated using the CHIMERE CTM simulations, 10 years of OMI/Aura total SO2 columns and the bottom-up Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC v1.2).
Tim Vlemmix, Xinrui (Jerry) Ge, Bryan T. G. de Goeij, Len F. van der Wal, Gerard C. J. Otter, Piet Stammes, Ping Wang, Alexis Merlaud, Dirk Schüttemeyer, Andreas C. Meier, J. Pepijn Veefkind, and Pieternel F. Levelt
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-257, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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We present a first analysis of UV/VIS spectral measurements obtained with the Spectrolite Breadboard Instrument (developed by TNO, The Netherlands) during the AROMAPEX campaign held in Berlin in April 2016 (campaign supported by ESA and EUFAR). This new sensor was used to measure air pollution in the form of tropospheric NO2 columns. The study focuses specifically on the retrieval of surface reflectances, an important intermediate step towards the final product.
Yang Wang, Steffen Beirle, Johannes Lampel, Mariliza Koukouli, Isabelle De Smedt, Nicolas Theys, Ang Li, Dexia Wu, Pinhua Xie, Cheng Liu, Michel Van Roozendael, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5007–5033, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5007-2017, 2017
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A long-term MAX-DOAS measurement from 2011 to 2014 was operated in Wuxi, part of the most industrialized area of the Yangtze River delta region of China. The tropospheric VCDs and vertical profiles of NO2, SO2 and HCHO derived from the MAX-DOAS are used to validate the products derived from OMI and GOME-2A/B by different scientific teams (daily- and bimonthly-averaged data). We investigate the effects of clouds, aerosols and a priori profile shapes on satellite retrievals of tropospheric VCDs.
Anja Schönhardt, Andreas Richter, Nicolas Theys, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4857–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4857-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4857-2017, 2017
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Iodine monoxide, IO, is observed in satellite measurements following the eruption of the Kasatochi volcano, Alaska, in August 2008. Large IO columns are detected by SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT and by GOME-2 on MetOp-A for several days. IO amounts are approximately 1 order of magnitude smaller than those of BrO. Details in the spatial distributions differ between IO, BrO and sulfur dioxide, SO2. The total mass of IO in the volcanic plume is determined to be on the order of 10 Mg.
Adrianus de Laat, Eric Defer, Julien Delanoë, Fabien Dezitter, Amanda Gounou, Alice Grandin, Anthony Guignard, Jan Fokke Meirink, Jean-Marc Moisselin, and Frédéric Parol
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 1359–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1359-2017, 2017
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In-flight icing is an important aviation hazard which is still poorly understood, but consensus is that the presence of high ice water content is a necessary condition. For the European High Altitude Ice Crystals project a geostationary satellite remote-sensing mask has been developed for detection of atmospheric cloud environments where high ice water content is likely to occur. The mask performs satisfactory when compared against independent satellite ice water content measurements.
Alba Lorente, K. Folkert Boersma, Huan Yu, Steffen Dörner, Andreas Hilboll, Andreas Richter, Mengyao Liu, Lok N. Lamsal, Michael Barkley, Isabelle De Smedt, Michel Van Roozendael, Yang Wang, Thomas Wagner, Steffen Beirle, Jin-Tai Lin, Nickolay Krotkov, Piet Stammes, Ping Wang, Henk J. Eskes, and Maarten Krol
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 759–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-759-2017, 2017
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Choices and assumptions made to represent the state of the atmosphere introduce an uncertainty of 42 % in the air mass factor calculation in trace gas satellite retrievals in polluted regions. The AMF strongly depends on the choice of a priori trace gas profile, surface albedo data set and the correction method to account for clouds and aerosols. We call for well-designed validation exercises focusing on situations when AMF structural uncertainty has the highest impact on satellite retrievals.
Ronald J. van der A, Bas Mijling, Jieying Ding, Maria Elissavet Koukouli, Fei Liu, Qing Li, Huiqin Mao, and Nicolas Theys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1775–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1775-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1775-2017, 2017
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The SO2 concentrations and NOx emissions over China derived from satellite observations are compared with the national fossil fuel consumption and air quality regulations. It is shown that not only NO2 concentrations but also NOx emissions in all Chinese provinces decreased in the last 2 years. We conclude that without the air quality regulations the SO2 concentrations would be about 2.5 times higher and the NO2 concentrations would be at least 25 % higher than they are today in China.
Tobias Sirch, Luca Bugliaro, Tobias Zinner, Matthias Möhrlein, and Margarita Vazquez-Navarro
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 409–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-409-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-409-2017, 2017
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A novel approach for the nowcasting of clouds and direct normal irradiance (DNI) based on the geostationary satellite MSG is presented. The basis of the algorithm is an optical flow method to derive cloud motion vectors for low and high level clouds separately. DNI is calculated from the forecasted optical thickness of the clouds. Validation against MSG observations shows good performance: compared to persistence an improvement of forecast horizon by a factor of 2 is reached for 2 h forecasts.
Ulrich Schumann, Robert Baumann, Darrel Baumgardner, Sarah T. Bedka, David P. Duda, Volker Freudenthaler, Jean-Francois Gayet, Andrew J. Heymsfield, Patrick Minnis, Markus Quante, Ehrhard Raschke, Hans Schlager, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Christiane Voigt, and Zhien Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 403–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-403-2017, 2017
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The initially linear clouds often seen behind aircraft are known as contrails. Contrails are prototype cirrus clouds forming under well-known conditions, but with less certain life cycle and climate effects. This paper collects contrail data from a large set of measurements and compares them among each other and with models. The observations show consistent contrail properties over a wide range of aircraft and atmosphere conditions. The dataset is available for further research.
Nicolas Theys, Isabelle De Smedt, Huan Yu, Thomas Danckaert, Jeroen van Gent, Christoph Hörmann, Thomas Wagner, Pascal Hedelt, Heiko Bauer, Fabian Romahn, Mattia Pedergnana, Diego Loyola, and Michel Van Roozendael
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 119–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-119-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-119-2017, 2017
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This paper provides a thorough description of the algorithm to retrieve SO2 columns from TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor measurements. The different algorithmic steps including error analysis are detailed. Scientific verification of the algorithm and validation needs are also discussed.
Vitali E. Fioletov, Chris A. McLinden, Nickolay Krotkov, Can Li, Joanna Joiner, Nicolas Theys, Simon Carn, and Mike D. Moran
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11497–11519, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11497-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11497-2016, 2016
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We introduce the first space-based catalogue of SO2 emission sources seen by OMI. The inventory contains about 500 sources. They account for about a half of all SO2 emissions; the remaining half is likely related to sources emitting less than 30 kt yr−1 and not detected by OMI. The sources are grouped by type (volcanoes, power plants, oil- and gas-related sources, and smelters) and country. The catalogue presented herein can be used for verification of available SO2 emission inventories.
Marie Boichu, Isabelle Chiapello, Colette Brogniez, Jean-Christophe Péré, Francois Thieuleux, Benjamin Torres, Luc Blarel, Augustin Mortier, Thierry Podvin, Philippe Goloub, Nathalie Söhne, Lieven Clarisse, Sophie Bauduin, François Hendrick, Nicolas Theys, Michel Van Roozendael, and Didier Tanré
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10831–10845, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10831-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10831-2016, 2016
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Bárðarbunga eruption emitted huge amounts of sulfur into the lower troposphere causing an unprecedented air pollution in the modern era. A wealth of remote sensing and in situ data allows us to jointly analyse the dynamics of volcanic SO2 and sulfate aerosols. Based on this panel of observations, success and challenges in simulating such volcanogenic long-range pollution events are exposed, focusing on the boundary layer dynamics.
Martin de Graaf, Holger Sihler, Lieuwe G. Tilstra, and Piet Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3607–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3607-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3607-2016, 2016
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The shapes and sizes of the FoV from the OMI satellite instrument were determined with extensive lab tests but never verified after launch. Here, collocated measurements from MODIS, flying in formation, were used to find the most optimal shape of the OMI FoV. This shape is not quadrangular, as suggested by the provided corner coordinates of a pixel, but rather super-Gaussian shaped and overlapping with the FoV of neighbouring pixels.
Birthe Marie Steensen, Michael Schulz, Nicolas Theys, and Hilde Fagerli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9745–9760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9745-2016, 2016
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The Bardarbunga volcanic fissure during the second half of 2014 caused large amounts of SO2 emission. The paper studies the effects of this increase in pollution levels over Europe during the first 3 months of the eruption with a dispersion model. The model results are compared to satellite and surface concentration observations. The biggest differences are found in Iceland and on the coast of northern Norway. For the average pollution levels over Europe, Iceland is located too far away.
