Articles | Volume 25, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
12 May 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 12 May 2025
| 12 May 2025
Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea, 2018
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
James Young
Department of Computer Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Michelle Spruce
Department of Computer Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Liverpool Business School, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK
Ravi Pandit
Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Centre for Life-Cycle Engineering and Management, Cranfield University, Bedford, UK
Hywel Williams
Department of Computer Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Rudy Arthur
Department of Computer Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Wendy Stovall
Volcano Hazards Program, United States Geological Survey, USA
Matthew Head
Department of Earth Science and Environmental Change, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Michelle D. Spruce, Rudy Arthur, Joanne Robbins, and Hywel T. P. Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2407–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Despite increased use of impact-based weather warnings, the social impacts of extreme weather events lie beyond the reach of conventional meteorological observations and remain difficult to quantify. This study compares data collected from the social media platform Twitter with a manually curated database of high-impact rainfall events across the globe between January–June 2017. Twitter is found to be a good detector of impactful rainfall events and, therefore, a useful source of impact data.
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand
Geophysical fingerprint of the 4–11 July 2024 eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano, Italy
Automating tephra fall building damage assessment using deep learning
Where will the next flank eruption at Etna occur? An updated spatial probabilistic assessment
Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions
“More poison than words can describe”: what did people die of after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland?
Estimating the mass of tephra accumulated on roads to best manage the impact of volcanic eruptions: the example of Mt. Etna, Italy
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015 eruption
Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
Nicola J. McDonald, Leslie Dowling, Emily P. Harvey, Alana M. Weir, Mark S. Bebbington, Nam Bui, Christina Magill, Heather M. Craig, Garry W. McDonald, Juan J. Monge, Shane J. Cronin, Thomas M. Wilson, and Duncan Walker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1543–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we develop a model to quantify the future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand. We use the model to simulate 10 000 possible volcanic futures and collate results into risk-type metrics. The results highlight the variation in risk exposure across farms and show that volcanic risk should play an important role in shaping the future of Taranaki’s dairy sector. This model could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts.
Luciano Zuccarello, Duccio Gheri, Silvio De Angelis, Riccardo Civico, Tullio Ricci, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On July 11, 2024, Stromboli erupted violently, generating a volcanic ash column and pyroclastic flows along the Sciara del Fuoco. The event followed intense explosions, ongoing lava flows, and crater rim collapses. A multiparametric analysis using seismo-acoustic, and drone data was conducted to reconstruct the eruption's key features, estimate material loss, and document summit morphology changes, aiming to improve understanding of eruption processes and enhance forecasting and risk management.
Eleanor Tennant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Victoria Miller, Richard Robertson, Bihan Wen, Sang-Ho Yun, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4585–4608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After a volcanic eruption, assessing building damage quickly is important for responding to and recovering from the disaster. Traditional damage assessment methods such as ground surveys can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, hindering rapid response and recovery efforts. To overcome this, we have developed an automated approach for tephra fall building damage assessment. Our approach uses drone-acquired optical images and deep learning to rapidly generate building damage data.
Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4431–4455, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter (now X) posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show that even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people. Earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact, but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Luigi Mereu, Manuel Stocchi, Alexander Garcia, Michele Prestifilippo, Laura Sandri, Costanza Bonadonna, and Simona Scollo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Considering the question about the quantification of tephra mass deposited on roads following an or a series of explosive volcanic eruptions, in this work we assessed the cumulated tephra mass on the road networks in three selected towns on Etna’s eastern flank during several paroxysms in 2021. This is a first attempt to estimate the amount of tephra that must be removed during a crisis and could be reused instead of disposed, converting in this way a potential problem into an opportunity.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Ana Graciela Ulke, Marcela M. Torres Brizuela, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2159–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
Rosario Vázquez, Lucia Capra, and Velio Coviello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present the morphological changes experienced by Montegrande ravine (Volcán de Colima, Mexico) during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. A total of 11 lahars occurred during this period of time, and their erosion/deposition effects were quantified by means of cross sections and rainfall analysis. The major factors controlling the E/D rates are the channel-bed slope, the cross-section width, the flow depth and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall.
