Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article
21 Feb 2017
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2017

Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change

Susana Almeida, Elizabeth Ann Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener

Related authors

Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534,,, 2023
Short summary
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas
Keith J. Beven, Susana Almeida, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Sarka Blazkova, Edoardo Borgomeo, Jim Freer, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, David B. Stephenson, Thorsten Wagener, Matt Watson, and Kate L. Wilkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2741–2768,,, 2018
Short summary
Accounting for dependencies in regionalized signatures for predictions in ungauged catchments
Susana Almeida, Nataliya Le Vine, Neil McIntyre, Thorsten Wagener, and Wouter Buytaert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 887–901,,, 2016
Short summary
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: Different natural hazard areas
K. J. Beven, S. Almeida, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, S. Blazkova, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. C. Phillips, M. Simpson, P. J. Smith, D. B. Stephenson, T. Wagener, M. Watson, and K. L. Wilkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary

Related subject area

Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114,,, 2024
Short summary
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928,,, 2024
Short summary
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911,,, 2024
Short summary
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756,,, 2024
Short summary
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Anderson, M. G.: A feasibility study in mathematical modelling of slope hydrology and stability, Report to Geotechnical Control Office Civil Engineering Services Department, Hong Kong, 1990.
Anderson, M. G. and Holcombe, L.: Sustainable landslide risk reduction in poorer countries, P. I. Civil Eng.-Eng. Su., 159, 23–30,, 2006.
Anderson, M. G. and Lloyd, D. M.: Using a Combined Slope Hydrology Stability Model to Develop Cut Slope Design Charts, P. I. Civil Eng. Pt. 2, 91, 705–718,, 1991.
Anderson, M. G., Kemp, M. J., and Lloyd, D. M.: Hydrological design manual for slope stability in the tropics, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, UK, 58 pp., 1997.
Short summary
Landslides threaten communities globally, yet predicting their occurrence is challenged by uncertainty about slope properties and climate change. We present an approach to identify the dominant drivers of slope instability and the critical thresholds at which slope failure may occur. This information helps decision makers to target data acquisition to improve landslide predictability, and supports policy development to reduce landslide occurrence and impacts in highly uncertain environments.
Final-revised paper