Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 03 Jan 2025
| 03 Jan 2025
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Enrico Duo
Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca, Ferrara, Italy
Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
Earth Sciences Department, University of Cádiz INMAR, Avda. República Saharaui s/n, Puerto Real, 11510 Cádiz, Spain
Marine Le Gal
Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca, Ferrara, Italy
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc
Earth Sciences Department, University of Cádiz INMAR, Avda. República Saharaui s/n, Puerto Real, 11510 Cádiz, Spain
Paolo Ciavola
Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca, Ferrara, Italy
Department of Biological, Geological, and Environmental Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Related authors
Paola Emilia Souto-Ceccon, Juan Montes, Enrico Duo, Paolo Ciavola, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, and Clara Armaroli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1041–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset supports the growing need for information on coastal storm impacts. It covers different European countries and is an open-access tool that can be exploited, updated, or complemented by different users and for different purposes. Via labelling with unique identifiers, the database allows for a quick and consistent retrieval of all of the resources associated with a storm event. The adopted approach can be easily exported to all European countries and beyond.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Enrico Duo, Arthur Chris Trembanis, Stephanie Dohner, Edoardo Grottoli, and Paolo Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study illustrates the implementation of a local-scale post-event survey that combined GPS and UAV-based techniques with qualitative information collected through interviews with local stakeholders. The comprehensive approach employed in this case study was conducted on the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event that impacted the shoreline on the 5-6 February 2015, called the St Agatha storm.
Marc Sanuy, Enrico Duo, Wiebke S. Jäger, Paolo Ciavola, and José A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1825–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. Process-based models are used to predict hazards at receptors. Impacts are calculated through vulnerability relations. Simulations are integrated with a Bayesian-based approach to link source with consequences. The tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies and as support for coastal decision making.
Antonis Chatzipavlis, Daniele Trogu, Andrea Ruju, Juan Montes, Antonio Usai, Marco Porta, Giovanni Coco, Sandro De Muro, and Paolo Ciavola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2292, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the performance of an early warning system for coastal flooding operating at a beach scale. The system is found to effectively capture total water level exceedances based on predefined morphological thresholds and trigger timely warnings, particularly under energetic sea conditions. Its forecasts are found to align well with selected overwash/flood events of varying magnitude and duration, captured by an on-site coastal video monitoring station.
Paola Emilia Souto-Ceccon, Juan Montes, Enrico Duo, Paolo Ciavola, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, and Clara Armaroli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1041–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset supports the growing need for information on coastal storm impacts. It covers different European countries and is an open-access tool that can be exploited, updated, or complemented by different users and for different purposes. Via labelling with unique identifiers, the database allows for a quick and consistent retrieval of all of the resources associated with a storm event. The adopted approach can be easily exported to all European countries and beyond.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Y. Joseph Zhang, Tomas Fernandez-Montblanc, William Pringle, Hao-Cheng Yu, Linlin Cui, and Saeed Moghimi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2565–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2565-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating global ocean from deep basins to coastal areas is a daunting task but is important for disaster mitigation efforts. We present a new 3D global ocean model on flexible mesh to study both tidal and nontidal processes and total water prediction. We demonstrate the potential for
seamlesssimulation, on a single mesh, from the global ocean to a few estuaries along the US West Coast. The model can serve as the backbone of a global tide surge and compound flooding forecasting framework.
Enrico Duo, Arthur Chris Trembanis, Stephanie Dohner, Edoardo Grottoli, and Paolo Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study illustrates the implementation of a local-scale post-event survey that combined GPS and UAV-based techniques with qualitative information collected through interviews with local stakeholders. The comprehensive approach employed in this case study was conducted on the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event that impacted the shoreline on the 5-6 February 2015, called the St Agatha storm.
Marc Sanuy, Enrico Duo, Wiebke S. Jäger, Paolo Ciavola, and José A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1825–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. Process-based models are used to predict hazards at receptors. Impacts are calculated through vulnerability relations. Simulations are integrated with a Bayesian-based approach to link source with consequences. The tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies and as support for coastal decision making.
J. M. Brown, P. Ciavola, G. Masselink, R. McCall, and A. J. Plater
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 463–467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016, 2016
M. D. Harley, A. Valentini, C. Armaroli, L. Perini, L. Calabrese, and P. Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
L. Perini, L. Calabrese, G. Salerno, P. Ciavola, and C. Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper compares two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations, whose core is the Cost Distance tool of ArcGIS®. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods show a positive agreement.
I. Sekovski, C. Armaroli, L. Calabrese, F. Mancini, F. Stecchi, and L. Perini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2331–2346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2331-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2331-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The main idea behind this study was to contribute to a better understanding of coastal hazards and risks. This was achieved by proposing an approach that combines coastal flooding scenarios with different scenarios of urban growth. Once used jointly, these two methodologies can help to identify flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, which makes this combination particularly useful for coastal managers and planners.
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Semi-empirical forecast modelling of rip-current and shore-break wave hazards
A multiscale modelling framework of coastal flooding events for global to local flood hazard assessments
Super typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Tsunami detection methods for ocean-bottom pressure gauges
Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of Batukaras, a tourism village in Indonesia
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Catastrophic beach erosion induced by littoral drift on nearby beach after Samcheok LNG's massive coastal reclamation project
BN-FLEMO∆: A Bayesian Network-based Flood Loss Estimation Model for Adaptation Planning in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Impacts of Barrier-Island Breaching on Mainland Flooding During Storm Events applied to Moriches, NY
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Bruno Castelle, Jeoffrey Dehez, Jean-Philippe Savy, Sylvain Liquet, and David Carayon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2379–2397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2379-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2379-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces two new, simple, physics-informed hazard forecast models of rip current and shore-break waves, which are the two primary natural hazards beachgoers are exposed to in the surf zone. These models, which depend on a limited number of free parameters, accurately predict rip-current and shore-break wave hazard levels, including their modulation by tide elevation and incident wave conditions, opening new perspectives for forecasting multiple surf-zone hazards on sandy beaches.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key to the mitigation of coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations when providing actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models and bridges the fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three historical storms. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2255–2269, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2255-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2255-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from super typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting south China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2137–2154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events, and no clear trend can be identified. Often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2081–2096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple and effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1655–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths at different coastal sites. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, which is essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Changbin Lim, Tae Min Lim, and Jung-Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper underscores the importance of assessing changes in nearby shorelines before performing large-scale coastal construction projects, thus providing insights into methods that minimize potential damage. Consequently, this study presented an opportunity to investigate the ramifications of harbor and fishing port development, as well as large-scale reclamation, which can alter wave fields in coastal regions, on rapid and catastrophic erosion issues.
Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Nivedita Sairam, Lukas Schoppa, Le Thanh Sang, Do Ly Hoai Tan, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) faces severe flood risks from climatic and socio-economic changes, requiring effective adaptation solutions. Flood loss estimation is crucial, but advanced probabilistic models addressing key drivers and uncertainty are lacking. This study presents a probabilistic flood loss model with a feature selection paradigm for HCMC’s residential sector. Experiments using new survey data from flood-affected households demonstrate the model's superior performance.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Catherine Renae Jeffries, Robert Weiss, Jennifer L. Irish, and Kyle Mandli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Barrier islands are important to their adjacent mainland coastline. Breaching of barrier islands creates a channel of water between the ocean and bay and increases the storm surge along the mainland coast. To examine how breaching impacts the coast we simulated a hurricane and varied the number, locations, and sizes of different breaches. We learned that total breach area directly impacts coastal flooding, and breach locations are an important predictor of flooding.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Cited articles
André, C., Monfort, D., Bouzit, M., and Vinchon, C.: Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2003–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2003-2013, 2013.
Aribisala, O. D., Yum, S.-G., Adhikari, M. D., and Song, M.-S.: Flood Damage Assessment: A Review of Microscale Methodologies for Residential Buildings, Sustainability, 14, 13817, https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113817, 2022.
Armaroli, C., Duo, E., and Viavattene, C.: From Hazard to Consequences: Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Flooding Along the Emilia-Romagna Coastline, Italy, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 203, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00203, 2019.
Barquet, K. and Cumiskey, L.: Using participatory Multi-Criteria Assessments for assessing disaster risk reduction measures, Coast. Eng., 134, 93–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.006, 2018.
Barrington-Leigh, C. and Millard-Ball, A.: The world's user-generated road map is more than 80 % complete, PLoS ONE, 12, e0180698, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180698, 2017.
Bates, P. D., Dawson, R. J., Hall, J. W., Horritt, M. S., Nicholls, R. J., Wicks, J., and Hassan, M. A. A. M.: Simplified two-dimensional numerical modelling of coastal flooding and example applications, Coast. Eng., 52, 793–810, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.06.001, 2005.
Büttner, G., Soukup, T., and Kosztra, B.: CLC2012. Addendum to CLC2006 Technical Guidelines, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, 35 pp., https://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc_land_covers/library/gio-land/corine-landcover-clc/technical-guidelines/clc2012-addendum-clc2006-technical-guidelines (last access: 17 November 2023), 2014.
Creach, A., Pardo, S., Guillotreau, P., and Mercier, D.: The use of a micro-scale index to identify potential death risk areas due to coastal flood surges: lessons from Storm Xynthia on the French Atlantic coast, Nat. Hazards, 77, 1679–1710, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1669-y, 2015.
De Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards, 58, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6, 2011.
Diario de Cadiz: `Emma' se come las playas, https://www.diariodecadiz.es/noticias-provincia-cadiz/Emma-come-playas_0_1223278229.html (last access: 18 June 2023), 2018a.
Diario de Cadiz: El Ayuntamiento cifra en cuatro millones los daños del temporal, https://www.diariodecadiz.es/noticias-provincia-cadiz/Ayuntamiento-cifra-millones-danos-temporal_0_1225977960.html (last access: 18 June 2023), 2018b.
Dottori, F., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., Hirpa, F. A., and Feyen, L.: Development and evaluation of a framework for global flood hazard mapping, Adv.Water Resour., 94, 87–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.002, 2016.
Dottori, F., Kalas, M., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., and Feyen, L.: An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1111—1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, 2017.
Duo, E., Fernández-Montblanc, T., and Armaroli, C.: Semi-probabilistic coastal flood impact analysis: From deterministic hazards to multi-damage model impacts, Environ. Int., 143, 105884, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105884, 2020.
Duo, E., Montes-Pérez, J., and Souto-Ceccon, P. E.: ECFAS Impact Tool, D5.3 – Algorithms for impact assessment – ECFAS project (GA 101004211), https://www.ecfas.eu/ (Version 2), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7489035, 2022a.
Duo, E., Montes Pérez, J., Le Gal, M., Souto Ceccon, P. E., Cabrita, P., Fernández Montblanc, T., and Ciavola, P.: ECFAS Pan-EU Impact Catalogue, D5.4 – Pan-EU flood maps catalogue – ECFAS project (GA 101004211), https://www.ecfas.eu/, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6951527, 2022b.
EEA: The thematic accuracy of Corine land cover 2000 – assessment using LUCAS, Technical report No. 7/2006, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, 90 pp., https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2006_7 (last access: 17 November 2023), 2006.
Englhardt, J., de Moel, H., Huyck, C. K., de Ruiter, M. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: Enhancement of large-scale flood risk assessments using building-material-based vulnerability curves for an object-based approach in urban and rural areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1703–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, 2019.
Environment Agency: The costs and impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods, Report – SC140025/R1, https://rpaltd.co.uk/uploads/report_files/the-costs-and-impacts-of-the-winter-2013-to-2014-floods-report.pdf (last access: 17 November 2023), 2016.
European Space Agency and Airbus: Copernicus DEM EEA-10 [data set], European Space Agency and Airbus [data set], https://doi.org/10.5270/ESA-c5d3d65, 2022.
Eurostat: Real GDP per capita, Statistical Office of the European Union, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database (last access: 15 June 2023), 2019.
Ferreira, Ó., Plomaritis, T. A., and Costas, S.: Effectiveness assessment of risk reduction measures at coastal areas using a decision support system: Findings from Emma storm, Sci. Total Environ., 657, 124–135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.478, 2019.
FFSA-GEMA: La tempête Xynthia du 28 février 2010 Bilan chiffré au 31 décembre 2010, https://www.mrn.asso.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2010-bilan-tempete-xynthia-2010-ffsa-gema.pdf (last access: 18 June 2023), 2011.
Figueiredo, R. and Martina, M.: Using open building data in the development of exposure data sets for catastrophe risk modelling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 417–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-417-2016, 2016.
Figueiredo, R., Schröter, K., Weiss-Motz, A., Martina, M. L. V., and Kreibich, H.: Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, 2018.
Gerl, T., Kreibich, H., Franco, G., Marechal, D., and Schröter, K.: A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking, PLoS ONE, 11, e0159791, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159791, 2016.
Hallegatte, S., Ranger, N., Mestre, O., Dumas, P., Corfee-Morlot, J., Herweijer, C., and Wood, R. M.: Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen, Climatic Change, 104, 113–137, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9978-3, 2011.
Hinkel, J., Feyen, L., Hemer, M., Le Cozannet, G., Lincke, D., Marcos, M., Mentaschi, L., Merkens, J. L., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Nicholls, R. J., Vafeidis, A. T., van de Wal, R. S. W., Vousdoukas, M. I., Wahl, T., Ward, P. J., and Wolff, C.: Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk, Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001882, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001882, 2021.
Huizinga, J., de Moel, H., and Szewczyk, W.: Global flood depth-damage functions: Methodology and the database with guidelines, No. JRC105688, Joint Research Centre, https://doi.org/10.2760/16510, 2017.
Ieronymidi, E. and Grigoriadis, D.: Coastal dataset including exposure and vulnerability layers, Deliverable 3.1 – ECFAS Project (GA 101004211), https://www.ecfas.eu/ (5), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7319270, 2022.
Innerbichler, F., Kreisel, A., and Gruber, C.: Coastal Zones Nomenclature Guideline, https://land.copernicus.eu/user-corner/technical-library/coastal-zones-nomenclature-and-mapping-guideline.pdf (last access: 15 June 2023), 2021.
Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Melet, A. and Armaroli, C: Towards a pan-European coastal flood awareness system: Skill of extreme sea-level forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 1091844., https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1091844, 2023.
Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Barredo, J. I., Bates, P. D., Feyen, L., Gericke, A., Neal, J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012.
Koks, E. E., van Ginkel, K. C. H., van Marle, M. J. E., and Lemnitzer, A.: Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022.
Kolen, B., Slomp, R., and Jonkman, S. N.: The impacts of storm Xynthia February 27–28, 2010 in France: lessons for flood risk management: Impacts of storm Xynthia, J. Flood Risk Managee, 6, 261–278, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12011, 2013.
Kystdirektoratet: COMRISK SP7 Report – Risk Assessment of the Wadden Sea, https://kyst.dk/media/541ffqmy/risk-assessment-wadden-sea.pdf (last access: 17 November 2023), 2004.
La Voz del Sur: Temporal Emma en Cádiz Playa de la Victoria, chiringuito el Potito, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMpS4VshZgE (last access: 18 June 2023), 2018.
Le Gal, M., Fernández Montblanc, T., Montes Pérez, J., Duo, E., Souto Ceccon, P. E., Cabrita, P., and Ciavola, P.: ECFAS Pan-EU Flood Catalogue, D5.4 – Pan-EU flood maps catalogue – ECFAS project (GA 101004211), https://www.ecfas.eu/ (1.3) [Data set], Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7488978, 2022.
Le Gal, M., Fernández-Montblanc, Duo, E., Montes, J., Cabrita, P., Souto Ceccon, P., Gastal, V., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: A new European coastal flood database for low-medium intensity events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023.
Lichter, M., Vafeidis, A. T., and Nicholls, R. J.: Exploring Data-Related Uncertainties in Analyses of Land Area and Population in the “Low-Elevation Coastal Zone” (LECZ), J. Coast. Res., 27, 757–768, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00072.1, 2011.
Malvarez, G., Ferreira, O., Navas, F., Cooper, J. A. G., Gracia-Prieto, F. J., and Talavera, L.: Storm impacts on a coupled human-natural coastal system: Resilience of developed coasts, Sci. Total Environ., 768, 144987, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.144987, 2021.