Cited articles
Aebi, N. J., De Ridder, D., Ochoa, C., Petrovic, D., Fadda, M., Elayan, S., Sykora, M., Puhan, M., Naslund, J. A., Mooney, S. J., and Gruebner, O.: Can Big Data Be Used to Monitor the Mental Health Consequences of COVID-19?, Int. J. Public Health, 66, 633451, https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2021.633451, 2021.
Altman, D.: Practical statistics for medical research, Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, New York, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429258589, 1999.
Anderson, K. R., Johanson, I. A., Patrick, M. R., Gu, M., Segall, P., Poland, M. P., Montgomery-Brown, E. K., and Miklius, A.: Magma reservoir failure and the onset of caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018, Science, 80, 366, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz1822, 2019.
Armijos, M. T., Phillips, J., Wilkinson, E., Barclay, J., Hicks, A., Palacios, P., Mothes, P., and Stone, J.: Adapting to changes in volcanic behaviour: Formal and informal interactions for enhanced risk management at Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador, Global Environ. Chang., 45, 217–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.06.002, 2017.
Arthur, R., Boulton, C. A., Shotton, H., and Williams, H. T. P.: Social sensing of floods in the UK, PLOS One, 13, e0189327, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0189327, 2018.
Barclay, J., Haynes, K., Houghton, B., and Johnston, D.: Social Processes and Volcanic Risk Reduction, in: The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, Second Edition, edited by: Sigurdsson, H., Academic Press, https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385938-9.00069-9, 1203–1214 pp., 2015.
Barclay, J., Few, R., Armijos, M. T., Phillips, J. C., Pyle, D. M., Hicks, A., Brown, S. K., and Robertson, R. E. A.: Livelihoods, Wellbeing and the Risk to Life During Volcanic Eruptions, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00205, 2019.
Bonaccorso, A., Calvari, S., and Boschi, E.: Hazard mitigation and crisis management during major flank eruptions at Etna volcano: Reporting on real experience, Geol. Soc. Spec. Publ., 426, 447–461, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP426.4, 2016.
Brown, S. K., Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Vye-Brown, C., Barclay, J., Calder, E., Cottrell, E., Jolly, G., Komorowski, J.-C., Mandeville, C., Newhall, C. G., Palma, J. L., Potter, S., and Valentine, G.: Global volcanic hazard and risk, in: Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, edited by: Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, S., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.004, 81–172, 2015.
Calabrò, L., Harris, A. J. L., and Thouret, J. C.: Media views of the Stromboli 2002-2003 eruption and evacuation: A content analysis to understand framing of risk communication during a volcanic crisis, J. Appl. Volcanol., 9, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-020-00094-0, 2020.
Christie, R., Cooke, O., and Gottsmann, J.: Fearing the knock on the door: Critical security studies insights into limited cooperation with disaster management regimes, J. Appl. Volcanol., 4, 19, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-015-0037-7, 2015.
County of Hawai`i: Kilauea Recovery and Resilience Plan, 2020.
Creswell, J. W.: Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches, Third., SAGE Publications, ISBN-10 141296556X, 2009.
de Bruijn, J. A., de Moel, H., Jongman, B., de Ruiter, M. C., Wagemaker, J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: A global database of historic and real-time flood events based on social media, Sci. Data, 6, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0326-9, 2019.
Dodds, P. S., Clark, E. M., Desu, S., Frank, M. R., Reagan, A. J., Williams, J. R., Mitchell, L., Harris, K. D., Kloumann, I. M., Bagrow, J. P., Megerdoomian, K., McMahon, M. T., Tivnan, B. F., and Danforth, C. M.: Human language reveals a universal positivity bias, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 2389–2394, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411678112, 2015.
Gansecki, C., Lopaka Lee, R., Shea, T., Lundblad, S. P., Hon, K., and Parcheta, C.: The tangled tale of Kīlauea's 2018 eruption as told by geochemical monitoring, Science, 80, 366, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz0147, 2019.
Giuffrida, L., Lokys, H., and Klemm, O.: Assessing the effect of weather on human outdoor perception using Twitter, Int. J. Biometeorol., 64, 205–216, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1574-7, 2020.