Dimitris Balis, Maria-Elissavet Koukouli, Nikolaos Siomos, Spyridon Dimopoulos, Lucia Mona, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Franco Marenco, Lieven Clarisse, Lucy J. Ventress, Elisa Carboni, Roy G. Grainger, Ping Wang, Gijsbert Tilstra, Ronald van der A, Nicolas Theys, and Claus Zehner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5705–5720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5705-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5705-2016, 2016
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The ESA-funded SACS-2 and SMASH projects developed and improved dedicated satellite-derived ash plume and sulfur dioxide level assessments. These estimates were validated using ground-based and aircraft lidar measurements. The validation results are promising for most satellite products and are within the estimated uncertainties of each of the comparative data sets. The IASI data show a better consistency concerning the ash optical depth and ash layer height.
Sophie Bauduin, Lieven Clarisse, Juliette Hadji-Lazaro, Nicolas Theys, Cathy Clerbaux, and Pierre-François Coheur
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 721–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-721-2016, 2016
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The paper presents the development of a new retrieval scheme to infer near-surface sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations at a global scale from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). It demonstrates the capability of such an instrument to globally monitor anthropogenic SO2 pollution in the case of favourable geophysical conditions, especially high thermal contrast and low humidity.
A.-M. Blechschmidt, A. Richter, J. P. Burrows, L. Kaleschke, K. Strong, N. Theys, M. Weber, X. Zhao, and A. Zien
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1773-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1773-2016, 2016
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A comprehensive case study of a comma-shaped bromine monoxide plume in the Arctic, which was transported by a polar cyclone and was observed by the GOME-2 satellite sensor over several days, is presented. By making combined use of different kinds of satellite data and numerical models, we demonstrate the important role of the frontal weather system in favouring the bromine activation cycle and blowing snow production, which may have acted as a bromine source during the bromine explosion event.
S. Hassinen, D. Balis, H. Bauer, M. Begoin, A. Delcloo, K. Eleftheratos, S. Gimeno Garcia, J. Granville, M. Grossi, N. Hao, P. Hedelt, F. Hendrick, M. Hess, K.-P. Heue, J. Hovila, H. Jønch-Sørensen, N. Kalakoski, A. Kauppi, S. Kiemle, L. Kins, M. E. Koukouli, J. Kujanpää, J.-C. Lambert, R. Lang, C. Lerot, D. Loyola, M. Pedergnana, G. Pinardi, F. Romahn, M. van Roozendael, R. Lutz, I. De Smedt, P. Stammes, W. Steinbrecht, J. Tamminen, N. Theys, L. G. Tilstra, O. N. E. Tuinder, P. Valks, C. Zerefos, W. Zimmer, and I. Zyrichidou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 383–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-383-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-383-2016, 2016
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The three GOME-2 instruments will provide unique and long data sets for atmospheric research and applications. The complete time period will be 2007–2022, including the period of ozone depletion as well as the beginning of ozone layer recovery. The GOME-2 products (ozone, trace gases, aerosols and UV radiation) are important for ozone chemistry, air quality studies, climate modeling, policy monitoring and hazard warnings. The processing and dissemination is done by EUMETSAT O3M SAF project.
I. De Smedt, T. Stavrakou, F. Hendrick, T. Danckaert, T. Vlemmix, G. Pinardi, N. Theys, C. Lerot, C. Gielen, C. Vigouroux, C. Hermans, C. Fayt, P. Veefkind, J.-F. Müller, and M. Van Roozendael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12519–12545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12519-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12519-2015, 2015
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We present the new version of the BIRA-IASB algorithm for the retrieval of H2CO columns from OMI and GOME-2A and B measurements. Validation results at seven stations in Europe, China and Africa confirm the capacity of the satellite measurements to resolve diurnal variations in H2CO columns. Furthermore, vertical profiles derived from MAX-DOAS measurements in Beijing and in Bujumbura are used for a more detailed validation exercise. Finally trends are estimated using 10 years of OMI observations.
M. J. M. Penning de Vries, S. Beirle, C. Hörmann, J. W. Kaiser, P. Stammes, L. G. Tilstra, O. N. E. Tuinder, and T. Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10597–10618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10597-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10597-2015, 2015
M. Vázquez-Navarro, H. Mannstein, and S. Kox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8739–8749, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8739-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8739-2015, 2015
A. T. J. de Laat, R. J. van der A, and M. van Weele
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 79–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-79-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-79-2015, 2015
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Recent research suggests the Antarctic ozone hole has started to shrink due to decreasing ozone-depleting substances. Because it could be questioned how robust these results are, we provide an assessment of uncertainties in both the underlying ozone observational records and the detection-attribution method. Although Antarctic ozone concentrations are definitely increasing slowly, the formal identification of recovery is not yet justified, although this will likely become possible this decade.
