Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
Research article
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05 Apr 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 05 Apr 2023

A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change

Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky

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Cited articles

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Executive editor
I agree with the handling editor and suggest considering it as a highlight paper.
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
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