Goldman, R., Stovall, W., Damby, D., and McBride, S.: Hawai`i residents' perceptions of Kīlauea's 2018 eruption information, Volcanica, 6, 19–43, https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.06.01.1943, 2023.
Goldman, R. T., McBride, S. K., Stovall, W. K., and Damby, D. E.: USGS and social media user dialogue and sentiment during the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai`i, Front. Commun., 9, 986974, https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2024.986974, 2024.
Graham, O., Thomas, T., Hicks, A., Edwards, S., Juman, A., Ramroop, A., and Robertson, R.: Facts, faith and Facebook: science communication during the 2020–21 La Soufrière, St Vincent volcanic eruption, Geol. Soc. Spec. Publ., 539, 331–344, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP539-2022-289, 2024.
Guan, X. and Chen, C.: Using social media data to understand and assess disasters, Nat. Hazards, 74, 837–850, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1217-1, 2014.
Hickey, J.: Tweet data for “Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea 2018” (Version v1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10473984, 2024.
Hicks, A. and Few, R.: Trajectories of social vulnerability during the Soufrière Hills volcanic crisis, J. Appl. Volcanol., 4, 10, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-015-0029-7, 2015.
Houghton, B. F., Cockshell, W. A., Gregg, C. E., Walker, B. H., Kim, K., Tisdale, C. M., and Yamashita, E.: Land, lava, and disaster create a social dilemma after the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Nat. Commun., 12, 10–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21455-2, 2021.
Hutto, C. J. and Gilbert, E.: VADER: A Parsimonious Rule-Based Model for Sentiment Analysis of Social Media Text, Eighth Int. AAAI Conf. Weblogs Soc. Media, University of Michigan, 1–4 June 2014, 216–225, 2014.
Jolly, G. and de la Cruz, S.: Volcanic Crisis Management, in: The encyclopedia of Volcanoes, Second Edi., edited by: Sigurdsson, H., Elsevier Inc., https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385938-9.00068-7, 1187–1202 pp., 2015.
Kim, J. and Hastak, M.: Social network analysis: Characteristics of online social networks after a disaster, Int. J. Inform. Manage., 38, 86–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2017.08.003, 2018.
Kim, K., Pant, P., Yamashita, E., and Ghimire, J.: Analysis of Transportation Disruptions from Recent Flooding and Volcanic Disasters in Hawai'i, Transport Res. Rec., 2673, 194–208, https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118825460, 2019.
Kirilenko, A. P., Molodtsova, T., and Stepchenkova, S. O.: People as sensors: Mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter, Global Environ. Chang., 30, 92–100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.11.003, 2015.
Kryvasheyeu, Y., Chen, H., Obradovich, N., Moro, E., Van Hentenryck, P., Fowler, J., and Cebrian, M.: Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity, Sci. Adv., 2, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500779, 2016.
Landis, J. R. and Koch, G. G.: The Measurement of Observer Agreement for Categorical Data, Biometrics, 33, 159, https://doi.org/10.2307/2529310, 1977.
Laylavi, F., Rajabifard, A., and Kalantari, M.: A multi-element approach to location inference of Twitter: A case for emergency response, ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf., 5, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi5050056, 2016.
Liu, Y., Liu, X., Gao, S., Gong, L., Kang, C., Zhi, Y., Chi, G., and Shi, L.: Social Sensing: A New Approach to Understanding Our Socioeconomic Environments, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 105, 512–530, https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2015.1018773, 2015.
Loughlin, S. C., Vye-Brown, C., Sparks, R. S. J., and Brown, S. K.: Global volcanic hazards and risk: Summary background paper for the Global Assessment Report on disaster risk reduction 2015, IAVCEI, IAVCEI, 2015.
Mani, L., Edwards, S., Joseph, E., Juman, A., and Thomas, T.: Evaluating the UWI-SRC crisis communications campaign during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent, Geol. Soc. London, Spec. Publ., 539, 345–363, https://doi.org/10.1144/sp539-2022-297, 2024.
McCormick, T. H., Lee, H., Cesare, N., Shojaie, A., and Spiro, E. S.: Using Twitter for Demographic and Social Science Research: Tools for Data Collection and Processing, Sociol. Method. Res., 46, 390–421, https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124115605339, 2017.
Meredith, E. S., Jenkins, S. F., Hayes, J. L., Deligne, N. I., Lallemant, D., Patrick, M., and Neal, C.: Damage assessment for the 2018 lower East Rift Zone lava flows of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai`i, B. Volcanol., 84, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01568-2, 2022.
Middleton, S. E., Middleton, L., and Modafferi, S.: Real-time crisis mapping of natural disasters using social media, IEEE Intell. Syst., 29, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.1109/MIS.2013.126, 2014.
Naismith, A. K., Armijos, M. T., Escobar, E. A. B., Chigna, W., and Watson, I. M.: Fireside tales: Understanding experiences of previous eruptions among other factors that influence the decision to evacuate from eruptive activity of Volcán de Fuego, Volcanica, 3, 206–226, https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.03.02.205226, 2020.
Neal, C. A., Brantley, S. R., Antolik, L., Babb, J. L., Burgess, M., Calles, K., Cappos, M., Chang, J. C., Conway, S., Desmither, L., Dotray, P., Elias, T., Fukunaga, P., Fuke, S., Johanson, I. A., Kamibayashi, K., Kauahikaua, J., Lee, R. L., Pekalib, S., Miklius, A., Million, W., Moniz, C. J., Nadeau, P. A., Okubo, P., Parcheta, C., Patrick, M. R., Shiro, B., Swanson, D. A., Tollett, W., Trusdell, F., Younger, E. F., Zoeller, M. H., Montgomery-Brown, E. K., Anderson, K. R., Poland, M. P., Ball, J. L., Bard, J., Coombs, M., Dietterich, H. R., Kern, C., Thelen, W. A., Cervelli, P. F., Orr, T., Houghton, B. F., Gansecki, C., Hazlett, R., Lundgren, P., Diefenbach, A. K., Lerner, A. H., Waite, G., Kelly, P., Clor, L., Werner, C., Mulliken, K., Fisher, G., and Damby, D.: The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano, Science (80-), 363, 367–374, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7046, 2019.
O'Connor, C. and Joffe, H.: Intercoder Reliability in Qualitative Research: Debates and Practical Guidelines, Int. J. Qual. Meth., 19, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1177/1609406919899220, 2020.
Patrick, M. R., Houghton, B. F., Anderson, K. R., Poland, M. P., Montgomery-Brown, E., Johanson, I., Thelen, W., and Elias, T.: The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19190-1, 2020.
Peltier, A., Ferrazzini, V., Muro, A. Di, Kowalski, P., Villeneuve, N., Richter, N., Chevrel, O., Froger, J. L., Hrysiewicz, A., Gouhier, M., Coppola, D., Retailleau, L., Beauducel, F., Gurioli, L., Boissier, P., Brunet, C., Catherine, P., Fontaine, F., Lauret, F., Garavaglia, L., Lebreton, J., Canjamale, K., Desfete, N., Griot, C., Harris, A., Arellano, S., Liuzzo, M., Gurrieri, S., and Ramsey, M.: Volcano Crisis Management at Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) during the COVID-19 Lockdown, Seismol. Res. Lett., 92, 38–52, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200212, 2021.
Ruan, T., Kong, Q., McBride, S. K., Sethjiwala, A., and Lv, Q.: Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit, Sci. Rep.-UK, 12, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05359-9, 2022.
Ruiz, C. and Hernández, B.: Emotions and coping strategies during an episode of volcanic activity and their relations to place attachment, J. Environ. Psychol., 38, 279–287, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.03.008, 2014.
Smith, A. and Anderson, M.: Social Media Use in 2018, Pew Research Center, 2018.
Spence, P. R., Lachlan, K. A., Lin, X., and del Greco, M.: Variability in Twitter Content Across the Stages of a Natural Disaster: Implications for Crisis Communication, Commun. Q., 63, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.1080/01463373.2015.1012219, 2015.