A. T. J. de Laat, I. Aben, M. Deeter, P. Nédélec, H. Eskes, J.-L. Attié, P. Ricaud, R. Abida, L. El Amraoui, and J. Landgraf
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3783–3799, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3783-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3783-2014, 2014
T. Wang, F. Hendrick, P. Wang, G. Tang, K. Clémer, H. Yu, C. Fayt, C. Hermans, C. Gielen, J.-F. Müller, G. Pinardi, N. Theys, H. Brenot, and M. Van Roozendael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11149–11164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11149-2014, 2014
L. G. Tilstra, R. Lang, R. Munro, I. Aben, and P. Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2047–2059, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2047-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2047-2014, 2014
P. Wang and P. Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1331–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1331-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1331-2014, 2014
H. Brenot, N. Theys, L. Clarisse, J. van Geffen, J. van Gent, M. Van Roozendael, R. van der A, D. Hurtmans, P.-F. Coheur, C. Clerbaux, P. Valks, P. Hedelt, F. Prata, O. Rasson, K. Sievers, and C. Zehner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1099–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1099-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1099-2014, 2014
L. Clarisse, P.-F. Coheur, N. Theys, D. Hurtmans, and C. Clerbaux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3095–3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3095-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3095-2014, 2014
J.-T. Lin, R. V. Martin, K. F. Boersma, M. Sneep, P. Stammes, R. Spurr, P. Wang, M. Van Roozendael, K. Clémer, and H. Irie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1441–1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1441-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1441-2014, 2014
J. F. Meirink, R. A. Roebeling, and P. Stammes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2495–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2495-2013, 2013
N. Theys, R. Campion, L. Clarisse, H. Brenot, J. van Gent, B. Dils, S. Corradini, L. Merucci, P.-F. Coheur, M. Van Roozendael, D. Hurtmans, C. Clerbaux, S. Tait, and F. Ferrucci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5945–5968, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5945-2013, 2013
A. E. Jones, E. W. Wolff, N. Brough, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, R. Weller, M. Yela, M. Navarro-Comas, H. A. Ochoa, and N. Theys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1457–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1457-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1457-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions
“More poison than words can describe”: what did people die of after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland?
Automating tephra fall building damage assessment using deep learning
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
Where will the next flank eruption at Etna occur? An updated spatial probabilistic assessment
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015 eruption
Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation
Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results
Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience
Lightning and electrical activity during the Shiveluch volcano eruption on 16 November 2014
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, 2024
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Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter (now X) posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show that even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people. Earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact, but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
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After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Eleanor Tennant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Victoria Miller, Richard Robertson, Bihan Wen, Sang-Ho Yun, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-81, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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After a volcanic eruption, assessing building damage quickly is vital for response and recovery. Traditional post-event damage assessment methods such as ground surveys, are often time-consuming and resource-intensive, hindering rapid response and recovery efforts. To overcome this, we have developed an automated approach that uses UAV acquired optical images and deep learning to rapidly generate spatial building damage information.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
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Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2624, 2023
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In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely, in the future, flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of the past flank eruptive fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
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Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
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The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
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A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
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Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
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Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
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Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
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The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
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In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
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We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
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We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
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We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
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This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
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There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
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Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
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The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
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This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
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Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
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Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
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At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, 2021
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We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
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This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
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Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
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Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
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This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
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The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, 2020
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Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
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Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
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In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
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Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
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The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
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At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
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The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
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This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
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Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
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Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
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The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Ana Graciela Ulke, Marcela M. Torres Brizuela, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2159–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, 2016
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The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, 2016
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We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
Rosario Vázquez, Lucia Capra, and Velio Coviello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, 2016
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We present the morphological changes experienced by Montegrande ravine (Volcán de Colima, Mexico) during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. A total of 11 lahars occurred during this period of time, and their erosion/deposition effects were quantified by means of cross sections and rainfall analysis. The major factors controlling the E/D rates are the channel-bed slope, the cross-section width, the flow depth and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall.
Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.
Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016
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Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.
Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, 2016
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Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
Boris M. Shevtsov, Pavel P. Firstov, Nina V. Cherneva, Robert H. Holzworth, and Renat R. Akbashev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 871–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, 2016
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The Kamchatka volcano group is located near populated areas and international air routes. Due to this, explosive eruptions are a serious threat to their security. To decrease the risks, effective systems for remote detection of eruptions are necessary. WWLLN resolution is enough for the remote sensing of the volcano lightning activity in the early stage of ash cloud formation a few minutes after the eruption when electrification proceeds the most intensively.
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Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds...
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