Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 21 Apr 2023
| 21 Apr 2023
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Institute for Earth Observation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Mateo Moreno
Institute for Earth Observation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Alice Crespi
Institute for Earth Observation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Peter James Zellner
Institute for Earth Observation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Stefano Luigi Gariano
CNR IRPI, Perugia, Italy
Maria Teresa Brunetti
CNR IRPI, Perugia, Italy
Massimo Melillo
CNR IRPI, Perugia, Italy
Silvia Peruccacci
CNR IRPI, Perugia, Italy
Francesco Marra
Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Padua, Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council (CNR-ISAC), Bologna, Italy
Robin Kohrs
Institute for Earth Observation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
Jason Goetz
Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
Volkmar Mair
Office for Geology and Building Materials Testing, Autonomous Province of Bolzano – South Tyrol, Cardano, Italy
Massimiliano Pittore
Institute for Earth Observation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Eurac Research, Bolzano-Bozen, Italy
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Satellite and rain gauge data are tested to predict landslides in India, where the annual toll of human lives and loss of property urgently demands the implementation of strategies to prevent geo-hydrological instability. For this purpose, we calculated empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation. The validation of thresholds showed that satellite-based rainfall data perform better than ground-based data, and the best performance is obtained with an hourly temporal resolution.
Michael Matiu, Alice Crespi, Giacomo Bertoldi, Carlo Maria Carmagnola, Christoph Marty, Samuel Morin, Wolfgang Schöner, Daniele Cat Berro, Gabriele Chiogna, Ludovica De Gregorio, Sven Kotlarski, Bruno Majone, Gernot Resch, Silvia Terzago, Mauro Valt, Walter Beozzo, Paola Cianfarra, Isabelle Gouttevin, Giorgia Marcolini, Claudia Notarnicola, Marcello Petitta, Simon C. Scherrer, Ulrich Strasser, Michael Winkler, Marc Zebisch, Andrea Cicogna, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Debernardi, Mattia Faletto, Mauro Gaddo, Lorenzo Giovannini, Luca Mercalli, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Andrea Sušnik, Alberto Trenti, Stefano Urbani, and Viktor Weilguni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1343–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The first Alpine-wide assessment of station snow depth has been enabled by a collaborative effort of the research community which involves more than 30 partners, 6 countries, and more than 2000 stations. It shows how snow in the European Alps matches the climatic zones and gives a robust estimate of observed changes: stronger decreases in the snow season at low elevations and in spring at all elevations, however, with considerable regional differences.
Yair Rinat, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Asher Metzger, Yoav Levi, Pavel Khain, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Marcelo Rosensaft, and Efrat Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 917–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of such events is important as flash floods are poorly understood and documented processes, especially in deserts. A small portion of the studied basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme rainfall intensities resulting in local flash floods of high magnitudes. Flash floods started and reached their peak within tens of minutes. Forecasts poorly predicted the flash floods mostly due to location inaccuracy.
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Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical...
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