Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-163-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-163-2026
Research article
 | 
16 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 16 Jan 2026

Deciphering the drivers of direct and indirect damages to companies from an unprecedented flood event: A data-driven, multivariate probabilistic approach

Ravikumar Guntu, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, Meike Müller, and Heidi Kreibich

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Cited articles

Aria, M., Cuccurullo, C., and Gnasso, A.: A comparison among interpretative proposals for Random Forests, Machine Learning with Applications, 6, 100094, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mlwa.2021.100094, 2021. 
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BMI and BMF: Report on the 2021 flood disaster: disaster relief, reconstruction and evaluation processes, https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/veroeffentlichungen/2022/finalreport-hochwasserkatastrophe.html (last access: 16 September 2024), 2022. 
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Machine Learning, 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001. 
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The 2021 flood in Germany caused severe damage to companies, with over half reporting losses above € 100 000. Using probabilistic models, we identify key factors driving direct damage and business interruption. Water depth, flow velocity and company exposure were key factors, but preparedness played a crucial role. Companies that took good precaution recovered faster. Our findings stress the value of early warnings and risk communication to reduce damage from unprecedented flood events.
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