Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-529-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-529-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 24 Feb 2016
A Quaternary fault database for central Asia
Solmaz Mohadjer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
Todd Alan Ehlers
Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
Rebecca Bendick
Department of Geosciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
Konstanze Stübner
Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
Timo Strube
Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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Lack of access to science-based natural hazards information impedes the effectiveness of school-based disaster risk reduction education. To address this challenge, we created and classroom tested a series of earthquake education videos that were co-taught by school teachers and Earth scientists in the UK and Tajikistan. Comparison of the results reveals significant differences between students' views on the Earth's interior and why and where earthquakes occur.
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Michael Dietze, Solmaz Mohadjer, Jens M. Turowski, Todd A. Ehlers, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017
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We use a seismometer network to detect and locate rockfalls, a key process shaping steep mountain landscapes. When tested against laser scan surveys, all seismically detected events could be located with an average deviation of 81 m. Seismic monitoring provides insight to the dynamics of individual rockfalls, which can be as small as 0.0053 m3. Thus, seismic methods provide unprecedented temporal, spatial and kinematic details about this important process.
Christoph Glotzbach and Todd A. Ehlers
Geochronology Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2024-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2024-12, 2024
Preprint under review for GChron
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The (U-Th)/He dating method helps understand rock’s cooling history. Synthetic modeling experiments were conducted to explore factors affecting in-situ vs. whole-grain (U-Th)/He dates. In-situ dates are often 30 % older than whole-grain dates, whereas very rapid cooling makes helium loss negligible, resulting in similar whole-grain and in-situ dates. In addition, in-situ data can reveal cooling histories even from a single grain by measuring helium distributions.
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Daniel Boateng, Sebastian G. Mutz, Armelle Ballian, Maud J. M. Meijers, Katharina Methner, Svetlana Botsyun, Andreas Mulch, and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1183–1210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1183-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1183-2023, 2023
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We present model-based topographic sensitivity experiments that provide valuable constraints for interpreting past proxies and records of climate and tectonic processes. The study uses a climate model to quantify the response of regional climate and oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation to diachronous surface uplift scenarios across the European Alps. The results suggest that isotopic signal changes can be measured in geologic archives using stable isotope paleoaltimetry.
Hemanti Sharma and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1161–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1161-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1161-2023, 2023
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Seasonality in precipitation (P) and vegetation (V) influences catchment erosion (E), although which factor plays the dominant role is unclear. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of E to P–V seasonality through numerical modeling. Our results suggest that P variations strongly influence seasonal variations in E, while the effect of seasonal V variations is secondary but significant. This is more pronounced in moderate and least pronounced in extreme environmental settings.
Hemanti Sharma, Sebastian G. Mutz, and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 997–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-997-2022, 2022
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We estimate global changes in frost cracking intensity (FCI) using process-based models for four time slices in the late Cenozoic ranging from the Pliocene (∼ 3 Ma) to pre-industrial (∼ 1850 CE, PI). For all time slices, results indicate that FCI was most prevalent in middle to high latitudes and high-elevation lower-latitude areas such as Tibet. Larger deviations (relative to PI) were observed in colder (LGM) and warmer climates (Pliocene) due to differences in temperature and glaciation.
Caitlyn A. Hall, Sam Illingworth, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mathew Koll Roxy, Craig Poku, Frederick Otu-Larbi, Darryl Reano, Mara Freilich, Maria-Luisa Veisaga, Miguel Valencia, and Joey Morales
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Astrid Oetting, Emma C. Smith, Jan Erik Arndt, Boris Dorschel, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Christoph Gaedicke, Coen Hofstede, Johann P. Klages, Gerhard Kuhn, Astrid Lambrecht, Andreas Läufer, Christoph Mayer, Ralf Tiedemann, Frank Wilhelms, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 16, 2051–2066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2051-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2051-2022, 2022
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The maximal extent of grounded ice in this region was 11 km away from the continental shelf break.
The thickness of palaeo-ice on the calving front around the LGM was estimated to be at least 305 to 320 m.
We provide essential boundary conditions for palaeo-ice-sheet models.
Andrea Madella, Christoph Glotzbach, and Todd A. Ehlers
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Cooling ages date the time at which minerals cross a certain isotherm on the way up to Earth's surface. Such ages can be measured from bedrock material and river sand. If spatial variations in bedrock ages are known in a river catchment, the spatial distribution of erosion can be inferred from the distribution of the ages measured from the river sand grains. Here we develop a new tool to help such analyses, with particular emphasis on quantifying uncertainties due to sample size.
Mirjam Schaller and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 131–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-131-2022, 2022
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Soil production, chemical weathering, and physical erosion rates from the large climate and vegetation gradient of the Chilean Coastal Cordillera (26 to 38° S) are investigated. Rates are generally lowest in the sparsely vegetated and arid north, increase southward toward the Mediterranean climate, and then decrease slightly, or possible stay the same, further south in the temperate humid zone. This trend is compared with global data from similar soil-mantled hillslopes in granitic lithologies.
Emilija Krsnik, Katharina Methner, Marion Campani, Svetlana Botsyun, Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Oliver Kempf, Jens Fiebig, Fritz Schlunegger, and Andreas Mulch
Solid Earth, 12, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-2615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-2615-2021, 2021
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Here we present new surface elevation constraints for the middle Miocene Central Alps based on stable and clumped isotope geochemical analyses. Our reconstructed paleoelevation estimate is supported by isotope-enabled paleoclimate simulations and indicates that the Miocene Central Alps were characterized by a heterogeneous and spatially transient topography with high elevations locally exceeding 4000 m.
Kirstin Übernickel, Jaime Pizarro-Araya, Susila Bhagavathula, Leandro Paulino, and Todd A. Ehlers
Biogeosciences, 18, 5573–5594, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5573-2021, 2021
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Animal burrowing is important because it impacts the physical and chemical evolution of Earth’s surface. However, most studies are species specific, and compilations of animal community effects are missing. We present an inventory of the currently known 390 burrowing species for all of Chile along its climate gradient. We observed increasing amounts of excavated material from an area with dry conditions along a gradient towards more humid conditions.
Sean D. Willett, Frédéric Herman, Matthew Fox, Nadja Stalder, Todd A. Ehlers, Ruohong Jiao, and Rong Yang
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1153–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1153-2021, 2021
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The cooling climate of the last few million years leading into the ice ages has been linked to increasing erosion rates by glaciers. One of the ways to measure this is through mineral cooling ages. In this paper, we investigate potential bias in these data and the methods used to analyse them. We find that the data are not themselves biased but that appropriate methods must be used. Past studies have used appropriate methods and are sound in methodology.
Hemanti Sharma, Todd A. Ehlers, Christoph Glotzbach, Manuel Schmid, and Katja Tielbörger
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1045–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1045-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1045-2021, 2021
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We study effects of variable climate–vegetation with different uplift rates on erosion–sedimentation using a landscape evolution modeling approach. Results suggest that regardless of uplift rates, transients in precipitation–vegetation lead to transients in erosion rates in the same direction of change. Vegetation-dependent erosion and sedimentation are influenced by Milankovitch timescale changes in climate, but these transients are superimposed upon tectonically driven uplift rates.
Solmaz Mohadjer, Sebastian G. Mutz, Matthew Kemp, Sophie J. Gill, Anatoly Ischuk, and Todd A. Ehlers
Geosci. Commun., 4, 281–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-281-2021, 2021
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Lack of access to science-based natural hazards information impedes the effectiveness of school-based disaster risk reduction education. To address this challenge, we created and classroom tested a series of earthquake education videos that were co-taught by school teachers and Earth scientists in the UK and Tajikistan. Comparison of the results reveals significant differences between students' views on the Earth's interior and why and where earthquakes occur.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
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This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Mirjam Schaller, Igor Dal Bo, Todd A. Ehlers, Anja Klotzsche, Reinhard Drews, Juan Pablo Fuentes Espoz, and Jan van der Kruk
SOIL, 6, 629–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-629-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-629-2020, 2020
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In this study geophysical observations from ground-penetrating radar with pedolith physical and geochemical properties from pedons excavated in four study areas of the climate and ecological gradient in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera are combined. Findings suggest that profiles with ground-penetrating radar along hillslopes can be used to infer lateral thickness variations in pedolith horizons and to some degree physical and chemical variations with depth.
Clemens Schannwell, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Olaf Eisen, Christoph Mayer, Mika Malinen, Emma C. Smith, and Hannes Eisermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3917–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, 2020
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To reduce uncertainties associated with sea level rise projections, an accurate representation of ice flow is paramount. Most ice sheet models rely on simplified versions of the underlying ice flow equations. Due to the high computational costs, ice sheet models based on the complete ice flow equations have been restricted to < 1000 years. Here, we present a new model setup that extends the applicability of such models by an order of magnitude, permitting simulations of 40 000 years.
