Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023
Research article
 | 
05 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 05 Jul 2023

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region

Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson

Related authors

Record low sea levels in the Bothnian Bay in November 2024
Laura Tuomi, Milla M. Johansson, Andrew Twelves, Mika Rantanen, Priidik Lagemaa, Hedi Kanarik, Jani Särkkä, Urmas Raudsepp, and Antti Westerlund
State Planet, 7-osr10, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-16-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-16-2026, 2026
Short summary
Future rime ice conditions for energy infrastructure over Fennoscandia resolved with a high-resolution regional climate model
Oskari Rockas, Pia Isolähteenmäki, Marko Laine, Anders V. Lindfors, Karoliina Hämäläinen, and Anton Laakso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1813–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1813-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1813-2026, 2026
Short summary
Studying anomalous propagation over marine areas using an experimental AIS receiver set-up
Laura Rautiainen, Milla M. Johansson, Mikko Lensu, Jani Tyynelä, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Mikael Hasu, Ken Stenbäck, Harry Lonka, and Lauri Laakso
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 2763–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-2763-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-2763-2026, 2026
Short summary
How well do the regional atmospheric and oceanic models describe the Antarctic sea ice albedo?
Kristiina Verro, Cecilia Äijälä, Roberta Pirazzini, Ruzica Dadic, Damien Maure, Willem Jan van de Berg, Giacomo Traversa, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Petteri Uotila, Xavier Fettweis, Biagio Di Mauro, and Milla Johansson
The Cryosphere, 19, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Currents and their drivers in the Archipelago Sea: insights from ADCP measurements
Hedi Kanarik, Laura Tuomi, Pekka Alenius, Elina Miettunen, Milla Johansson, Tuomo Roine, Antti Westerlund, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Ocean Sci., 21, 2125–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2125-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2125-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, NOAA National Geophysical Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009. a
Averkiev, A. S. and Klevannyy, K. A.: A case study of the impact of cyclonic trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland, Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 707–714, 2010. a, b
Bardet, L., Duluc, C.-M., Rebour, V., and L'Her, J.: Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges along the French coast, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1627–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1627-2011, 2011. a
Bernardara, P., Andreewsky, M., and Benoit, M.: Application of regional frequency analysis to the estimation of extreme storm surges, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C02008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006229, 2011. a
Calafat, F. M. and Marcos, M.: Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 1877–1883, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1913049117, 2020. a, b, c, d
Download
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint