Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Mar 2015
Research article |
| 06 Mar 2015
Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia
A. C. Spessa
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department Environment, Earth & Ecosystems, Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
Department Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
R. D. Field
Department Applied Physics & Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
F. Pappenberger
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
A. Langner
Forest Resources & Climate Unit, Institute for Environment & Sustainability, EC-Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
S. Englhart
Remote Sensing Solutions GmbH, Munich, Germany
Department Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
T. Stockdale
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
F. Siegert
Remote Sensing Solutions GmbH, Munich, Germany
GeoBio Center, Ludwigs-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany
J. W. Kaiser
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Department Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
J. Moore
College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
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This paper compares fire weather indices calculated from the NASA MERRA-2 reanlaysis to those calculated from a global network of weather stations, finding that, globally, biases in reanalysis fire weather are influenced firstly by temperature and relative humidity and, in certain regions, by precipitation biases. Fire weather forecasts using short-term NASA GEOS-5 weather forecasts are skillful 2 d ahead of time. This skill decreases more quickly with longer lead times at high latitudes.
Bruna A. Holanda, Mira L. Pöhlker, David Walter, Jorge Saturno, Matthias Sörgel, Jeannine Ditas, Florian Ditas, Christiane Schulz, Marco Aurélio Franco, Qiaoqiao Wang, Tobias Donth, Paulo Artaxo, Henrique M. J. Barbosa, Stephan Borrmann, Ramon Braga, Joel Brito, Yafang Cheng, Maximilian Dollner, Johannes W. Kaiser, Thomas Klimach, Christoph Knote, Ovid O. Krüger, Daniel Fütterer, Jošt V. Lavrič, Nan Ma, Luiz A. T. Machado, Jing Ming, Fernando G. Morais, Hauke Paulsen, Daniel Sauer, Hans Schlager, Johannes Schneider, Hang Su, Bernadett Weinzierl, Adrian Walser, Manfred Wendisch, Helmut Ziereis, Martin Zöger, Ulrich Pöschl, Meinrat O. Andreae, and Christopher Pöhlker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4757–4785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4757-2020, 2020
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Biomass burning smoke from African savanna and grassland is transported across the South Atlantic Ocean in defined layers within the free troposphere. The combination of in situ aircraft and ground-based measurements aided by satellite observations showed that these layers are transported into the Amazon Basin during the early dry season. The influx of aged smoke, enriched in black carbon and cloud condensation nuclei, has important implications for the Amazonian aerosol and cloud cycling.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
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We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Therese S. Carter, Colette L. Heald, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Yutaka Kondo, Nobuhiro Moteki, Joshua P. Schwarz, Christine Wiedinmyer, Anton S. Darmenov, Arlindo M. da Silva, and Johannes W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2073–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2073-2020, 2020
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Fires and the smoke they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of smoke remain uncertain and poorly constrained. To explore this, we compare model simulations driven by four commonly-used fire emission inventories with surface, aloft, and satellite observations. We show that across inventories smoke emissions differ by factors of 4 to 7 over North America, challenging our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
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Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Christopher Pöhlker, David Walter, Hauke Paulsen, Tobias Könemann, Emilio Rodríguez-Caballero, Daniel Moran-Zuloaga, Joel Brito, Samara Carbone, Céline Degrendele, Viviane R. Després, Florian Ditas, Bruna A. Holanda, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gerhard Lammel, Jošt V. Lavrič, Jing Ming, Daniel Pickersgill, Mira L. Pöhlker, Maria Praß, Nina Löbs, Jorge Saturno, Matthias Sörgel, Qiaoqiao Wang, Bettina Weber, Stefan Wolff, Paulo Artaxo, Ulrich Pöschl, and Meinrat O. Andreae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8425–8470, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8425-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8425-2019, 2019
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The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) has been established to monitor the rain forest's biosphere–atmosphere exchange, which experiences the combined pressures from human-made deforestation and progressing climate change. This work is meant to be a reference study, which characterizes various geospatial properties of the ATTO footprint region and shows how the human-made transformation of Amazonia may impact future atmospheric observations at ATTO.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Tirthankar Roy, Graham P. Weedon, Florian Pappenberger, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, George J. Huffman, Robert F. Adler, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, 2019
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We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets for the US using the Stage-IV gauge-radar dataset as a reference. The best overall performance was obtained by MSWEP V2.2, underscoring the importance of applying daily gauge corrections and accounting for reporting times. Our findings can be used as a guide to choose the most suitable precipitation dataset for a particular application.
Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018
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Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, and Florian Pappenberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3327–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, 2018
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Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.
Joshua P. Heyer, Mitchell J. Power, Robert D. Field, and Margreet J. E. van Marle
Biogeosciences, 15, 4317–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4317-2018, 2018
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A variety of data were explored to better understand relationships among climate, fire, smoke emissions, and human land use in lowland Bolivia. Paleosedimentary work and modern fire records have linked drought to fire in the southern Amazon. From 2000 to 2015, our results indicate drought was the dominant control on wildfire in lowland Bolivia and in Noel Kempff Mercado National Park. Note that fire was most common in the Cerrado and seasonally inundated wetland biomes.
Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018
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This paper presents a new operational forecasting system (driven by atmospheric forecasts), predicting river flow in European rivers for the next 7 months. For the first month only, these river flow forecasts are, on average, better than predictions that do not make use of atmospheric forecasts. Overall, this forecasting system can predict whether abnormally high or low river flows will occur in the next 7 months in many parts of Europe, and could be valuable for various applications.
Hylke E. Beck, Noemi Vergopolan, Ming Pan, Vincenzo Levizzani, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Graham P. Weedon, Luca Brocca, Florian Pappenberger, George J. Huffman, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6201–6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, 2017
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This study represents the most comprehensive global-scale precipitation dataset evaluation to date. We evaluated 13 uncorrected precipitation datasets using precipitation observations from 76 086 gauges, and 9 gauge-corrected ones using hydrological modeling for 9053 catchments. Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy, and hence, the importance of precipitation dataset selection in both research and operational applications.
Imke Hüser, Hartwig Harder, Angelika Heil, and Johannes W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10955–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10955-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10955-2017, 2017
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The impact of pollution sources on downwind sites can be quantified by Lagrangian dispersion models. We identified the representation of the mixing layer dynamics as a crucial factor for the vertical mixing of surface pollutants. Our application examples show that inaccuracies may introduce errors in the impact assessment on downwind sites. For vegetation fires, mixing by pyrogenic convection is under-represented. We find an overestimation of downwind smoke concentration of more than 60 %.
Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth Stephens, Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Maarten van Aalst, Bart van den Hurk, Simon Mason, Hannah Nissan, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4517–4524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017, 2017
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Disaster managers would like to use seasonal forecasts to anticipate flooding months in advance. However, current seasonal forecasts give information on rainfall instead of flooding. Here, we find that the number of extreme events, rather than total rainfall, is most related to flooding in different regions of Africa. We recommend several forecast adjustments and research opportunities that would improve flood information at the seasonal timescale in different regions.
Margreet J. E. van Marle, Silvia Kloster, Brian I. Magi, Jennifer R. Marlon, Anne-Laure Daniau, Robert D. Field, Almut Arneth, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017
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Fire emission estimates are a key input dataset for climate models. We have merged satellite information with proxy datasets and fire models to reconstruct fire emissions since 1750 AD. Our dataset indicates that, on a global scale, fire emissions were relatively constant over time. Since roughly 1950, declining emissions from savannas were approximately balanced by increased emissions from tropical deforestation zones.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1573–1591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017, 2017
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The use of general circulation model outputs for streamflow forecasting has developed in the last decade. In parallel, traditional streamflow forecasting is commonly based on historical data. This study investigates the impact of conditioning historical data based on circulation model precipitation forecasts on seasonal streamflow forecast quality. Results highlighted a trade-off between the sharpness and reliability of forecasts.
Samuel Rémy, Andreas Veira, Ronan Paugam, Mikhail Sofiev, Johannes W. Kaiser, Franco Marenco, Sharon P. Burton, Angela Benedetti, Richard J. Engelen, Richard Ferrare, and Jonathan W. Hair
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2921–2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2921-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2921-2017, 2017
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Biomass burning emission injection heights are an important source of uncertainty in global climate and atmospheric composition modelling. This work provides a global daily data set of injection heights computed by two very different algorithms, which coherently complete a global biomass burning emissions database. The two data sets were compared and validated against observations, and their use was found to improve forecasts of carbonaceous aerosols in two case studies.
Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. Eight variants of bias correction approaches based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods are applied to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. One of the main results of the study is that distribution mapping of daily values is successful in improving forecast reliability.
Erin Coughlan de Perez, Bart van den Hurk, Maarten K. van Aalst, Irene Amuron, Deus Bamanya, Tristan Hauser, Brenden Jongma, Ana Lopez, Simon Mason, Janot Mendler de Suarez, Florian Pappenberger, Alexandra Rueth, Elisabeth Stephens, Pablo Suarez, Jurjen Wagemaker, and Ervin Zsoter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3549–3560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016, 2016
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Many flood disaster impacts could be avoided by preventative action; however, early action is not guaranteed. This article demonstrates the design of a new system of forecast-based financing, which automatically triggers action when a flood forecast arrives, before a potential disaster. We establish "action triggers" for northern Uganda based on a global flood forecasting system, verifying these forecasts and assessing the uncertainties inherent in setting a trigger in a data-scarce location.
Maite Bauwens, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Isabelle De Smedt, Michel Van Roozendael, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, Johannes W. Kaiser, Katerina Sindelarova, and Alex Guenther
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10133–10158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10133-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10133-2016, 2016
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Relying on a 9-year record of satellite observations of formaldehyde, we use inverse techniques to derive global top–down hydrocarbon fluxes over 2005–2013, infer seasonal and interannual variability, and detect emission trends. Our results suggest changes in fire seasonal patterns, a stronger contribution of agricultural burning, overestimated isoprene flux rates in the tropics, overly decreased isoprene emissions due to soil moisture stress in arid areas, and enhanced isoprene trends.
Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016
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Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, and Antje Weisheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2737–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, 2016
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Soil moisture memory is a key aspect of seasonal climate predictions, through feedback between the land surface and the atmosphere. Estimates have been made of the length of soil moisture memory; however, we show here how estimates of memory show large variation with uncertain model parameters. Explicit representation of model uncertainty may then improve the realism of simulations and seasonal climate forecasts.
Niels Andela, Guido R. van der Werf, Johannes W. Kaiser, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Martin J. Wooster, and Caroline E. R. Lehmann
Biogeosciences, 13, 3717–3734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, 2016
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Landscape fires occur on a large scale in savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystems and air quality. We combined two satellite-derived datasets to derive fuel consumption per unit of area burned for savannas and grasslands in the (sub)tropics. Fire return periods, vegetation productivity, vegetation type and human land management were all important drivers of its spatial distribution. The results can be used to improve fire emission modelling and management or to detect ecosystem degradation.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Gabriel Pereira, Ricardo Siqueira, Nilton E. Rosário, Karla L. Longo, Saulo R. Freitas, Francielle S. Cardozo, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Martin J. Wooster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6961–6975, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6961-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6961-2016, 2016
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Fires associated with land use and land cover changes release large amounts of aerosols and trace gases into the atmosphere. Although several inventories of biomass burning emissions cover Brazil, there are still considerable uncertainties and differences among them. However, results indicate that emission derived via similar methods tend to agree with one other, but aerosol emissions from fires with particularly high biomass consumption still lead to an underestimation.
Jon Olav Skøien, Konrad Bogner, Peter Salamon, Paul Smith, and Florian Pappenberger
Proc. IAHS, 373, 109–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-109-2016, 2016
G. Roberts, M. J. Wooster, W. Xu, P. H. Freeborn, J.-J. Morcrette, L. Jones, A. Benedetti, H. Jiangping, D. Fisher, and J. W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13241–13267, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13241-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13241-2015, 2015
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Characterising the dynamics of wildfires at high temporal resolution is best achieved using observations from geostationary satellite sensors. The SEVIRI Fire Radiative Power (FRP) products have been developed using such imagery at up to 15-minute temporal frequency. These data are used to estimate wildfire fuel consumption and to the characterise smoke emissions from the 2007 Peloponnese "mega fires" within an atmospheric transport model.
R. A. Fisher, S. Muszala, M. Verteinstein, P. Lawrence, C. Xu, N. G. McDowell, R. G. Knox, C. Koven, J. Holm, B. M. Rogers, A. Spessa, D. Lawrence, and G. Bonan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015
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Predicting the distribution of vegetation under novel climates is important, both to understand how climate change will impact ecosystem services, but also to understand how vegetation changes might affect the carbon, energy and water cycles. Historically, predictions have been heavily dependent upon observations of existing vegetation boundaries. In this paper, we attempt to predict ecosystem boundaries from the ``bottom up'', and illustrate the complexities and promise of this approach.
M. J. M. Penning de Vries, S. Beirle, C. Hörmann, J. W. Kaiser, P. Stammes, L. G. Tilstra, O. N. E. Tuinder, and T. Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10597–10618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10597-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10597-2015, 2015
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
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This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
A. Inness, A. Benedetti, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. W. Kaiser, M. Parrington, and S. Remy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9083–9097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9083-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9083-2015, 2015
N. Andela, J. W. Kaiser, G. R. van der Werf, and M. J. Wooster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8831–8846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, 2015
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The polar orbiting MODIS instruments provide four daily observations of the fire diurnal cycle, resulting in erroneous fire radiative energy (FRE) estimates. Using geostationary SEVIRI data, we explore the fire diurnal cycle and its drivers for Africa to develop a new method to estimate global FRE in near real-time using MODIS. The fire diurnal cycle varied with climate and vegetation type, and including information on the fire diurnal cycle in the model significantly improved the FRE estimates.
V. Thiemig, B. Bisselink, F. Pappenberger, and J. Thielen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3365–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3365-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3365-2015, 2015
C. Lavaysse, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3273–3286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, 2015
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This paper assesses the predictability of meteorological droughts over Europe 1 month in advance using ensemble prediction systems.
It has been shown that, on average and using the most relevant method, 40 % of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted, with less than 25 % false alarms.
This study is a reference for other studies that are motivated to improving the drought forecasting.
A. Veira, S. Kloster, N. A. J. Schutgens, and J. W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7173–7193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7173-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7173-2015, 2015
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Global aerosol-climate models usually prescribe wildfire emission injections at fixed atmospheric levels. Here, we quantify the impact of prescribed and parametrized emission heights on aerosol long-range transport and radiation. For global emission height changes of 1.5-3.5km, we find a top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of 0.05-0.1Wm-2. Replacing prescribed emission heights by a simple plume height parametrization only marginally improves the model performance in aerosol optical thickness.
R. D. Field, A. C. Spessa, N. A. Aziz, A. Camia, A. Cantin, R. Carr, W. J. de Groot, A. J. Dowdy, M. D. Flannigan, K. Manomaiphiboon, F. Pappenberger, V. Tanpipat, and X. Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1407–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1407-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1407-2015, 2015
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We have developed a global database of daily, gridded Fire Weather Index System calculations beginning in 1980. Input data and two different estimates of precipitation from rain gauges were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications. This data set can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity, and in identifying large-scale atmosphere–ocean controls on fire weather.