Spruce, M., Arthur, R., and Williams, H. T. P.: Using social media to measure impacts of named storm events in the United Kingdom and Ireland, Meteorol. Appl., 27, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1887, 2020.
Spruce, M. D., Arthur, R., Robbins, J., and Williams, H. T. P.: Social sensing of high-impact rainfall events worldwide: a benchmark comparison against manually curated impact observations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2407–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, 2021.
Steed, R. J., Fuenzalida, A., Bossu, R., Bondár, I., Heinloo, A., Dupont, A., Saul, J., and Strollo, A.: Crowdsourcing triggers rapid, reliable earthquake locations, Sci. Adv., 5, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau9824, 2019.
Stovall, W. K., Ball, J. L., Westby, E. G., Poland, M. P., Wilkins, A., and Mulliken, K. M.: Officially social: Developing a social media crisis communication strategy for USGS Volcanoes during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption, Front. Commun., 8, 976041, https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2023.976041, 2023.
The Guardian: Lava from Hawaii volcano destroys hundreds more homes, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/05/hawaii-kilauea-eruption-lava-kapoho-bay-mayor-home (last access: 20 June 2023), 2018.
Valdez, D., ten Thij, M., Bathina, K., Rutter, L. A., and Bollen, J.: Social media insights into US mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic: Longitudinal analysis of twitter data, J. Med. Internet Res., 22, 12, https://doi.org/10.2196/21418, 2020.
Wadsworth, F. B., Llewellin, E. W., Farquharson, J. I., Gillies, J. K., Loisel, A., Frey, L., Ilyinskaya, E., Thordarson, T., Tramontano, S., Lev, E., Pankhurst, M. J., Rull, A. G., Asensio-ramos, M., Pérez, N. M., Hernández, P. A., Calvo, D., Solana, M. C., Kueppers, U., and Santabárbara, A. P.: Crowd-sourcing observations of volcanic eruptions during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall and Cumbre Vieja events, Nat. Commun., 13, 2611, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30333-4, 2022.
Williams, D. M., Avery, V. F., Coombs, M. L., Cox, D. A., Horwitz, L. R., McBride, S. K., McClymont, R. J., and Moran, S. C.: U. S. Geological Survey 2018 Kilauea Volcano Eruption Response in Hawai'i – After-Action Review, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020-1041, 56 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201041, 2020.
Williams, R. and Krippner, J.: The use of social media in volcano science communication: Challenges and opportunities, Volcanica, 1, I–VIII, https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.01.02.i-viii, 2019.
Wu, D. and Cui, Y.: Disaster early warning and damage assessment analysis using social media data and geo-location information, Decis. Support Syst., 111, 48–59, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2018.04.005, 2018.
Young, J. C., Arthur, R., Spruce, M., and Williams, H. T. P.: Social sensing of heatwaves, Sensors, 21, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.3390/s21113717, 2021.
Young, J. C., Arthur, R., Spruce, M., and Williams, H. T. P.: Social sensing of flood impacts in India: A case study of Kerala 2018, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 74, 102908, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102908, 2022.
Yu, M., Yang, C., and Li, Y.: Big data in natural disaster management: A review, Geosciences, 8, 5, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8050165, 2018.
Zhou, S., Kan, P., Huang, Q., and Silbernagel, J.: A guided latent Dirichlet allocation approach to investigate real-time latent topics of Twitter data during Hurricane Laura, J. Inf. Sci., 49, 2, https://doi.org/10.1177/01655515211007724, 2021.
Executive editor
This paper shows a very useful analysis of social media activities during volcanic eruptions. The authors used social sensing of Twitter posts to track social action and reaction changes throughout the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea, Island of Hawaiʻi.
This paper shows a very useful analysis of social media activities during volcanic eruptions....
Short summary
Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology. Analysing social media usage during volcanic crises can help us better understand the impacts of volcanic eruptions and how warning messages are received and actioned, to eventually better protect those people and their livelihoods. Our work shows how social media data could be used in real time during a volcanic crisis to learn more about volcanic eruptions.
Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint