Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
05 Apr 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 05 Apr 2023

A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change

Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky

Related authors

The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
The Role of Weather Regimes for Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Cold-Wave Days in Central Europe
Selina M. Kiefer, Patrick Ludwig, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Model calibration and streamflow simulations for the extreme drought event of 2018 on the Rhine River Basin using WRF-Hydro 5.2.0
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
High-resolution LGM climate of Europe and the Alpine region using the regional climate model WRF
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary
Dynamics and impacts of monsoon-induced geological hazards: a 2022 flood study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
Short summary
Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Mind the gap: misalignment between drought monitoring and community realities
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona, USA, case study
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Aalbers, E. E., van Meijgaard, E., Lenderink, G., de Vries, H., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-954, 2022. a
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 228–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. a, b
Amante, C. and Eakins, B.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, National Geophysical Data Center [data set], NESDIS, NOAA, US Dept, Commerce, Boulder, CO, USA, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2008. a
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and Reinhardt, T.: Operational Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction with the COSMO Model: Description and Sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011. a
Ban, N., Caillaud, C., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Sobolowski, S., Adinolfi, M., Ahrens, B., Alias, A., Anders, I., Bastin, S., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Brisson, E., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S. C., Christensen, O. B., Fernández, J., Fita, L., Frisius, T., Gašparac, G., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Haugen, J. E., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lenderink, G., Leutwyler, D., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Mercogliano, P., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Raffa, M., Remedio, A. R., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Srnec, L., Steensen, B. M., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., de Vries, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zander, M. J.: The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 57, 275–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w, 2021. a
Executive editor
I agree with the handling editor and suggest considering it as a highlight paper.
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint