Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change
Susana Almeida
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8
1TR, UK
Elizabeth Ann Holcombe
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8
1TR, UK
Francesca Pianosi
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8
1TR, UK
Thorsten Wagener
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8
1TR, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
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Cited
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Geodatabases to improve geotechnical design and modelling P. VARDANEGA et al. 10.1002/cepa.704
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- Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors F. Buendia-Hernandez et al. 10.3390/ijerph192215406
- A database of saturated hydraulic conductivity of fine-grained soils: probability density functions S. Feng & P. Vardanega 10.1080/17499518.2019.1652919
- EFFECTS OF STRAIN SOFTENING AND STRENGTH SPATIAL VARIABILITY ON SLOPE FAILURE MOVEMENT BY MATERIAL POINT METHOD . Junyan YU & K. KASAMA 10.2208/journalofjsce.23-15036
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
- Taxonomy of purposes, methods, and recommendations for vulnerability analysis N. Bonham et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106269
- Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty T. Page et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023
- Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics E. Bozzolan et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020
- <H1>A Mechanistic Approach to Include Potential Urbanisation and Climate Change in Landslide Susceptibility Maps <O:P></O:P></H1> E. Bozzolan et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4166606
- Modeling rainfall-induced landslide using the concept of local factor of safety: Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis R. Abbasov et al. 10.1016/j.compgeo.2024.106102
- What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling T. Wagener & F. Pianosi 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.006
- Quantifying the Sensitivity of Progressive Landslide Movements to Failure Geometry, Undercutting Processes and Hydrological Changes B. Leshchinsky et al. 10.1029/2018JF004833
- Minding the geotechnical data gap: appraisal of the variability of key soil parameters for slope stability modelling in Saint Lucia C. Shepheard et al. 10.1007/s10064-018-01451-5
- Uncertainties Analysis of Collapse Susceptibility Prediction Based on Remote Sensing and GIS: Influences of Different Data-Based Models and Connections between Collapses and Environmental Factors W. Li et al. 10.3390/rs12244134
- The damage caused by landslides in socio-economic spheres within the Kigezi highlands of South Western Uganda D. Nseka et al. 10.2478/environ-2021-0003
- Geotechnical variability of the soils of Quito, Ecuador: a geodatabase study M. Othman et al. 10.1007/s10064-023-03438-3
- On the variability of the effective friction angle of Saint Lucian soils: investigations through a laboratory database C. SHEPHEARD et al. 10.1002/cepa.765
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice? K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
- Potential impacts of future climate on the spatio-temporal variability of landslide susceptibility in Iran using machine learning algorithms and CMIP6 climate-change scenarios S. Janizadeh et al. 10.1016/j.gr.2023.05.003
- How a poverty alleviation policy affected comprehensive disaster risk reduction capacity: Evidence from China's great western development policy D. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104656
- Integrating scientific knowledge into machine learning using interactive decision trees G. Sarailidis et al. 10.1016/j.cageo.2022.105248
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- An analysis of natural disasters’ effects – A global comparative study of ‘Blessing in Disguise’ K. Kourtit et al. 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101599
- Global sensitivity analysis of the hydraulic parameters of the reservoir colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China Y. Wang et al. 10.1007/s10346-019-01290-9
- Analysis of topographic parameters underpinning landslide occurrence in Kigezi highlands of southwestern Uganda D. Nseka et al. 10.1007/s11069-019-03787-x
- Effectiveness of a New Drainage System for Decreasing Erosion in Road Hillslopes M. Fernández-Raga et al. 10.1177/1178622120988722
- Future changes in precipitation-caused landslide frequency in British Columbia S. Sobie 10.1007/s10584-020-02788-1
- Engineering geomorphology: A novel professional profile to face applied challenges in earth surface dynamics in mid‐Europe H. Laimer 10.1002/esp.5176
- A mechanistic approach to include climate change and unplanned urban sprawl in landslide susceptibility maps E. Bozzolan et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159412
- Novel ensemble of deep learning neural network and support vector machine for landslide susceptibility mapping in Tehri region, Garhwal Himalaya S. Saha et al. 10.1080/10106049.2022.2120638
- A review of risk analysis methods for natural disasters R. Sun et al. 10.1007/s11069-019-03826-7
- On the use of Bayesian networks as a meta-modelling approach to analyse uncertainties in slope stability analysis I. Chivatá Cárdenas 10.1080/17499518.2018.1498524
- Streamflow Alteration from Impervious Cover: Are All Watersheds Created Equal? H. Moltz et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.12681
- Synthetic libraries of urban landslide simulations to identify slope failure hotspots and drivers across spatial scales and landscapes E. Bozzolan et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02327-4
- How climate change and unplanned urban sprawl bring more landslides U. Ozturk et al. 10.1038/d41586-022-02141-9
- Comprehensive risk management of reservoir landslide-tsunami hazard chains: a case study of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area Y. Li et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02283-z
- Tree-based ensemble methods for sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A performance comparison with Sobol and Morris techniques M. Jaxa-Rozen & J. Kwakkel 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.06.011
- Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice E. Doyle et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103948
- Analysis of design choices for a slope stability scenario in the humid tropics C. Shepheard et al. 10.1680/jensu.16.00081
- Handling Uncertainty in Models of Seismic and Postseismic Hazards: Toward Robust Methods and Resilient Societies B. MacGillivray 10.1111/risa.13663
- Sensitivity analysis methods in the biomedical sciences G. Qian & A. Mahdi 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108306
- Bayesian analysis of the impact of rainfall data product on simulated slope failure for North Carolina locations S. Yatheendradas et al. 10.1007/s10596-018-9804-y
- Numerical experimental comparison of mudflow by smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) M. Bokharaeian et al. 10.1556/1848.2021.00263
- Local and global parameter sensitivity within an ecophysiologically based forest landscape model P. McKenzie et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.002
- A GIS-Based Approach for Shallow Landslides Risk Assessment in the Giampilieri and Briga Catchments Areas (Sicily, Italy) G. Vegliante et al. 10.3390/geohazards5010011
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Geodatabases to improve geotechnical design and modelling P. VARDANEGA et al. 10.1002/cepa.704
- On the evaluation of climate change impact models T. Wagener et al. 10.1002/wcc.772
- New Ensemble Models for Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Modeling in a Semi-Arid Watershed D. Tien Bui et al. 10.3390/f10090743
- Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors F. Buendia-Hernandez et al. 10.3390/ijerph192215406
- A database of saturated hydraulic conductivity of fine-grained soils: probability density functions S. Feng & P. Vardanega 10.1080/17499518.2019.1652919
- EFFECTS OF STRAIN SOFTENING AND STRENGTH SPATIAL VARIABILITY ON SLOPE FAILURE MOVEMENT BY MATERIAL POINT METHOD . Junyan YU & K. KASAMA 10.2208/journalofjsce.23-15036
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
- Taxonomy of purposes, methods, and recommendations for vulnerability analysis N. Bonham et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106269
- Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty T. Page et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023
- Including informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropics E. Bozzolan et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020
- <H1>A Mechanistic Approach to Include Potential Urbanisation and Climate Change in Landslide Susceptibility Maps <O:P></O:P></H1> E. Bozzolan et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4166606
- Modeling rainfall-induced landslide using the concept of local factor of safety: Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis R. Abbasov et al. 10.1016/j.compgeo.2024.106102
- What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling T. Wagener & F. Pianosi 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.006
- Quantifying the Sensitivity of Progressive Landslide Movements to Failure Geometry, Undercutting Processes and Hydrological Changes B. Leshchinsky et al. 10.1029/2018JF004833
- Minding the geotechnical data gap: appraisal of the variability of key soil parameters for slope stability modelling in Saint Lucia C. Shepheard et al. 10.1007/s10064-018-01451-5
- Uncertainties Analysis of Collapse Susceptibility Prediction Based on Remote Sensing and GIS: Influences of Different Data-Based Models and Connections between Collapses and Environmental Factors W. Li et al. 10.3390/rs12244134
- The damage caused by landslides in socio-economic spheres within the Kigezi highlands of South Western Uganda D. Nseka et al. 10.2478/environ-2021-0003
- Geotechnical variability of the soils of Quito, Ecuador: a geodatabase study M. Othman et al. 10.1007/s10064-023-03438-3
- On the variability of the effective friction angle of Saint Lucian soils: investigations through a laboratory database C. SHEPHEARD et al. 10.1002/cepa.765
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice? K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
- Potential impacts of future climate on the spatio-temporal variability of landslide susceptibility in Iran using machine learning algorithms and CMIP6 climate-change scenarios S. Janizadeh et al. 10.1016/j.gr.2023.05.003
- How a poverty alleviation policy affected comprehensive disaster risk reduction capacity: Evidence from China's great western development policy D. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104656
- Integrating scientific knowledge into machine learning using interactive decision trees G. Sarailidis et al. 10.1016/j.cageo.2022.105248
- Sediments quality must be considered when evaluating freshwater aquatic environments used for recreational activities L. Chávez-Díaz et al. 10.1016/j.ijheh.2019.09.007
- An analysis of natural disasters’ effects – A global comparative study of ‘Blessing in Disguise’ K. Kourtit et al. 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101599
- Global sensitivity analysis of the hydraulic parameters of the reservoir colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China Y. Wang et al. 10.1007/s10346-019-01290-9
- Analysis of topographic parameters underpinning landslide occurrence in Kigezi highlands of southwestern Uganda D. Nseka et al. 10.1007/s11069-019-03787-x
- Effectiveness of a New Drainage System for Decreasing Erosion in Road Hillslopes M. Fernández-Raga et al. 10.1177/1178622120988722
- Future changes in precipitation-caused landslide frequency in British Columbia S. Sobie 10.1007/s10584-020-02788-1
- Engineering geomorphology: A novel professional profile to face applied challenges in earth surface dynamics in mid‐Europe H. Laimer 10.1002/esp.5176
- A mechanistic approach to include climate change and unplanned urban sprawl in landslide susceptibility maps E. Bozzolan et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159412
- Novel ensemble of deep learning neural network and support vector machine for landslide susceptibility mapping in Tehri region, Garhwal Himalaya S. Saha et al. 10.1080/10106049.2022.2120638
- A review of risk analysis methods for natural disasters R. Sun et al. 10.1007/s11069-019-03826-7
- On the use of Bayesian networks as a meta-modelling approach to analyse uncertainties in slope stability analysis I. Chivatá Cárdenas 10.1080/17499518.2018.1498524
- Streamflow Alteration from Impervious Cover: Are All Watersheds Created Equal? H. Moltz et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.12681
- Synthetic libraries of urban landslide simulations to identify slope failure hotspots and drivers across spatial scales and landscapes E. Bozzolan et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02327-4
- How climate change and unplanned urban sprawl bring more landslides U. Ozturk et al. 10.1038/d41586-022-02141-9
- Comprehensive risk management of reservoir landslide-tsunami hazard chains: a case study of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area Y. Li et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02283-z
- Tree-based ensemble methods for sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A performance comparison with Sobol and Morris techniques M. Jaxa-Rozen & J. Kwakkel 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.06.011
- Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice E. Doyle et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103948
- Analysis of design choices for a slope stability scenario in the humid tropics C. Shepheard et al. 10.1680/jensu.16.00081
- Handling Uncertainty in Models of Seismic and Postseismic Hazards: Toward Robust Methods and Resilient Societies B. MacGillivray 10.1111/risa.13663
- Sensitivity analysis methods in the biomedical sciences G. Qian & A. Mahdi 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108306
- Bayesian analysis of the impact of rainfall data product on simulated slope failure for North Carolina locations S. Yatheendradas et al. 10.1007/s10596-018-9804-y
- Numerical experimental comparison of mudflow by smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) M. Bokharaeian et al. 10.1556/1848.2021.00263
- Local and global parameter sensitivity within an ecophysiologically based forest landscape model P. McKenzie et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.002
- A GIS-Based Approach for Shallow Landslides Risk Assessment in the Giampilieri and Briga Catchments Areas (Sicily, Italy) G. Vegliante et al. 10.3390/geohazards5010011
Latest update: 23 Nov 2024
Short summary
Landslides threaten communities globally, yet predicting their occurrence is challenged by uncertainty about slope properties and climate change. We present an approach to identify the dominant drivers of slope instability and the critical thresholds at which slope failure may occur. This information helps decision makers to target data acquisition to improve landslide predictability, and supports policy development to reduce landslide occurrence and impacts in highly uncertain environments.
Landslides threaten communities globally, yet predicting their occurrence is challenged by...
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