Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Apr 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 05 Apr 2023
| 05 Apr 2023
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Florian Ehmele
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Mário J. Franca
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Susanna Mohr
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
James E. Daniell
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Uwe Ehret
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Marie Hundhausen
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Peter Knippertz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Katharina Küpfer
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Michael Kunz
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Bernhard Mühr
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Julian Quinting
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Andreas M. Schäfer
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Frank Seidel
Institute for Water and River Basin Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Christina Wisotzky
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Economics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Related authors
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we provide insights into how future heatwaves might spread, how they might persist for longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps us understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Selina M. Kiefer, Patrick Ludwig, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Weather forecasts 14 days in advance generally have a low skill but not always. We identify reasons thereof depending on the atmospheric flow, shown by Weather Regimes (WRs). If the WRs during the forecasts follow climatological patterns, forecast skill is increased. The forecast of a cold-wave day is better when the European Blocking WR (high pressure around the British Isles) is present a few days before a cold-wave day. These results can be used to assess the reliability of predictions.
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We looked at how well the model WRF-Hydro performed during the 2018 drought event in the River Rhine basin, even though it is typically used for floods. We used the meteorological ERA5 reanalysis dataset to simulate River Rhine’s streamflow and adjusted the model using parameters and actual discharge measurements. We focused on Lake Constance, a key part of the basin, but found issues with the model’s lake outflow simulation. By removing the lake module, we obtained more accurate results.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Erik Jan Schaffernicht, Patrick Ludwig, and Yaping Shao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4969–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4969-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a model-based reconstruction of the mineral dust cycle on the regional scale for Europe during the LGM. It establishes a link between the loess distribution in Europe and the prevailing winds during the LGM. In addition to the cyclonic wind regimes, it is the first to reveal the importance of the northeasters and easterlies for dust emission and transport. It shows that a regional weather research and forecasting model can more realistically simulate the LGM dust cycle.
Joaquim G. Pinto and Patrick Ludwig
Clim. Past, 16, 611–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The statistics and characteristics of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe are analysed for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. LGM extreme cyclones were more frequent and characterised by less precipitation and stronger wind speeds than pre-industrial analogues. These results agree with the view of a colder and drier Europe during LGM, with little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to the buildup of thick loess deposits in Europe.
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Florian Ehmele, Patrick Ludwig, Hilke S. Lentink, Fanni D. Kelemen, Martin Kadlec, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the flooding risk for Europe it is necessary to run hydrological models. As input for these models, a consistent stochastic precipitation dataset is needed. In the present study, a combined approach is presented on how to generate such a dataset based on dynamical downscaling and subsequent bias correction. Empirical quantile mapping was identified as suitable bias correction method as it led to improvements for specific severe river floods as well as in a climatological perspective.
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1749–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modelling. However, most studies focus on predictions at a daily scale, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use inputs of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Maria Staudinger, Anna Herzog, Ralf Loritz, Tobias Houska, Sandra Pool, Diana Spieler, Paul D. Wagner, Juliane Mai, Jens Kiesel, Stephan Thober, Björn Guse, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1076, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Four process-based and four data-driven hydrological models are compared using different training data. We found process-based models to perform better with small data sets but stop learning soon, while data-driven models learn longer. The study highlights the importance of memory in data and the impact of different data sampling methods on model performance. The direct comparison of these models is novel and provides a clear understanding of their performance under various data conditions.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall–runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions, we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we provide insights into how future heatwaves might spread, how they might persist for longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps us understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, and Carsten Proppe
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 113–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-113-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-113-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The West African monsoon is vital for millions but difficult to represent with numerical models. Our research aims at improving monsoon simulations by optimizing three model parameters – entrainment rate, ice fall speed, and soil moisture evaporation – using an advanced surrogate-based multi-objective optimization framework. Results show that tuning these parameters can sometimes improve certain monsoon characteristics, however at the expense of others, highlighting the power of our approach.
Alexandre Mass, Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Paola Formenti, Eva Pauli, and Julian Quinting
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 491–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-491-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the interaction between smoke aerosols and fog and low clouds (FLCs) in the Namib Desert between June and October. Here, a satellite-based dataset of FLCs, reanalysis data and machine learning are used to systematically analyze FLC persistence under different aerosol loadings. Aerosol plumes are shown to modify local thermodynamics, which increase FLC persistence. But fully disentangling aerosol effects from meteorological ones remains a challenge.
Tanguy Jonville, Maurus Borne, Cyrille Flamant, Juan Cuesta, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Christophe Lavaysse, Andreas Fink, and Peter Knippertz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3606, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical waves structure the atmosphere. Four types of tropical waves (ER, Kelvin, MRG-TD1, and MRG-TD2) are studied using filters, satellite measurements, and in situ data from the Clouds-Atmosphere Dynamics-Dust Interaction in West Africa (CADDIWA) campaign held in September 2021 in Cabo Verde. ER waves impact temperature and humidity above 2500 m, MRG-TD1 around 3500 m, and MRG-TD2 around 2000 m. Interactions between these waves favor tropical cyclone formation.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Markus Augenstein, Susanna Mohr, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
A grid-based analysis of lightning in Europe shows a reduction in thunderstorm activity in many regions. Moving away from a grid-based analysis, a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm was used. The results show a slight trend towards the occurrence of smaller, more separated convective clustered events, suggesting changes in the organization of convective systems. One reason for this could be the increased occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the last decade.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Clare Marie Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We created a new, publicly available database of the Top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the Top 50 storms for each input to their spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database, where possible.
Selina M. Kiefer, Patrick Ludwig, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Weather forecasts 14 days in advance generally have a low skill but not always. We identify reasons thereof depending on the atmospheric flow, shown by Weather Regimes (WRs). If the WRs during the forecasts follow climatological patterns, forecast skill is increased. The forecast of a cold-wave day is better when the European Blocking WR (high pressure around the British Isles) is present a few days before a cold-wave day. These results can be used to assess the reliability of predictions.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Zhenguo Zhang, Friedemann Wenzel, Shaun Shuxun Wang, and Xiaofei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-138, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution fixed asset model can help improve the accuracy of earthquake loss assessment. We develop a grid-level fixed asset model for China from 1951 to 2020. We first compile the provincial-level fixed asset from yearbook-related statistics. Then, this dataset is disaggregated into 1 km*1 km grids by using multiple remote sensing data as the weight indicator. We find that fixed asset value increased rapidly after the 1980s and reached 589.31 trillion Chinese yuan in 2020.
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We looked at how well the model WRF-Hydro performed during the 2018 drought event in the River Rhine basin, even though it is typically used for floods. We used the meteorological ERA5 reanalysis dataset to simulate River Rhine’s streamflow and adjusted the model using parameters and actual discharge measurements. We focused on Lake Constance, a key part of the basin, but found issues with the model’s lake outflow simulation. By removing the lake module, we obtained more accurate results.
Christopher Johannes Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Peter Knippertz, Tim Trent, Hartmut Boesch, Amelie Ninja Roehling, John Worden, Benjamin Ertl, Farahnaz Khosrawi, and Frank Hase
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1613, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West African Monsoon is the main source of rainfall over West Africa, and understanding the development of the monsoon remains challenging due to complex interactions of atmospheric processes. We make use of new satellite datasets of isotopes in tropospheric water vapour to bring new insights into processes controlling the monsoon convection. We find that comparing different water vapour isotopes reveals effects of rain-vapour interactions and air mass transport.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Sarah Quỳnh Giang Ho and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use models to demonstrate that even small flood reservoirs – which capture water to avoid floods downstream – can be repurposed to release water in drier conditions without affecting their ability to protect against floods. By capturing water and releasing once water levels are low, we show that reservoirs can greatly increase water available in drought. Having more water coming in, however, is not necessarily better for drought protection.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, Carsten Proppe, and John H. Marsham
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 511–536, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics within the West African monsoon system by analyzing the impact of specific model parameters on its characteristics. Employing surrogate models, we identified critical factors such as the entrainment rate and the fall velocity of ice. Precise definition of these parameters in weather models could improve forecast accuracy, thus enabling better strategies to manage and reduce the impact of weather events.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Maurus Borne, Peter Knippertz, Martin Weissmann, Benjamin Witschas, Cyrille Flamant, Rosimar Rios-Berrios, and Peter Veals
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 561–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the quality of Aeolus wind measurements over the tropical Atlantic. The results identified the accuracy and precision of the Aeolus wind measurements and the potential source of errors. For instance, the study revealed atmospheric conditions that can deteriorate the measurement quality, such as weaker laser signal in cloudy or dusty conditions, and confirmed the presence of an orbital-dependant bias. These results can help to improve the Aeolus wind measurement algorithm.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Valerian Hahn, Ralf Meerkötter, Christiane Voigt, Sonja Gisinger, Daniel Sauer, Valéry Catoire, Volker Dreiling, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Stefan Kaufmann, Jonas Kleine, Peter Knippertz, Manuel Moser, Philip Rosenberg, Hans Schlager, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, and Jonathan Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8515–8530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During the DACCIWA campaign in West Africa, we found a 35 % increase in the cloud droplet concentration that formed in a polluted compared with a less polluted environment and a decrease of 17 % in effective droplet diameter. Radiative transfer simulations, based on the measured cloud properties, reveal that these low-level polluted clouds radiate only 2.6 % more energy back to space, compared with a less polluted cloud. The corresponding additional decrease in temperature is rather small.
Uwe Ehret and Pankaj Dey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2591–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the
c-u-curvemethod to characterize dynamical (time-variable) systems of all kinds.
Uis for uncertainty and expresses how well a system can be predicted in a given period of time.
Cis for complexity and expresses how predictability differs between different periods, i.e. how well predictability itself can be predicted. The method helps to better classify and compare dynamical systems across a wide range of disciplines, thus facilitating scientific collaboration.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Axel Seifert, Vanessa Bachmann, Florian Filipitsch, Jochen Förstner, Christian M. Grams, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Julian Quinting, Anika Rohde, Heike Vogel, Annette Wagner, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6409–6430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mineral dust can lead to the formation of cirrus clouds. Dusty cirrus clouds lead to a reduction in solar radiation at the surface and, hence, a reduced photovoltaic power generation. Current weather prediction systems are not able to predict this interaction between mineral dust and cirrus clouds. We have developed a new physical description of the formation of dusty cirrus clouds. Overall we can show a considerable improvement in the forecast quality of clouds and radiation.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide evidence that biogeophysical effects of afforestation can counteract the favorable biogeochemical climate effect of reduced CO2 concentrations. By changing the land surface characteristics, afforestation reduces vegetation surface temperatures, resulting in a reduced outgoing longwave radiation in summer, although CO2 concentrations are reduced. Since forests additionally absorb a lot of solar radiation due to their dark surfaces, afforestation has a total warming effect.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Moritz Zemann, Roderick van der Linden, Dan Trinh Cong, Duong Hoang Thai Vu, Nguyet Minh Nguyen, Frank Seidel, Peter Oberle, Franz Nestmann, and Andreas H. Fink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1447, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates the possibility to predict wave heights close to the coast of the Mekong Delta based on long time climate model wave heights which are only availabe offshore. Due to severe coastal erosion in the Mekong Delta with average land loss rates of up to 10m per year, the coast needs to be protected from wave attacks e.g. by breakwaters. To design a breakwater in the right dimensions for the local conditions, the knowledge of wave heights is essential to the performing engineer.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anneke Batenburg, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Cheikh Dione, Régis Dupuy, Valerian Hahn, Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3251–3273, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the summer monsoon in West Africa, pollutants emitted in urbanized areas modify cloud cover and precipitation patterns. We analyze these patterns with the WRF-CHIMERE model, integrating the effects of aerosols on meteorology, based on the numerous observations provided by the Dynamics-Aerosol-Climate-Interactions campaign. This study adds evidence to recent findings that increased pollution levels in West Africa delay the breakup time of low-level clouds and reduce precipitation.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Physical processes in weather systems importantly affect the midlatitude large-scale circulation. This study introduces an artificial-intelligence-based framework which allows the identification of an important weather system – the so-called warm conveyor belt (WCB) – at comparably low computational costs and from data at low spatial and temporal resolution. The framework thus newly enables the systematic investigation of WCBs in large data sets such as climate model projections.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Annika Oertel, and Moritz Pickl
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies novel artificial-intelligence-based models that allow the identification of one specific weather system which affects the midlatitude circulation. We show that the models yield similar results as their trajectory-based counterpart, which requires data at higher spatiotemporal resolution and is computationally more expensive. Overall, we aim to show how deep learning methods can be used efficiently to support process understanding of biases in weather prediction models.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Omaira García, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5273–5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The joint analysis of different stable water isotopes in water vapour is a powerful tool for investigating atmospheric moisture pathways. This paper presents a novel global and multi-annual dataset of H2O and HDO in mid-tropospheric water vapour by using data from the satellite sensor Metop/IASI. Due to its unique combination of coverage and resolution in space and time, this dataset is highly promising for studying the hydrological cycle and its representation in weather and climate models.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3031–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparisons with previous studies and yearbook records indicate the reliability of our model. The modelled results are openly accessible and can be conveniently updated when more detailed census or statistics data are available.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 561–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Elnaz Azmi, Uwe Ehret, Steven V. Weijs, Benjamin L. Ruddell, and Rui A. P. Perdigão
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1103–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1103-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models should be as simple as possible but not simpler. Simplicity refers to the length of the model and the effort it takes the model to generate its output. Here we present a practical technique for measuring the latter by the number of memory visits during model execution by
Strace, a troubleshooting and monitoring program. The advantage of this approach is that it can be applied to any computer-based model, which facilitates model intercomparison.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Gregor Pante, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, and Anke Kniffka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 35–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-35-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-35-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal rainfall amounts along the densely populated West African Guinea coast have been decreasing during the past 35 years, with recently accelerating trends. We find strong indications that this is in part related to increasing human air pollution in the region. Given the fast increase in emissions, the political implications of this work are significant. Reducing air pollution locally and regionally would mitigate an imminent health crisis and socio-economic damage from reduced rainfall.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Stephanie Thiesen, Diego M. Vieira, Mirko Mälicke, Ralf Loritz, J. Florian Wellmann, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4540, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4523-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4523-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A spatial interpolator has been proposed for exploring the information content of the data in the light of geostatistics and information theory. It showed comparable results to traditional interpolators, with the advantage of presenting generalization properties. We discussed three different ways of combining distributions and their implications for the probabilistic results. By its construction, the method provides a suitable and flexible framework for uncertainty analysis and decision-making.
Uwe Ehret, Rik van Pruijssen, Marina Bortoli, Ralf Loritz, Elnaz Azmi, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4389–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4389-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose adaptive clustering as a new method for reducing the computational efforts of distributed modelling. It consists of identifying similar-acting model elements during the runtime, clustering them, running the model for just a few representatives per cluster, and mapping their results to the remaining model elements in the cluster. With the example of a hydrological model, we show that this saves considerable computation time, while largely maintaining the output quality.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
Alima Dajuma, Kehinde O. Ogunjobi, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Siélé Silué, Evelyne Touré N'Datchoh, Véronique Yoboué, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5373–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A modeling study through COSMO-ART was used to investigate the implication of downward mixing induced by clouds in transporting biomass burning aerosols from central and southern Africa located between 2 and 4 km into the PBL over southern West Africa. Results showed that individual mixing events south of the coast of Côte d’Ivoire due to mid-level convective clouds injects part of the biomass burning plume into the PBL. 15 % of CO mass from the 2–4 km layer is mixed below 1 km.
Erik Jan Schaffernicht, Patrick Ludwig, and Yaping Shao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4969–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4969-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a model-based reconstruction of the mineral dust cycle on the regional scale for Europe during the LGM. It establishes a link between the loess distribution in Europe and the prevailing winds during the LGM. In addition to the cyclonic wind regimes, it is the first to reveal the importance of the northeasters and easterlies for dust emission and transport. It shows that a regional weather research and forecasting model can more realistically simulate the LGM dust cycle.
Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Frederic Burnet, Marc Mallet, Nicolas Maury, Aurélie Colomb, Pamela Dominutti, Joel Brito, Régis Dupuy, Karine Sellegri, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Cyrille Flamant, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4735–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents aircraft measurements of aerosol optical properties over southern West Africa. We show that aerosol optical properties in the boundary layer were dominated by a persistent biomass burning loading from the Southern Hemisphere. Biomass burning aerosols were more light absorbing that those previously measured in other areas (Amazonia, North America). Our study suggests that lens-coated black carbon particles were the dominant absorber for these biomass burning aerosols.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Joaquim G. Pinto and Patrick Ludwig
Clim. Past, 16, 611–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The statistics and characteristics of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe are analysed for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. LGM extreme cyclones were more frequent and characterised by less precipitation and stronger wind speeds than pre-industrial analogues. These results agree with the view of a colder and drier Europe during LGM, with little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to the buildup of thick loess deposits in Europe.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Peter Knippertz, Marco Gaetani, Julian Quinting, Sebastian Sippel, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3415–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are an essential but poorly understood element of Namib regional climate. Here, a satellite-based data set of FLCs in central Namib, reanalysis data, and back trajectories are used to systematically analyze conditions when FLCs occur. Synoptic-scale mechanisms are identified that influence the formation of FLCs and the onshore advection of marine boundary-layer air masses. The findings lead to a new conceptual model of mechanisms that drive FLC variability in the Namib.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 643–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-643-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake-affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. This study conducts such a comprehensive review for mainland China and aims to better serve the natural disaster prevention and mitigation cause in China.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-385, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-385, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparison with previous studies and yearbook records indicates the reliability of our model. The model is flexible for updates when more detailed census or statistics data are available, and it can be conveniently combined with hazard data and vulnerability information for risk assessment.
Sophie L. Haslett, Jonathan W. Taylor, Mathew Evans, Eleanor Morris, Bernhard Vogel, Alima Dajuma, Joel Brito, Anneke M. Batenburg, Stephan Borrmann, Johannes Schneider, Christiane Schulz, Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Peter Knippertz, Régis Dupuy, Alfons Schwarzenböck, Daniel Sauer, Cyrille Flamant, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15217–15234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Three aircraft datasets from the DACCIWA campaign in summer 2016 are used here to show there is a background mass of pollution present in the lower atmosphere in southern West Africa. We suggest that this likely comes from biomass burning in central and southern Africa, which has been carried into the region over the Atlantic Ocean. This would have a negative health impact on populations living near the coast and may alter the impact of growing city emissions on cloud formation and the monsoon.
Cristina Primo, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hendrik Feldmann, Naveed Akhtar, and Bodo Ahrens
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5077–5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5077-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5077-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate model over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. We run a simulation for the complete 20th century with a spatial resolution of about 25 km to show that the system is stable and the benefit of coupling.
Karmen Babić, Norbert Kalthoff, Bianca Adler, Julian F. Quinting, Fabienne Lohou, Cheikh Dione, and Marie Lothon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13489–13506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13489-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13489-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates differences in atmospheric conditions between nights with and without low-level stratus clouds (LLCs) over southern West Africa. We use high-quality observations collected during 2016 summer monsoon season and the ERA5 reanalysis data set. Our results show that the formation of LLCs depends on the interplay between the onset time and strength of the nocturnal low-level jet, horizontal cold-air advection, and the overall moisture level in the whole region.
Ralf Loritz, Axel Kleidon, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Uwe Ehret, Hoshin Gupta, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3807–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we develop a topographic index explaining hydrological similarity within a energy-centered framework, with the observation that the majority of potential energy is dissipated when rainfall becomes runoff.
Malte Neuper and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3711–3733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3711-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3711-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we apply a data-driven approach to quantitatively estimate precipitation using weather radar data. The method is based on information theory concepts. It uses predictive relations expressed by empirical discrete probability distributions, which are directly derived from data rather than the standard deterministic functions.
Jonathan W. Taylor, Sophie L. Haslett, Keith Bower, Michael Flynn, Ian Crawford, James Dorsey, Tom Choularton, Paul J. Connolly, Valerian Hahn, Christiane Voigt, Daniel Sauer, Régis Dupuy, Joel Brito, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Thierry Bourriane, Cyrielle Denjean, Phil Rosenberg, Cyrille Flamant, James D. Lee, Adam R. Vaughan, Peter G. Hill, Barbara Brooks, Valéry Catoire, Peter Knippertz, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8503–8522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level clouds cover a wide area of southern West Africa (SWA) and play an important role in the region's climate, reflecting sunlight away from the surface. We performed aircraft measurements of aerosols and clouds over SWA during the 2016 summer monsoon and found pollution, and polluted clouds, across the whole region. Smoke from biomass burning in Central Africa is transported to West Africa, causing a polluted background which limits the effect of local pollution on cloud properties.
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
Jessica Zordan, Anton J. Schleiss, and Mário J. Franca
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 377–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-377-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-377-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of buoyancy and bottom slope on the runout and entrainment capacity of experimentally reproduced saline gravity currents is studied. The shape of the current is modified due to the entrainment of ambient water, particularly within the body region. For steep slopes, two opposite mechanisms of mass exchange are identified: the current entrainment of water from the upper surface due to the enhanced friction at the interface and the head feeding by a rear-fed current.
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1083–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited timescale with meteorological observations and an inhomogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrains. In this study a spatially high resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but is transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations is found.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Florian Ehmele, Patrick Ludwig, Hilke S. Lentink, Fanni D. Kelemen, Martin Kadlec, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the flooding risk for Europe it is necessary to run hydrological models. As input for these models, a consistent stochastic precipitation dataset is needed. In the present study, a combined approach is presented on how to generate such a dataset based on dynamical downscaling and subsequent bias correction. Empirical quantile mapping was identified as suitable bias correction method as it led to improvements for specific severe river floods as well as in a climatological perspective.
Stephanie Thiesen, Paul Darscheid, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1015–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1015-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1015-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a data-driven approach created to explore the full information of data sets, avoiding parametric assumptions. The evaluations are based on Information Theory concepts, introducing an objective measure of information and uncertainty. The approach was applied to automatically identify rainfall-runoff events in discharge time series, however it is generic enough to be adapted to other practical applications.
Anke Kniffka, Peter Knippertz, and Andreas H. Fink
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1623–1647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1623-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1623-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The role of low-level clouds in the southern West Africa (SWA) energy balance and the West African monsoon system is assessed via targeted sensitivity studies with the NWP model ICON. We show for the first time that rainfall over SWA depends logarithmically on the optical thickness of low clouds, as these control the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer, vertical stability and finally convection. Small variations in clouds or aerosol have a substantial impact on precipitation.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Volker Dreiling, Andreas Fink, Corinne Jambert, Norbert Kalthoff, Peter Knippertz, Russ Ladkin, Sylvain Mailler, Marlon Maranan, Federica Pacifico, Bruno Piguet, Guillaume Siour, and Solène Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 473–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a detailed analysis of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollutants over the Gulf of Guinea coastal region, using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign and modeling. The novelty is that we focus on how these two pollution sources are mixed and transported further inland. We show that during the day pollutants are accumulated along the coastline and transported northward as soon as the daytime convection in the atmospheric boundary layer ceases (16:00 UTC).
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Sophie Haslett, Peter Knippertz, Hugh Coe, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14271–14295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Water uptake can significantly increase the size and therefore alters the optical properties of aerosols. Our model study reveals that the high moisture and aerosol burden in the southern West African monsoon
layer makes it favorable to quantify properties that determine the aerosol liquid water content and its impact on the aerosol optical depth and radiative transfer. Especially in moist tropical environments the relative humidity impact on AOD has to be considered in atmospheric models.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-254, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. They are required for the estimation of fatalities and monetary losses due to structural damage in destructive natural disasters like earthquakes.
Cyrille Flamant, Adrien Deroubaix, Patrick Chazette, Joel Brito, Marco Gaetani, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Gaëlle de Coetlogon, Laurent Menut, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Rémi Meynadier, Philip Rosenberg, Regis Dupuy, Pamela Dominutti, Jonathan Duplissy, Thierry Bourrianne, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Michel Ramonet, and Julien Totems
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12363–12389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This work sheds light on the complex mechanisms by which coastal shallow circulations distribute atmospheric pollutants over the densely populated southern West African region. Pollutants of concern are anthropogenic emissions from coastal cities, as well as biomass burning aerosol and dust associated with long-range transport. The complex vertical distribution of aerosols over coastal southern West Africa is investigated using airborne observations and numerical simulations.
Angela Benedetti, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peter Knippertz, John H. Marsham, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Sara Basart, Olivier Boucher, Ian M. Brooks, Laurent Menut, Lucia Mona, Paolo Laj, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Alexander Baklanov, Malcolm Brooks, Peter R. Colarco, Emilio Cuevas, Arlindo da Silva, Jeronimo Escribano, Johannes Flemming, Nicolas Huneeus, Oriol Jorba, Stelios Kazadzis, Stefan Kinne, Thomas Popp, Patricia K. Quinn, Thomas T. Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, and Enric Terradellas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10615–10643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate service providers, and health professionals. This paper describes the advances in the field and sets out requirements for observations for the sustainability of these activities.
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Bianca Adler, Jonathan Taylor, Hugh Coe, Keith Bower, Sophie Haslett, Michael Flynn, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, Christoph Kottmeier, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9767–9788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Highly resolved process study simulations for 2–3 July are conducted with COSMO-ART to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effect on meteorological conditions over southern West Africa. The meteorological phenomena of Atlantic inflow and stratus-to-cumulus transition are identified as highly susceptible to the aerosol direct effect, leading to a spatial shift of the Atlantic inflow front and a temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition with changes in the aerosol amount.
Ralf Loritz, Hoshin Gupta, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we explore the role of spatially distributed information on hydrological modeling. For that, we develop and test an approach which draws upon information theory and thermodynamic reasoning. We show that the proposed set of methods provide a powerful framework for understanding and diagnosing how and when process organization and functional similarity of hydrological systems emerge in time and, hence, when which landscape characteristic is important in a model application.
Florian Pantillon, Andreas Wieser, Bianca Adler, Ulrich Corsmeier, and Peter Knippertz
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 91–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) was conducted during the winter 2016–2017 in the Upper Rhine Valley to better understand the formation of wind gusts during the passage of storms. The key instrument of the field campaign was a scanning Doppler lidar, which provides accurate wind observations along its beam with high spatial and temporal resolutions and within a range of several km. Results from WASTEX should help improving the representation of wind gusts in weather and climate models.
Sebastian Schwindt, Mário J. Franca, Alessandro Reffo, and Anton J. Schleiss
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 647–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-647-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-647-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain rivers can mobilize important amounts of sediment that endanger downstream dwellers and infrastructure during floods. Sediment traps are built immediately upstream of urban areas to retain hazardous sediment. However, many sediment traps retain too much sediment, which is then missing in downstream river sections, leading to a poor eco-morphological state. This study proposes an experimental research-based solution to improve sediment traps using a guiding channel.
Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Barbara Brooks, Gbenga Jegede, Bianca Adler, Karmen Babić, Cheikh Dione, Adewale Ajao, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Jeffrey N. A. Aryee, Muritala Ayoola, Geoffrey Bessardon, Sylvester K. Danuor, Jan Handwerker, Martin Kohler, Marie Lothon, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Victoria Smith, Lukman Sunmonu, Andreas Wieser, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2913–2928, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2913-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2913-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extended low-level stratus clouds (LLC) form frequently in southern West Africa during the night-time and persist long into the next day. They affect the radiation budget, atmospheric boundary-layer (BL) evolution and regional climate. The relevant processes governing their formation and dissolution are not fully understood. Thus, a field campaign was conducted in summer 2016, which provided a comprehensive data set for process studies, specifically of interactions between LLC and BL conditions.
Joel Brito, Evelyn Freney, Pamela Dominutti, Agnes Borbon, Sophie L. Haslett, Anneke M. Batenburg, Aurelie Colomb, Regis Dupuy, Cyrielle Denjean, Frederic Burnet, Thierry Bourriane, Adrien Deroubaix, Karine Sellegri, Stephan Borrmann, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, and Alfons Schwarzenboeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This work focuses on sources of submicron aerosol particles over southern West Africa (SWA). Results have shown that isoprene, a gas-phase compound of biogenic origin, is responsible for roughly 25 % of the organic aerosol (OA) loading, under most background or urban plumes alike. This fraction represents a lower estimate from the biogenic contribution in this fairly polluted region. This work sheds light upon the role of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on the pollution burden over SWA.
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
Philipp Gasch, Daniel Rieger, Carolin Walter, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Peter Knippertz, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13573–13604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents simulations of a severe dust event in the Eastern Mediterranean with a weather prediction model using very high spatial resolution. Due to the high resolution, the small-scale features of the event are captured in great detail. Consequently, the previously erroneous forecast of the event is improved drastically. In addition, the interaction of mineral dust with radiation inside the model has been included as a part of this work and is presented here.
Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Ulrich Corsmeier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795–1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Adrien Deroubaix, Eleanor Morris, Flore Tocquer, Mat J. Evans, Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Christophe Lavaysse, Celine Mari, John H. Marsham, Rémi Meynadier, Abalo Affo-Dogo, Titike Bahaga, Fabien Brosse, Konrad Deetz, Ridha Guebsi, Issaou Latifou, Marlon Maranan, Philip D. Rosenberg, and Andreas Schlueter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10893–10918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In June–July 2016 DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa), a large, EU-funded European–African project, organised an international field campaign in densely populated southern West Africa, including measurements from ground sites, research aircraft, weather balloons and urban sites. This paper gives an overview of the atmospheric evolution during this period focusing on meteorological (precipitation, cloudiness, winds) and composition (gases, particles) aspects.
Marleen C. de Ruiter, Philip J. Ward, James E. Daniell, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides cross-discipline lessons for earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment methods by comparing indicators used in both fields. It appears that there is potential for improvement of these methods that can be obtained for both earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment indicators. This increased understanding is beneficial for both scientists as well as practitioners working with earthquake and/or flood vulnerability assessment methods.
Susanna Mohr, Michael Kunz, Alexandra Richter, and Bodo Ruck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 957–969, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-957-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-957-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the small-scale and non-stationary nature of the convective wind gusts usually associated with thunderstorms, there is a considerable lack of knowledge regarding their characteristics and statistics. Thus, we investigated the temporal and spatial distribution, intensity, and return values of those wind events in Germany. The study constitutes a fundamental addition to an improved understanding of convective wind gusts and serves as basis for further risk assessments.
Alberto Caldas-Álvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Olivier Bock
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 157–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of the atmospheric moisture distribution in weather and climate prediction models has been identified as a source of error in the representation of heavy precipitation events. This research work shows the relevance of overcoming deficiencies in the representation of the moisture content in the vertical direction, even after assimilating humidity data for a case study characteristic of the western Mediterranean by early autumn.
Simon Paul Seibert, Conrad Jackisch, Uwe Ehret, Laurent Pfister, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2817–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2817-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2817-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff production mechanisms and their corresponding physiographic controls continue to pose major research challenges in catchment hydrology. We propose innovative data-driven diagnostic signatures for overcoming the prevailing status quo in inter-comparison studies. Specifically, we present dimensionless double mass curves which allow us to infer information on runoff generation at the seasonal and annual timescales. The method is based on commonly available data.
David Piper, Michael Kunz, Florian Ehmele, Susanna Mohr, Bernhard Mühr, Andreas Kron, and James Daniell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2835–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, 2016
Simon Paul Seibert, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3745–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
While the assessment of "vertical" (magnitude) errors of streamflow simulations is standard practice, "horizontal" (timing) errors are rarely considered. To assess their role, we propose a method to quantify both errors simultaneously which closely resembles visual hydrograph comparison. Our results reveal differences in time–magnitude error statistics for different flow conditions. The proposed method thus offers novel perspectives for model diagnostics and evaluation.
S. Mieruch, H. Feldmann, G. Schädler, C.-J. Lenz, S. Kothe, and C. Kottmeier
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2983–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2983-2014, 2014
E. Zehe, U. Ehret, L. Pfister, T. Blume, B. Schröder, M. Westhoff, C. Jackisch, S. J. Schymanski, M. Weiler, K. Schulz, N. Allroggen, J. Tronicke, L. van Schaik, P. Dietrich, U. Scherer, J. Eccard, V. Wulfmeyer, and A. Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4635–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, 2014
S. Fiedler, K. Schepanski, P. Knippertz, B. Heinold, and I. Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8983–9000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, 2014
S. M. Cowie, P. Knippertz, and J. H. Marsham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8579–8597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8579-2014, 2014
M. K. Karremann, J. G. Pinto, P. J. von Bomhard, and M. Klawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2041–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
E. Zehe, U. Ehret, T. Blume, A. Kleidon, U. Scherer, and M. Westhoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4297–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4297-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4297-2013, 2013
M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, and F. Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1913-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. Kleidon, E. Zehe, U. Ehret, and U. Scherer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-225-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-225-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Recent large-inland-lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: processes, causes, and mechanisms
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Dynamics and impacts of monsoon-induced geological hazards: a 2022 flood study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany
Mind the gap: misalignment between drought monitoring and community realities
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona, USA, case study
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Brief Communication: Rapid high-resolution flood impact-based early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr valley, Germany
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out and structural changes challenge water resources management of the German capital Berlin. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater and surface water. Analysing the impacts of the 2018–2023 drought helps to address water-related challenges and implement effective measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5 m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced by urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 monsoon in Pakistan's Swat River basin brought record rainfall, exceeding averages by 7–8%, triggering catastrophic debris flows and floods. Key factors include extreme rainfall, deforestation, and steep slopes. Fieldwork, remote sensing, and simulations highlight land degradation's role in intensifying floods. Recommendations include reforestation, early warning systems, and land use reforms to protect communities and reduce future risks
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Post-wildfire flooding and debris are dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-139, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D, a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions, ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in Central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the past decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory was only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps better prepare for future extreme floods.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Cited articles
Aalbers, E. E., van Meijgaard, E., Lenderink, G., de Vries, H., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-954, 2022. a
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 228–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. a, b
Amante, C. and Eakins, B.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, National Geophysical Data Center [data set], NESDIS, NOAA, US Dept, Commerce, Boulder, CO, USA, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2008. a
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and Reinhardt, T.: Operational Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction with the COSMO Model: Description and Sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011. a
Ban, N., Caillaud, C., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Sobolowski, S., Adinolfi, M., Ahrens, B., Alias, A., Anders, I., Bastin, S., Belušić, D., Berthou, S.,
Brisson, E., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S. C., Christensen, O. B., Fernández, J.,
Fita, L., Frisius, T., Gašparac, G., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Haugen, J. E.,
Hodnebrog, Ø., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K.,
Lavin-Gullon, A., Lenderink, G., Leutwyler, D., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D.,
Mercogliano, P., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Raffa, M., Remedio, A. R., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Srnec, L., Steensen, B. M., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., de Vries, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zander, M. J.: The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 57, 275–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w, 2021. a
Bardossy, A., Seidel, J., Eisele, M., El Hachem, A., Kunstmann, H., Chwala, C., Graf, M., Demuth, N., and Gerlach, N.: Verbesserung der Abschätzung von Gebietsniederschlägen mittels opportunistischer Niederschlagsmessungen am Beispiel des Ahr-Hochwassers im Juli 2021, Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 66, 208–214, https://www.hywa-online.de/download/hywa-heft-4-2022/ (last access: 3 February 2023), 2022. a, b
Berg, P., Feldmann, H., and Panitz, H.-J.: Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data, J. Hydrol., 448, 80–92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.026, 2012. a
Best, J., Ashmore, P., and Darby, S.: Beyond just floodwater, Nature Sustainability, 5, 811–813, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00929-1, 2022. a, b
Bezak, N., Brilly, M., and Šraj, M.: Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59, 959–977, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831174, 2014. a
BMDV: Verkehrsfreigabe der Teilstrecke Remagen-Ahrweiler, Bundesministerium für Digitales und Verkehr (BMDV), Berlin, Germany, https://bmdv.bund.de/SharedDocs/DE/Artikel/K/unwetter-ahrtal-bahn.html (last access: 3 February 2023), 2021. a
BMDV: Informationen zur Hochwasserkatastrophe, Bundesministerium für Digitales und Verkehr (BMDV), Berlin, Germany, https://www.bmvi.de/SharedDocs/DE/Artikel/K/unwetter.html (last access:
3 February 2023), 2022. a
Brabson, B. B. and Palutikof, J. P.: Tests of the Generalized Pareto Distribution for Predicting Extreme Wind Speeds, J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 1627–1640, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1627:TOTGPD>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Caldas-Alvarez, A., Augenstein, M., Ayzel, G., Barfus, K., Cherian, R., Dillenardt, L., Fauer, F., Feldmann, H., Heistermann, M., Karwat, A., Kaspar, F., Kreibich, H., Lucio-Eceiza, E. E., Meredith, E. P., Mohr, S., Niermann, D., Pfahl, S., Ruff, F., Rust, H. W., Schoppa, L., Schwitalla, T., Steidl, S., Thieken, A. H., Tradowsky, J. S., Wulfmeyer, V., and Quaas, J.: Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022a. a, b
Caldas-Alvarez, A., Feldmann, H., Lucio-Eceiza, E., and Pinto, J. G.: Scale-dependency of extreme precipitation processes in regional climate simulations of the greater Alpine region, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-11, in review, 2022b. a
Cannon, D. J., Kirshbaum, D. J., and Gray, S. L.: Under what conditions does embedded convection enhance orographic precipitation?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 391–406, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.926, 2012. a
Chen, F., Janjić, Z., and Mitchell, K.: Impact of atmospheric surface-layer parameterizations in the new land-surface scheme of the NCEP mesoscale Eta model, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 85, 391–421, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1000531001463, 1997. a
Copernicus: Climate Data Store, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5&type=dataset, last access: 4 April 2023. a
Crosato, A., Grissetti-Vázquez, A., Bregoli, F., and Franca, M.: Adaptation of river channels to a wetter or drier climate: insights from the Lower Pilcomayo River, South America, J. Hydrol., 612, 128254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128254, 2022. a
Dalcher, A. and Kalnay, E.: Error growth and predictability in operational ECMWF forecasts, Tellus A, 39, 474–491, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v39i5.11774, 1987. a
Dietze, M., Bell, R., Ozturk, U., Cook, K. L., Andermann, C., Beer, A. R., Damm, B., Lucia, A., Fauer, F. S., Nissen, K. M., Sieg, T., and Thieken, A. H.: More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022. a, b
DWD: Open Data Portal, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, https://opendata.dwd.de, last access: 3 April 2023. a
Eekhout, J. P. and de Vente, J.: Global impact of climate change on soil erosion and potential for adaptation through soil conservation, Earth-Sci. Rev., 226, 103921, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103921, 2022. a
Ehmele, F., Kautz, L.-A., Feldmann, H., and Pinto, J. G.: Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Ehmele, F., Kautz, L.-A., Feldmann, H., He, Y., Kadlec, M., Kelemen, F. D., Lentink, H. S., Ludwig, P., Manful, D., and Pinto, J. G.: Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Erftverband: Erftverband – Wasserwirtschft für unsere Region, Bergheim, Germany, https://www.erftverband.de, last access:
4 April 2023. a
Feldmann, H., Schädler, G., Panitz, H.-J., and Kottmeier, C.: Near future changes of extreme precipitation over complex terrain in Central Europe derived from high resolution RCM ensemble simulations, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1964–1977, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3564, 2013. a, b
Feldmann, H., Pinto, J. G., Laube, N., Uhlig, M., Moemken, J., Pasternack, A., Früh, B., Pohlmann, H., and Kottmeier, C.: Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe, Tellus A, 71, 1618678, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1618678, 2019. a
Frei, C., Davies, H. C., Gurtz, J., and Schär, C.: Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe, Integrated Assessment, 1, 281–300, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018983226334, 2000. a
Früh, B., Feldmann, H., Panitz, H.-J., Schädler, G., Jacob, D., Lorenz, P., and Keuler, K.: Determination of Precipitation Return Values in Complex Terrain and Their Evaluation, J. Climate, 23, 2257–2274, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2685.1, 2010. a
Fuhrer, O. and Schär, C.: Embedded Cellular Convection in Moist Flow past Topography, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2810–2828, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3512.1, 2005. a
GRDC: Data Portal, Global Runoff Data Centre, Koblenz, Germany, https://portal.grdc.bafg.de/applications/public.html?publicuser=PublicUser#dataDownload/Home, last access: 3 April 2023. a
Grieser, J., Staeger, T., and Schönwiese, C.-D.: Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany, Meteorol. Z., 16, 553–564, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0235, 2007. a
Gumbel, E. J.: The return period of flood flows, Ann. Math. Stat., 12, 163–190, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2235766 (last access: 3 February 2023), 1941. a
Hackenbruch, J., Schädler, G., and Schipper, J.: Added value of high-resolution regional climate simulations for regional impact studies, Meteorol. Z., 25, 291–304, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0701, 2016. a
Haylock, M., Hofstra, N., Tank, A. K., Klok, E., Jones, P., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201, 2008. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008. a
IPCC: Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, in: Climate change 2021: the physical science basis, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf (last access: 3 February 2023), 2021a. a, b, c
IPCC: Annex II: Models, in: Climate change 2021: the physical science basis, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK and New York, NY, USA, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexII.pdf
(last access: 3 February 2023), 2021b. a
IPCC: Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, edited by: Shukla, P., Skea, J., Slade, R., Khourdajie, A. A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., and Malley, J., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA,
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexII.pdf (last access: 3 February 2023), 2022. a, b, c
Janjić, Z. I.: The Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further Developments of the Convection, Viscous Sublayer, and Turbulence Closure Schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 927–945, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a, b
Junghänel, T., Ertel, H., and Deutschländer, T.: KOSTRA-DWD-2010R. Bericht zur Revision der koordinierten Starkregenregionalisierung und-auswertung des Deutschen Wetterdienstes in der Version 2010, Deutscher Wetterdienst, https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/kostra_dwd_rasterwerte/download/bericht_revision_kostra_dwd_2010.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=6 (last access: 3 February 2023), 2017. a
Junghänel, T., Bissolli, P., Daßler, J., Fleckenstein, R., Imbery, F., Janssen, W., Kaspar, F., Lengfeld, K., Leppelt, T., Rauthe, M., Rauthe-Schöch, A., Rocek, M., Walawender, E., and Weigl, E.: Hydro-klimatologische Einordnung der Stark- und Dauerniederschläge in Teilen Deutschlands im Zusammenhang mit dem Tiefdruckgebiet ,,Bernd” vom 12. bis 19. Juli 2021, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany, https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/besondereereignisse/niederschlag/20210721_bericht_starkniederschlaege_tief_bernd.pdf;jsessionid=6B7BA54AE50F911B81899C3AC345C937.live21074?__blob=publicationFile&v=10 (last access: 3 February 2023), 2021. a, b
Kautz, L.-A., Martius, O., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., and Woollings, T.: Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022. a
Kelemen, F. D., Ludwig, P., Reyers, M., Ulbrich, S., and Pinto, J. G.: Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations, Tellus A, 68, 29288, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288, 2016. a
Kreienkamp, F., Philip, S. Y., Tradowsky, J. S., Kew, S. F., Lorenz, P., Arrighi, J., Belleflamme, A., Bettmann, T., Caluwaerts, S., Chan, S. C., Ciavarella, A., Cruz, L. D., de Vries, H., Demuth, N., Ferrone, A., Fischer, E. M., Fowler, H. J., Goergen, K., Heinrich, D., Henrichs, Y., Lenderink, G., Kaspar, F., Nilson, E., Otto, F. E. L., Ragone, F., Seneviratne, S. I., Singh, R. K., Skålevåg, A., Termonia, P., Thalheimer, L., van Aalst, M., den Bergh, J. V., de Vyver, H. V., Stéphane Vannitsem and, G. J. v. O., Schaeybroeck, B. V., Vautard, R., Vonk, D., and Wanders, N.: Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021, World Weather Attribution (WWA), https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfall-which-
led-to-severe-flooding-in-western-europe-made-more-likely-by-climate-change/
(last access: 3 February 2023), 2021. a, b, c
Lackmann, G. M.: The South-Central U.S. Flood of May 2010: Present and Future, J. Climate, 26, 4688–4709, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00392.1, 2013. a
Lenderink, G., Barbero, R., Loriaux, J. M., and Fowler, H. J.: Super-Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of Extreme Hourly Convective Precipitation and Its Relation to Large-Scale Atmospheric Conditions, J. Climate, 30, 6037–6052, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0808.1, 2017. a
Lenderink, G., de Vries, H., Fowler, H. J., Barbero, R., van Ulft, B., and van Meijgaard, E.: Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 379, 20190544, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0544, 2021. a, b
LFU: Landesamt für Umwelt Rheinland-Pfalz Mainz, Germany,
https://www.lfu.rlp.de, last access: 3 April 2023. a
Lorenz, E. N.: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model, Tellus A, 34, 505–513, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v34i6.10836, 1982. a
LUBW: Festlegung des Bemessungshochwassers für Anlagen des technischen Hochwasserschutzes, in: Oberirdische Gewässer, Gewässerökologie, 92, p. 91, Landesanstalt für Umweltschutz Baden-Württemberg (LUBW), Karlsruhe, Germany, https://pudi.lubw.de/detailseite/-/publication/29891 (last access: 3 February 2023), 2005. a
LUBW: Umwelt-Daten und -Karten Online, Landesanstalt für Umwelt Baden-Württemberg, Karlsruhe, Germany, https://udo.lubw.baden-wuerttemberg.de/projekte/, last access: 3 April 2023. a
Lucía, A., Schwientek, M., Eberle, J., and Zarfl, C.: Planform changes and large wood dynamics in two torrents during a severe flash flood in Braunsbach, Germany 2016, Sci. Total Environ., 640, 315–326, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.186, 2018. a
Ludwig, K. and Bremicker, M.: The Water Balance Model LARSIM – Design, Content and Applications, Institut für Hydrologie, University of Freiburg, Germany, Freiburger Schriften zur Hydrologie, Vol. 22, https://www.larsim.info/en/ (last access: 3 February 2023), 2006. a
Madsen, H., Rasmussen, P. F., and Rosbjerg, D.: Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events: 1. At-site modeling, Water Resour. Res., 33, 747–757, https://doi.org/10.1029/96WR03848, 1997. a
Magilligan, F. J., Phillips, J. D., James, L. A., and Gomez, B.: Geomorphic and sedimentological controls on the effectiveness of an extreme flood, J. Geol., 106, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.1086/516009, 1998. a
Maher, N., Milinski, S., and Ludwig, R.: Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 401–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021, 2021. a
Malitz, G. and Ertel, H.: KOSTRA DWD 2010: Starkniederschlagshöhen für Deutschland (Bezugszeitraum 1951 bis 2010), Abschlussbericht, Deutscher Wetterdienst, https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/kostra_dwd_rasterwerte/download/bericht_kostra_dwd_2010_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=11
(last access: 3 February 2023), 2015. a
Marotzke, J., Müller, W. A., Vamborg, F. S., Becker, P., Cubasch, U., Feldmann, H., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Marini, C., Polkova, I., Prömmel, K., Rust, H. W., Stammer, D., Ulbrich, U., Kadow, C., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Kruschke, T., Pinto, J. G., Pohlmann, H., Reyers, M., Schröder, M., Sienz, F., Timmreck, C., and Ziese, M.: MiKlip: a national research project on decadal climate prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 2379–2394, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1, 2016. a
Marx, S.: Die im Gebiet der DDR aufgetretenen extrem hohen Tagessummen des Niederschlages (1907 bis 1978) mit Angaben über die Ausmaße des starken Dauerregens vom 7./8. August 1978, Z. Meteorol., 30, 318–328, 1980. a
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S.,Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K.,
Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P. P.: he RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109, 219–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011. a
Michaelis, A. C., Willison, J., Lackmann, G. M., and Robinson, W. A.: Changes in winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in high-resolution regional pseudo–global warming simulations, J. Climate, 30, 6905–6925, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0697.1, 2017. a
Mohr, S., Ehret, U., Kunz, M., Ludwig, P., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Daniell, J. E., Ehmele, F., Feldmann, H., Franca, M. J., Gattke, C., Hundhausen, M., Knippertz, P., Küpfer, K., Mühr, B., Pinto, J. G., Quinting, J., Schäfer, A. M., Scheibel, M., Seidel, F., and Wisotzky, C.: A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2022. a, b, c
Munich Re: Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021 – Europe: Extreme flash floods with record losses, Munich Re, Media relations on January 10, 2022: Natural disaster losses 2021, Munich Germany, https://www.munichre.com/en/company/media-relations/media-information-and-corporate-news/media-information/2022/natural-disaster-losses-2021.html
(last access: 3 February 2023), 2022. a
Nones, M., Gerstgraser, C., and Wharton, G.: Consideration of hydromorphology and sediment in the implementation of the EU water framework and floods directives: a comparative analysis of selected EU member states, Water Environ. J., 31, 324–329, https://doi.org/10.1111/wej.12247, 2017. a
Otto, F. E.: Attribution of weather and climate events, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 42, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847, 2017. a, b
O'Gorman, P. A.: Precipitation extremes under climate change, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 49–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3, 2015. a, b
Pall, P., Allen, M., and Stone, D. A.: Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming, Clim. Dynam., 28, 351–363, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0180-2, 2007. a
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung, R.: A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015. a, b, c
Rauthe, M., Steiner, H., Riediger, U., A., M., and Gratzki, A.: A Central European precipitation climatology – Part I: Generation and validation of a
high-resolution gridded daily data set (HYRAS), Meteorol. Z., 22, 235–256, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0436, 2013. a
RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland: Ein Jahr nach der Flutkatastrophe: So geht es den Menschen im Ahrtal, RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland, Hanover, Germany, 20 June 2022, https://www.rnd.de/panorama/ahrtal-so-geht-
es-den-menschen-nach-der-flutkatastrophe-LEXREN3YXKOQEAK2FK4POQULRM.html
(last access: 1 February 2023), 2022. a
Regenauer, J., Böhm, M., and Gerlinger, K.: Nachrechnung des Hochwassers an der Ahr am 14./15. Juli 2021 mit dem LARSIM-Wasserhaushaltsmodell für Rheinland-Pfalz, Report, HYDRON - Ingenieurgesellschaft für Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft mbH, Karlsruhe, 2022. a
Roggenkamp, T. and Herget, J.: Historische Hochwasser der Ahr – Die Rekonstruktion von Scheitelabflüssen ausgewählter Ahr-Hochwasser, Heimatjahrbuch Kreis Ahrweiler 2015, edited by: Ahrweiler, L., 150–154, https://relaunch.kreis-ahrweiler.de/kvar/VT/hjb2015/hjb2015.47.pdf (last access: 3 February 2023), 2014b. a, b
Schädler, G., Panitz, H.-J., Christner, E., Feldmann, H., Karremann, M., and Laube, N.: Regional Climate Simulations with COSMO-CLM: Ensembles, Very High Resolution and Paleoclimate, in: High Performance Computing in Science and Engineering ' 17, edited by: Nagel, W. E., Kröner, D. H., and Resch, M. M., Springer International Publishing, 411–429, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68394-2_24, 2018. a
Schäfer, A., Mühr, B., Daniell, J. E., Ehret, U., Ehmele, F., Küpfer, K., Brand, J., Wisotzky, C., Skapski, J., Rentz, L., Mohr, S., and Kunz, M.: CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Group, Hochwasser Mitteleuropa, Juni 2021 (Deutschland), Bericht Nr. 1, Nordrhein-Westfalen & Rheinland-Pfalz, Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000135730, 2021. a, b
Schär, C., Frei, C., Lüthi, D., and Davies, H. C.: Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 669–672, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00265, 1996. a
Schröter, K., Kunz, M., Elmer, F., Mühr, B., and Merz, B.: What made the June 2013 flood in Germany an exceptional event? A hydro-meteorological evaluation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015. a, b
Seel, K. A.: Die Ahr und ihre Hochwässer in alten Quellen, Heimatjahrbuch des Kreises Ahrweiler, 40, 91–102, https://relaunch.kreis-ahrweiler.de/kvar/VT/hjb1983/hjb1983.25.htm (last access: 3 February 2023), 1983. a
Shepherd, T. G.: A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution, Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 28–38, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y, 2016. a, b, c
Shepherd, T. G.: Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information, P. Roy. Soc. A-Math. Phy., 475, 20190013, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0013, 2019. a
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., and Zenghelis, D. A.: Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change, Clim. Dynam., 151, 555–571, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9, 2018. a, b
Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T. G., van den Hurk, B., Hazeleger, W., Martius, O., Slingo, J., and Zscheischler, J.: Event-Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk, Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001783, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001783, 2021. a
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, J. G., Duda, M. G., Barker, D. M., and Huang, X.-Y.: A description of the advanced research WRF model version 4.1, NCAR Technical Notes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, NCAR/TN-556+STR, p. 145, https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97, 2019. a
Sørland, S. L., Brogli, R., Pothapakula, P. K., Russo, E., Van de Walle, J., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Bucchignani, E., Davin, E. L., Demory, M.-E., Dosio, A., Feldmann, H., Früh, B., Geyer, B., Keuler, K., Lee, D., Li, D., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Min, S.-K., Panitz, H.-J., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Steger, C., and Thiery, W.: COSMO-CLM regional climate simulations in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework: a review, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021. a
Stocker, T.: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working Group I contribution to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge university press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2014. a
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., and Allen, M. R.: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003, Nature, 432, 610–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03089, 2004. a
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.-P., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., and and Zwiers, F. W.: Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events, WIREs Clim Change, 7, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.380, 2016. a, b
Stucki, P., Rickli, R., Brönnimann, S., Martius, O., Wanner, H., Grebner, D., and Luterbacher, J.: Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868, Meteorol. Z., 21, 531–550, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2012/368, 2012. a
Szymczak, S., Backendorf, F., Bott, F., Fricke, K., Junghänel, T., and Walawender, E.: Impacts of Heavy and Persistent Precipitation on Railroad Infrastructure in July 2021: A Case Study from the Ahr Valley, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, Atmosphere, 13, 1118, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071118, 2022. a
Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Pithan, F., Semmler, T., and Jung, T.: The July 2019 European Heat Wave in a Warmer Climate: Storyline Scenarios with a Coupled Model Using Spectral Nudging, J. Climate, 35, 2373–2390, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0573.1, 2022. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Teichmann, C., Bülow, K., Otto, J., Pfeifer, S., Rechid, D., Sieck, K., and Jacob, D.: Avoiding extremes: benefits of staying below +1.5 ∘C compared to +2.0 ∘C and +3.0 ∘C global warming, Atmosphere, 9, 115, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040115, 2018. a
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 5095–5115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1, 2008. a
Tradowsky, J. S., Philip, S. Y., Kreienkamp, F., Kew, S. F., Lorenz, P., Arrighi, J., Belleflamme, A., Bettmann, T., Caluwaerts, S., Chan, S. C., Ciavarella, A., De Cruz, L., de Vries, H., Demuth, N., Ferrone, A., Fischer, E. M., Fowler, H. J., Goergen, K., Heinrich, D., Henrichs, Y., Lenderink, G., Kaspar, F., Nilson, E., Otto, F. E. L., Ragone, F., Seneviratne, S. I., Singh, R. K., Skålevåg, A., Termonia, P., Thalheimer, L., van Aalst, M., Van den Bergh, J., Van de Vyver, H., Vannitsem, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Vautard, R., Vonk, D., and Wanders, N.: Attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021, Clim. Change, in revision, 2022. a, b
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.: The Changing Character of Precipitation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1218, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205, 2003. a, b
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., and Shepherd, T. G.: Attribution of climate extreme events, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 725–730, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657, 2015. a
Trier, S. B., Parsons, D. B., and Clark, J. H. E.: Environment and Evolution of a Cold-Frontal Mesoscale Convective System, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 2429–2455, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<2429:EAEOAC>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Ulbrich, U., Brücher, T., Fink, A. H., Leckebusch, G. C., Krüger, A., and Pinto, J. G.: The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 – Rainfall periods and flood development, Weather, 58, 371–377, https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.61.03A, 2003. a, b
van Garderen, L., Feser, F., and Shepherd, T. G.: A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, 2021. a
Vergara-Temprado, J., Ban, N., and Schär, C.: Extreme Sub-Hourly Precipitation Intensities Scale Close to the Clausius-Clapeyron Rate Over Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL089506, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089506, 2021. a
von Storch, H., Langenberg, H., and Feser, F.: A Spectral Nudging Technique for Dynamical Downscaling Purposes, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 3664–3673, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<3664:ASNTFD>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Vorogushyn, S., Apel, H., Kemter, M., and Thieken, A.: Analyse der Hochwassergefährdung im Ahrtal unter Berücksichtigung historischer Hochwasser, Hydrol. Wasserbewirts., 66, 244–254, https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2022.5_2, 2022. a, b, c, d
Weckwerth, T. M. and Parsons, D. B.: A Review of Convection Initiation and Motivation for IHOP_2002, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 5–22, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3067.1, 2006.
a
Weigl, E. and Winterrath, T.: Radargestützte Niederschlagsanalyse und –vorhersage (RADOLAN, RADVOR-OP), Promet, 35, 78–86, 2009. a
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, in: International Geophysics Series, 91, 2nd Edn., Elsevier Acad. Press, ISBN 13:978-0-12-751966-1, 2006. a
Winterrath, T., Brendel, C., Hafer, M., Junghänel, T., Klameth, A., Lengfeld, K., Walawender, E., Weigl, E., and Becker, A.: RADKLIM Version 2017.002: Reprozessierte, mit Stationsdaten angeeichte Radarmessungen (RADOLAN), 5-Minuten-Niederschlagsraten (YW), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD/RADKLIM_YW_V2017.002, 2018. a
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O., Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its response to climate change, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z, 2018. a
WRF: wrf-model/WRF, GitHub [code], https://github.com/wrf-model/WRF/releases/tag/v4.3, last access: 4 April 2023. a
Wupperverband: Wupperverband für Wasser, Mensch und Umwelt, Wuppertal, Germany, https://www.wupperverband.de, last access: 4 April 2023. a
Zhang, C., Wang, Y., and Hamilton, K.: Improved Representation of Boundary Layer Clouds over the Southeast Pacific in ARW-WRF Using a Modified Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3489–3513, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05091.1, 2011. a
Zhang, F., Sun, Y. Q., Magnusson, L., Buizza, R., Lin, S.-J., Chen, J.-H., and Emanuel, K.: What is the predictability limit of midlatitude weather?, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1077–1091, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0269.1, 2019. a
Executive editor
I agree with the handling editor and suggest considering it as a highlight paper.
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint