Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-679-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-679-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Mar 2019
Research article |
| 29 Mar 2019
| 29 Mar 2019
Changes in ground deformation prior to and following a large urban landslide in La Paz, Bolivia, revealed by advanced InSAR
Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University
Drive, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, Canada
Bernhard T. Rabus
School of Engineering Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888
University Drive, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, Canada
John J. Clague
Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University
Drive, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, Canada
Reginald L. Hermanns
Geological Survey of Norway, P.O. Box 6315 Sluppen, Trondheim, 7490, Norway
Department of Geoscience and Petroleum, Norwegian University of
Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway
Marco-Antonio Guzmán
Instituto de Investigaciones Geológicas, Universidad Mayor de San
Andrés, Pabellon 3, Campus Universitario Cota Cota, La Paz, 35140, Bolivia
Estela Minaya
Observatorio San Calixto, Indaburo 944, La Paz, 12656, Bolivia
Related authors
No articles found.
Greta H. Wells, Þorsteinn Sæmundsson, Finnur Pálsson, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Reginald L. Hermanns, and Snævarr Guðmundsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1913–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1913-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1913-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat elevates the risk of landslides released into proglacial lakes, which can trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study maps proglacial lake evolution and GLOF hazard scenarios at Fjallsjökull glacier, Iceland. Lake volume increased from 1945 to 2021 and is estimated to triple over the next century. Three slopes are prone to landslides that may trigger GLOFs. Results will mitigate flood hazard at this popular tourism site and advance GLOF research in Iceland and globally.
Jayson Eppler, Bernhard Rabus, and Peter Morse
The Cryosphere, 16, 1497–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1497-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1497-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new method for mapping changes in the snow water equivalent (SWE) of dry snow based on differences between time-repeated synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. It correlates phase differences with variations in the topographic slope which allows the method to work without any "reference" targets within the imaged area and without having to numerically unwrap the spatial phase maps. This overcomes the key challenges faced in using SAR interferometry for SWE change mapping.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Thierry Oppikofer, Reginald L. Hermanns, Vegard U. Jakobsen, Martina Böhme, Pierrick Nicolet, and Ivanna Penna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3179–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Damming of rivers is an important secondary effect of landslides due to upstream flooding and possible outburst floods in case of dam failure. For preliminary regional hazard and risk assessment of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway, we developed semi-empirical relationships to assess the height and stability of dams based on an inventory of 69 dams formed by rock slope failures in southwestern Norway and published landslide dam inventories from other parts of the world.
Florence Magnin, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, Paula Hilger, and Reginald L. Hermanns
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1019–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes the first permafrost (i.e. ground with temperature permanently < 0 °C) map covering the steep rock slopes of Norway. It was created by using rock temperature data collected at the near surface of 25 rock walls spread across the country between 2010 and 2018. The map shows that permafrost mostly exists above 1300–1400 m a.s.l. in southern Norway and close to sea level in northern Norway. The results have strong potential for the study of rock wall sliding and failure.