Clemens Schannwell, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Olaf Eisen, Christoph Mayer, and Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
The Cryosphere, 13, 2673–2691, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2673-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2673-2019, 2019
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Ice rises are important ice-sheet features that archive the ice sheet's history in their internal structure. Here we use a 3-D numerical ice-sheet model to simulate mechanisms that lead to changes in the geometry of the internal structure. We find that changes in snowfall result in much larger and faster changes than similar changes in ice-shelf geometry. This result is integral to fully unlocking the potential of ice rises as ice-dynamic archives and potential ice-core drilling sites.
Sebastian G. Mutz and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 663–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-663-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-663-2019, 2019
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We apply machine learning techniques to quantify and explain differences between recent palaeoclimates with regards to factors that are important in shaping the Earth's surface. We find that changes in ice cover, near-surface air temperature and rainfall duration create the most distinct differences. We also identify regions particularly prone to changes in rainfall and temperature-controlled erosion, which will help with the interpretation of erosion rates and geological archives.
Lorenz Michel, Christoph Glotzbach, Sarah Falkowski, Byron A. Adams, and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 275–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-275-2019, 2019
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Mountain-building processes are often investigated by assuming a steady state, meaning the balance between opposing forces, like mass influx and mass outflux. This work shows that the Olympic Mountains are in flux steady state on long timescales (i.e., 14 Myr), but the flux steady state could be disturbed on shorter timescales, especially by the Plio–Pleistocene glaciation. The contribution highlights the temporally nonsteady evolution of mountain ranges.
Matthias Nettesheim, Todd A. Ehlers, David M. Whipp, and Alexander Koptev
Solid Earth, 9, 1207–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1207-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1207-2018, 2018
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In this modeling study, we investigate rock uplift at plate corners (syntaxes). These are characterized by a unique bent geometry at subduction zones and exhibit some of the world's highest rock uplift rates. We find that the style of deformation changes above the plate's bent section and that active subduction is necessary to generate an isolated region of rapid uplift. Strong erosion there localizes uplift on even smaller scales, suggesting both tectonic and surface processes are important.
Manuel Schmid, Todd A. Ehlers, Christian Werner, Thomas Hickler, and Juan-Pablo Fuentes-Espoz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 859–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-859-2018, 2018
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We present a numerical modeling study into the interactions between transient climate and vegetation cover with hillslope and fluvial processes. We use a state-of-the-art landscape evolution model library (Landlab) and design model experiments to investigate the effect of climate change and the associated changes in surface vegetation cover on main basin metrics. This paper is a companion paper to Part 1 (this journal), which investigates the effect of climate change on surface vegetation cover.
Christian Werner, Manuel Schmid, Todd A. Ehlers, Juan Pablo Fuentes-Espoz, Jörg Steinkamp, Matthew Forrest, Johan Liakka, Antonio Maldonado, and Thomas Hickler
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 829–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-829-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-829-2018, 2018
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Vegetation is crucial for modulating rates of denudation and landscape evolution, and is directly influenced by climate conditions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Using transient climate data and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model we simulate the vegetation composition and cover from the Last Glacial Maximum to present along the Coastal Cordillera of Chile. In part 2 we assess the landscape response to transient climate and vegetation cover using a landscape evolution model.
Byron A. Adams and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 595–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-595-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-595-2018, 2018
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Where alpine glaciers were active in the past, they have created scenic landscapes that are likely in the process of morphing back into a form that it more stable with today's climate regime and tectonic forces. By looking at older erosion rates from before the time of large alpine glaciers and erosion rates since deglaciation in the Olympic Mountains (USA), we find that the topography and erosion rates have not drastically changed despite the impressive glacial valleys that have been carved.
Michelle E. Gilmore, Nadine McQuarrie, Paul R. Eizenhöfer, and Todd A. Ehlers
Solid Earth, 9, 599–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-599-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-599-2018, 2018
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We examine the Himalayan Mountains of Bhutan by integrating balanced geologic cross sections with cooling ages from a suite of mineral systems. Interpretations of cooling ages are intrinsically linked to both the motion along faults as well as the location and magnitude of erosion. In this study, we use flexural and thermal kinematic models to understand the sensitivity of predicted cooling ages to changes in fault kinematics, geometry, and topography.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
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We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Heiko Paeth, Christian Steger, Jingmin Li, Sebastian G. Mutz, and Todd A. Ehlers
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-111, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We use a high-resolution regional climate model to investigate various episodes of distinct climate states over the Tibetan Plateau region during the Cenozoic rise of the Plateau and Quaternary glacial/interglacial cycles. The simulated changes are in good agreement with available paleo-climatic reconstructions from proxy data. It is shown that in some regions of the Tibetan Plateau the climate anomalies during the Quaternary have been as strong as the changes occurring during the uplift period.
Michael Dietze, Solmaz Mohadjer, Jens M. Turowski, Todd A. Ehlers, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017
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We use a seismometer network to detect and locate rockfalls, a key process shaping steep mountain landscapes. When tested against laser scan surveys, all seismically detected events could be located with an average deviation of 81 m. Seismic monitoring provides insight to the dynamics of individual rockfalls, which can be as small as 0.0053 m3. Thus, seismic methods provide unprecedented temporal, spatial and kinematic details about this important process.
R. M. Headley and T. A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 153–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-153-2015, 2015
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Within a landscape evolution model operating over geologic timescales, this work evaluates how different assumptions and levels of complexity for modeling glacier flow impact the pattern and amount of glacial erosion. Compared to those in colder climates, modeled glaciers in warmer and wetter climates are more sensitive to the choice of glacier flow model. Differences between landscapes evolved with different glacier flow models are intensified over multiple cycles.
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A morphotectonic approach to the study of earthquakes in Rome
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
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The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
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We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
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Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
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Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
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The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
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Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
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The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
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We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
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Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
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This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
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Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
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The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
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Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
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Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-186, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Seismic risk management uses scenarios of earthquake events, but the selection criteria do not always consider consequences to exposed assets. For this reason, we adopt a definition of representative scenario, associated to a return period and loss level, for selecting such scenarios among a big set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential buildings and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios vary in function of the exposed assets.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
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We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
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This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karayev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-131, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was recently developed as part of the “Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia” (SFRARR) program, promoted by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR. This paper describes the preparation of the input data sets (earthquake catalog and active fault database) needed to implement a probabilistic earthquake model for the Central Asian countries.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
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Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
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Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740, 2023
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The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damages are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components, which may be tested individually, however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we are using observations of damages caused by the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, and estimations with other models to test components of the 2020 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model and the European Seismic Risk Model.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, 2023
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The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents, to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
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Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
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The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
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In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
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This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
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The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
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Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
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We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
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In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
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Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
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In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
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We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
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Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
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Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
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One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
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Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
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The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
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We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Mohamadreza Hosseini and Habib Rahimi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3571–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, 2022
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Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damage requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
Maria Francesca Ferrario
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3527–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, 2022
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I mapped over 5000 landslides triggered by a moment magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred in 2015 in the Sabah region (Malaysia). I analyzed their number, dimension and spatial distribution by dividing the territory into 1 km2 cells. I applied the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which allows the categorization of earthquake damage due to environmental effects. The presented approach promotes the collaboration among the experts in landslide mapping and in ESI-07 assignment.
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, 2022
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We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
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As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, 2022
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Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
Xuezhong Chen, Yane Li, and Lijuan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2543–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, 2022
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When the tectonic stress in the crust increases, the b value will decrease, meaning the effects of tidal stresses are enhanced gradually. Increase in the tidal Coulomb failure stress might promote the occurrence of earthquakes, whereas its decrease could have an opposite effect. This observation may provide an insight into the processes leading to the Wenchuan earthquake and its precursors.
Fabrizio Marra, Alberto Frepoli, Dario Gioia, Marcello Schiattarella, Andrea Tertulliani, Monica Bini, Gaetano De Luca, and Marco Luppichini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2445–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, 2022
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Through the analysis of the morphostructural setting in which the seismicity of Rome is framed, we explain why the city should not expect to suffer damage from a big earthquake.
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Short summary
The Central Asia Fault Database is the first publicly accessible digital repository for active faults in central Asia and the surrounding regions. It includes an interactive map and a search tool that allow users to query and display critical fault information such as slip rates and earthquake history. The map displays over 1196 fault traces and 34 000 earthquake locations. The database contains attributes for 123 faults mentioned in the literature.
The Central Asia Fault Database is the first publicly accessible digital repository for active...
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