F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, and E. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015, 2015
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Dry spells can have a devastating impact on agricuture in areas where irrigation is not available. Forecasting these dry spells could enhance preparedness in sensitive regions and avoid economic loss due to harvest failure. In this study, ECMWF seasonal forecasts are applied in the Limpopo basin in southeastern Africa to forecast dry spells in the seasonal rains. The results indicate skill in the forecast which is further improved by post-processing of the precipitation forecasts.
R. Paugam, M. Wooster, J. Atherton, S. R. Freitas, M. G. Schultz, and J. W. Kaiser
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-9815-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-9815-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The transport of Biomass Burning emissions in Chemical Transport Model rely on parametrization of plumes injection height. Using fire observation selected to ensure match-up of fire-atmosphere-plume dynamics; a popular plume rise model was improved and optimized. The resulting model shows response to the effect of atmospheric stability consistent with previous findings and is able to predict higher injection height than any other tested parametrizations, giving a closer match with observation.
S. Archer-Nicholls, D. Lowe, E. Darbyshire, W. T. Morgan, M. M. Bela, G. Pereira, J. Trembath, J. W. Kaiser, K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, H. Coe, and G. McFiggans
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 549–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-549-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-549-2015, 2015
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The regional WRF-Chem model was used to study aerosol particles from biomass burning in South America. The modelled estimates of fire plume injection heights were found to be too high, with serious implications for modelled aerosol vertical distribution, transport and impacts on local climate. A modified emission scenario was developed which improved the predicted injection height. Model results were compared and evaluated against in situ measurements from the 2012 SAMBBA flight campaign.
G. Balsamo, C. Albergel, A. Beljaars, S. Boussetta, E. Brun, H. Cloke, D. Dee, E. Dutra, J. Muñoz-Sabater, F. Pappenberger, P. de Rosnay, T. Stockdale, and F. Vitart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 389–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015, 2015
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ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis covering the period 1979–2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim and a precipitation bias correction based on GPCP. A selection of verification results show the added value in representing the terrestrial water cycle and its main land surface storages and fluxes.
T. T. van Leeuwen, G. R. van der Werf, A. A. Hoffmann, R. G. Detmers, G. Rücker, N. H. F. French, S. Archibald, J. A. Carvalho Jr., G. D. Cook, W. J. de Groot, C. Hély, E. S. Kasischke, S. Kloster, J. L. McCarty, M. L. Pettinari, P. Savadogo, E. C. Alvarado, L. Boschetti, S. Manuri, C. P. Meyer, F. Siegert, L. A. Trollope, and W. S. W. Trollope
Biogeosciences, 11, 7305–7329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7305-2014, 2014
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
I. B. Konovalov, E. V. Berezin, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, M. Beekmann, J. Hadji-Lazaro, C. Clerbaux, M. O. Andreae, J. W. Kaiser, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10383–10410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, 2014
P. Trambauer, S. Maskey, M. Werner, F. Pappenberger, L. P. H. van Beek, and S. Uhlenbrook
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2925–2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2925-2014, 2014
E. Dutra, F. Wetterhall, F. Di Giuseppe, G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, J. Vogt, W. Pozzi, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2657–2667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2657-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2657-2014, 2014
E. Dutra, W. Pozzi, F. Wetterhall, F. Di Giuseppe, L. Magnusson, G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2669–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2669-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2669-2014, 2014
C. C. Sampson, T. J. Fewtrell, F. O'Loughlin, F. Pappenberger, P. B. Bates, J. E. Freer, and H. L. Cloke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2305–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014, 2014
L. Alfieri, F. Pappenberger, and F. Wetterhall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1505–1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1505-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1505-2014, 2014
S. Vicca, M. Bahn, M. Estiarte, E. E. van Loon, R. Vargas, G. Alberti, P. Ambus, M. A. Arain, C. Beier, L. P. Bentley, W. Borken, N. Buchmann, S. L. Collins, G. de Dato, J. S. Dukes, C. Escolar, P. Fay, G. Guidolotti, P. J. Hanson, A. Kahmen, G. Kröel-Dulay, T. Ladreiter-Knauss, K. S. Larsen, E. Lellei-Kovacs, E. Lebrija-Trejos, F. T. Maestre, S. Marhan, M. Marshall, P. Meir, Y. Miao, J. Muhr, P. A. Niklaus, R. Ogaya, J. Peñuelas, C. Poll, L. E. Rustad, K. Savage, A. Schindlbacher, I. K. Schmidt, A. R. Smith, E. D. Sotta, V. Suseela, A. Tietema, N. van Gestel, O. van Straaten, S. Wan, U. Weber, and I. A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 11, 2991–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2991-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2991-2014, 2014
G. Naumann, E. Dutra, P. Barbosa, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, and J. V. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, 2014
H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, F. A. Engelbrecht, E. Archer Van Garderen, F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, and M. G. F. Werner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1525–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1525-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1525-2014, 2014
W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, A. Arneth, and U. Weber
Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014
E. Mwangi, F. Wetterhall, E. Dutra, F. Di Giuseppe, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 611–620, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-611-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-611-2014, 2014
P. Trambauer, E. Dutra, S. Maskey, M. Werner, F. Pappenberger, L. P. H. van Beek, and S. Uhlenbrook
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 193–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-193-2014, 2014
F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, L. Alfieri, H. L. Cloke, J. Thielen-del Pozo, S. Balabanova, J. Daňhelka, A. Vogelbacher, P. Salamon, I. Carrasco, A. J. Cabrera-Tordera, M. Corzo-Toscano, M. Garcia-Padilla, R. J. Garcia-Sanchez, C. Ardilouze, S. Jurela, B. Terek, A. Csik, J. Casey, G. Stankūnavičius, V. Ceres, E. Sprokkereef, J. Stam, E. Anghel, D. Vladikovic, C. Alionte Eklund, N. Hjerdt, H. Djerv, F. Holmberg, J. Nilsson, K. Nyström, M. Sušnik, M. Hazlinger, and M. Holubecka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4389–4399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013, 2013
M. Lefèvre, A. Oumbe, P. Blanc, B. Espinar, B. Gschwind, Z. Qu, L. Wald, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, C. Hoyer-Klick, A. Arola, A. Benedetti, J. W. Kaiser, and J.-J. Morcrette
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, 2013
E. Dutra, F. Di Giuseppe, F. Wetterhall, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2359–2373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2359-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2359-2013, 2013
M. H. Ramos, S. J. van Andel, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2219–2232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013, 2013
J. Jubanski, U. Ballhorn, K. Kronseder, J Franke, and F. Siegert
Biogeosciences, 10, 3917–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3917-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3917-2013, 2013
M. Krol, W. Peters, P. Hooghiemstra, M. George, C. Clerbaux, D. Hurtmans, D. McInerney, F. Sedano, P. Bergamaschi, M. El Hajj, J. W. Kaiser, D. Fisher, V. Yershov, and J.-P. Muller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4737–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4737-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4737-2013, 2013
A. Inness, F. Baier, A. Benedetti, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, H. Clark, C. Clerbaux, P. Coheur, R. J. Engelen, Q. Errera, J. Flemming, M. George, C. Granier, J. Hadji-Lazaro, V. Huijnen, D. Hurtmans, L. Jones, J. W. Kaiser, J. Kapsomenakis, K. Lefever, J. Leitão, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. G. Schultz, A. J. Simmons, M. Suttie, O. Stein, J.-N. Thépaut, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, C. Zerefos, and the MACC team
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4073–4109, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4073-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4073-2013, 2013
L. Alfieri, P. Burek, E. Dutra, B. Krzeminski, D. Muraro, J. Thielen, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model
Development of operational decision support tools for mechanized ski guiding using avalanche terrain modeling, GPS tracking, and machine learning
Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Proglacial lake evolution and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsjökull glacier, southeast Iceland
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
The effect of slab touchdown on anticrack arrest in propagation saw tests
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
Simulation of cold powder avalanches considering daily snowpack and weather situations to enhance road safety
Supershear crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release: new insights from numerical simulations and field measurements
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1331–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025, 2025
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This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random-forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live testing. The model achieved ∼ 70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1255–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1255-2025, 2025
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We model the decision-making of professional ski guides and develop decision support tools to assist with determining appropriate terrain based on current conditions. Our approach compares a manually constructed Bayesian network with machine learning classification models. The models accurately capture the real-world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1207–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, 2025
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We describe in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analysing its preconditions and consequences, as well as the role of the changing climate. Our study contributes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates reports detailing the increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1113–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1113-2025, 2025
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The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-avalanche terrain and Class 4 – Extreme terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with guidance for the application of ATES.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca A. Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 929–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-929-2025, 2025
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Research on human factors in avalanche decision-making has become increasingly popular in the past 2 decades. The studies span a wide range of disciplines and are published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of this literature, this study provides a systematic scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making. A total of 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main themes.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025, 2025
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We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good agreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences, while it remained unclear which data source represented reality the best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
Katharina H. Horn, Stenka Vulova, Hanyu Li, and Birgit Kleinschmit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 383–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025, 2025
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In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-321-2025, 2025
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To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the propagation saw test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4225–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, 2024
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Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
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Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
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A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Greta Hoe Wells, Þorsteinn Sæmundsson, Finnur Pálsson, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Reginald L. Hermanns, and Snævarr Guðmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2002, 2024
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Glacier retreat elevates the risk of landslides released into proglacial lakes, which can trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study maps proglacial lake evolution and GLOF hazard scenarios at Fjallsjökull glacier, Iceland. Lake volume increased from 1945–2021 and is estimated to triple over the next century. Three slopes are prone to landslides that may trigger GLOFs. Results will mitigate flood hazard at this popular tourism site and advance GLOF research in Iceland and globally.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
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This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
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Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Philipp L. Rosendahl, Johannes Schneider, Grégoire Bobillier, Florian Rheinschmidt, Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, and Philipp Weißgraeber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Our research investigates the role of anticracks in snowpacks and their impact on avalanche formation, focusing on anticracks due to weak layer collapse. We discovered that slab touchdown on the snow below the weak layer decreases the energy available for crack propagation, potentially leading to a stop of crack propagation. This underscores the importance of mechanical interactions in snowpack stability. Our work offers new insights for enhancing avalanche prediction and mitigation strategies.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
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A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
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Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
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Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
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In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Julia Glaus, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Perry Bartelt, Marc Christen, Lukas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, and Yves Bühler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, 2024
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This study assesses RAMMS::EXTENDED's predictive power in estimating avalanche run-out distances critical for mountain road safety. Leveraging meteorological data and sensitivity analysis, it offers meaningful predictions, aiding near real-time hazard assessments and future model refinement for improved decision-making.
Grégoire Bobillier, Bertil Trottet, Bastian Bergfeld, Ron Simenhois, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Our study focuses on the initiation process of snow slab avalanches. By combining experimental data and numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, a crack forms and propagates due to compression fracture within a weak layer, and on steep slopes, the crack velocity can increase dramatically after about 5 meters due to a fracture mode transition (compression to shear). Understanding these dynamics represents an essential additional piece in the dry-snow slab avalanche formation puzzle.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
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Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
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This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
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The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
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With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
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Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
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We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
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We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
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Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
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Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
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The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
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We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
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All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
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The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
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This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
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Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
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For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
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In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
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In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
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Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
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Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
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Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
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This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
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Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
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Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
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Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
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One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
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