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Comparative analysis of μ(I) and Voellmy-type grain flow rheologies in geophysical mass flows: insights from theoretical and real case studies
Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling results using the modelling code r.avaflow
From rockfall source area identification to susceptibility zonation: a proposed workflow tested on El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)
Brief communication: Visualizing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling using bivariate mapping
Topographic controls on landslide mobility: modeling hurricane-induced landslide runout and debris-flow inundation in Puerto Rico
Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology
A participatory approach to determine the use of road cut slope design guidelines in Nepal to lessen landslides
An integrated method for assessing vulnerability of buildings caused by debris flows in mountainous areas
Identifying unrecognised risks to life from debris flows
Predicting the thickness of shallow landslides in Switzerland using machine learning
Unraveling landslide failure mechanisms with seismic signal analysis for enhanced pre-survey understanding
Comparison of conditioning factor classification criteria in large-scale statistically based landslide susceptibility models
Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems
Predicting deep-seated landslide displacement on Taiwan's Lushan through the integration of convolutional neural networks and the Age of Exploration-Inspired Optimizer
Limit analysis of earthquake-induced landslides considering two strength envelopes
The vulnerability of buildings to a large-scale debris flow and outburst flood hazard cascade that occurred on 30 August 2020 in Ganluo, southwest China
Optimizing rainfall-triggered landslide thresholds for daily landslide hazard warning in the Three Gorges Reservoir area
Is higher resolution always better? Open-access DEM comparison for Slope Units delineation and regional landslide prediction
Brief communication: Monitoring impending slope failure with very high-resolution spaceborne synthetic aperture radar
Size scaling of large landslides from incomplete inventories
InSAR-informed in situ monitoring for deep-seated landslides: insights from El Forn (Andorra)
Brief Communication: AI-driven rapid landslides mapping following the 2024 Hualien City Earthquake in Taiwan
A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh–Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Transformations in Exposure to Debris Flows in Post-Earthquake Sichuan, China
Large-scale assessment of rainfall-induced landslide hazard based on hydrometeorological information: application to Partenio Massif (Italy)
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
A regional analysis of paraglacial landslide activation in southern coastal Alaska
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Brief Communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Yu Zhuang, Brian W. McArdell, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1901–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1901-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1901-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The experimentally based μ(I) rheology, widely used for gravitational mass flows, is reinterpreted as a Voellmy-type relationship to highlight its link to grain flow theory. Through block modeling and case studies, we establish its equivalence to μ(R) rheology. μ(I) models shear thinning but fails to capture acceleration and deceleration processes and deposit structure. Incorporating fluctuation energy in μ(R) improves accuracy, refining mass flow modeling and revealing practical challenges.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1841–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested the effect of nine key input parameters on the modelling results using r.avaflow. Our results highlight that GLOF modelling results are subject to uncertainty from the multiple input parameters. The variation in the volume of mass movement entering the lake causes the highest uncertainty in the modelled GLOF, followed by the DEM dataset and the origin of mass movement.
Roberto Sarro, Mauro Rossi, Paola Reichenbach, and Rosa María Mateos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1459–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1459-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a novel systematic workflow that integrates source area identification, deterministic runout modelling, the classification of runout outputs to derive susceptibility zonation, and robust procedures for validation and comparison. The proposed approach enables the integration and comparison of different modelling, introducing a robust and consistent workflow/methodology that allows us to derive and verify rockfall susceptibility zonation, considering different steps.
Matthias Schlögl, Anita Graser, Raphael Spiekermann, Jasmin Lampert, and Stefan Steger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1425-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1425-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Communicating uncertainties is a crucial yet challenging aspect of spatial modelling – especially in applied research, where results inform decisions. In disaster risk reduction, susceptibility maps for natural hazards guide planning and risk assessment, yet their uncertainties are often overlooked. We present a new type of landslide susceptibility map that visualizes both susceptibility and associated uncertainty alongside guidelines for creating such maps using free and open-source software.
Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, and Jonathan P. Perkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1229–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide runout zones are the areas downslope or downstream of landslide initiation. People often live and work in these areas, leading to property damage and deaths. Landslide runout may occur on hillslopes or in channels, requiring different modeling approaches. We develop methods to identify potential runout zones and apply these methods to identify susceptible areas for three municipalities in Puerto Rico.
Jonathan Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, and W. Paul Burgess
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1037–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall-induced landslides result in deaths and economic losses annually across the globe. However, it is unclear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to dynamically map landslide-affected areas, and we compare this to meteorological estimates of storm severity. We find that preconditioning by earlier storms and the location of rainfall bursts, rather than atmospheric storm strength, dictate landslide magnitude and pattern.