Manselli, L., Molinari, D., Pogliani, A., Zambrini, F., and Menduni, G.: Improvements and Operational Application of a Zero-Order Quick Assessment Model for Flood Damage: A Case Study in Italy, Water, 14, 373, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030373, 2022.
Martínez-Gomariz, E., Forero-Ortiz, E., Guerrero-Hidalga, M., Castán, S., and Gómez, M.: Flood Depth-Damage Curves for Spanish Urban Areas, Sustainability, 12, 2666, https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072666, 2020.
Marvi, M. T.: A review of flood damage analysis for a building structure and contents, Nat. Hazards, 102, 967–995, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03941-w, 2020.
Merz, B. and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds, Nat. Hazards, 51, 437–458, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9452-6, 2009.
Meyer, V., Becker, N., Markantonis, V., Schwarze, R., van den Bergh, J. C. J. M., Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., Ciavola, P., Genovese, E., Green, C., Hallegatte, S., Kreibich, H., Lequeux, Q., Logar, I., Papyrakis, E., Pfurtscheller, C., Poussin, J., Przyluski, V., Thieken, A. H., and Viavattene, C.: Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013.
Molinari, D., Scorzini, A. R., Arrighi, C., Carisi, F., Castelli, F., Domeneghetti, A., Gallazzi, A., Galliani, M., Grelot, F., Kellermann, P., Kreibich, H., Mohor, G. S., Mosimann, M., Natho, S., Richert, C., Schroeter, K., Thieken, A. H., Zischg, A. P., and Ballio, F.: Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020.
Montes, J., Simarro, G., Benavente, J., Plomaritis, T., and del Río, L.: Morphodynamics Assessment by Means of Mesoforms and Video-Monitoring in a Dissipative Beach, Geosciences, 8, 448, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8120448, 2018.
Nguyen, T. T. X., Bonetti, J., Rogers, K., and Woodroffe, C. D.: Indicator-based assessment of climate-change impacts on coasts: A review of concepts, methodological approaches and vulnerability indices, Ocean Coast. Manage., 123, 18–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.11.022, 2016.
Nofal, O. M., van de Lindt, J. W., and Do, T. Q.: Multi-variate and single-variable flood fragility and loss approaches for buildings, Reliabil.Eng. Syst. Safe., 202, 106971, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106971, 2020.
Paprotny, D., Kreibich, H., Morales-Nápoles, O., Wagenaar, D., Castellarin, A., Carisi, F., Bertin, X., Merz, B., and Schröter, K.: A probabilistic approach to estimating residential losses from different flood types, Nat. Hazards, 105, 2569–2601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04413-x, 2021.
Plomaritis, T. A., Ferreira, O., and Costas, S.: Validation of a Bayesian based Early Warning System for coastal hazards: the Emma storm impact at Faro Beach (South Portugal), in: Coastal Sediments 2019, International Conference on Coastal Sediments 2019, 27–31 May 2019, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida, USA, 1447–1459, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811204487_0126, 2019.
Poljanšek, K., Marin Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T., and Clark, I. (Eds.): Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, EUR 28034 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, JRC102482, ISBN 978-92-79-60679-3, https://doi.org/10.2788/842809, 2017.
Rosina, K., Batista e Silva, F., Vizcaino, P., Marín Herrera, M., Freire, S., and Schiavina, M.: Increasing the detail of European land use/cover data by combining heterogeneous data sets, Int. J. Digit. Earth, 13, 602–626, https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2018.1550119, 2018.
Sancho-García, A., Guillén, J., Gracia, V., Rodríguez-Gómez, A. C., and Rubio-Nicolás, B.: The Use of News Information Published in Newspapers to Estimate the Impact of Coastal Storms at a Regional Scale, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 9, 497, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9050497, 2021.
Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1825–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, 2018.
Schiavina, M., Freire, S., and MacManus, K.: GHS population grid multitemporal (1975–1990–2000–2015), R2019A, European Commission, https://doi.org/10.2905/0C6B9751-A71F-4062-830B-43C9F432370F, 2019.
Schiavina, M., Batista, F., Rosina, K., Ziemba, L., Marin Herrera, M., Craglia, M., Lavalle, C., Kemper, T., and Freire, S.: ENACT-POP R2020A – ENACT 2011 Population Grid, European Commission, https://doi.org/10.2905/BE02937C-5A08-4732-A24A-03E0A48BDCDA, 2020.
Souto Ceccon, P. E., Duo, E., Ciavola, P., Fernandez-Montblanc, T., and Armaroli, C.: Database of extreme events, test cases selection and available data, Deliverable 5.1 – ECFAS Project (GA 101004211), https://www.ecfas.eu/ (2), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7488643, 2021.
Souto-Ceccon, P. E., Montes-Perez, J., Duo, E., Ciavola, P., Fernandez Montblanc, T., and Armaroli, C.: A European database of resources on coastal storm impacts, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-183, in review, 2024.
Spencer, T., Brooks, S. M., Möller, I., and Evans, B. R.: Where Local Matters: Impacts of a Major North Sea Storm Surge, Eos Trans. AGU, 95, 269–270, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO300002, 2014.
Spencer, T., Brooks, S. M., Evans, B. R., Tempest, J. A., and Möller, I.: Southern North Sea storm surge event of 5 December 2013: Water levels, waves and coastal impacts, Earth-Sci. Rev., 146, 120–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.04.002, 2015.
Talavera, L., del Río, L., and Benavente, J.: UAS-based High-resolution Record of the Response of a Seminatural Sandy Spit to a Severe Storm, J. Coast. Res., 95, 679–683, https://doi.org/10.2112/SI95-132.1, 2020.
Taramelli, A., Righini, M., Valentini, E., Alfieri, L., Gatti, I., and Gabellani, S.: Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022.
Thieken, A. H., Bessel, T., Kienzler, S., Kreibich, H., Müller, M., Pisi, S., and Schröter, K.: The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016.
Thomas, K., Hardy, R. D., Lazrus, H., Mendez, M., Orlove, B., Rivera-Collazo, I., Roberts, J. T., Rockman, M., Warner, B. P., and Winthrop, R.: Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review, WIREs Clim. Change, 10, e565, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.565, 2019.
Van Dongeren, A., Ciavola, P., Martinez, G., Viavattene, C., Bogaard, T., Ferreira, O., Higgins, R., and McCall, R.: Introduction to RISC-KIT: Resilience-increasing strategies for coasts, Coast. Eng., 134, 2–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.007, 2018.
Van Ginkel, K. C. H., Dottori, F., Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., and Koks, E. E.: Flood risk assessment of the European road network, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, 2021.
Velegrakis A., Chatzistratis. D., Chalazas, T., Armaroli C., Schiavon , E., Konstantina, P., Antigoni, N., and Giorgia, G.: Final report on users' needs and requirements. Regulations vs needs and technical specifications, Deliverable 2.4 – ECFAS Project (GA 101004211), https://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/documents/downloadPublic?documentIds=080166e5fa9eb7a9&appId=PPGM (last access: 24 October 2024), 2022.
Viavattene, C., Micou, A. P., Owen, D., Priest, S., andParker, D.: Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators, Guidance Document. Deliverable No: D.2.2 – Coastal Vulnerability Indicator Library, https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/15199/1/RISC-KIT_D.2.2_CVIL_Guidance_Document.pdf (last access: 18 June 2023), 2015.
Viavattene, C., Jiménez, J. A., Ferreira, O., Priest, S., Owen, D., and McCall, R.: Selecting coastal hotspots to storm impacts at the regional scale: a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, Coast. Eng., 134, 33–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.09.002, 2018.
Vinet, F., Lumbroso, D., Defossez, S., and Boissier, L.: A comparative analysis of the loss of life during two recent floods in France: the sea surge caused by the storm Xynthia and the flash flood in Var, Nat. Hazards, 61, 1179–1201, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9975-5, 2012.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Bouziotas, D., Giardino, A., Bouwer, L. M., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., and Feyen, L.: Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, 2018a.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Bianchi, A., Dottori, F., and Feyen, L.: Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 776–780, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4, 2018b.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Dottori, F., Giardino, A., Bouziotas, D., Bianchi, A., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L.: Developments in Large-Scale Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016.
Wagenaar, D. J., de Bruijn, K. M., Bouwer, L. M., and de Moel, H.: Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1-2016, 2016.
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS)...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint