Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models

Steger, Stefan; Moreno, Mateo; Crespi, Alice; Zellner, Peter James; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Marra, Francesco; Kohrs, Robin; Goetz, Jason; Mair, Volkmar; Pittore, Massimiliano

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 4

Research article

|

21 Apr 2023

Research article |

| 21 Apr 2023

Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models

Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023-supplement

Data sets

High-resolution daily series (1980 - 2018) and monthly climatologies (1981 - 2010) of mean temperature and precipitation for Trentino - South Tyrol (north-eastern Italian Alps) Alice Crespi, Michael Matiu, Giacomo Bertoldi, Marcello Petitta, and Marc Zebisch https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.924502

A Collaborative Web Mapping Application Based on REST API Services and Open Data on Landslides and Floods in Italy (https://idrogeo.isprambiente.it/app/page/open-data) Carla Iadanza, Alessandro Trigila, Paolo Starace, Alessio Dragoni, Tommaso Biondo, and Marco Roccisano https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10020089

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Short summary

We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.