Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024
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the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 14 Feb 2024
| 14 Feb 2024
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Elke Magda Inge Meyer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Institute of Coastal Systems, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany
Lidia Gaslikova
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Institute of Coastal Systems, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany
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The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
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Sea level rise does more than lift the ocean’s surface; it also changes how tides and storm surges behave. Our model simulations for the German Bight show that the nonlinear interaction of tide and surge contributes a lot to the uncertainties of water level simulation, while the nonlinear effects of sea level rise on the oceanic components are systematic but small. Even so, these subtle changes matter for precise estimation of extreme water levels and for improving coastal risk assessments.
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In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events, and no clear trend can be identified. Often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
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Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
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High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
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The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
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Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of...
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