Research article 22 Oct 2018
Research article | 22 Oct 2018
Implementation and validation of a new operational wave forecasting system of the Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service
Michalis Ravdas et al.
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George Petihakis, Leonidas Perivoliotis, Gerasimos Korres, Dionysios Ballas, Constantin Frangoulis, Paris Pagonis, Manolis Ntoumas, Manos Pettas, Antonis Chalkiopoulos, Maria Sotiropoulou, Margarita Bekiari, Alkiviadis Kalampokis, Michalis Ravdas, Evi Bourma, Sylvia Christodoulaki, Anna Zacharioudaki, Dimitris Kassis, Emmanuel Potiris, George Triantafyllou, Kostas Tsiaras, Evangelia Krasakopoulou, Spyros Velanas, and Nikos Zisis
Ocean Sci., 14, 1223–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1223-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1223-2018, 2018
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Integrated oceanic observations on multiple processes including biogeochemistry are scarce. In the eastern Mediterranean (Cretan Sea) the spatiotemporal coverage of such observations has increased with the expansion of the POSEIDON observatory. The observatory addresses scientific questions, provides services to policy makers and society, and serves as a technological test bed. It plays a key role in European and international observing programs, in harmonization procedures and data handling.
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This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
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The assimilation of satellite SST data into ocean models is complex. The temperature of the thin uppermost layer that is measured by satellites may differ from the much thicker upper layer used in numerical models, leading to biased results. This paper shows how canonical correlation analysis can be used to generate observation operators from existing datasets of model states and corresponding observation values. This type of operator can correct for near-surface effects when assimilating SST.
Gerasimos Korres, Dimitra Denaxa, Eric Jansen, Isabelle Mirouze, Sam Pimentel, Wang-Hung Tse, and Andrea Storto
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-158, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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A statistical-dynamical observation operator (SOSSTA) for satellite SST data assimilation able to account for SST diurnal variability, is formulated and implemented into the POSEIDON forecasting system (Aegean Sea). Model experiments where daytime SST retrievals from the SEVIRI infrared radiometer are introduced into the data assimilation procedure through the application of the observation operator, showed an improvement of the POSEIDON modelling system performance.
George Petihakis, Leonidas Perivoliotis, Gerasimos Korres, Dionysios Ballas, Constantin Frangoulis, Paris Pagonis, Manolis Ntoumas, Manos Pettas, Antonis Chalkiopoulos, Maria Sotiropoulou, Margarita Bekiari, Alkiviadis Kalampokis, Michalis Ravdas, Evi Bourma, Sylvia Christodoulaki, Anna Zacharioudaki, Dimitris Kassis, Emmanuel Potiris, George Triantafyllou, Kostas Tsiaras, Evangelia Krasakopoulou, Spyros Velanas, and Nikos Zisis
Ocean Sci., 14, 1223–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1223-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1223-2018, 2018
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Integrated oceanic observations on multiple processes including biogeochemistry are scarce. In the eastern Mediterranean (Cretan Sea) the spatiotemporal coverage of such observations has increased with the expansion of the POSEIDON observatory. The observatory addresses scientific questions, provides services to policy makers and society, and serves as a technological test bed. It plays a key role in European and international observing programs, in harmonization procedures and data handling.
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This paper includes the entire steps and processes to develop a two-way fully coupled atmosphere-ocean wave model (WEW) aiming a better description and understanding of the exchange processes near the ocean surface. WEW offers a more realistic representation of the extreme weather and sea state events over the ocean bodies and finally leads in an overall improved simulations.
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Hira Ashfaq Lodhi, Shoaib Ahmed, and Haider Hasan
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Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
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Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
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In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
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Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Sang-Guk Yum, Hsi-Hsien Wei, and Sung-Hwan Jang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2611–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2611-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2611-2021, 2021
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Developed statistical models to predict the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surge-induced typhoons. Various probability distribution models were applied to find the best fitting to empirical storm-surge data.
Md. Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Xavier Bertin, Laurent Testut, Yann Krien, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Marc Pezerat, and Sazzad Hossain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2523–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, 2021
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The Bay of Bengal is well known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved and computationally costly. Here we show a proof of concept of a real-time, computationally efficient, and physically consistent forecasting system with an application to the recent Supercyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.
Iva Tojčić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2427–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, 2021
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This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations developed in order to help coastal communities prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in the eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
Elisa Lahcene, Ioanna Ioannou, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ryan Paulik, Syamsidik Syamsidik, Frederic Bouchette, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2313–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, 2021
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In Indonesia, tsunamis represent a significant risk to coastal communities and buildings. Therefore, it is fundamental to deeply understand the tsunami source impact on buildings and infrastructure. This work provides a novel understanding of the relationship between wave period, ground shaking, liquefaction events, and potential building damage using tsunami fragility curves. This study represents the first investigation of colossal impacts increasing building damage.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, 2021
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Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Jairo E. Cueto Fonseca, Luis J. Otero Díaz, Silvio R. Ospino Ortiz, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-210, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The article mainly describes the importance of morphological changes on flooding estimation during storms with sea level rise conditions. XBeach and SWAN were the numerical models used to test several case studies of past storms in Cartagena (Colombia). The results indicate that flooding under extreme wave conditions should be approached by considering morphodynamics, ignoring them can underestimate flooding effects. The erosion and flood consequences are intensified by SLR.
Takenori Shimozono
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2093-2021, 2021
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Tsunamis are a major threat to low-lying coastal communities. Suddenly generated from their sources in deep water, tsunamis occasionally undergo tremendous amplification in shallow water. There is a need for efficient ways of predicting coastal tsunami transformation during different disaster management phases. The study proposed a novel and rigorous method based on kernel convolution for fast prediction of onshore tsunami waveforms from the observed/simulated wave data away from the coast.
Ryuichi Kanai, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao, Alan Smith, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-119, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The air pressure created by a tsunami causes a depression in the electron density in the ionosphere. The depression is measured at sparsely distributed, moving, GPS satellite locations. We provide an estimate of the volume of the depression. When applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake in Japan, our method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 minutes of the earthquake, even when using only 5 % of the data. Thus satellite-based warnings could be implemented across the world with our approach.
Elias de Korte, Bruno Castelle, and Eric Tellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2075–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021, 2021
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We use a statistical model to address the controls and interactions of environmental (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) data on surf zone injuries along a sandy coast where shore-break and rip-current hazards co-exist. Although fair but limited predictive life-risk skill is found, the approach provides new insight into the environmental controls, their interactions and their respective contribution to hazard and exposure, with implications for the development of public education messaging.
Matthew W. Hayward, Colin N. Whittaker, Emily M. Lane, William Power, Stéphane Popinet, and James D. L. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-109, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This work presents validation case studies for a numerical method used in simulating water surface disturbances; firstly, a laboratory flume scale experiment, then by using empirical models to replicate waves generated by explosions at field-scale. We then demonstrate use of the scheme for simulating analogous volcanic eruptions, illustrating the resulting wavefield. We show that this scheme models dispersive sources such as underwater explosions more proficiently than common tsunami models.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
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Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Scott Curtis, Kelley DePolt, Jamie Kruse, Anuradha Mukherji, Jennifer Helgeson, Ausmita Ghosh, and Philip Van Wagoner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1759–1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1759-2021, 2021
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Storm surge flooding can challenge rescue and recovery operations, especially over large estuaries and populated barrier islands. Understanding the relationship between storm and tidal characteristics and surge timing is important for proper resourcing prior to an event. Here we compare the concurrency of maximum observed surge and areal extent of effective hazard operations for hurricanes Matthew and Florence in eastern North Carolina, USA. Matthew was a more spatially compounded surge event.
Fei Ye, Wei Huang, Yinglong J. Zhang, Saeed Moghimi, Edward Myers, Shachak Pe'eri, and Hao-Cheng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1703–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1703-2021, 2021
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Compound flooding is caused by multiple mechanisms contributing to elevated water level simultaneously, which poses higher risks than conventional floods. This study uses a holistic approach to simulate the processes on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales that contributed to the compound flooding during Hurricane Florence in 2018. Sensitivity tests are used to isolate the contribution from each mechanism and identify the region experiencing compound effects, thus supporting management.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Shigehiro Fujino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1667–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1667-2021, 2021
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A case study on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was conducted at the Phra Thong island, Thailand, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model. The model estimated tsunami characteristics from the deposits at Phra Thong island. The uncertainty quantification of the result was evaluated. The predicted flow conditions and the depositional characteristics were compared with the reported observed values. This DNN model can serve as an essential tool for tsunami hazard mitigation at coastal cities.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
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A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, Yann Krien, and Philip Jonathan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-94, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Characterising extreme wave environments caused by tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe is difficult because cyclones rarely pass near the location of interest. STM-E (space-time maxima and exposure) model utilises wave data during cyclones on a spatial neighbourhood. Long-duration wave data generated from a database of synthetic tropical cyclones are used to evaluate the performance of STM-E. Results indicate STM-E provides estimates with small bias and realistic uncertainty.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-55, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Of three Archimedean copulas, the Gumbel copula quantified the dependence of the variables best.
Dailé Avila-Alonso, Jan M. Baetens, Rolando Cardenas, and Bernard De Baets
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-837-2021, 2021
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Hurricanes are extreme storms that induce substantial biophysical changes on oceans. We investigated the effects induced by consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. These hurricanes superimposed effects on the upper-ocean response because of the strong induced mixing and upwelling. The sea surface cooling and phytoplankton bloom induced by these hurricanes were higher compared to climatological records.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-775-2021, 2021
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The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-791-2021, 2021
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Numerical models need to be validated prior to their use as predictive tools. This requirement becomes even more necessary when these models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural hazards where human lives are involved. The present work aims to benchmark the novel Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide-generated tsunamis produced by granular slides, in order to provide to the tsunami community with a robust, efficient, and reliable tool for landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, 2021
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Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, 2021
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In current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying-seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed, and the finite-element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying seawater and the seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 363–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding seashore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Wolin island, Poland). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae–Fagetum type) on the Wolin island is the only such well known site in the world. It was found that for the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than seashore erosion.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García-Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-425, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake/landslide related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry and long waves created by atmospheric disturbances. However, we find that neither mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021, 2021
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Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables: wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Sebastian J. Pitman, Katie Thompson, Deirdre E. Hart, Kevin Moran, Shari L. Gallop, Robert W. Brander, and Adam Wooler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-115-2021, 2021
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This study aimed to identify how well beach users could spot rip currents in real time at the beach. It was performed in response to the fact that rip currents are the leading cause of drownings on recreational beaches worldwide. We found that only one in five people were able to spot the rip current, meaning the vast majority would be unable to make good decisions about where it is safe to swim at the beach.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Sander Rikka, Victor Alari, Aarne Männik, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, 2020
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Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
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Short summary
A high-resolution operational wave forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea has been developed within the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, which provides open, cost-free, and quality-controlled products. The system accounts for waves arriving through the Straight of Gibraltar and for the effect of surface currents on waves. It provides accurate results over well-exposed locations and satisfactory results within enclosed basins and near the coast.
A high-resolution operational wave forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea has been...
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