Ellen B. Robson, Bhim Kumar Dahal, and David G. Toll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 949–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-949-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Slopes excavated alongside roads in Nepal frequently fail (a landslide), resulting in substantial losses. Our participatory approach study with road engineers aimed to assess how road slope design guidelines in Nepal can be improved. Our study revealed inconsistent guideline adherence due to a lack of user-friendliness and inadequate training. We present general recommendations to enhance road slope management, as well as technical recommendations to improve the guidelines.
Chenchen Qiu and Xueyu Geng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-709-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an integrated method using a combination of a physical vulnerability matrix and a machine learning model to estimate the potential physical damage and associated economic loss caused by future debris flows based on collected historical data on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region.
Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 647–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris-flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows that pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the “window of non-recognition” where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 467–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-467-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a machine-learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables, including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology, and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best-performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by at least 20 % compared to previous models.
Jui-Ming Chang, Che-Ming Yang, Wei-An Chao, Chin-Shang Ku, Ming-Wan Huang, Tung-Chou Hsieh, and Chi-Yao Hung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-451-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study on the Cilan landslide (CL) demonstrates the utilization of seismic analysis results as preliminary data for geologists during field surveys. Spectrograms revealed that the first event of CL consisted of four sliding failures accompanied by a gradual reduction in landslide volume. The second and third events were minor toppling and rockfalls. Then combining the seismological-based knowledge and field survey results, the spatiotemporal variation in landslide evolution is proposed.
Marko Sinčić, Sanja Bernat Gazibara, Mauro Rossi, and Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 183–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-183-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on classifying continuous landslide conditioning factors for susceptibility modelling, which resulted in 54 landslide susceptibility models that tested 11 classification criteria in combination with 5 statistical methods. The novelty of the research is that using stretched landslide conditioning factor values results in models with higher accuracy and that certain statistical methods are more sensitive to the landslide conditioning factor classification criteria than others.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this paper, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing 8 years of data from Taiwan's Lushan, improving early warning and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.
Di Wu, Yuke Wang, and Xin Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4617–4630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a 3D limit analysis for seismic stability of soil slopes to address the influence of earthquakes on slope stabilities with nonlinear and linear criteria. Comparison results illustrate that the use of a linear envelope leads to the non-negligible overestimation of steep-slope stability, and this overestimation will be significant with increasing earthquakes. Earthquakes have a smaller influence on slope slip surfaces with a nonlinear envelope than those with a linear envelope.
Li Wei, Kaiheng Hu, Shuang Liu, Lan Ning, Xiaopeng Zhang, Qiyuan Zhang, and Md. Abdur Rahim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4179–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The damage patterns of the buildings were classified into three types: (I) buried by primary debris flow, (II) inundated by secondary dam-burst flood, and (III) sequentially buried by debris flow and inundated by dam-burst flood. The threshold of the impact pressures in Zones (II) and (III) where vulnerability is equal to 1 is 84 kPa and 116 kPa, respectively. Heavy damage occurs at an impact pressure greater than 50 kPa, while slight damage occurs below 30 kPa.
Bo Peng and Xueling Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3991–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy-rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.
Mahnoor Ahmed, Giacomo Titti, Sebastiano Trevisani, Lisa Borgatti, and Mirko Francioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Elevation models are compared with a true dataset for terrain characteristics which selects a better ranking model to test with different parameters for partitioning the terrain. The partitioning of the terrain is measured by how well a partitioned unit can support the mapped landslide area and number of landslides. The effect of this relationship is reflected with different metrics in the susceptibility maps.
Andrea Manconi, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, Qiaoping Zhang, and Valentyn Tolpekin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3833–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research reveals the power of high-resolution satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery for slope deformation monitoring. Using ICEYE data over the Brienz/Brinzauls instability, we measured surface velocity and mapped the landslide event with unprecedented precision. This underscores the potential of satellite SAR for timely hazard assessment in remote regions and aiding disaster mitigation efforts effectively.
Oliver Korup, Lisa V. Luna, and Joaquin V. Ferrer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain mostly uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental settings.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3651–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the use of interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) alongside in situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). Comparing InSAR with borehole data suggests a key trade-off between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error in a remote sensing re-creation of ground motion over the landslide.
Lorenzo Nava, Alessandro Novellino, Chengyong Fang, Kushanav Bhuyan, Kathryn Leeming, Itahisa Gonzalez Alvarez, Claire Dashwood, Sophie Doward, Rahul Chahel, Emma McAllister, Sansar Raj Meena, and Filippo Catani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
On April 2, 2024, a Mw 7.4 earthquake hit Taiwan’s eastern coast, causing extensive landslides and damage. We used automated methods combining Earth Observation (EO) data with Artificial Intelligence (AI) to quickly inventory the landslides. This approach identified 7,090 landslides over 75 km2 within 3 hours of acquiring the EO imagery. The study highlights AI’s role in improving landslide detection and understanding earthquake-landslide interactions for better hazard mitigation.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3357–3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The initiation of debris flows is significantly influenced by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model and aimed at estimating intensity–duration (ID) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically based framework is particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data are scarce.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on the NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy rainfall in 2022 . Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Isabelle Utley, Tristram Hales, Ekbal Hussain, and Xuanmei Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed debris flows in Sichuan, China, using satellite data and simulations to assess check dam efficacy. Our study found whilst check dams can mitigate smaller flows, they may increase exposure to extreme events, with up to 40 % of structures in some areas affected. Urban development and reliance on check dams can create a false sense of security, raising exposure during large debris flows and highlights the need for risk management and infrastructure planning in hazard-prone areas.
Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero, Pasquale Marino, Abdullah Abdullah, Giovanni Francesco Santonastaso, and Roberto Greco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Local thresholds for landslide forecasting, combining hydrologic predisposing factors and rainfall features, are developed from a physically based model of a slope. To extend their application to a wide area, uncertainty due to spatial variability of geomorphological and hydrologic variables is introduced. The obtained hydrometeorological thresholds, integrating root zone soil moisture and aquifer water level with rainfall depth, outperform thresholds based on rain intensity and duration.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jane Walden, Mylène Jacquemart, Bretwood Higman, Romain Hugonnet, Andrea Manconi, and Daniel Farinotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a study of eight landslides adjacent to glaciers in Alaska, we found that landslide movement increased as the glacier retreated past the landslide at four sites. Movement at other sites coincided with heavy precipitation or increased glacier thinning, and two sites showed little-to-no motion. We suggest that landslides next to water-terminating glaciers may be especially vulnerable to acceleration, which we guess is due to faster retreat rates and water replacing ice at the landslide edge.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Alexandre Dunant, Amy L. Johnson, Erin L. Harvey, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Simon J. Dadson, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Anuradha Puri, and Nick J. Rosser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. In this study, we show that there is a poor correlation between building damage and deaths from landslides- such that the deadliest landslides do not always destroy the most buildings and vice versa. This has important implications for our management on landslide risk.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Cited articles
Aguilar, O. Q.: Detección de cambios de uso del suelo en la zona de
Callapa afectada por el megadeslizamiento (La Paz – Bolivia), in:
Proceedings of the XIV Encuentro de Geógrafos de América Latina,
Lima, Peru, 8–11 April 2013, Encuentro de Geógrafos de América
Latina, Lima, Peru, 20 pp., 2013.
Ahlfeld, F.: Reseña geológica de la Cuenca de La Paz – Parte 1,
Instituto Boliviano de Ingeniería de Minas y Geología, 2,
11–15, 1945a.
Ahlfeld, F.: Reseña geológica de la Cuenca de La Paz – Parte 2,
Instituto Boliviano de Ingeniería de Minas y Geología, 2,
11–15, 1945b.
Anzoleaga, O., Malatrait, A. M., Michalski, E. R., Bles, J. L., Otazo, N., and
Walgenwitz, F.: Características geomtécnicas de la cuenca de La Paz
y alrededores, Plan de desarrollo Urbano para la ciudad de La Paz, Honorable
Alcaldía Municipal de La Paz, Bolvia, Informe Geológico no. 15, 107
pp., 1977.
Baron, I. and Supper, R.: Application and reliability of techniques for landslide site investigation, monitoring and
early warning – outcomes from a questionnaire study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3157–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3157-2013, 2013.
Berardino, P., Fornaro, G., Lanari, R., and Sansosti, E.: A new algorithm
for surface deformation monitoring based on small baseline differential SAR
interferograms, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 40, 2375–2383,
https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2002.803792, 2002.
Bles, J. L., Alvarez, A., Anzoleaga, O., Ballivián, O., Bustillos, O.,
Hochstatter, H., Malatrait, A. M., and Otazo, N.: Características
litoestratigráficas de la cuenca de La Paz y alrededores, Plan de
desarrollo Urbano para la ciudad de La Paz, Honorable Alcaldía
Municipal de La Paz, Bolivia, Informe Geológico no. 5, 35 pp., 1977.
Brideau, M. A. and Roberts, N. J.: Mass movements in bedrock, in: Landslides Hazards, Risks and Disasters, edited by: Davies, T.
and Shroder, J. F., Academic
Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 43–90,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-396452-6.00003-3, 2015.
Carlà, T., Farina, P., Intrieri, E., Ketizmen, H., and Casagli, N.:
Integration of ground-based radar and satellite InSAR data for the analysis
of an unexpected slope failure in an open-pit mine, Eng. Geol., 235, 39–52,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.01.021, 2018.
Chigira, M. and Kiho, K.: Deep-seated rockslide–avalanches preceded by
mass rock creep of sedimentary rocks in the Akaishi Mountains, Central
Japan, Eng. Geol., 38, 221–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(94)90039-6, 1994.
Colesanti, C. and Wasowski, J.: Investigating landslides with space-borne
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry, Eng. Geol., 88, 173–199,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.09.013, 2006.
Confuorto, P., Di Martire, D., Centolanza, G., Iglesias, R., Mallorqui,
J. J., Novellino, A., Plank, S., Ramondini, M., Thuro, K., and Calcaterra,
D.: Post-failure evolution analysis of a rainfall-triggered landslide by
multi-temporal interferometry SAR approaches integrated with geotechnical
analysis, Remote Sens. Environ., 188, 51–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.11.002,
2017.
Cornelius, R. R. and Scott, P. A.: A materials failure relation of
accelerating creep as empirical description of damage accumulation, Rock
Mech. Rock Eng., 26, 233–252, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01040117, 1993.
Crosta, G. B. and Agliardi, F.: Failure forecast for large rock slides by
surface displacement measurements, Can. Geotech. J., 40, 176–191,
https://doi.org/10.1139/t02-085, 2003.
Crosta, G. B., Hermanns, R. L., Dehls, J., Lari, S., and Sepulveda, S.: Rock
avalanches clusters along the northern Chile coastal scarp, Geomorphology,
289, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.11.024, 2017.
Cruden, D. M. and Varnes, D. J.: Landslide types and processes, in: Landslides Investigation and Mitigation:
Spec. Rep. 247, edited by: Turner,
A. K. and Schuster, L. R., Transportation Res. Board, Washington, D.C., 36–75, 1996.
Dobrovolny, E.: Preliminary report on the geology of the upper La Paz
Valley, U.S. Geol. Surv., Open File Rep., 55–43, 32 pp., 1955.
Dobrovolny, E.: Geología del valle de La Paz, Departamento Nacional de
Geología del Ministerio de Minas y Petroleo, Servicio Geológico de
Bolivia Boletín 3, 152 pp., 1962.
Dobrovolny, E.: A postglacial mudflow of large volume in the La Paz valley,
Bolivia, U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap., 600-C, 130–134, 1968.
Eberhardt, E.: Landslide monitoring: The role of investigative monitoring to
improve understanding and early warning of failure, in: Landslides: Types, Mechanisms and Modeling, edited by: Clague, J. J. and
Stead, D., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, 222–234,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511740367.020, 2012.
Eppler, J. and Rabus, B.: Monitoring urban infrastructure with an adaptive
multilooking InSAR technique, in: Proceedings of the Fringe Workshop,
Frascati, Italy, 19–26 September 2011, European Space Agency Communications
SP-697, Unpagninated CD ROM, 5 pp., 2011.
Federico, A., Popescu, M., and Murianni, A.: Temporal prediction of
landslide occurrence: A possibility or a challenge?, Italian J. Eng. Geol.
Environ., 1, 41–60, https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2015-01.O-04, 2015.
Ferretti, A., Prati, C., and Rocca, F.: Permanent scatterers in SAR
interferometry, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 39, 8–20, https://doi.org/10.1109/36.898661,
2001.
Ferretti, A., Fumagalli, A., Novali, F., Prati, C., Rocca, F., and Rucci,
A.: A new algorithm for processing interferometric data-stacks – SqueeSAR,
IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 49, 3460–3470, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2011.2124465,
2011.
Gischig, V., Amann, F., Moore, J. R., Loew, S., Eisenbreiss, H., and
Stempfhuber, W.: Composite rock slope kinematics at the current Randa
instability, Switzerland, based on remote sensing and numerical modeling,
Eng. Geol., 118, 37–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2010.11.006, 2011.
Handwerger, A. L., Huang, M.-H., Fielding, E. J., Booth, A. M., and
Bürgmann, R.: A shift from drought to extreme rainfall drives a stable
landslide to catastrophic failure, Sci. Rep., 9, 1569,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38300-0 1, 2019.
Hermanns, R. L. and Longva, O.: Rapid rock-slope failures, in: Landslides: Types, Mechanisms and
Modeling, edited by: Clague,
J. J. and Stead, D.,
Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 59–70,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511740367.007, 2012.
Hermanns, R. L., Blikra, L. H., Naumann, M., Nilsen, B., Panthi, K. K.,
Stromeyer, D., and Longva, O.: Examples of multiple rock-slope collapses from
Köfels (Ötz valley, Austria) and western Norway, Eng. Geol., 83,
94–108, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.06.026, 2006.
Hermanns, R. L., Dehls, J. F., Guzmán, M.-A., Roberts, N. J., Clague, J. J.,
Cazas Saavedra, A., and Quenta, G.: Relation of recent megalandslides to
prehistoric events in the city of La Paz, Bolivia, in: Proceedings of the
2nd North American Symposium on Landslides, 3–8 June 2012, Banff, Alberta,
Volume 1, Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK, 341–347, 2012.
Hermanns, R. L., Oppikofer, T., Anda, E., Blikra, L. H., Böhme, M.,
Bunkholt, H., Crosta, G. B., Dahle, H., Devoli, G., Fischer, L., Jaboyedoff,
M., Loew, S., Sætre, S., and Yugsi Molina, F.: Hazard and risk
classification system for large unstable rock slopes in Norway, in: International Conference on Vajont –
1963–2013, edited by: Genevois,
R. and Prestininzi, A., Italian J. Eng. Geol. Environ., Book Ser., 6, 245–254,
https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2013-06.B-22, 2013a.
Hermanns, R. L., Oppikofer, T., Dahle, H., Eiken, T., Ivy-Ochs, S., and
Blikra, L. H.: Understanding long-term slope deformation for stability
assessment of rock slopes: The case of the Oppstadhornet rockslide, Norway,
in: International Conference on
Vajont – 1963–2013, edited by: Genevois, R. and Prestininzi, A., Italian J. Eng. Geol. Environ., Book Ser., 6, 255–264,
https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2013-06.B-23, 2013b.
Hilger, P., Hermanns, R. L., Gosse, J. C., Jacobs, B., Etzelmüller, B.,
and Krautblatter, M.: Multiple rock-slope failures from Mannen in Romsdal
Valley, western Norway, revealed from Quaternary geological mapping and 10Be
exposure dating, Holocene, 28, 1841–1854,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618798165, 2018.
Intrieri, E., Raspini, F., Fumagalli, A., Lu, P., Del Conte, S., Farina, P.,
Allievi, J., Ferretti, A., and Casagli, N.: The Maoxian landslide as seen
from space: Detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data,
Landslides, 15, 123–133, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0915-7, 2018.
Kalaugher, P. G., Hodgson, R. L. P., and Granger, P.: Pre-failure strains as
precursors of sliding in a coastal mudslide, Q. J. Eng. Geol.
Hydroge., 33, 325–334, https://doi.org/10.1144/qjegh.33.4.325, 2000.
Kilburn, C. R. J. and Petley, D. N.: Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope
collapse; lessons from Vajont, Geomorphology, 54, 21–32,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(03)00052-7, 2003.
Lauknes, T. R., Piyush Shanker, A., Dehls, J. F., Zebker, H. A., Henderson,
I. H. C., and Larsen, Y.: Detailed rockslide mapping in northern Norway with
small baseline and persistent scatterer interferometric SAR time series
methods, Remote Sens. Environ., 114, 2097–2109,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.04.015, 2010.
Lavenu, A.: Néotectonique des sediments plio-quaternaires de l'Altiplano
bolivien (region de La Paz, Ayo Ayo, Umala), Cah. ORSTOM Géol., 10,
115–126, 1978.
Lavenu, A., Bonhomme, M. G., Vatin-Perignon, N., and de Pachtere, P.: Neogene
magmatism in the Bolivian Andes between 16∘ S and 18∘ S:
Stratigraphy and K/Ar geochronology, J. S. Am. Earth Sci., 2, 35–47,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-9811(89)90025-4, 1989.
Moretto, S., Bozzano, F., Esposito, C., Mazzanti, P., and Rocca, A.:
Assessment of landslide pre-failure monitoring and forecasting using
satellite SAR interferometry, Geosciences, 7, 7020036,
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences7020036, 2017.
Moro, M., Chini, M., Saroli, M., Atzori, S., Stramondo, S., and Salvi, S.:
Analysis of large, seismically induced, gravitational deformations imaged by
high-resolution COSMO-SkyMed synthetic aperture radar, Geology, 39,
527–530, https://doi.org/10.1130/G31748.1, 2011.
Necsoiu, M., McGinnis, R. N., and Hooper, D.M.: New insights on the Salmon
Falls Creek Canyon landslide complex based on geomorphological analysis and
multitemporal satellite InSAR techniques, Landslides, 11, 1141–1153,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0523-8, 2014.
O'Hare, G. and Rivas, S.: The landslide hazard and human vulnerability in
La Paz City, Bolivia, Geogr. J., 171, 239–258,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2005.00163.x, 2005.
Petley, D. N., Bulmer, M. K., and Murphy, W.: Patterns of movement in
rotational and translational landslides, Geology, 30, 719–722,
https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2002)030<0719:POMIRA>2.0.CO;2,
2002.
Petley, D. N., Higuchi, T., Petley, D. J., Bulmer, M. H., and Carey, J.:
Development of progressive landslide failure in cohesive materials, Geology,
33, 201–204, https://doi.org/10.1130/G21147.1, 2005.
Quenta, G. and Calle, A.: Diagnostico de estabilidad de la zona Valle de
las Flores, [Proyecto Multinacional Andino: Geociencias para las Comunidades
Andinas], Servicio Nacional de Geología y Tecnico de Minas, La Paz,
Bolivia, 12 pp., 2005.
Quenta, G., Galarza, I., Teran, N., Hermanns, R. L., Cazaz, A., and
García, H.: Deslizamiento traslacional y represamiento en el valle de
Allpacoma, ciudad de La Paz, Bolivia, in: Movimientos en Masa en la
Región Andina – Una Guía para la Evaluación de Amenazas,
Proyecto Multinacional Andino: Geociencias para las Comunidades Andinas,
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Santiago, Chile,
Publicación Geológica Multinacional, no. 4, 230–234, 2007.
Quenta, G., Hermanns, R., Galarza, I., Teran, N., Cazas, A., Caballero, T.,
and García, H.: Deslizamiento y represamiento en el valle de Allpacoma,
in: Experiencias Andinas en Mitigación de Riesgos Geológicos,
Proyecto Multinacional Andino: Geociencias para las Comunidades Andinas,
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Santiago, Chile,
Publicación Geológica Multinacional, no. 6, 295–2833, 2008.
Rabus, B., When, H., and Nolan, M.: The importance of soil moisture and soil
structure for InSAR phase and backscatter, as determined by FDTD modeling,
IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 48, 2421–2429, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2009.2039353,
2010.
Rabus, B., Eppler, J., Sharma J., and Busler, J.: Tunnel monitoring with an
advanced InSAR technique, in: Proceedings of RADAR Sensor Technology XVI,
23–25 April 2012, Baltimore, USA, SPIE Press, Bellingham, WA, 10 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.1117/12.918644, 2012.
Roberts, N. J.: Late Cenozoic geology of La Paz, Bolivia, and its relation to
landslide activity, PhD thesis, Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser
University, Canada, 248 pp., 2016.
Roberts, N. J., Barendregt, R. W., and Clague, J. J.: Multiple tropical Andean
glaciations during a period of late Pliocene warmth, Sci. Rep., 7,
41878, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41878, 2017.
Roberts, N. J., Barendregt, R. W., and Clague, J. J.: Pliocene and Pleistocene
chronostratigraphy of continental sediments underlying the Altiplano at La
Paz, Bolivia, Quarternary Sci. Rev., 189, 105–126,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.008, 2018.
Scanvic, J.-Y. and Girault, F.: Imagerie SPOT-1 et inventaire des
mouvements de terrain: l'exemple de La Paz (Bolivia), Photo Interpretation,
28, 1–20, 1989.
Schlögel, R., Malet, J.-P., Doubre, C., and Lebourg, T.: Structural
control on the kinematics of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide
revealed by L-band InSAR observations, Landslides, 13, 1005–1018,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0623-0, 2016.
Servant, M., Sempere, T., Argollo, J., Bernat, M., Ferand, G., and Lo Bello,
P.: Morphogenèse et soulèvement de la Cordillère Orientale des
Andes de Bolivie au Cénozoïque, CR Acad. Sci., 309,
417–422, 1989.
Voight, B.: A relationship to describe rate-dependant material failure,
Science, 243, 200–203, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.243.4888.200, 1989.
Wasowski, J. and Bovenga, F.: Investigating landslides and unstable slopes
with satellite Multi Temporal Interferometry: Current issues and future
perspectives, Eng. Geol., 174, 103–138,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.03.003, 2014.
Wasowski, J. and Bovenga, F.: Remote sensing of landslide motion with
emphasis on satellite multitemporal interferometry applications: an
overview, in: Landslides Hazards, Risks
and Disasters, edited by: Davies, T. and Shroder, J. F., Academic Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 345–403,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-396452-6.00011-2, 2015.
Short summary
La Paz, Bolivia, experiences frequent damaging landslides. We quantify creep before and after the city’s largest modern landslide using spaceborne InSAR. Creep of ancient landslide deposits increased in rate and extent following failure and extended into adjacent intact materials. Accelerated steady-state creep reflects complex post-failure stress redistribution. Landslide risk in La Paz, which is underlain by many large ancient landslides, may be even greater than previously thought.
La Paz, Bolivia, experiences frequent damaging landslides. We quantify creep before and after...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint