Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
Research article
21 Apr 2023
Research article |  | 21 Apr 2023

Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models

Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore

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Cited articles

Adler, S., Chimani, B., Drechsel, S., Haslinger, K., Hiebl, J., Meyer, V., Resch, G., Rudolph, J., Vergeiner, J., Zingerle, C., Marigo, G., Fischer, A., and Seiser, B.: Das Klima: Von Tirol-Südtirol-Belluno, ZAMG, Autonome Provinz Bozen, ARPAV, (last access: 5 October 2022), 2015. 
Alvioli, M., Melillo, M., Guzzetti, F., Rossi, M., Palazzi, E., von Hardenberg, J., Brunetti, M. T., and Peruccacci, S.: Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy, Sci. Total Environ., 630, 1528–1543,, 2018. 
Basher, R.: Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 364, 2167–2182,, 2006. 
Bogaard, T. and Greco, R.: Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39,, 2018. 
Bolker, B. M., Brooks, M. E., Clark, C. J., Geange, S. W., Poulsen, J. R., Stevens, M. H. H., and White, J.-S. S.: Generalized linear mixed models: a practical guide for ecology and evolution, Trends Ecol. Evol., 24, 127–135,, 2009. 
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Final-revised paper