Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 24 Apr 2024
| 24 Apr 2024
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Eric Mortensen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Timothy Tiggeloven
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Toon Haer
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Bas van Bemmel
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, The Hague, 2500 GH, the Netherlands
Dewi Le Bars
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, De Bilt, 3731 GA, the Netherlands
Sanne Muis
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Deltares, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
Dirk Eilander
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Deltares, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
Frederiek Sperna Weiland
Deltares, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
Arno Bouwman
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, The Hague, 2500 GH, the Netherlands
Willem Ligtvoet
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, The Hague, 2500 GH, the Netherlands
Philip J. Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the Netherlands
Deltares, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
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Bjorn Backeberg, Jemma Johnson, Natalia Aleksandrova, Cornelis Slobbe, Fabio Mangini, Marcello Passaro, Sanne Muis, Pavel Ditmar, Antonio Bonaduce, Gundula Winter, and Michael Hart-Davis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3916, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Coastal cities face growing flood risk from rising seas and storms. Scientists estimate dangerous water levels using satellite measurements of sea level and computer models of ocean behaviour, but the two are often combined inconsistently. We reviewed this research and found the real challenge is not merging the data, but making sure both methods measure the same thing, the same way. Solving this could lead to more reliable, consistent flood-risk estimates for coastal communities worldwide.
Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kees Boersma, Tomris Cesuroglu, Nathan Clark, Tina Comes, Ashok Dahal, Sonja Fransen, Jasper Verschuur, Carmen Anthonj, Srijith Balakrishnan, Jens de Bruijn, Eefje Hendriks, Rodrigo Mena Fluhmann, Goda Perlaviciute, Linda Steg, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Cees van Westen, Funda Atun, Anja Schreijer, and Nicole van Maanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4589–4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4589-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4589-2026, 2026
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We explore five core challenges that need to be addressed in order to move towards the Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management approach. This approach has been proposed within the newly emerging paradigm of a more holistic approach to managing the risks associated with climatic and/or non-climatic hazards and non-climatic risk drivers. We elaborate on each challenge, discuss why they matter for comprehensive disaster risk management, and provide ideas of how to overcome them.
Kai Kornhuber, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wiebke S. Jäger, Pauline Rivoire, Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Fabiola Banfi, Fulden Batibeniz, James Carruthers, Carlo De Michele, Silvia De Angeli, Cristina Deidda, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Andreas H. Fink, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Katharina Küpfer, Patrick Ludwig, Douglas Maraun, Gabriele Messori, Shruti Nath, Fiachra O'Loughlin, Joaquim G. Pinto, Benjamin Poschlod, Alexandre M. Ramos, Colin Raymond, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Deepti Singh, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Philip J. Ward, and Christopher J. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4309–4334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4309-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4309-2026, 2026
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Impacts from extreme weather events may become more severe due to increased likelihood of compounding events under global warming, which challenge present day climate modelling and forecasting capacities. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications.
Tarun Sadana, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Dirk Eilander, Bruno Merz, Hans de Moel, Tim Busker, Veerle C. Bril, and Jens de Bruijn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5491–5519, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5491-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5491-2026, 2026
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We evaluated the open-source hydrodynamic model SFINCS using satellite data from 499 historical flood events across 96 countries. Our study shows that larger upstream river basins are modelled more accurately, while using observed river gauges and high-resolution elevation data can improve results. Our findings highlight the importance of large-scale validation with satellite data and sensitivity analyses to enhance future global flood hazard assessments and prediction accuracy.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Klaus Wyser, Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfthout, and Irene Trombini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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As Antarctica loses more ice, increasing amounts of fresh water enter the ocean and can change Earth's climate. We used a climate model in which Antarctic ice loss responds to changing ocean conditions. We found that this feedback first increases warming near the ice shelves but later slows both Antarctic and global warming by changing the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. These results show that including these interactions is important for improving long-term sea-level and climate projections.
Natalia Aleksandrova, Jelmer Veenstra, and Sanne Muis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 5759–5771, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-5759-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-5759-2026, 2026
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Extreme sea levels during storms can lead to coastal flooding and sediment displacement. In the paper, we present an expanded global dataset of sea levels, produced using a global ocean model driven by ERA5 reanalysis – a state-of-the-art dataset of historical weather and climate. The strengths and limitations of the dataset are discussed by comparing it to observed sea levels. The dataset covers a period of 1950–2024, improving our understanding of the global frequency of extreme water levels.
Alessia Riveros, Chamidu Gunaratne, Mario Martinelli, and Frederiek Christianne Sperna Weiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2437–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2437-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2437-2026, 2026
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Flash floods and landslides have caused severe economic damages and loss of life, especially in mountainous regions e.g. Liguria. We created susceptibility maps to both hazards based on past recorded events and open-data such as slopes and altitude. We found a similar high predisposition to both hazards along the coast. Outside the coastal area, river valleys and urban areas (or upper river courses) exhibited high susceptibility only to flash floods (or landslides).
Poppy E. Webb, Doris Vertegaal, Martha M. Vogel, Chrisopher D. Jack, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2454, 2026
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This study explains why the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique in 2019 were so severe. By combining hydrolgical modelling with insights from interviews, we found that land-use changes, including deforestation and unplanned urban growth, worsened flooding alongside climate change. The results show that understanding disasters requires considering local socio-economic drivers, helping reveal overlooked drivers of risk and supporting better planning to reduce future impacts.
René M. van Westen, Caroline A. Katsman, and Dewi Le Bars
Ocean Sci., 22, 1353–1376, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026, 2026
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) modulates the global climate and dynamic sea level. A transition of the AMOC to a much weaker state would cause a redistribution of dynamic sea level across the global ocean surface. Here, we analyse climate model simulations to investigate dynamic sea-level changes associated with a collapsing AMOC. Under an AMOC collapse, the dynamic sea level rises substantially in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
Geosci. Commun., 9, 185–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-185-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-185-2026, 2026
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Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
Rita Lecci, Robyn Gwee, Kun Yan, Sanne Muis, Nadia Pinardi, Jun She, Martin Verlaan, Simona Masina, Wenshan Li, Hui Wang, Salvatore Causio, Antonio Novellino, Marco Alba, Etiënne Kras, Sandra Gaytan Aguilar, and Jan-Bart Calewaert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1767–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, 2026
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This study explored how sea level is changing along the China-Europe Sea Route. By combining satellite and in-situ observations with advanced modeling, the research identified ongoing sea level rise and an increasing frequency of extreme water level events in some regions. These findings underscore the importance of continued monitoring and provide useful knowledge to support long-term planning, coastal resilience, and informed decision-making.
Doris M. Vertegaal, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Natalia Aleksandrova, Tycho Bovenschen, Fernaldi Gradiyanto, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Henrique M. D. Goulart, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1417–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1417-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1417-2026, 2026
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This study highlights the need to disentangle climate change effects on flood drivers using storyline attribution. Whether information is presented as change in one or multiple drivers, or as change in hazard or impact, determines the attribution statement. For compound flooding from tropical cyclone Idai, that hit Mozambique in 2019, we attribute 1–19 % of the flood hazard and 8–35 % of the damage to climate change. The attribution framework can be applied to other events worldwide.
Philip J. Ward, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Judith N. Claassen, James Daniell, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Julius Schlumberger, Timothy Tiggeloven, Silvia Torresan, Nicole van Maanen, Andrew Warren, Carmen D. Álvarez-Albelo, Vanessa Banks, Benjamin Blanz, Veronica Casartelli, Jordan Correa, Julia Crummy, Anne Sophie Daloz, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Juan José Díaz-Hernández, Jaime Díaz-Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Davide Ferrario, David Geurts, Sara García-González, Joel C. Gill, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Wiebke S. Jäger, Abel López-Díez, Lin Ma, Jaroslav Mysiak, Diep Ngoc Nguyen, Noemi Padrón Fumero, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Karina Reiter, Jana Sillmann, Lara Smale, and Tristian Stolte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1325–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1325-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1325-2026, 2026
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Disasters often result from interactions between different hazards, like floods triggering landslides, or earthquakes followed by tropical cyclones, so-called multi-hazards. People and societies are increasingly exposed and vulnerable to these multi-hazards. Assessing these aspects is referred to as multi-risk assessment and management. In this paper we synthesise key learnings from the MYRIAD-EU (Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the E.U.) project, reflecting on progress and challenges faced in addressing multi-hazards and multi-risk.
Huazhi Li, Robert A. Jane, Dirk Eilander, Alejandra R. Enríquez, Toon Haer, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 391–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-391-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-391-2026, 2026
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We assess the likelihood of widespread compound flooding along the U.S. coastline. Using a large set of generated plausible events preserving observed dependence, we find that nearly half of compound floods on the West coast affect multiple sites. Such events are rarer on the East coast while most compound events affect single sites on the Gulf coast. Our results underscore the importance of including spatial dependence in compound flood risk assessment and can help in better risk management.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian R. Stolte, Helena M. Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6132, 2026
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Flood vulnerability is too often analysed for one moment in time (static), whereas vulnerability is highly dynamic. We reviewed 67 articles for their flood vulnerability methodologies and found that traditional methods for unraveling flood vulnerability deal differently with dynamic vulnerability. Each method seems to lend itself well for specific concepts of dynamics and different aspects of vulnerability. We recommend to use the complementary strengths of these approaches to improve the field.
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2295–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025, 2025
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Disaster risk management faces growing challenges from multiple, changing hazards. Interviews with stakeholders in five European regions reveal that climate change, urban growth, and socio-economic shifts increase vulnerability and exposure. Measures to reduce one risk can worsen others, highlighting the need for better coordination. The study calls for flexible, context-specific strategies that connect scientific risk assessments with real-world decision-making.
Wei Li, Philip J. Ward, and Lia van Wesenbeeck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4663, 2025
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This study presents a novel model that captures the interactions among water, energy, and food, revealing how human activities and natural processes mutually shape one another. It shows how human activities alter water quantity and quality, and how these changes reshape resource availability and subsequent human resource use. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei case study demonstrates the model's value for advancing hydrological science and informing sustainable and equitable resource management.
Gwendoline Ducros, Timothy Tiggeloven, Lin Ma, Anne Sophie Daloz, Nina Schuhen, Judith Claassen, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4693–4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4693-2025, 2025
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Our study finds that heatwave, drought and wildfire events occurring simultaneously in Scandinavia are pronounced in the summer months; and the heat-drought 2018 event led to a drop in gross domestic product, affecting agriculture and forestry imports, further impacting Europe's trade balance. This research shows the importance of ripple effects of multi-hazard, and that forest management and adaptation measures are vital to reducing the risks of heat-related multi-hazards in vulnerable areas.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4593–4612, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, 2025
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, storm surges that are rarer are given a higher weight than moderate storm surges. Additionally, we found that the performance of some of the neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the future application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4263–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4263-2025, 2025
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Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose a set of recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Wiebke S. Jäger, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Timothy Tiggeloven, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2751–2769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, 2025
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Multiple hazards, occurring simultaneously or consecutively, can have more extreme impacts than single hazards. We examined the disaster records in the global emergency events database EM-DAT to better understand this phenomenon. We developed a method to identify such multi-hazards and analysed their reported impacts using statistics. Multi-hazards have accounted for a disproportionate number of the impacts, but there appear to be different archetypal patterns in which the impacts compound.
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, 2025
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Ocean warming around Antarctica leads to ice melting and sea-level rise. The meltwater that flows into the surrounding ocean can lead to enhanced warming of the seawater, thereby again increasing melting and sea-level rise. This process, however, is not currently included in climate models. Through a simple mathematical approach, we find that this process can lead to more melting and greater sea-level rise, possibly increasing the Antarctic contribution to 21st century sea-level rise by 80 %.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2591–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, 2025
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events, and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Dewi Le Bars, Iris Keizer, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 21, 1303–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025, 2025
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While preparing a new set of sea level scenarios for the Netherlands, we found out that many climate models overestimate the changes in ocean circulation for the last 30 years. To quantify this effect, we defined three methods that rely on diverse and independent observations: tide gauges, satellite altimetry, temperature and salinity in the ocean, land ice melt, etc. Based on these observations, we define a few methods to select models and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
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Global flood models are key to the mitigation of coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations when providing actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models and bridges the fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three historical storms. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
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Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
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This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Preprint archived
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The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
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Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. Van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4341–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, 2024
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Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. Vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in the literature. Our study reviews over 1510 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can be directly used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and landslides.
Bas van Bemmel, Irena Itova, and Ismay Bax
AGILE GIScience Ser., 5, 47, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-5-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-5-47-2024, 2024
Willem J. van Verseveld, Albrecht H. Weerts, Martijn Visser, Joost Buitink, Ruben O. Imhoff, Hélène Boisgontier, Laurène Bouaziz, Dirk Eilander, Mark Hegnauer, Corine ten Velden, and Bobby Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3199–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, 2024
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We present the wflow_sbm distributed hydrological model, recently released by Deltares, as part of the Wflow.jl open-source modelling framework in the programming language Julia. Wflow_sbm has a fast runtime, making it suitable for large-scale modelling. Wflow_sbm models can be set a priori for any catchment with the Python tool HydroMT-Wflow based on globally available datasets, which results in satisfactory to good performance (without much tuning). We show this for a number of specific cases.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
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An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Marjanne J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-274, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Flash floods are damaging natural hazard which often occur in the European Alps. High resolution climate model output is combined with high resolution distributed hydrological models to model changes in flash flood frequency and intensity. Results show a similar flash flood frequency for autumn in the future, but a decrease in summer. However, the future discharge simulations indicate an increase in the flash flood severity in both summer and autumn leading to more severe flash flood impacts.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
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Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
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The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
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This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Mar J. Zander, Pety J. Viguurs, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-207, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We perform a modelling study to research potential future changes in flash flood occurrence in the European Alps. We use new high-resolution numerical climate simulations, which can simulate the type of local, intense rainstorms which trigger flash floods, combined with high-resolution hydrological modelling. We find that flash floods would become less frequent in summers in our future climate scenario, with little change in autumns. However, the maximal severity would increase in both seasons.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
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We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
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Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various...
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